We lost 70% of our player base half a year in

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Originally Posted by Iyrnthota

On a personal note, I think the player count look pretty good here if we're being honest.
There's been a clear upwards trend since Shadowbringers release, and it looks like we've actually managed to retain quite a significant amount of the new players that have joined since then due to EW release and pandemic factors, given that those things do tend to have quite a significant drop off in returning players after the "trend" has died down.

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I mostly agree with you - The main problem is we're stretched so thin right now that DC Travel is necessary to even play. I don't agree with how SE has handled server and housing expansion, they're playing the long game and looking at numbers, but it seems like they don't really understand what that feels like for a player who doesn't have a Home World on a popular DC. It's just an overall terrible experience for a lot of players.

Not much can be done there, they waited too long for QoL changes and then decided to give that DC even more housing. I just wish they would've put more effort into infrastructure, seamless instancing, and better housing a long time ago, it feels so archaic now and nothing ever happens. Stretching players across 300 hours of MSQ and requiring a you to do all dungeons and trials also doesn't help, if we keep this up it'll only get worse and it'll be necessary to run content with NPCs. We're expecting Roulette and Duty Support to carry the whole game at this point.

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Originally Posted by fulminating

Since all of NA congregates on aether, dc travel only strengthens this point.

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As someone who plays on Crystal and doesn't dc travel at all, I have no issues with queues at all. Even for old content. I can easily direct queue for things like Omega and the Ivalice raids without much problem with a max of 10 minute wait times unless I am tanking, which queuing for as a tank on a 24 man is painful no matter what.

I would also like to point out that people are calculating percentages all wrong. Percentages are not an aggregate type of data. You can't just take that -7% and that -13% and get -20%. That's not how percentages work. That 7% could be a larger number overall than the 13% dependent upon the starting number of the drop off. A proper calculation of a new percentage would be to take say the total number of people. Let's take a look at that overall reduction since January. Jan 2023 saw an average of 27,140.2 players and in the last 30 days had an average of 20,695.4 players on Steam. That is a total loss percentage of approximately 23.75% players since Jan. Where as what people are doing and just adding the percentages would get you approximately 25.69%. It's not a big difference, but the longer period of the numbers the bigger difference. Especially once you start adding in rises as well as falls. So if we were to go based off of the OPs assumption they are a bit off. As of the latest link they provided we had a total loss percentage of approx 61.483% since Dec 2021 of STEAM players only where as when they first posted their Steam numbers it was a total loss percentage of approx. 53.05% of Steam players.

As you can see percentages can change greatly dependent upon the numbers. So could this be indicative of a trend? Possibly, but as someone pointed out that even at peak numbers the Steam player base doesn't even equal the max capacity of a single datacenter. Meaning they are very likely a minority compared to the overall numbers, which could massively skew the numbers.

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Originally Posted by Vrankyl

As you can see percentages can change greatly dependent upon the numbers. So could this be indicative of a trend? Possibly, but as someone pointed out that even at peak numbers the Steam player base doesn't even equal the max capacity of a single datacenter. Meaning they are very likely a minority compared to the overall numbers, which could massively skew the numbers.

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You right, you right, I doubt bots use the Steam Version.


jkjk, but really.. >_>

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Originally Posted by R041

You right, you right, I doubt bots use the Steam Version.


jkjk, but really.. >_>

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I mean... you're not wrong. That said, it would also be good to point out that the overwhelming majority of the JPN player base doesn't even play on PC due to the gaming culture there.

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Originally Posted by Vrankyl

I mean... you're not wrong. That said, it would also be good to point out that the overwhelming majority of the JPN player base doesn't even play on PC due to the gaming culture there.

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Ok, this bit is wrong.

Yoshida has actually stated that even in JP, more people play on PC then consoles, they are just more controller users on PC over there.

You may not think it, but JP players want to communicate with each other more easily this includes voice chat.

Why are we continuing to entertain the mad ranting of someone who is either trolling or doesn't understand basic math?

if i remember correctly when SB come out, there was a huge server transfer or something like that and a lot of people like me couldn't play the game for months and ended up quitting the game till ShB.

Nah we didn't lose 70%. They just aren't actively playing cause they watch my stream as I cosplay as my character and do those Mukbang videos.

Tonight it will be me eating 600 Cheesesticks. It'll start at 5PM Mountain time and will end when I die of a heart attack. So probably...30 minutes?

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Originally Posted by Renalt

Nah we didn't lose 70%. They just aren't actively playing cause they watch my stream as I cosplay as my character and do those Mukbang videos.

Tonight it will be me eating 600 Cheesesticks. It'll start at 5PM Mountain time and will end when I die of a heart attack. So probably...30 minutes?

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Are they Home-Made, or we going to pizzahut or Arby's or something?

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Originally Posted by Renalt

Nah we didn't lose 70%. They just aren't actively playing cause they watch my stream as I cosplay as my character and do those Mukbang videos.

Tonight it will be me eating 600 Cheesesticks. It'll start at 5PM Mountain time and will end when I die of a heart attack. So probably...30 minutes?

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Damn, I might get in on that. Death by cheesesticks sounds really good right now.

Hold on, let me get my bunny ears.

Most people play on Windows Client or PlayStation, jfyi

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Originally Posted by Zanarkand-Ronso

Are they Home-Made, or we going to pizzahut or Arby\\'s or something?

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Yes.

/10 char

I found the types of content released this expansion just not engaging enough to play regularly anymore. The numbers don't surprise me.

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Originally Posted by Renalt

Yes.

/10 char

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https://www.redwolf.in/image/cache/c...ia-700x700.jpg

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

Ok now I know you're trolling, thank you

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Why? Be specific. Please provide dates and times I've logged onto my alts (who are level 80+ at the moment) and the roulette queues I normally queue for.

Your pattern of denigrating any post with "you're trolling" when you have no real argument has been noted.

lol to funny

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Originally Posted by ryouma17

steam only accounts for maybe 15% of the community

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While I largely don't agree with the OP premise, it still is a statistical data point and should give CBU3 some insightful information that should be considered.

It definitely shows a downward trend. Every expansion has doldrums and we're in Endwalker's.

Did you factor in Bot player kicks, over-Box'ing player's and ToS violators?

Your view is from the Outside -> In and does not allow for adjustments, or accountability, for things you do not know ( or should ).

A population can not grow healthy, without first having periods of contraction. I left EQ1, EQ2, WoW, SC2, etc. due to "The Grind"; I am a casual player and appreciate all the ancillary features of a game (i.e. non-End Game content).

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Originally Posted by Aueamil

Did you factor in Bot player kicks, over-Box'ing player's and ToS violators?

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So 75% of FF14 playerbase were bots and ERPers! We solved the mystery numbers, lets goooo!

yeah the game is dead. Hubs are ghost towns. Jobs are boring to play. No content whatsoever.

Why would any sensible person with decent IQ keep paying subs for this dead game?

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Originally Posted by DiaDeem

Most people play on Windows Client or PlayStation, jfyi

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As I said earlier, this doesn't discount the data provided by steam. CBU3 would be stupid to just ignore it.

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Originally Posted by Aword3213

yeah the game is dead. Hubs are ghost towns. Jobs are boring to play. No content whatsoever.

Why would any sensible person with decent IQ keep paying subs for this dead game?

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Thats a hard copium inhale right here, when we see the the trend. The question is, do you know why, or dont want to know.

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Originally Posted by Deceptus

As I said earlier, this doesn't discount the data provided by steam. CBU3 would be stupid to just ignore it.

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You can see in this thread, that many people dont understand the word "statistic" and think that for sure, for sure other client users are different.

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Originally Posted by SaltyDaddy

You can see in this thread, that many people dont understand the word "statistic" and think that for sure, for sure other client users are different.

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Statistics don't mean as much when you isolate them for one specific period.
You can go back and look at iyrnthota's comment 2 pages back to see the stats show FFXIV had a better retention % compared to previous expansions (as long as his numbers are right. I didn't fact check it myself)

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Originally Posted by SaltyDaddy

Thats a hard copium inhale right here, when we see the the trend. The question is, do you know why, or dont want to know.

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it's hardly copium. 70% is a huge number. If a game, especially MMO, loses so much 70% of player base, it's very unwise to keep subbing.

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Originally Posted by Thurmnmurmn

Statistics don't mean as much when you isolate them for one specific period.
You can go back and look at iyrnthota's comment 2 pages back to see the stats show FFXIV had a better retention % compared to previous expansions (as long as his numbers are right. I didn't fact check it myself)

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"statistics dont mean much" lmao

How to be clueless 101

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

"statistics dont mean much" lmao

How to be clueless 101

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The original quote is "Statistics don't mean as much when you isolate them for one specific period. "

it means a lot different when you read words out of context.

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Originally Posted by Aword3213

The original quote is "Statistics don't mean as much when you isolate them for one specific period. "

it means a lot different when you read words out of context.

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Oh it does, statistics dont mean much to them when it doesnt fit their narrative, better now ?

People like him and the few others that find excuses for this game losing players are on some serious copium, and it might be time to wake up that player retention in FFXIV is absolutely terrible, because the game is boring outside of the 1 week of content every 4 months, but hey, at least they're releasing mount remodels at full price every 2 or 3 weeks right ? And even better, if you want a different color, you pay at full price too now !

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

Oh it does, statistics dont mean much to them when it doesnt fit their narrative, better now ?

People like him and the few others that find excuses for this game losing players are on some serious copium, and it might be time to wake up that player retention in FFXIV is absolutely terrible, because the game is boring outside of the 1 week of content every 4 months, but hey, at least they're releasing mount remodels at full price every 2 or 3 weeks right ?

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I guess doomsayers and few others also think statistics don't mean much to them when it doesn't fit their narrative?

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Originally Posted by Iyrnthota

Percentage drop off from Expansion release to 1 month before x.4 release (assuming 6.4 May release):

HW - 43% drop off
ST - 60% drop off
ShB - 42% Drop off
EW - 65% Drop off

Percentage increase in player count between Expansion releases:

HW > StB - 215%
StB > ShB - 161%
ShB > EW - 231%


If you count that summer peak as an "expansion" then the numbers look like this:

ShB > Summer Peak - 163%
Summer Peak > EW - 142%

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OPs statistic might be correct. That's why I think people should stop subbing. 70% is a very serious number. It's beyond salvaton at this point. The game is barely defendable when it start losing 50% of player base. Let alone 70%

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

Oh it does, statistics dont mean much to them when it doesnt fit their narrative, better now ?

People like him and the few others that find excuses for this game losing players are on some serious copium, and it might be time to wake up that player retention in FFXIV is absolutely terrible, because the game is boring outside of the 1 week of content every 4 months, but hey, at least they're releasing mount remodels at full price every 2 or 3 weeks right ? And even better, if you want a different color, you pay at full price too now !

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If I recall, in another thread you went on about how you wanted proof about things before you believe it.
In this case, I'm using statistics as well. You are legit using the same argument as you say I am with fitting your narrative. In my case it's looking at the bigger time frame compared to this threads small sample.

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Originally Posted by Thurmnmurmn

If I recall, in another thread you went on about how you wanted proof about things before you believe it.
In this case, I'm using statistics as well. You are legit using the same argument as you say I am with fitting your narrative. In my case it's looking at the bigger time frame compared to this threads small sample.

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No, you are using the statistics to make them fit what you want, a 25% loss is still a 25% loss. Even if lets say the increase at the expansion release (example) was 500%, and then in 3 months the loss is 25%, it's still a 25% loss.

Because the 500% increase exists doesnt mean that losing 25% is all fine and that the game is in full health and is thriving.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

No, you are using the statistics to make them fit what you want, a 25% loss is still a 25% loss. Even if lets say the increase at the expansion release (example) was 500%, and then in 3 months the loss is 25%, it's still a 25% loss.

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Yeah and in comparison to previous expansions (which shows a trend of this), those losses are normal. Claiming the game is dead would imply our numbers are worst off than before but if we look at the same patch cycles in the past we see that's not true.

I never denied the game loss players. Again, that's normal when looking at statistics.

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Originally Posted by Thurmnmurmn

Yeah and in comparison to previous expansions (which shows a trend of this), those losses are normal. Claiming the game is dead would imply our numbers are worst off than before but if we look at the same patch cycles in the past we see that's not true.

I never denied the game loss players. Again, that's normal when looking at statistics.

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I never said the game was dead, someone else said that.

And no, losing players is not "normal", if the game had good player retention, there wouldnt be this amount of % losses every patch because everyone leaves it a week in the patch as there is nothing to do. Small losses would be fine, but not a 25% loss, that's not normal.

There is no changing yall's opinions and honestly I cba, enjoy coping, it's getting boring to repeat myself over and over and over and over again.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

I never said the game was dead, someone else said that.

And no, losing players is not "normal", if the game had good player retention, there wouldnt be this amount of % losses every patch because everyone leaves it a week in the patch as there is nothing to do. Small losses would be fine, but not a 25% loss, that's not normal.

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Laughing at anyone saying the game is thriving/doing well and saying they are using copium all the time does heavily imply you believe the opposite.

And yes this is normal in the perspective of using statistics to see player patterns.

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Originally Posted by Stormpeaks

I never said the game was dead, someone else said that.

And no, losing players is not "normal", if the game had good player retention, there wouldnt be this amount of % losses every patch because everyone leaves it a week in the patch as there is nothing to do. Small losses would be fine, but not a 25% loss, that's not normal.

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Maybe we can look at other games in the same genre as well?

Every sub based games loses a portion of players in each patches cycle. Is the percentage of player lose in FFXIV staying in reasonable range in each patch cycle? Do you consider it normal?

If the average percentage of player lose in FFXIV is somewhere in the middle or below other sub based games, do you consider it normal?

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Originally Posted by SaltyDaddy

You can see in this thread, that many people dont understand the word "statistic" and think that for sure, for sure other client users are different.

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I've pretty much ignored that argument in my own recent posts. Here's another chart from the FFXIV SteamCharts. Let's use this to discuss drops in the player base, shall we?

https://imgur.com/aSRZfBs.jpg

The Steam player base was relatively flat from 2014 through 2019. Note the 'peak players' point in mid-2018, 10,272. Move directly to the right to the end of the last dip. That number is currently 33,821. Conclusion? The game now attracts 3 times as many active players as it did 5 years ago.

It's an inaccurate conclusion though. Peak is fun to look at (that 95,102 peak in late 2021 is the release of Endwalker) but doesn't really tell us much about the actual number of players who play the game.

Average Players (the lower solid graph) is the number of Steam players who are playing the game, sampled at regular intervals every day, averaged for the month. I suspect that number is sampled every hour, leaving us with around 720 data points each month. Note that this number drops during non-prime time and rises during prime time.

The lower graph is the average player count over the years, February 2014 through current date. The value for left side of the chart is 3,577.8. The value for the right side of the chart is 20,391.4. Conclusion? The game now attracts 5.6 times as many players as it did 9 years ago. That is the definition of a game that is successful.

What is missing from this chart? An interpretation for the peaks and valleys. I can pretty much guarantee that the peak in 2017 was the release of Stormblood, the peak in 2019 was Shadowbringers release, the peaks in 2021 correspond to the Great Awakening and subsequent influx of WoW players looking for the Next Best Thing and the release of Endwalker.

Does all of this data tell us anything about subscriptions? Only that there are at least 5+ times as many players paying for a subscription via Steam than there were back in 2014.

I have been playing the game for quite a while now. Yes, I've had some times when I temporarily cancelled my subscription but I started the game in 2021 (finished Stormblood last night, loved it!)

If FF XIV is losing players, why do I still have a login queue every night? And it is the same wait time now as it was in 2021, give or take a few seconds...

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Originally Posted by Aword3213

If a game, especially MMO, loses so much 70% of player base, it's very unwise to keep subbing.

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As I have discussed in earlier posts, that 'peak players' statistic (used to indicate a 70% drop) is a worthless value when one wants to discuss the number of actual daily players who use a Steam account for their subscription.

The average of the 'average players' column over the last year is 23,672.59.

In March 2023, that value was 21,718.3, which is 91% of the average for the year. In December 2022 that number was 18,445.6, which is over 3,000 players less than March 2023! That is not a 70% drop using anyone's math.

So, stop writing "lost 70% of player base". The number is false. That argument is so bad that even basic statistics denies the claim.

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Originally Posted by Tahbitha

I have been playing the game for quite a while now. Yes, I've had some times when I temporarily cancelled my subscription but I started the game in 2021 (finished Stormblood last night, loved it!)

If FF XIV is losing players, why do I still have a login queue every night? And it is the same wait time now as it was in 2021, give or take a few seconds...

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That totally cant be because of the hundreds of lala bots under Limsa and every main city that are logging in and out 24/7, nah that cant be

Also the post below me is right.

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Originally Posted by Tahbitha

If FF XIV is losing players, why do I still have a login queue every night? And it is the same wait time now as it was in 2021, give or take a few seconds...

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The login queue is there because of how the login process works. The login server connects the players with their worlds in batches. So it is very easy to get a login queue even when the server is pretty empty.



Cheers

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Originally Posted by DPZ2

As I have discussed in earlier posts, that 'peak players' statistic (used to indicate a 70% drop) is a worthless value when one wants to discuss the number of actual daily players who use a Steam account for their subscription.

The average of the 'average players' column over the last year is 23,672.59.

In March 2023, that value was 21,718.3, which is 91% of the average for the year. In December 2022 that number was 18,445.6, which is over 3,000 players less than March 2023! That is not a 70% drop using anyone's math.

So, stop writing "lost 70% of player base". The number is false. That argument is so bad that even basic statistics denies the claim.

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I mean, the OP and many others support this claim. I just went along.

If a game actually lost 70% of players like doomsayers claim, the game is factually dead. Not dying, Dead.

So my advice to them is stop paying sub. This is a genuine advice. Don't pay your hard earned money on a dead game. Don't spend time and energy on a dead game. You can't revive the dead.

70% is a very serious number. Many contents in FFXIV wouldn't even doable. It will be extremely difficult to form Savage raid parties. Roulette won't work. Players will have hard time trading items because market died. S rank or even A rank hunts on current expac will be impossible to kill. Treasure map dungeons are impossible to do. The list goes on.

FFXIV will be unplayable in literal sense.