Atma disappointment social help thread. For those with no luck.

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Originally Posted by Bizniztyme

You're still statistically wrong, the more you do of something the more chances of you getting that something, doesn't matter what the percent of each time you do something is.

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You are misunderstanding the argument.

@Humster, Thank you for the well articulated post. You explained much better than I

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Originally Posted by AmyNeudaiz

You are misunderstanding the argument.

@Humster, Thank you for the well articulated post. You explained much better than I

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I'm sure you're the one misunderstanding. His articulated post, no matter how well it's articulated is wrong.

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Originally Posted by Bizniztyme

I'm sure you're the one misunderstanding. His articulated post, no matter how well it's articulated is wrong.

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Correct, its called the Law of Large Numbers.

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A general principle according to which under certain very general conditions the simultaneous action of random factors leads to a result which is practically non-random. That the frequency of occurrence of a random event tends to become equal to its probability as the number of trials increases (a phenomenon which was probably first noted for games of chance) may serve as the first example of this principle.

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Look it up.

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Originally Posted by Karnyboy

Gambler's Fallacy

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Yes, this is also tied to the law of large numbers. Probability does not change on a per attempt basis. The average of a LARGE number of attempts, however, will become more and more consistent, approaching infinity. That said, you can often get a relatively accurate probability, well before infinity.

A coin flip will not always be 50-50, sure. but across thousands of flips, it will average approximately 50.
A Dice throw will not always be 1/6 chance, but across thousands of rolls, the average value will be approximately 3.5.

Oh how wrong some of you are indeed.

Gambler's Fallacy

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Originally Posted by MythToken

Um no, thats statistically incorrect. The more you do, the greater your chance.

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I think this is the heart of the confusion here.

The way it is stated it can be misinterpreted. They are saying that doing more doesn't mean your chance PER FATE increases. You are saying (as you put in a later post) the more FATES you do, the more chanceS you have of getting an Atma, which is true. It's just still all at whatever minute probability they have it set to.

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Originally Posted by Karnyboy

Oh how wrong some of you are indeed.

Gambler's Fallacy

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You're talking about the chance of each roll, lets say it's a 5% chance, regardless of how many times you roll, you're still getting a 5% chance of getting what you're looking for. I understand that. But....

I'm talking about the number of times you get a chance of that 5%. If you're only doing 20 fates and someone else is doing 100 fates an hour, they are getting 80 more chances of getting that 5% drop rate thus the more you do the better chance of you getting the item. So statistically, Humpster original statement is wrong.

The odds of obtaining something increase with the number of tries but the odds of obtaining something does not increase the more you have done something. 50% will be 50% every time. 50% does not turn into 51% after you fail.

We are arguing two different things this is why I said you are misunderstanding

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Originally Posted by AmyNeudaiz

The odds of obtaining something increase with the number of tries but the odds of obtaining something does not increase the more you have done something. 50% will be 50% every time. 50% does not turn into 51% after you fail.

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Uh....i'm sure i explained that on my previous post. The argument is Humster saying it doesn't make a difference if you do more fates but It certainly does if you do more.

Am I the only person that sees the flaw in SE's philosophy?

They plan on increasing the drop percentage later. If the drop percentage was fair, why would they have a need to change it?

So, by their argument, it's only okay to have a terrible experience right now. Later, when it's not a top-tiered item, it's okay to make the experience more bearable once the people that have had enough of RNG decide to leave the game. Yeah. That makes sense.

Granted, I would consider it fair if they had the percentage increase for each class that gets it. So struggle through the first one, gain 3-5% high chance on your second, then another 3-5% on your third, etc.

I just think it's ridiculous to say it's okay to put your player base through this right now but not later. If you have to change it, maybe you shouldn't have done it in the first place. Respect your player base. I'm going to do this. Regardless of how difficult it is because other players have done it. I think it's a slap in their face to demand change. A thread like this that's here merely for moral support is fine. It gives people a good place to vent. But I'm tired of people standing up for SE, when SE isn't even standing up for SE. Actions speak louder than words and if their actions are changing a flawed system, what exactly are you standing up for and worked up over?

Its the idea that given a success rate of X, after Y attempts, the probability of have a success is Z.

For example, lets say that the drop rate for Atmas is 1% (X).
The simple math is 1-(1-X)^Y=Z

1-(1-.01)^10 = 9.56% chance of success after 10 fates.
Y = 100 fates, 63.3% chance
Y = 200, 86.6%
Y = 300, 95.1%
Y = 400, 98.2%
Y = 500, 99.3%... Like Yoshi said, it should take somewhere around 300 to 500 fates to get an Atma.

So um... yeah, those guys who "magically" get an Atma after a handful of fates, 10% chance of that, but it does happen.
Likewise people with less luck have to do hundreds to get into the more reliable probability ranges. That said, if you do about 500 fates in one zone, you'd better have an Atma... though I truly pity anyone who end up doing SIX THOUSAND for a single weapon.

Yeah, lets say its a lightning fast 3 minutes to finish a fate and get to the next one. That will take you... only 300 hours to complete a weapon.

And people ask why we dont like this system. :mad:

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Originally Posted by Khalette

snip Actions speak louder than words and if their actions are changing a flawed system, what exactly are you standing up for and worked up over?

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To you it's a flawed system, to others it's fine. Who's right here? Nooone. That's the problem with people on here. When someone doesn't have the same criticism of systems as others, they are labeled a defender or fanboy. NOOOOOO.....it's because they really don't have a problem with it or they actually enjoy it. I myself don't like the fact that you have to do this many fates to get atmas but I totally understand that there are people that do like it.

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Originally Posted by Bizniztyme

To you it's a flawed system, to others it's fine. Who's right here? Nooone. That's the problem with people on here. When someone doesn't have the same criticism of systems as others, they are labeled a defender or fanboy. NOOOOOO.....it's because they really don't have a problem with it or they actually enjoy it. I myself don't like the fact that you have to do this many fates to get atmas but I totally understand that there are people that do like it.

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So why are they changing it if it's not flawed?

"I've got a good thing going for me. So I'm going to change it so it can be a bad thing going for me." - said no one ever.

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Originally Posted by Khalette

So why are they changing it if it's not flawed?

"I've got a good thing going for me. So I'm going to change it so it can be a bad thing going for me." - said no one ever.

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Things change all the time. Sometimes for the better, sometimes for worse. Doesn't make the original a flawed system just because you said so. Did they ever come out and say, this system is flawed, we're going to change it. No, they said they may change it in the future to make it easier for people down the line, not becuase it's flawed.

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Originally Posted by Khalette

They plan on increasing the drop percentage later. If the drop percentage was fair, why would they have a need to change it?

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1.x Original relic had RNG on beastmen seals, of which you needed 9. As well as a rare drop in chocobo escort, behests, etc.

In 2.0 these were eased for accessability.

In 2.0 Zenith costed 900 myth, only 300 of which could be earned a week.

In 2.1 the 300 cap was raised to 450.

In 2.1 It still took 2 weeks to earn enough myth to earn 1 weapon.

In 2.2 the myth cap was abolished, allowing a player to earn enough myth for all weapons, even in a single week.

In 2.2 The atma/animus tiers have a large time sink built into them based on luck and large myth requirements.

In 2.3 the time sink is eased by making myth more frequent.

In 2.x the time sink will be further eased with atma probability being raised.


The key point here, just like the echo in highend content is that they are giving the people with more drive to progress, an opportunity to do so, before they begin making it simpler, which makes it less prohibitive for those less willing or capable.

This is a solid way of opening more content to players. It is a valid system that many other mmos regularly employ.

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Originally Posted by Duuude007

Relic


The key point here, just like the echo in highend content is that they are giving the people with more drive to progress, an opportunity to do so, before they begin making it simpler, which makes it less prohibitive for those less willing or capable.

This is a solid way of opening more content to players. It is a valid system that many other mmos regularly employ.

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Thank you, you explain it so much better then I can. :)

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Originally Posted by Bizniztyme

Things change all the time. Sometimes for the better, sometimes for worse. Doesn't make the original a flawed system just because you said so. Did they ever come out and say, this system is flawed, we're going to change it. No, they said they may change it in the future to make it easier for people down the line, not becuase it's flawed.

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I don't understand putting time and money into changing something that works.

Duuude, I understand the trend. I don't understand the reasoning behind the trend. In another thread you mentioned the EQ prismatic and how much it took into getting it. I started two expansions later and each step I did was equal to the steps my brother who had been playing since release did. I just think that they should stand by the bars they raised and I find it ridiculous that it's okay to put the player base through something only to change it later. It's the same reasoning that has ruined great video games.

"Oh you can't do it in 6 months. Here, we'll make a patch and hand it to you." Although RNG isn't handing it to you like dumbing down fights.

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Originally Posted by Khalette

I don't understand putting time and money into changing something that works.

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Uh.....maybe they feel that it's going to work better? It might not always work out because you dont know until you try it to see if it's better or not.

I wouldnt mind them atleast making it possible to purchase atma's via seals... I would gladly pay 30k or more seals for one atma. I have farmed seals to the point that I am purchasing everything I can just to get rid of the constant capping of seals each day of farming. Is that too much to ask? Is it "being handed" to me with it being purchasable? Sure there are other ways to get seals than fate grinding.. and some a hella lot faster.. but atleast I could then feel good about wanting more than one relic upgraded... maybe a new thread on this..

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Originally Posted by Bizniztyme

Uh....i'm sure i explained that on my previous post. The argument is Humster saying it doesn't make a difference if you do more fates but It certainly does if you do more.

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If you do 100 fates your odds of getting it in the next Atma is still the same as when you started. This is what I thought Humster was arguing. But I was wrong, I misread (I was at work skimming comments). I guess I did read the first post wrong and misunderstand the second post so I will admit to being the one arguing the wrong thing here but my point still stands.

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Originally Posted by ShinkuTachi

So understand, I'm not here to shoot down your points or anything. I agree with some of what you're saying. At the same time, I hope you're able to see the other side of things I'm pointing out.

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Thanks for your respectful post.

I will agree with you that the Atma system DOES help lowbies an newbies to level on the way. That's the great side about Atma's.
I like how SE is trying to do things to help lower players. So I do see that side.

But my main problem is, it's just boring y'know? Us people have busted our asses to get to 50, only for us to shimmy right back down to level 5 again
to stick around in one part for xx amount of hours for more or less.
Now I don't mind a grind, but not a grind that I don't know when I'll get something and see it myself that I'm about to get it.

Like when I grind for EXP and get excited because I'm about to unlock a skill, a place, or something cool. Atma's is anyone's gamble and it's not fun.
That's all there is too it. I really wish we had some alternative for Atma though. I just can't stomach FATE's like this anymore.
xD

It doesn't help lowies that much....quite a coincidence, last night a lowie was mad at all us 50s in Western Thalanan because we burned down the FATEs before he even got there, and if he did, he never got more than a couple shots and a bronze/silver reward.

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Originally Posted by Erudain

It doesn't help lowies that much....quite a coincidence, last night a lowie was mad at all us 50s in Western Thalanan because we burned down the FATEs before he even got there, and if he did, he never got more than a couple shots and a bronze/silver reward.

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It's better than it being completely dead because it use to be quiet in lower zones.
Still, it still sucks lol. I mean I can play the alternative and get Levithan EX Wave which I think is an equal to Animus
but Relic's will always have some sort of upgrade.
So when Novus comes out, Levi EX weapons will be moot. Hopefully, there will be an equal to Novus on too
maybe something that'll drop off Ramuh or something because
I think I'll stop at my Zenith and get my Wave thing soon. If you aren't having fun, then why continue?

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Originally Posted by Erudain

It doesn't help lowies that much....quite a coincidence, last night a lowie was mad at all us 50s in Western Thalanan because we burned down the FATEs before he even got there, and if he did, he never got more than a couple shots and a bronze/silver reward.

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To be fair, the only disadvantage a lowbie has is if they are on their very first class and haven't earned a chocobo yet. levelsync renders gear level advantages to effectively nothing.

As someone else posted in the GIF thread, this is how I think lowies see us 50s in low level FATEs:

http://imageshack.com/a/img839/3929/vphv.gif

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Originally Posted by Erudain

As someone else posted in the GIF thread, this is how I think lowies see us 50s in low level FATEs:

http://imageshack.com/a/img839/3929/vphv.gif

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lol!That is entirely how I feel. Then sometimes, it's the complete opposite where I'm the only one farming and it takes forever. :(

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Originally Posted by Luxx

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I really appreciate you being respectful as well Luxx, thank you ^_^

As far as helping to alleviate the boredom, as I was at that point as well, I would basically find something else to occupy my mind as I'm doing whatever piece of grinding I was doing. Basically something that I could give most of my attention to, while still giving the game enough of my attention to accomplish my task. Whether it's chatting with friends, watching something, putting on some music, drinking some booze, or whatever.

Personally, my gaming library is like 95% JRPGs, dating all the way back to the good ole days of the NES. So I have a lot of experience with grinds like this. These are the things I had found to help alleviate the tedium of farming and grinding; barring the drinking of course, I wasn't boozing it up as a child xD
But yeah, that's what worked for me personally.

If you haven't tried something like this as of now, I'd suggest giving it a shot. If you have, and it doesn't work, then I would have to apologize for not having another solution in mind; other than waiting it out for the inevitable elevation in drop rate.

And I do agree, personally, I don't find grinding or farming for crap drop rates fun. That's why I find things to distract me from the tedium; enough to help me keep my sanity, while still accomplishing the task at hand.

As far as FATEs themselves go, I have always kinda enjoyed them, because they are slightly reminiscent of campaign battles from FFXI (except not nearly as awesome). However, that's a different topic. xD

I've had some terrible luck with them. I got the first tree in about 4 hours, and after those first 3 each atma has been a 5+ hour ordeal.

I started seriously tracking my progress halfway through. The last 2 have been extremely painful. Atma of the Scales took me 196 fates, and approximately 17 in-game hours. It was terrible, because not only is C.thanalan a super lowbie zone, but I spend more time waiting and running than clearing the fates, and I got nearly nothing in terms of Company seals out of it. Atma of the Crab was similarly a 9+ hour ordeal, but at least this one gave somewhat decent seals. The rest have been between 3 to 6 hours.

It irks me because I invested 26 in-game hours for just TWO of them, while I have people in my FC that got all 12 in under 20 hours. Heck, we have someone that spend 34 hours getting 2 weapons and 4/12 atmas while I cant finish a single one. It annoys me that I am typically the top contributor in all this fates and that means jack when it comes to deciding if you get it or not. It annoys me that I have capped myth naturally twice waiting on this atmas and I can not advance because this game doesn't know how to implement smart RNG (Or a non-retarded quest line, for that matter).

While I can't play a ton on work nights, another 4 hours another no atma :(

And Kyros, I agree! I was running fates with someone yesterday, and we changed zones 3 times and she got 2/3 zones and I got 0/3. It's just disheartening.

Has taken me over a month to get all 12 atma pieces
But now working on getting my blm atma and taking even longer it seems.
Western Thanalan was awful, almost 2 weeks there (probably doing a few hours worth of fates there, every night)

I got one for yesterdays 4 hour farm ::cheer::!

I probably did 100 to 150 fates over a month some here some there... Never saw a single Atma. I was really starting to wonder if I was doing something wrong.

I've acquired 4 Atma in my last 2 hours of attempts.

RNG overload.

Best to just farm among friends not really caring if you get one. Chat away your farm time... Voice comm is good, most FC's have them.

If you have a strong hope to get an ATMA every time you enter a new fate you will drive yourself crazy.