LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

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Originally Posted by ZephyrMenodora

Unfortunately EW seems to have had the weakest post-expansion offering of content - none with very much lasting interest at all. Along with the extended amount of time it takes for them to release this poorly received content...and...here we are.

Data is data, and while we can try to explain away some of this - what the graph shows as a trend makes a lot of sense all things considered. Very curious what Q3's financials look like. I'm thinking they will have dropped, and we don't have much pre-Dawntrail hype at all at this point in time to make up for it.

If there isn't much to do until June 2024....this game is going to suffer in the meantime.



((Out of posts))

Well, people like me. I like data, and this is some data. The trends were "fine" and the financials were good, but this is showing a troubling trend. I respond well to data like this, far more so than various posts that get heated.

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Good joke.

This game can survive without any content release in probably a year now that it turned in to a poor version of Second Life. Mare / mods etc are running rampant and if you play in Crystal most people shared their tool freely and asks for it without any shame.

Modding in this game has go so far that people can even change models and mounts so other can see it.

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Originally Posted by Noumenon

Players who opt in to make the achievements public are of course more dedicated than the average player. So this data shows that the more dedicated players are more likely to "terminate" in Endwalker.

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What are you basing this on? Dedicated players can't want privacy?

I do think the forums have seen a definite decline since the World of Warcraft exodus.

It's hard to say what's the best player engagement statistic for stockholders to study, but I'm sure they have their own parameters. Lodestone could stand to be revamped such that such information is more readily available. I'd love to see LB publish data about forum usage, for the laugh.

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Originally Posted by TaleraRistain

What are you basing this on? Dedicated players can't want privacy?

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I think it would be a fair assumption to make that someone who isn't dedicated at all would probably not even realize you could opt-in to make achievements public in the first place.
I certainly didn't know that, until this thread.

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Originally Posted by MintnHoney

I think it would be a fair assumption to make that someone who isn't dedicated at all would probably not even realize you could opt-in to make achievements public in the first place.
I certainly didn't know that, until this thread.

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Why would that show dedication? They can't be achievement hunters if they don't go make them public?

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Originally Posted by TaleraRistain

Why would that show dedication? They can't be achievement hunters if they don't go make them public?

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Because it's also reasonable to assume that someone who's dedicated would look into features and sub-features, such as the ability to publicize their own achievement hunting and, potentially, connect with like-minded individuals for the game.

You're welcome to continue to think only in absolute extremes, of course. Don't let your feigned desire for non-extremes stop you from making your own for the sake of moving your own goalposts.

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Originally Posted by TaleraRistain

Why would that show dedication? They can't be achievement hunters if they don't go make them public?

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You can be an achievement hunter without making them public, it is just common to, for one simple reason: collecting websites ask you to so that they can track more of your achievements without you having to input it manually. It is also more likely for a veteran to be an achievement hunter because of running out of things to do after beating the MSQ and deciding to do that.

According to that graph... It says that the current player base it is a the level or ARR. Yeah sure. On ARR i didn't have any "Server is full" message when I logged. It seems just a random player trying to bait those who are convinced the game is dying to give them some kind of argument (yet ridiculous)...

If there is someone with accurate data is SE. You think SE is blind, but they know exactly how much people plays the game. They have statistics we cannot measure. And it is seems it is fine.

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Originally Posted by Xlantaa

That's is perfectly normal. Look at the overall, it is increasing.

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How much mental gymnastics do you have to do to see an absolute decline as an increase ?

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Originally Posted by Xlantaa

According to that graph... It says that the current player base it is a the level or ARR. Yeah sure. On ARR i didn't have any "Server is full" message when I logged. It seems just a random player trying to bait those who are convinced the game is dying to give them some kind of argument (yet ridiculous)...

If there is someone with accurate data is SE. You think SE is blind, but they know exactly how much people plays the game. They have statistics we cannot measure. And it is seems it is fine.

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You don't understand the graph do you?

Also the server is full message does not mean the server is full, the login are just done in batches so it's like a group waiting to log in instead of a single person at once

More curious to compare the eventual returning player numbers after dawntrail, to the returning player numbers after shb/ew tbh.
DT lacks the narrative weight of shb/ew and just from a gameplay perspective post-ew ran a lot of people off with its gross job oversimplification and the devs' commitment to more of that bland slop in the future. The dawntrail writers must be under immense pressure to crank out a banger, because dawntrail's story is gonna be carrying hard now that every job basically feels the same, every dungeon can be completed by a coma patient, and most additions to the game lack any replayability. Despite this pressure, they seem hella committed to the idea of dawntrail as a lower stakes sort of playful beach arc though, so who knows. Still need more info. I'm sure even if it's terrible people will just come back out of habit of course, but I want to see how many.

I mean I only have to stand outside my FC's house (Or wander around the housing districts) to realise this.

If Dawntrail is indeed patch 5.12 then Yoshida is piloting this game to it's grave.

Suddenly LuckyBancho is a good source of metric.

Months ago when debating about the popularity of FFXIV, LuckyBancho was regarded as invalid source.

How the narrative shifted.

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Originally Posted by Noumenon

Also, this is yet another piece of data that showed that the massive influx at the end of Shadowbringers was a fluke. The number of new players dropped sharply again in Endwalker.

We're now facing a massive decline in this game. We need CBU3 to shape up.

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This happens when the "play other games"-wish becomes true. :)



Cheers

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Originally Posted by Aword3213

Suddenly LuckyBancho is a good source of metric.

Months ago when debating about the popularity of FFXIV, LuckyBancho was regarded as invalid source.

How the narrative shifted.

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The narrative hasnt shifted at all. In the threads about concurrent players LB was designated a poor metric by the complainers because it counts someone who plays every day for 5 hours and someone who plays only once a month for 1 hour as the same amount. This thread isnt about concurrent player numbers, it's about how many people have done anything (that gives even just a single achievement) in a quarter.

It was probably expected numbers for an unprecedented content lull. The core formula has remained the same while the patches have pushed further apart.

Consider that Comedy tomes and current raid gear was released in May 2023, and there won't be any new upgrades for raiders until some time in Summer 2024.

This gear system only seems worse the further it is stretched. It's gonna be a year of nothing but catch-up and cosmetics.

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Originally Posted by Saraide

The narrative hasnt shifted at all. In the threads about concurrent players LB was designated a poor metric by the complainers because it counts someone who plays every day for 5 hours and someone who plays only once a month for 1 hour as the same amount. This thread isnt about concurrent player numbers, it's about how many people have done anything (that gives even just a single achievement) in a quarter.

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I would add that even the OP even temperate that in the first post. Also, while why the validity of the the specifics can be discussed, the methodology not having changed for a long time, it's good enough to see a general tendancy. It seems a far better metric than the steam stats (because most player don't play on steam, at least this one is the same for steam, not steam and ps5).

I'm not too surprised to see the big fall came with 6.3 and 6.4. that's when the people began to complain. Relics came with 6.2, and were a big disappointment for a lot of players. It's also when people began to complain about the msq. 6.2 did pretty well with it, but 6.3 failed to offer proper building to the 2 generals you fought. I think what we see here is what has become the main subject of discussion, the lack of proper long running content that incentives the players to actully play the game on the long term. I would add that's probably we saw a lot of people coming from wow leaving lately. XIV don't have the problem as wow, but it does have some.

Yet, this can still easily be reversed. More than ever, I think Dawntrail will be the things that will determine how the game future. Either they take the good lessons from EW, and achieve the game can continue to live, either we get another EW like patch cycle, and I'm not sure the game will survive it (more in term of being something inversted into. It will survive anyway, FFXI is still there. If Dawntrail continue this path, I can see the game get a 8.0, but I would not bet on a 9.0)

Once again, SE showed its over the top ability to miserably fail and shoot themselves in the foot when they have every card to be successful. It continues to amaze me. Their game was at his highest ever, and they ended doing the bare minimum. Great strategy once again.

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Originally Posted by Larirawiel

This happens when the "play other games"-wish becomes true. :)



Cheers

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These people really love paying 15$ to go play other games they spent money on

It’s so absurd to think about with how regularly defended the opinion is here.

ITT: MMOs lose a portion of players in between updates.

Also, the sky is blue, grass is green and we're seconds away from someone else posting another person's opinion as their own while making a thread about it.

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Originally Posted by Darkobra

ITT: MMOs lose a portion of players in between updates.

Also, the sky is blue, grass is green and we're seconds away from someone else posting another person's opinion as their own while making a thread about it.

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Funny how the same thing happened in the other expansions yet the game still continued to grow

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Originally Posted by Darkobra

ITT: MMOs lose a portion of players in between updates.

Also, the sky is blue, grass is green and we're seconds away from someone else posting another person's opinion as their own while making a thread about it.

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True. But such a decline like in EW was never observed.


Cheers

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Originally Posted by Ivtrix

Funny how the same thing happened in the other expansions yet the game still continued to grow

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But haven't you heard? It's dying! Been hearing that since 2014! And if I say it every single day for another 10 years and the servers eventually shut down, I'll have been right AND I'll have been warning you all for 20 years!

If only these people put as much effort into saving the planet, stopping deforestation, preserving wildlife... Nah, you all keep over-eating, avoiding physical work and posting every day that time ticks, clocks move and eventually a business will stop putting funds into a product. I'll be here with my feet up ready to warm my hands on the flames.

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Originally Posted by Darkobra

But haven't you heard? It's dying! Been hearing that since 2014! And if I say it every single day for another 10 years and the servers eventually shut down, I'll have been right AND I'll have been warning you all for 20 years!

If only these people put as much effort into saving the planet, stopping deforestation, preserving wildlife... Nah, you all keep over-eating, avoiding physical work and posting every day that time ticks, clocks move and eventually a business will stop putting funds into a product. I'll be here with my feet up ready to warm my hands on the flames.

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Gonna be real with you, forum posting takes a hell of a lot less effort than solving world wide problems and also isnt mutually exclusive.

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Originally Posted by Saraide

Gonna be real with you, forum posting takes a hell of a lot less effort than solving world wide problems and also isnt mutually exclusive.

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Bro true most of the time it takes me about 4 seconds to conceptualize what I wanna post here. Takes a little longer thinking about how best to de-escalate the current boarder dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

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Originally Posted by CNitsah

Once again, SE showed its over the top ability to miserably fail and shoot themselves in the foot when they have every card to be successful. It continues to amaze me. Their game was at his highest ever, and they ended doing the bare minimum. Great strategy once again.

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It really is amazing how consistently Square Enix wil shoot themselves in the foot and then stare blankly, wondering how it all happened. Case in point, FFXVI didn't sell enough to offset their previous losses (Avengers and Forspoken). Almost like releasing it as a PS5 exclusive meant drastically limiting their sale potential, especially when a massive portion of FFXIV players who might be interested are on PS4 or PC. They're doing it again with Rebirth. So I'll expect to read another "SE is disappointed Rebirth didn't reach sales expectations" a few months later.

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Originally Posted by ForteNightshade

It really is amazing how consistently Square Enix wil shoot themselves in the foot and then stare blankly, wondering how it all happened. Case in point, FFXVI didn't sell enough to offset their previous losses (Avengers and Forspoken). Almost like releasing it as a PS5 exclusive meant drastically limiting their sale potential, especially when a massive portion of FFXIV players who might be interested are on PS4 or PC. They're doing it again with Rebirth. So I'll expect to read another "SE is disappointed Rebirth didn't reach sales expectations" a few months later.

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My go to is to just blame the shareholders. They have no investment in the company and the product outside of the cash it brings in.

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Originally Posted by ForteNightshade

It really is amazing how consistently Square Enix wil shoot themselves in the foot and then stare blankly, wondering how it all happened. Case in point, FFXVI didn't sell enough to offset their previous losses (Avengers and Forspoken). Almost like releasing it as a PS5 exclusive meant drastically limiting their sale potential, especially when a massive portion of FFXIV players who might be interested are on PS4 or PC. They're doing it again with Rebirth. So I'll expect to read another "SE is disappointed Rebirth didn't reach sales expectations" a few months later.

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I'm still not over the Bravely Default release... In Europe, the game was sold out the day it released. It took them 4 month to make more copies. When most people that cared at the released stopped caring about the game. Then for Second, they went all the way out, but since most people didn't play Default because of their "strategy", nobody really cared. Seriously, everytime they find a new way to fail. It's mesmerizing.

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Originally Posted by ForteNightshade

It really is amazing how consistently Square Enix wil shoot themselves in the foot and then stare blankly, wondering how it all happened. Case in point, FFXVI didn't sell enough to offset their previous losses (Avengers and Forspoken). Almost like releasing it as a PS5 exclusive meant drastically limiting their sale potential, especially when a massive portion of FFXIV players who might be interested are on PS4 or PC. They're doing it again with Rebirth. So I'll expect to read another "SE is disappointed Rebirth didn't reach sales expectations" a few months later.

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16’s release wasn’t so much because of the PS5 it’s because squares internal numbers for acceptable sales is a range that has completely unrealistic maximums

Like say (and I’m making up numbers here)

16 needs to sell 5 million to break even, there are 40 million PS5’s in circulation right now, square would have put its “acceptable range” at something stupid like 6 million-37 million as if selling to over half of the total number of PS5’s is even a remotely realistic stat

Then they will release a stupid press conference saying “it didn’t quite live up to expectations” meaning it didn’t reach the 37 million, even if it did reach the 6 million

So basically square has FAILURES (avengers) and “failures”, nothing ever meets their projections

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Originally Posted by Sigma5

That graph is pure gold. mmmm, delicious shareholder tears.

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Shareholders aren't shedding any tears because of the Digital Entertainment - MMO division. Net sales numbers tell a different story from the one being depicted in this thread.

Net Sales by Fiscal Year (1 April through 31 March)

FY2013/3 Full Year - 11.1 billion yen (DQX launched)
FY2014/3 Full Year - 20.0 billion yen (ARR)
FY2015/3 Full Year - 23.3 billion yen (PS4 version of ARR released)
FY2016/3 Full Year - 31.6 billion yen (Heavensward released)
FY2017/3 Full Year - 22.7 billion yen
FY2018/3 Full Year - 31.8 billion yen (Stormblood released)
FY2019/3 Full Year - 27.1 billion yen
FY2020/3 Full Year - 40.1 billion yen (Shadowbringers released)
FY2021/3 Full Year - 39.8 billion yen
FY2022/3 Full Year - 62.2 billion yen (Endwalker released)
FY2023/3 Full Year - 53.3 billion yen

There is a drop the year after an expansion release. FY2023/3 (ended 31 March 2023) still had higher net sales than FY2021/3 (second fiscal year after Shadowbringers release).

Note that the Digital Entertainment - MMO division includes Final Fantasy 11, DragonQuest X and Final Fantasy 14 as titles.

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Originally Posted by Supersnow845

Like say (and I’m making up numbers here)

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Yes, you are making up numbers.

From the FY2024/3 Q1 briefing, Q and A with the CEO:

Q: Initial sales of “FINAL FANTASY XVI” were three million units. How did that compare to your expectations, and how do you plan to expand sales going forward?

A: This achievement was in line with our expectations. To expand sales, we have planned a variety of PR activities and other initiatives to encourage more of the growing PlayStation5 installed base to play the title.

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An alternative explanation may make sense, though it is unlikely to portray the game in a good light either: perhaps those who are labeled as terminated have not actually stopped playing. They simply do next to nothing in the game and do not participate in much content at all in order to get any achievements (not even something simple like clearing Orthos to F20).

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More inclined to say it's this, although I wouldn't say EO to F20 is simple. I don't think there's a decline in players, just that the audience is changing.

Not really sure what there is to say about this though. Community wise it sucks, but there's nothing that can be done about it.

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Originally Posted by DPZ2

Yes, you are making up numbers.

From the FY2024/3 Q1 briefing, Q and A with the CEO:

Q: Initial sales of “FINAL FANTASY XVI” were three million units. How did that compare to your expectations, and how do you plan to expand sales going forward?

A: This achievement was in line with our expectations. To expand sales, we have planned a variety of PR activities and other initiatives to encourage more of the growing PlayStation5 installed base to play the title.

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Yes and that’s why I said I’m making up numbers here; I used it to illustrate a point

Square has always had whack sales expectations, a ceo video like that isn’t going to come right out and say “our game underperformed” but you can damn well bet it underperformed their stupidly high expectations for it

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Originally Posted by DPZ2

This is your interpretation of the corporate culture at Square Enix. Not exactly sure what you base your conjecture on other than wishful thinking. Who, exactly, have you been consulting about those "whack sales expectations" at SE? (Other than your own imagination of how it must be?)

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I’m out of daily posts btw

https://www.reddit.com/r/truegaming/..._expectations/
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards...witch/79912511
https://www.resetera.com/threads/doe...-games.519168/

You can look inside the forums for links to specific articles for specific games but this includes games going all the way back to at least the 6th generation

This is a well known phenomenon

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Originally Posted by Supersnow845

Yes and that’s why I said I’m making up numbers here; I used it to illustrate a point

Square has always had whack sales expectations, a ceo video like that isn’t going to come right out and say “our game underperformed” but you can damn well bet it underperformed their stupidly high expectations for it

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This is your interpretation of the corporate culture at Square Enix. Not exactly sure what you base your conjecture on other than wishful thinking. Who, exactly, have you been consulting about those "whack sales expectations" at SE? (Other than your own imagination of how it must be?)

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Originally Posted by DPZ2

Yes, you are making up numbers.

From the FY2024/3 Q1 briefing, Q and A with the CEO:

Q: Initial sales of “FINAL FANTASY XVI” were three million units. How did that compare to your expectations, and how do you plan to expand sales going forward?

A: This achievement was in line with our expectations. To expand sales, we have planned a variety of PR activities and other initiatives to encourage more of the growing PlayStation5 installed base to play the title.

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The answer given sounds like a very pr way of saying “please buy the 500$ console of one of our partners to play our game. Please. Pleaseeeeeeee”

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Originally Posted by Supersnow845

Yes and that’s why I said I’m making up numbers here; I used it to illustrate a point

Square has always had whack sales expectations, a ceo video like that isn’t going to come right out and say “our game underperformed” but you can damn well bet it underperformed their stupidly high expectations for it



I’m out of daily posts btw

https://www.reddit.com/r/truegaming/..._expectations/
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards...witch/79912511
https://www.resetera.com/threads/doe...-games.519168/

You can look inside the forums for links to specific articles for specific games but this includes games going all the way back to at least the 6th generation

This is a well known phenomenon

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Bro, he's purposely being obtuse to give you a hard time. Even if you show him a source he'll either ignore or misinterpret it. Don't take the bait, lol.

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Originally Posted by Swordsman

Bro, he's purposely being obtuse to give you a hard time. Even if you show him a source he'll either ignore or misinterpret it. Don't take the bait, lol.

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Yeah. It's not fun reading articles upon which reddit statements are loosely based. The article referenced by the reddit post (a Wikipedia article) leads to the initial article that does not mention the word "failure" for example. The game's Tomb Raider (in 2013) sales target was 14.9 million. At the time of the article it was 3.4 million. Total sales ended up being 14.5 million.

The second article apparently sourced the same article about the 2013 Tomb Raider release. And also contained a large amount of speculation based on zero numbers other than 3.5 million players of Outriders and the developer (not SE) complaining about royalties.

The third article was interesting, but only because there was little mention of "stupidly high expectations". The mention of Avengers - a game which, given the MCU's popularity, should have been a slam dunk - is a dead giveaway.

So, no real data for"whacked expectations" in the articles mentioned. A lot of forum posts, covering the feelings of the readers and writers, though. None of whom work for Square Enix.

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Originally Posted by Ivtrix

The answer given sounds like a very pr way of saying “please buy the 500$ console of one of our partners to play our game. Please. Pleaseeeeeeee”

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Nah. It's a very polite way for a CEO to tell investors "we hit our [self-imposed] mark and will continue PR activities to encourage new Playstation 5 purchasers to buy the game."

The Q&A wasn't aimed at consumers.

we are back to the lowest point of ShB numbers. not a good sign when we still have 9-10 months of no new raid tier, no relic grind, no exploration zone, etc.

If the FF XIV player population is in decline... why have I experienced a login queue, of consistent length, every single time I've logged into the game in the past 18 months?

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Originally Posted by Tahbitha

If the FF XIV player population is in decline... why have I experienced a login queue, of consistent length, every single time I've logged into the game in the past 18 months?

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The game cannot handle too many people logging in at the same time so it filters them with a queue no matter the time of day or night.

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Originally Posted by Tahbitha

If the FF XIV player population is in decline... why have I experienced a login queue, of consistent length, every single time I've logged into the game in the past 18 months?

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It was a stopgap made to alleviate some issues with login during EW release. They havnt removed it