This game has seriously messed up RNG

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Originally Posted by ADVSS

Edit: IMO crafting and gathering should have yes the initial success rating but scale based alot like how desunthesis works. Lets be real you crated a million of these damn leather wristbands, how often are you really going to fail at it at this point? its like rolling a d 20 for something a person can do in their sleep. "im sorry sir, you failed to turn the knob on the door, you die instantly"

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It depend on if you upgraded your equipment or still use the equip of an apprentice. High experience in crafting something can't do much if the equip is shit.
If you can't get it near 100% then the equip is not good enough (or you messed up your skills)

Your example with rolling a d20 to open a door will be 100% with a nomal hand (good equip), 75% with a broken hand and 25% if the whole arm is broken. And 0% if you are armless

It's unfortunate that most people don't understand RNG. The problem is that SE chose to display a percentage figure, which gives a confirmation bias. If we see 99% chance we then expect 99 successes out of every hundred but that's not how it works with RNG (unless you have infinite tries, but even then there's an infinite possibility of failures). Unless you have 0% or 100% success rates shown then you can ignore the value, to all intents & purposes.

TLDR - RNG makes the % value in game as good as useless.

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Originally Posted by Felis

I depend on if you upgraded your equipment or still use the equip of an apprentice.

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Except that equipment plays no factor in the RNG, for crafting at least.

Your failure rate on a level 1 recipe is the same in full HQ ironworks as in level 1 equipment. The equipment only affects how many times you need to roll by boosting the progression numbers on a successful attempt. In the door example, you'd have a fixed failure rate to open the door (you have to get creative on how that works) and depending on the quality of your boots, shirt, gloves and pants, you'd be able to open it to any degree from barely one inch to fully opening it in one go. And Gucci is OP, clearly.

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Originally Posted by Rongway

I had to stop reading the thread as soon as I read this to respond, because it shows lack of comprehension of a very important point that everyone needs to understand before we can have any sort of discussion about probability that isn't completely wrong.

If the probability is not 0% or 100%, there are no guarantees.

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Originally Posted by Culfinrandir

It's unfortunate that most people don't understand RNG. The problem is that SE chose to display a percentage figure, which gives a confirmation bias. If we see 99% chance we then expect 99 successes out of every hundred but that's not how it works with RNG (unless you have infinite tries, but even then there's an infinite possibility of failures). Unless you have 0% or 100% success rates shown then you can ignore the value, to all intents & purposes.

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Thank you. I was hoping someone would mention this before this thread ballooned further into anecdotal nonsense.

Yep, this is basically my main reason why I don't even touch crafting: the RNG is just BeeEss and I refuse to waste time with RNG. in a PAY TO PLAY game.

Just look at WoW and its RNG with dungeon drops and mythic: granted it's enjoyable for a bit, dungeons are more hectic and actually rewards for mass pulling (you're on a time limit afterall), and having your loot dropped is amazing and makes you wanna do it more and more, but there are times where the RNG is just unbearable and sometimes.

But at least when it comes to crafting is simple: you have the recipe, the mats and the right place, you craft it. End of story. But in this game? I feel like I should pay for a protection over my mats (That doesn't exist but if it did, they'd make a fortune over it).
And let's forget overmelding...and thank God they seem to be slowly forgetting materia too.

Leave RNG to f2p games please...leave the RNG in dungeons if you must, but nothing else!

The crafting RNG isn't nearly as bad as some people in this thread seem to think. I couldn't tell you the last time I NQed a craft that I was attempting to HQ without it being directly tied to me doing something stupid.

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Originally Posted by Aramina

The crafting RNG isn't nearly as bad as some people in this thread seem to think. I couldn't tell you the last time I NQed a craft that I was attempting to HQ without it being directly tied to me doing something stupid.

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This, with Rath's Rotation you hardly butcher a Craft and if you mess up during the Rotation, you can still Reclaim.

I believe some People do not Craft Lv.60 1-4* at all and have bad Luck in the end,

/rolls eyes...

Anyone who is trying to wave the Pro-RNG flag is very conveniently ignoring the other side of the example.

Yes, unless the odds are 100%, there is a chance that you will fail in the task. Yes, it does suck when you have a 99% success rate and still fail one or two in a row. HOWEVER, while I, personally, have had 99% success syths fail three, four, and even five times in a row, I have NEVER had the same result on the opposite end of the spectrum. I have never had HQ synths pop up three, four, or five times in a row when it was at 1%.

So while, technically, the "It's just RNG, get used to it" argument holds water to a certain degree, it should also remain true on the other side of the scale. And it doesn't. RNG shouldn't play favorites, and it clearly does.

I would also be far more willing to accept the unfairness of it all if the complaints were only coming from new crafters. However, every single high-end crafter I have spoken to has said the very same thing: RNG is extremely one sided.

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Originally Posted by Ramath

However, every single high-end crafter I have spoken to has said the very same thing: RNG is extremely one sided.

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Well, now you have spoken to a 4* crafter that says it isn't. :)

edit: If people are legit having RNG issues with high-level crafts, you should check out: http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...tion-and-Macro

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Originally Posted by Ramath

So while, technically, the "It's just RNG, get used to it" argument holds water to a certain degree, it should also remain true on the other side of the scale. And it doesn't. RNG shouldn't play favorites, and it clearly does.

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I'd argue that's confirmation bias, Ramath. You already expect the system to be "mean" to you, so you remember it very well every time something was taken from you that seemed like you had it for sure (99% HQ chance).
While it is pleasant to get a good result with a low success rate, you will easily forget it fairly fast, and looking back, will only remember what you expect of the system - to do bad things to do.

As someone who never gears her crafters at all until they hit 50/60, I can safely say the same happens on the other end of the spectrum.
For beastmen HQ turn-ins, I always rely on the 1% HQ chance because it takes everything to even finish the item in lvl 5 gear.
I haven't just gotten HQ versions at all, I have more than once recieved 2-3 HQ products in a row, despite the chance just being 1%.

Or, when I'm out gathering and my inventory is full and I only want NQ items, I usually end up with a handful of HQ ones even when I'm in an area where I barely meet the requirements to get HQ at all.
And yes, I make an effort to conciously remember all those times, because it's very easy to end up only remembering the times RNG didn't work in my favour.

(Doesn't change the fact that I HATE RNG so incredibly much and how MMOs in general are plagued with it, but the system is working as intended. I just don't like the intention in the first place, making anything you worked hard for chance based at all)