I quite like that idea.
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There only one mistake with your theory. The esoteric weapon can be upgraded already to ilvl210. On Alexander Savage we have a tome that allow us to upgrade it, like the rest of the AF2 gear and the accesories. So you saing that we will able to upgrade the esoteric weapon to its relic ilvl210 version. It doesnt make much sense.
Which is another thing that is highly unlikely to be required for relics. It's kind of a thing to not require you to do a raid of any kind for relic quests. :P
Having to spend 3 weeks worth of esoterics to start a relic would just be stupid, honestly. Especially when that weapon is already upgradeable via other means.
The point is we don't know what the Mythic will need (why do people keep saying Relic when we have a Relic already. It's in the quest name and everything, "A Relic Reborn"). It might need the Esoteric weapon, it might not. The only thing we do know is it's coming soon... that's about it. No point /backhanding people for thinking one way or the other. They could be easing access to the upgrade items specifically for Mythic, or it could just be repeating what they did for Ironworks. I'm holding out for implementation before I make any real judgements, as should everyone else.
Presumably, if my hunch is correct, the antiquated esoteric weapon will be used as a base of the Relic/Mythic/Whatever, and there will be a separate i210 weapon that will glow or whatever. They may just add some Latinate suffix to it like they did before to designate it. The fact that there's already an i210 version doesn't mean there can't be yet another that's unlocked through the relic quest at all--it's not as though something prevents them from using the item for two purposes. There were two versions of the i100 Relic weapons as well (both Atma and Animus were i100).
They also displayed a number of the Esoterics weapons when they showcased the new AF gear, so they probably consider them part of the set (just like the original Relics were considered part of the AF set and the Atma weapons were by and large "matched" to the i90 AF+1.) So while it might seem somewhat strange because of the presence of i210 Esoterics weapons to some folks, personally I think there's enough there to highly suggest we'll see them be part of the new questline.
It still doesnt make sense what you are saing or I misunderstood your words. On the orther case, I totally agreed with your explanation of the AF2 about the esoteric becoming the new relic based on how back on 2,0 the AF and the relic where toghether, but why would they divide the esoteric weapon in 2 different paths? So you saing that for poeple who has already an esoteric weapon ilvl210 is already too late because they would need a ilvl200 to upgrade it to the current relic ilvl210? They would require to buy another one. It cannot be, no way it would be made is such a way.
On my personal theory I would said that the relic will be ilvl 215, that way would make sense the upgrade from 210 to +5. Lets not forget that 3.1 is a catch patch, the tome necesary to upgrade the weapon from 200 to 210 will be abailable with orther ways, not just savage. Also lets not forget that also at the end of every catch up patch 2.3/5 the relic was always the best in slot, so it could be ilvl215.
Relics have never had anything to do with capped tomes or weekly lockouts, and esoterics will almost certainly be capped until 3.2.