Broken Lottery, Please Rollback

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Originally Posted by Heh

Depends on the bug. If the bug is plot related, then only roll the one that has Zero as winner. But, If the bugs really because of the flaw in the RNG (thus affecting all the participants), then it would only fair to be rerolled for everyone. Otherwise that would be unfair for participants that didn't win because of the flawed code, and only fair to the dude that happens to win.

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Depends on the RNG flaw.

If the flaw was simply that 0 was always considered a participant. Then even if a 0 could be rolled, it was a fair distribution for whoever won. With 4 participants, everyone would have gotten a 20% chance, and 20% chance on the 0 (which would only happen in 1/5 cases). Which is most likely the cause and easily allows a reroll for only those affected.

The other RNG flaw would usualy mean a poor RNG implementation, and favoring certain numbers. Sure, that flaw could get numbers like 0, 8, 16 etc (or offsets like 5,13,19) to show up more regularly, and in that case would require a complete reroll server wide to counter unfairness here. But any decent security oriented RNG would already be fine (sure, they can have minor advantages, but practicaly this would require millions of participants to show). And those RNGs are most of the time already available by default within software. Its unlikely this was the cause.

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Originally Posted by Juyira

a lot of people still won fairly.

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Actually no. Assuming there is 2 bidders on a plot, the bidders do not have 50% chance of winning but only 33%, which is not what is displayed nor is fair. And it goes down the more bidder you have.

My FC lost a large plot because the last 30min 2 bidders came and one won. I suffered from a 8.33% lost of chance of winning the lottery, which could have made the difference. I'll never know.

My point is: the freaking code is not even able to count to one correctly, why would I assume that their RNG is fair ? Also, what RNG algorithms did they use server-side ? What pseudo-random generator did they use in their code, was it coded properly ? Any audit on its fairness ? Did they seed it properly ? Did they publish the distribution of the RNG engine for 1B numbers to prove it's a fair one ? I don't think so. Nothing tells me the system was, is and will be fair. For all I know, maybe the number 4 has more occurrence of happening, we'll never know.

is unfair that the same Fc can bid multiple times on the same plot

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Originally Posted by Cerusia

I disagree. Why should you have your house rolled back and pray for RNG to bless you again when you have already won? It's 100 % understandable for houses that got absolutely no winners, that sucks a lot and I'm all for rolling back the lottery and re-drawing it ( without allowing new entries btw to not mess up original chances! ) But the houses that have been claimed should not be taken away from the winners again imo. That's just going to make people furious too.

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Because the "winner is 0" means that even those who won, probably wouldn't have won at all, if the 0 wasn't being counted in the first place. It changes the entire math.

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Originally Posted by Heh

Oh wow this is interesting. Is there anyone here winning their plots with the last lottery number? If there isn't single winner coming out from the last number, then this major F up

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I won with lucky entry 4 out of 4.

As per the JP Lodestone (google translated):

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Currently, in the lottery sale of housings, when checking the signboard after the result announcement period, the following message is displayed and there are multiple reports that there are no winners.

・ Even though there were applicants, "There were no lottery participants." Is displayed.
・ "The winning number is 0. You have lost." Is displayed and it is displayed as if there are no winners.

We are proceeding with the investigation and response while confirming the application on the database as soon as possible. We apologize for the inconvenience and thank you for your patience.

We apologize for any inconvenience caused to our customers.

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So they're aware of the issues and they're looking into the cause. The devs are likely to have a fun weekend ahead of them.

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Originally Posted by severan

Because the "winner is 0" means that even those who won, probably wouldn't have won at all, if the 0 wasn't being counted in the first place. It changes the entire math.

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Only if 0 counts as a participant. And some people here have won with the last number of listed participants, so we don't know if that is truly the case.

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Originally Posted by Dustytome

As per the JP Lodestone (google translated):


So they're aware of the issues and they're looking into the cause. The devs are likely to have a fun weekend ahead of them.

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Still does not justify an error of this margain, I could understand if could not built on the plot due to some wonky error in the code, but not an error as simple as this technically is, it should never had passed QA to begin with and if testet at all, it should never had passed testing either.

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Originally Posted by Dustytome

As per the JP Lodestone (google translated):


So they're aware of the issues and they're looking into the cause. The devs are likely to have a fun weekend ahead of them.

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And of course, they ignore NA Lodestone. We all know they don't work 8-5 in a NOC. Good job guys.

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Originally Posted by Greyhawk

And of course, they ignore NA Lodestone. We all know they don't work 8-5 in a NOC. Good job guys.

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It's on NA Lodestone now. Usually takes about an extra half hour for localization to translate and webmasters for the NA/EU Lodestones to get messages up.

"We sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this may cause."

I called it, lol.

Same happened to me, what a QA nightmare! SE seems to be looking into the problem but this is a mess.

I made a support ticket as well.

Same thing. I was the only bidder on the chosen plot for my FC, didn't win.

Lost to 0 here as well. Only bid on the small plot too. :(

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Originally Posted by Sergster1

There's no way to prove this. For all I know somehow you did something I did not do which gave you an advantage. For all I know the underlying code explicitly prevented me from winning and gave the win to you.

You realize in 100% of lottos with flawed drawings that it results in a complete redraw right?

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You also can't prove they didn't win fairly either. Without seeing the reasons behind the bug you can't make a case either way. However saying "something you did not do which gave you an advantage" is completely made up. We all placed a bid. /emote praying at a placard or doing a dance or even checking the plot multiple times has nothing to do with anything. Last point is that no most lottos with this big of an issue are not 100% redrawn. I don't know where you got that statistic from but in most cases its far easier to keep the results and fix the bug to give the ones affected another chance with the same odds they originally had, basically reroll the bugged estates with original bidders. If you logic stands then the odds were slightly off say you did 3 bids out of 4 for a house but really there was 5 bids because of 0. Same odds for everyone there just an unknown bidder. Without knowing the actual bug reason though who knows. This is all speculation here

If they come up with some BS saying they can't properly track the entrants, that'll be insane. I put my bids in as soon as the patch dropped so they've had all the logins, logouts, and play time between Tuesday and now to safe records to their database.

this happened to me, too, on a small FC plot where i was the only bidder. i'm really disappointed. i sent a support desk ticket in but who knows what the end result of the fix will be.

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Originally Posted by Illmaeran

If they come up with some BS saying they can't properly track the entrants, that'll be insane. I put my bids in as soon as the patch dropped so they've had all the logins, logouts, and play time between Tuesday and now to safe records to their database.

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As someone who went around at midnight last night saw alot of plots with 1, came back this morning and they were all 4+ ALOT of us went for a morning of bid drop

The plot I bid on only had two other people on it which results to only three participants all together. We lost.
I knew the odds were against me 2 to 1, but I took the gamble because my chances against more participants were going to be lower.. and we all lost to a "0" entry. It even boasts :The winning number was "0" as if someone was suppose to have that number. "What?? Wait, how, when, where??" were my flabbergasted words as I read this. So I decided to reject my refund, so i could see how many people were in the pool. I thought maybe I miscounted the participants, but that was not the case: three people, and my number was "3". So who had "0"!?


I didn't accept my funds in hopes that SE will (and should) consider issuing an instant recount. For those who lost the lottery and the plot was claimed, I can understand that the RNG system was also unfair to you too, because there was a chance that you all could have gotten this "0" as well. But it didn't, so I don't agree for SE to issue a recount on all the plots, because I can see so many people claiming their prize for the win and already in-gear of decorating. Yes, it's not fair because the coding did effect your chance to win too (because of the probability of it could have been "0"), but how would you feel if you did win, but get told "Hey we gotta demolish your plot to give everyone another fair chance on a corrected system". You would be peeved about it. So it would be messed up to find out the plot they so-luckily obtained (with a small percentage assistance), was demolished because of a system error that didn't effect them individually, but effected everyone as a whole for a chance that the plot could have rolled "0".

I am very livid about this. I waited a week, checking on the plot daily to see if more people would join the pool, but it stayed at just three participants. I was RELIEVED to know I was up against just two other participants. I would have been fine if the number was "1" or "2" and screaming with joy to know it hit "3", because I would have lost or won fair and square....but this was not the case. The winning number was "0" for a participants of just three people. And those who were the only bidder have it even WORSE than I do, and I believe they should be given the plot fairly; not have to put in another ticket and wait another week where chances are they will be up against MORE people because they lost on a previous plot. If this was intentional of SE, they should have implemented in the announcement there may be a chance there could be no winner. I really hope that is NOT the case, because no one was aware of this possibility and it was not displayed anywhere on the announcement. Either this was a development issue or promotional issue. Regardless, this is on SE to make it right because they messed up.

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Originally Posted by BellBixbite

You also can't prove they didn't win fairly either. Without seeing the reasons behind the bug you can't make a case either way. However saying "something you did not do which gave you an advantage" is completely made up. We all placed a bid. /emote praying at a placard or doing a dance or even checking the plot multiple times has nothing to do with anything. Last point is that no most lottos with this big of an issue are not 100% redrawn. I don't know where you got that statistic from but in most cases its far easier to keep the results and fix the bug to give the ones affected another chance with the same odds they originally had, basically reroll the bugged estates with original bidders. If you logic stands then the odds were slightly off say you did 3 bids out of 4 for a house but really there was 5 bids because of 0. Same odds for everyone there just an unknown bidder. Without knowing the actual bug reason though who knows. This is all speculation here

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I agree, what people are missing is that no one won, if you add in the "0" as a bidder and say well 5 won but really it should of been 6, well thats pointless, no one won, "0" won it was never rolled on, "0" won by default.

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Originally Posted by Yuantis

I’m very sorry for those who luckily won a house SOMEHOW but this Lottery was unfair to MANY of us!!! If they allow those winners to keep their houses under the new broken system, the next try will be even more tedious for us who got the bug with the “0 participants”!!! All those people who lost on those Lotteries will now participate on the few available and it will be less fair than it was meant to be!
I vouch for a Rollback! And get it fixed!!

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I support a rollback for everyone despite winning myself- if there really was a 0 counted in any of them it was counted in all and that ruins the integrity of every draw. It doesn't feel good to win because of an error and lock so many people out of what we all equally deserve. Feels bad.

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Originally Posted by Sergster1

There's no way to prove this. For all I know somehow you did something I did not do which gave you an advantage. For all I know the underlying code explicitly prevented me from winning and gave the win to you.

You realize in 100% of lottos with flawed drawings that it results in a complete redraw right?

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This would necessitate them rolling back the entire housing ward, which means taking down the servers, issuing mass refunds and essentially starting the whole process over again. There is precisely zero chance they even consider this not only due to the massive complications involved but the sheer degree of backlash would be on a whole separate magnitude. Instead of angering several people, they'd enrage literally every single person who won their plot only for it to be taken and now they may not win it again through no fault of their own. At best, they'll re-roll the 0 "winner" plots but everyone who won, will keep their new plots.

Not only that, but every single person who didn't enter would lose all their progress they did either today, or to whatever point they originally chose. So tomes, items, gil, sales, everything. That'd be a statistical nightmare

This needs to be fixed. Our FC were the only bids on a plot and we lost to 0? I don't want to go through the lottery again when one of us should have won and compete with other fc's because of this bug.

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Originally Posted by ForteNightshade

This would necessitate them rolling back the entire housing ward, which means taking down the servers, issuing mass refunds and essentially starting the whole process over again. There is precisely zero chance they even consider this not only due to the massive complications involved but the sheer degree of backlash would be on a whole separate magnitude. Instead of angering several people, they'd enrage literally every single person who won their plot only for it to be taken and now they may not win it again through no fault of their own. At best, they'll re-roll the 0 "winner" plots but everyone who won, will keep their new plots.

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You still have the issue of people who lost to people who didnt get bugged, wondering if the integrity of the whole thing was jeopardized. Its still going to be an absolute dumpsterfire that they will probably never live down. This might be their worst debacle, this isnt like a lol the instance is full so we have the playerbase blocked on a quest, that eventually clears up. Housing is not a situation that has proven to "just get better" lol.

This is just assumptions on my part here but the post on Lodestone about them acknowledging and investigating this total failure leads me to believe they can determine a winner by checking entries. If the result even was 0, they can see whose bids were not 0, and determine from their engine who the winner would be, then award the winner. If they want the Gil so badly, come get it from my account. Otherwise, yeah of course I took the money back. It's bad enough to entrust it to a failed system, let alone keep it there.

I'll write the check for the Gil.

The only way that they can please everyone is by opening wards past 24 on all housing districts, make it 48. It's 2022, there is no way their servers unable to handle that. And SQEX, these people are your paying customers for cactuar sake, not a free loader in your house. This artificial housing scarcity is doing more harm to your community with zero benefit. Except to those who managed to grandfathered their plots.

If it were any other MMO I've played, the servers would've already been down until a fix was found, and then rolled back to exactly 7:59am PST before the lottery rolls. What a mess of an update.

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Originally Posted by Eskuire

Not only that, but every single person who didn't enter would lose all their progress they did either today, or to whatever point they originally chose. So tomes, items, gil, sales, everything. That'd be a statistical nightmare

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It's very possible for them to roll back instanced areas alone and has been done before.

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Originally Posted by Eskuire

Not only that, but every single person who didn't enter would lose all their progress they did either today, or to whatever point they originally chose. So tomes, items, gil, sales, everything. That'd be a statistical nightmare

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I suspect they could limit a rollback to the wards itself not the entire game. Granted, with the degree of ineptitude currently on display. Who really knows?

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Originally Posted by Qeilos

You still have the issue of people who lost to people who didnt get bugged, wondering if the integrity of the whole thing was jeopardized. Its still going to be an absolute dumpsterfire that they will probably never live down. This might be their worst debacle, this isnt like a lol the instance is full so we have the playerbase blocked on a quest, that eventually clears up. Housing is not a situation that has proven to "just get better" lol.

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Oh, I don't disagree. Either they intentionally designed the system this way without telling anyone. Which looks incredibly sneaky. Or they made such an egregious mistake people deserve to lose their jobs over it from sheer incompetence. No matter what happens now, they won't soon live down how horrendously handled this whole system was. Nevertheless, they'll opt for damage control. It's their only real recourse. Which likely means people who won their plots will keep them, regardless of the debatable integrity. And those where the house won will either have to try again with a patched system or maybe they simply redo those rolls. I sincerely hope for the latter in such a scenario otherwise you'll see a sudden dogpile now that people who lost their designed plot scramble to find another one.

I dont know whether to laugh or cry. But if its true they removed 1 from whichever lotto that won, I might have been affected and I could have won. My ticket was 8, the winning ticket was 7.

I'm not happy with this as well. I know I might have lost but I would have liked a chance instead of having 0 win again.

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Originally Posted by Lothric

It's very possible for them to roll back instanced areas alone and has been done before.

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You’re missing the point in what they’re saying: the people who won a house, and successfully built or relocated on their new plot, would lose any progress they made on their new home in terms of furnishing. And then it calls into question: what of the plots that were given up for relocation? How would those be handled?

It’s better to do re-rolls on the “0 is the winner!” or “There were no participants” plots versus all of them. It will cut down on the rage.

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Originally Posted by HyoMinPark

You’re missing the point in what they’re saying: the people who won a house, and successfully built or relocated on their new plot, would lose any progress they made on their new home in terms of furnishing. And then it calls into question: what of the plots that were given up for relocation? How would those be handled?

It’s better to do re-rolls on the “0 is the winner!” or “There were no participants” plots versus all of them. It will cut down on the rage.

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And *you're* missing the point where the entire system was unfair and there were tons more people who lost, that now have to question the validity of their draw. We get that you won, but it's an MMO not a singleplayer game- the other people matter, too.

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Originally Posted by HyoMinPark

You’re missing the point in what they’re saying: the people who won a house, and successfully built or relocated on their new plot, would lose any progress they made on their new home in terms of furnishing. And then it calls into question: what of the plots that were given up for relocation? How would those be handled?

It’s better to do re-rolls on the “0 is the winner!” or “There were no participants” plots versus all of them. It will cut down on the rage.

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My point exactly. SE should not roll back for the plots that were already claimed. If they do, this could fail miserably for those who lost there plots due to relocating. I understand they have done this before where they rollbacked, but that was before they made this stupid housing complicated than it really needed to be.

Honestly wanna see rollback happening so the people who got their houses get their salt flowing just like us when we got fucked up by SE and their terrible design choices.

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Originally Posted by HyoMinPark

You’re missing the point in what they’re saying: the people who won a house, and successfully built or relocated on their new plot, would lose any progress they made on their new home in terms of furnishing. And then it calls into question: what of the plots that were given up for relocation? How would those be handled?

It’s better to do re-rolls on the “0 is the winner!” or “There were no participants” plots versus all of them. It will cut down on the rage.

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That isn't a point at all. I am one of those winners; and like many other people have told you EVERY lottery so far was unfair. Some plots just happened to land on the zeroes that shouldn't have been included.
If you pick and choose then you're bittering more people than you're pleasing.

Same for our FC. 9 bids all us, winner is 0. None of us are happy, and in fact many are furious.

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Originally Posted by HyoMinPark

You’re missing the point in what they’re saying: the people who won a house, and successfully built or relocated on their new plot, would lose any progress they made on their new home in terms of furnishing. And then it calls into question: what of the plots that were given up for relocation? How would those be handled?

It’s better to do re-rolls on the “0 is the winner!” or “There were no participants” plots versus all of them. It will cut down on the rage.

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That's actually a good question in regards to the ones that already relocated, and I wonder what would happen in the event of an Ishgard rollback. We moved from the Lavender Beds, and would that mean our old ward gets rollbacked too if they were to attempt to fix this for everyone? That would affect anyone making housing changes in the ward who had no intention of moving to begin with too unless they just went for changing individual plots, at which point they really could just come up with a solution to the ones that had a winner of "0".

No matter how you look at it, it'll be messy whatever they decide to do.

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Originally Posted by Tamlen

And *you're* missing the point where the entire system was unfair and there were tons more people who lost, that now have to question the validity of their draw. We get that you won, but it's an MMO not a singleplayer game- the other people matter, too.

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No, she isn't. she, along with myself and others, are simply pointing out that a full scale rollback isn't likely to happen because the backlash will be even worse. Not to mention, HyoMin brings up an excellent point. For those who relocated, how do they reclaim their house? That would require the entire game being shut down to roll back everything since now you're talking about multiple wards on multiple characters spanning over 24 servers on just NA alone. Imagine if they simply... refunded you the equivalent of your original plot. It just isn't feasible.

I don't disagree with the questionable integrity but there is absolutely zero chance they even consider a complete rollback.