The Endless Cycle of Failing Overmelding

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Originally Posted by zdub303

Thats certainly true, however you do sacrifice a significant amount of damage for that hp. Each stat has its place but in dungeons like coil with fairly tight dps timers you'll want to be pushing your dps as hard as you can. In that case raid gear is more desireable for raiding (as it should be imo)

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Yah I ran the numbers through http://valk.dancing-mad.com/?page_id=202 although not sure how reliable the information is. I lose out on about 2 dps with a 100 potency attack. ratio was same with auto attacks and other skills. For that I get the hp and little over 1% more crit chance.

I'm not too worried as when the next gear set comes out whenever that may be it will blow all current sets away. Then we all will be back to square one.

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Originally Posted by zdub303

If the average is 100 tries it would equate to 1% probability. Could you post the math you are using to determine that 0.16%?

If the average is 60 tries (which is what I was reading and seeing myself), it would equate to a 1.6% probability (or around 1.5% more likely).

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Because it's a streak. It may sound odd, but every time you fail (or succeed), your next time is increasingly likely to be the opposite.

1 success out of 100 is 1% but that 1% can happen on your very first try or very 20th try, or 21 try in any combination. 99 fails, is astronomically low, because you are basically trying to calculate the probability of combination of 99 straight tosses, not tossing 1 out of 100 success.

The difference here is the same as dice theory, in fact it's commonly call dice theory. You only need to succeed once.

There's a big difference to tell you toss a dice 100 times, as oppose to telling you , to keep failing until you reach your 99th time.

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Originally Posted by kukurumei

Because it's a streak. It may sound odd, but every time you fail (or succeed), your next time is increasingly likely to be the opposite.

1 success out of 100 is 1% but that 1% can happen on your very first try or very 20th try, or 21 try in any combination. 99 fails, is astronomically low, because you are basically trying to calculate the probability of combination of 99 straight tosses, not tossing 1 out of 100 success.

The difference here is the same as dice theory, in fact it's commonly call dice theory. You only need to succeed once.

There's a big difference to tell you toss a dice 100 times, as oppose to telling you , to keep failing until you reach your 99th time.

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The chance to fail 99 times in a row with a 1% chance to succeed is 37%. It's hardly an unlikely event. You should expect to see a string of 99 fails on a regular basis if you're doing stuff that has only 1% chance of success.

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Originally Posted by Astarica

The chance to fail 99 times in a row with a 1% chance to succeed is 37%. It's hardly an unlikely event. You should expect to see a string of 99 fails on a regular basis if you're doing stuff that has only 1% chance of success.

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Except it was not a regular basis. That's the point of the fallacy. A person is not going to repeatability do the same rng.

It's just random number throwing, from 10% to 1.5% to 1%. that .016% was from way earlier and got carried. But this is on in any event average, not a single person.

if a 1% success, you're nowhere near going to get 99fails on average. an average of 100-120 tries don't correlate in any case.

The point has always been forum BS ruined tera's otherwise rational(if not consumer friendly) gear system. As long as you sprout "Well korean's say.." you instantly get corrupted fallacies.

ARR is doing pretty much the exact same thing, except they flat out state the percentage, to prevent stupidity on the forum, like this thread.

For every unhappy over-melder, there is one out there who went 1/1 on an 8%. That's life.

My worst luck was 103 melds in total to get one piece of gear pentamelded, but umm...

You guys realize you get to keep your gear even though you fail in ARR, isn't that more than enough easymode already?

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Originally Posted by Yoona

My worst luck was 103 melds in total to get one piece of gear pentamelded, but umm...

You guys realize you get to keep your gear even though you fail in ARR, isn't that more than enough easymode already?

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Considering that some gear is dependent on over melds to be better or they just wasted there time getting it made/making it. i would say it's still pretty heart breaking to fail over and over. so in a way they kind of do lose the item if they give up on it.