% for melding materia is broken

Having 41% chance means you have a 41% chance every time you do it. Don't fall victim to gamblers fallacy.

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Originally Posted by Alistaire

For every post like this there's 97% other people out there experiencing the "normal" side of statistics.

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Well technically it should be 99.94% other people, so you're admitting it is broken.

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Originally Posted by Keeff

the probability is less then .1% shouldnt happen 3 times

thats not a % of success rate at all

remove % from the equation and label it for what it is, pure dumb luck, or fix it.

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You obviously don't understand how probability works at all. And you are being fooled by your own point of view, the success rate won't change just because you attempted it multiple times in a row, each time the success rate will always be 41% vs a failure rate of 59%, even things with an astonishingly low probability still happen anyway. The probability of getting a royal flush is like 0.0032% yet if you play poker chances are you've seen it at least once if not more happen.

Edit: Also since an actual developer has already responded about this asinine line of logic before: http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...34#post2310334

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Originally Posted by Gramul

Having 41% chance means you have a 41% chance every time you do it. Don't fall victim to gamblers fallacy.

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QFT. I don't know why people want to think it's 41% out of 100 attempts. Every time you roll, you roll from zero

Sense we're on statistics, here's a trick some of you might know.
http://math.ucr.edu/~jdp/Monty_Hall/Monty_Hall_a.GIF

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Originally Posted by Alukah

always in a row

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Well, yeah. Once a sequence breaks, it's no longer a sequence.

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Originally Posted by MilesSaintboroguh

Come back when you try to meld materia with a 94% success rate and fail 3 times.

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I missed a 99% chance gather twice in a row, then a hit on a node after it failed too. I also succeeded a 14% meld, four times in a row once.

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Originally Posted by Haibel

QFT. I don't know why people want to think it's 41% out of 100 attempts. Every time you roll, you roll from zero

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If it is an actual 41% chance, then you expect the results to be 41 out of 100. That's literally what a percent is, a ratio out of 100. Saying 41% is the exact same thing as saying 41/100.

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Originally Posted by Fawkes

If it is an actual 41% chance, then you expect the results to be 41 out of 100. That's literally what a percent is, a ratio out of 100. Saying 41% is the exact same thing as saying 41/100.

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The post wasn't saying it isn't 41/100%, it was saying it isn't 41% x 100 rolls. it's 41% x 1 roll, you fail or you pass. Your streak has no effect on the system, each time you try again it is back down to acting like it is your first roll. It doesn't maliciously decide ahead of time that you will fail 100 times in a row because it doesn't like you.

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Originally Posted by Fawkes

If it is an actual 41% chance, then you expect the results to be 41 out of 100. That's literally what a percent is, a ratio out of 100. Saying 41% is the exact same thing as saying 41/100.

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No, you don't. Over a long string of attempts it would equalize around there, but making 10 attempts you could fail all 10. Expecting otherwise is wrong.

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Originally Posted by Haibel

To sum up. (You roll, you fail, end roll)(You roll, you fail, end roll)(You roll, you fail, end roll) ect....
it's not. You roll, You fail, You fail, You fail, You fail, You fail, end roll. your failures are not in a row.

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I'm aware of that, I'm talking about getting the same end results from five different sequences that were done one after another, you may seem them unrelated because the sequences were different, I don't.