Garlemald's situation. (Spoilers 6.55)

Just saw a video of one of the FF XIV lore channel, explaining the situation and the potential that Garlemald could be invaded or attack by one of the civilizations that they either conquered or not.

Wuk Lamat mentioned one of her brothers wanted to conquering Garlemald, showing that the civilization and it's people are still in danger because of the deeds they have done. And even if the scions and we, the warriors of light try to stop this, that doesn't mean Wuk Lamat's brother will be the last, since a lot of people would see the Garleans burn.

So i wonder if in Dawntrail and maybe other expansion will show us if this would happen. Since Garlemald is in a weakens sate and the source has suffered 60/70 years under the Galrean's yolk, i wouldn't be surprise if they would attack them out of hatred and demanding justice and revenge of what the Garlemald has done to them.

As cathartic as that would be, the fact we'd then be forced to jump to their defense makes me hope that never ends up being the case

I think that will be the field operation in Dawntrail. Just something out the top of my head, but it would make sense if you have Garlemald's situation.

I took that part to mean that with the Garleans out of the way, Eorzea is free to conquer. Not that they were gonna march through several Eorzean city-states to go attack a barren ice field of civilians huddled in a train station.

I disagree with Scribe about that being on the table. I think it's possible, but only in the sense that, like, it's also possible that Ishgard could invade the Thanalan; yes, people are in position to, but doing so would require a will that I just don't think is there. A big part of Garlean history is that Garlemald is where it is because they were bullied off into the ass-end of nowhere thanks to resource scrambles, but the fact that they're in the ass-end of nowhere means that they don't really have a lot of tactical value to anyone else. Sure, they've got ceruleum, but they're also the only nation that really wants ceruleum enough to go kill for it. Much more likely is that they'll start trading with it with more niche interested parties like the Skysteel Manufactory than, like, Bozja deciding 'let's take their magic-oil'.

That only really leaves the motivation of raw vengeance, and... honestly, that's just not really how war politics works. Sure, wars can be drawn out longer out of emotions like that, and we've definitely got in-setting examples of that, but actually getting into a war in the first place out of vengeance, that's just... not really a popular or smart move in the real world or XIV's. Certainly, none of the leaders we've met are the type to do that (especially since most of them are at least generally familiar with why the Dragonsong War sucked), and nothing we've really heard about unseen occupied lands suggests they are either. Hell, remember that Locus Amoenus is still calling itself Locus Amoenus; there's not even will to change their name back, why would there be will to mobilize a 'Kick 'Em While They're Down' war?

All of these thoughts that Garlemald could get attacked are actually falling more into the rhetoric that Solus Galvus and his faithful weaved to justify their imperialism in the first place; that everyone around Garlemald are just inherently bullies, that they had to swing first because the notion that someone else would take from them was inevitable. And not only do I not think that any in-universe country we're aware of is that cruel or vindictive, I also don't think that we're playing a game that would do that.

The exception is the Turalian warmonger, but like Silvermoon said, I think that's more just seeing land ripe to conquer in general rather than specifically wanting Garlemald. I also think we're gonna put a stop to that before he gets to even set any boats out to sea.

This is the sort of story that Endwalker (or rather the expansion that should have been the first part of Endwalker) should have already told, one in which the Eorzean Alliance doesn't march into Garlemald on their own but as part of an international effort that would include representatives of Garlemald's former satellites, some of which would absolutely want to see every last Garlean responsible for upholding the system at a stake.

If I were a conquered nation that suffered under Garlean occupation for 15-50 years, my chief concern would be making absolute certain that they weren't just going to resupply and conquer me right back. Besides, as others have mentioned, there's no real strategic value to any of the few territories that the Garleans have left, and nobody in Ilsabard is likely to have the military resources at this juncture to launch a campaign of vengeance outside of maybe Landis which was largely content under Garlean rule.

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Originally Posted by Eisi

This is the sort of story that Endwalker (or rather the expansion that should have been the first part of Endwalker) should have already told, one in which the Eorzean Alliance doesn't march into Garlemald on their own but as part of an international effort that would include representatives of Garlemald's former satellites, some of which would absolutely want to see every last Garlean responsible for upholding the system at a stake.

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While I'm willing to concede the Warrior of Light being an unfailing paragon of altruism, it is still, to this day, extremely frustrating that any internal division among the Alliance regarding the fate of the empire is glossed over by the narrative and that very few of the people who suffered the most under imperial oppression have any involvement in the resolution of that arc. Yes, somebody needs to stop the cycle of revenge that fueled Garlemald's unceasing engine of perpetual retribution against everyone and no one in particular, but it seems like a huge cop-out for everyone to just agree that they've suffered enough and that nobody is to be held for account for the atrocities that were committed in the name of Garlean imperialism that they still wholeheartedly believe in.

I also loathed the self-effacing "maybe we are the bloodthirsty conquerors" angle for the Alliance, who just showed up with only the absolute best of intentions to literally save all life on Etheirys from certain doom. It would certainly have been a better beat to play at the conclusion of a long campaign winding northward through Ilsabard than one where we simply materialize at Fandaniel's doorstep. Showing Garleans in that arc with a greater diversity of opinion than all being unfaltering nationalist sycophants might help too.

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Originally Posted by Eisi

This is the sort of story that Endwalker (or rather the expansion that should have been the first part of Endwalker) should have already told, one in which the Eorzean Alliance doesn't march into Garlemald on their own but as part of an international effort that would include representatives of Garlemald's former satellites, some of which would absolutely want to see every last Garlean responsible for upholding the system at a stake.

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Maybe then the writers would've realized how weird it is to keep the former, warmongering, xenophobic, racist politicians in power, instead of replacing them with people that don't openly admit that they'd start conquering again if they had the chance...

It's more like they took a page out of the Star Wars Expanded Universe play book. Garlemald was the devil we know (Galactic Empire led by Palpatine). Potential other conquerors from across the sea are the devil we don't (Yuuzhan Vong).

It's basically the setting itself telling us that Garlemald was such a big deal that the three continents we're on were seen as their territory more or less, even the nations that weren't directly under their yoke. To encroach even on Eorzea would be to draw the attention of their empire, so nobody wanted to step up to them from across the pond.

Now though, with word of the Empire's demise afoot... Every tract of land is seen as individuals, I guess. The Eorzean Alliance is relatively new and is actually not even that big. Remember, even though the Eorzeans are all bad asses, they never fought the full might of Garlemald. Only one legion at a time via narrative reasons, and even in the apocalyptic 8UC timeline, it was Blackrose that did the majority of killing the empire (by design).

If the 4th successor-"elect" were to invade, it would not be to take Garlemald or their ceruleum. It would be to take advantage of the lack of unified military might that could stand against him. Military might, need I remind you, that had highly advanced magitek to the point of making individual ultima weapons, aerial dreadnaughts the size of small cities, and individual powersuits capable of empowering any man to be as mighty as some of the strongest aetherial manipulating peoples (seen with Nero's, Soranus sisters, etc. suits).

I'd imagine that even if Tural's forces aren't the size of Old Garelmald's that they're still a bigger force than Eorzea's.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

The exception is the Turalian warmonger, but like Silvermoon said, I think that's more just seeing land ripe to conquer in general rather than specifically wanting Garlemald. I also think we're gonna put a stop to that before he gets to even set any boats out to sea.

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I really, really do hope this plot point gets done away with rather quickly, as it's one I just don't have any interest in whatsoever, and don't think is very interesting or substantial. I'd like for our motivation for opposing a would-be warmonger to be a little more immediately substantial to Dawntrail, if that makes sense. Not that I think that itself is going to be the driving force for longer than a handful of quests, mind, but I'd rather just distance myself from Garlemald as a whole, personally.

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Originally Posted by Mayhemmer

I really, really do hope this plot point gets done away with rather quickly, as it's one I just don't have any interest in whatsoever, and don't think is very interesting or substantial. I'd like for our motivation for opposing a would-be warmonger to be a little more immediately substantial to Dawntrail, if that makes sense. Not that I think that itself is going to be the driving force for longer than a handful of quests, mind, but I'd rather just distance myself from Garlemald as a whole, personally.

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I think it will. 'He's gonna try to swing for the Three Great Continents eventually if he wins, but there's shorter-term reasons we need to get him to knock it off'. After all, someone whose number one priority is waging a war for the hell of it probably isn't a very good leader in other ways.

I do think that he's gonna be more of a Nidhogg than a Thordan, though, if you get what I mean. He'll be the first, louder and more simplistic villain, and then the real bad guy becomes clear.

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Originally Posted by RavLandslide

Maybe then the writers would've realized how weird it is to keep the former, warmongering, xenophobic, racist politicians in power, instead of replacing them with people that don't openly admit that they'd start conquering again if they had the chance...

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That's not weird. That's exactly what would happen. Most people view hierarchies as natural. So after the regime fell, those who were highest in the hierarchy still alive would be the ones put into power. It doesn't make sense for warmongering, xenophobic citizens to elect a bunch of nice, reasonable people to be their senators. These are people who would rather die than trust outsiders. The senators we got were the exact kind of people who would be chosen to lead under those conditions. It might be annoying, but it's realistic.

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Originally Posted by Lady_Silvermoon

That's not weird. That's exactly what would happen. Most people view hierarchies as natural. So after the regime fell, those who were highest in the hierarchy still alive would be the ones put into power. It doesn't make sense for warmongering, xenophobic citizens to elect a bunch of nice, reasonable people to be their senators. These are people who would rather die than trust outsiders. The senators we got were the exact kind of people who would be chosen to lead under those conditions. It might be annoying, but it's realistic.

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It's not just realistic (and probably the only option anyway, since legislative bodies were pretty heavily controlled by the Galvuses anyway so pickings were probably slim), it's also in many ways the right move from a detached perspective. There's a few reasons for that:

1. Morally-speaking, the Ilsabard Contingent just don't want to be interventionary. Taking a historical view, that's probably right: being interventionary like that mostly just leads to resentment and, several decades later, people wanting to retaliate.
2. Since it's entirely possible that sort of group will eventually get power, it actually sort of helps to let them have it when they can't actually use it and just sort of burn themselves and their ideology out.
3. They're the hardest to convince to play nice, but will be forced to, making for an 'if they can be convinced, anyone can' situation. In the long term that's a good move, because the fact they've been forced to eat crow themselves means they're probably not going to get rebellious in opposition once someone more moderate is in charge.

I don't think anybody in-universe was thinking that many steps ahead, their stances were much more empathetic,, but from an external audience perspective with knowledge of real-world history and a greater eye for additional factors, they actually took the options available to them that were least likely to set a time bomb several decades down the line.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

Since it's entirely possible that sort of group will eventually get power, it actually sort of helps to let them have it when they can't actually use it and just sort of burn themselves and their ideology out.

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This is not really a good mindset, though. As in, I can concede that it might be "realistic", but only in that people in RL might believe in such a thing, despite any evidence or reasoning to the contrary. (A lot of things are "realistic" in that they happen in RL, but in RL we also acknowledge it to be mistaken and flawed, if not utterly stupid. The International Realism proposed by Quintus van Cinna is an obvious example.)

The flaw in this mindset is "let the ideology burn itself out" requires not only time, but also keeping the people involved powerless for the entire duration. This effectively turns the situation into a sort of incarceration or prison, to prevent any part of that toxic ideology from spreading outside of the carefully controlled environment, rather than addressing the toxic ideology itself. In fact, it's letting that ideology fester by allowing its proponents to come to power, regardless of whether it's allowed to affect anyone else.

As we've seen in the 6.x patches, the Ilsabard Contingent are not interested in doing that. By far what the vast majority of them want to do is go home, because they don't like the climate of Ilsabard any more than the Garleans do. So quarantining the existing Garlean ideology of conquest and imperialism is already rejected for being too much work for not enough results.

And we've also seen that the Ilsabard Contingent, and the Eorzean Alliance behind them, are more than willing to give more power to the surviving state of Garlemald, however rump. That was the whole rationale behind the trade treaty with Thavnair; the Ilsabard Contingent do not wish to be gaolers to the Garleans, and the Garleans want to move towards self-sufficiency. In fact, my own annoyance with that plot point was how literally nobody had evidently thought about reopening trade until Varshahn brought it up; realistically, this should have been one of the first proposals from either the Eorzean Alliance or Garlemald.

Letting the ideology of conquest "burn itself out" is very dangerous, because you need to be absolutely certain that burning will not spread, and that it will burn itself out instead of continuing to burn forever. The more realistic route is through education and de-programming, ie "convince the remaining authorities to play nice". So I strongly disagree with your point 2 as stated, but strongly agree with your point 3 as stated.

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Originally Posted by YianKutku

Letting the ideology of conquest "burn itself out" is very dangerous, because you need to be absolutely certain that burning will not spread, and that it will burn itself out instead of continuing to burn forever. The more realistic route is through education and de-programming, ie "convince the remaining authorities to play nice". So I strongly disagree with your point 2 as stated, but strongly agree with your point 3 as stated.

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Yeah, I think that to clarify, this only works out because the leaders left standing in Garlemald... kind of aren't very good at harnessing and leading with the ideology they have. I suspect that might be a symptom of the fact that the nominal leadership in areas like the senate were likely chosen partly for being ineffectual; the Galvuses appointed a lineup of, above all, yes-men who were only ever going to use powers that the Galvuses wanted them to. But you cut off the head that is the royal family, and all these guys can really do with that ideology themselves is shout it ineffectually at a world that no longer bends to it. If someone like Nerva Galvus was still alive we'd be in a lot more trouble, but these guys aren't really capable of furthering their own cause.

The same 'qualities', I think, also made them unexpectedly good at the situation that they found themselves in. Someone like Quintus would never have accepted the trade deal that's ultimately their first shovel to dig themselves out of their hole, because he's just too proud and ambitious. But these guys, basically by design, are too spineless for that.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

Yeah, I think that to clarify, this only works out because the leaders left standing in Garlemald... kind of aren't very good at harnessing and leading with the ideology they have. I suspect that might be a symptom of the fact that the nominal leadership in areas like the senate were likely chosen partly for being ineffectual; the Galvuses appointed a lineup of, above all, yes-men who were only ever going to use powers that the Galvuses wanted them to. But you cut off the head that is the royal family, and all these guys can really do with that ideology themselves is shout it ineffectually at a world that no longer bends to it. If someone like Nerva Galvus was still alive we'd be in a lot more trouble, but these guys aren't really capable of furthering their own cause.

The same 'qualities', I think, also made them unexpectedly good at the situation that they found themselves in. Someone like Quintus would never have accepted the trade deal that's ultimately their first shovel to dig themselves out of their hole, because he's just too proud and ambitious. But these guys, basically by design, are too spineless for that.

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It's still far from my ideal outcome, but you're right: they're going to either have to learn to play nice or die the second they're no longer surviving hand to mouth from the Alliance.

What I'm missing most is not catharsis against the Empire (we've got plenty of that already), but rather a more complicated imperial populace than the one we're shown in Endwalker. If Maxima is to be believed, the Populares actually had quite a lot of influence, legitimacy, and military strength, and a lot of even pureblood Garleans suffered a great deal under the autocratic regime. I can imagine that having your friends and relatives constantly being sent into the meat grinder of your emperor's forever war, especially one that they are suddenly losing, might begin to sway public opinion. The idea that a not-insignificant amount of imperial citizens had objections to the governance of the provinces is hardly unbelievable even if it weren't stated outright in the text.

But in Endwalker, we are shown nothing but undyingly loyal emperor cultists who are hopelessly ignorant and superstitious despite their world-class education. What happened to the rest? Died off-screen? How convenient. If we couldn't get the full Optimates vs Populares showdown that they set up in Stormblood, we could at least have gotten some imperial citizens that weren't constantly adversarial. It even would have added a layer to the underlying moral conflict: of course we'd leap to extend an olive branch to the people who agree with us, but we'd also have to rise above ourselves and reach out to the people who don't, too. It would have made a much more interesting 6.x arc for Garlemald to reconcile political differences within Garlemald rather than wait around for Vrtra to hand down the obvious solution in the eleventh hour.

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Originally Posted by Vallavia

What I'm missing most is not catharsis against the Empire (we've got plenty of that already), but rather a more complicated imperial populace than the one we're shown in Endwalker. If Maxima is to be believed, the Populares actually had quite a lot of influence, legitimacy, and military strength, and a lot of even pureblood Garleans suffered a great deal under the autocratic regime. I can imagine that having your friends and relatives constantly being sent into the meat grinder of your emperor's forever war, especially one that they are suddenly losing, might begin to sway public opinion. The idea that a not-insignificant amount of imperial citizens had objections to the governance of the provinces is hardly unbelievable even if it weren't stated outright in the text.

But in Endwalker, we are shown nothing but undyingly loyal emperor cultists who are hopelessly ignorant and superstitious despite their world-class education. What happened to the rest? Died off-screen? How convenient. If we couldn't get the full Optimates vs Populares showdown that they set up in Stormblood, we could at least have gotten some imperial citizens that weren't constantly adversarial. It even would have added a layer to the underlying moral conflict: of course we'd leap to extend an olive branch to the people who agree with us, but we'd also have to rise above ourselves and reach out to the people who don't, too. It would have made a much more interesting 6.x arc for Garlemald to reconcile political differences within Garlemald rather than wait around for Vrtra to hand down the obvious solution in the eleventh hour.

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The problem with that is that it was already stated that Varis rid Garlemald of the Populares off-screen. When the other political party is given the KGB treatment or outright gassed with Black Rose, the remaining citizens aren't necessarily going to suddenly flip to support that purged side overnight because they got conquered themselves.

The Populares lost the first Garlean civil war when the movement's leader Titus failed to take the throne and Varis purged them later on despite them being around and prominent in politics at the beginning of his reign. Maxima took all the remaining Populares and defected to Ala Mhigo with them. So there wouldn't be any Populares left in Garlemald for there to be a whole thing since they would've been with the Ilsabard Contingent. Maxima mentioned it in passing but I think it would be interesting when Garlemald inevitably comes back up if the Populares coming back as conquerors has any repercussions.

One thing that I'm still confused about the whole thing though is why Nerva, Titus' son, was still in command of a legion and in a position of power after the first civil war. The 3rd lore book says that he was also against Varis every step of the way so it stands to reason he'd also be Populares like his father, but we know how he ended up.

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Originally Posted by MikkoAkure

The problem with that is that it was already stated that Varis rid Garlemald of the Populares off-screen. When the other political party is given the KGB treatment or outright gassed with Black Rose, the remaining citizens aren't necessarily going to suddenly flip to support that purged side overnight because they got conquered themselves.

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I should state for clarity I'm not disputing that any of this actually happened (though I do still find it unlikely that all support for provincial reform and a distaste for the monarchy would just completely evaporate among the general public), just that I find it unsatisfying storytelling to have all of Garlemald's internal politics teased and then resolved offscreen an expansion later with little ceremony.

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Originally Posted by MikkoAkure

The Populares lost the first Garlean civil war when the movement's leader Titus failed to take the throne and Varis purged them later on despite them being around and prominent in politics at the beginning of his reign. Maxima took all the remaining Populares and defected to Ala Mhigo with them. So there wouldn't be any Populares left in Garlemald for there to be a whole thing since they would've been with the Ilsabard Contingent.

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I suppose I may have a flawed recollection, but my understanding was that the Populares still managed to hold on to relevance prior to Maxima and the lot defecting to the Alliance. Was it that they were only allowed to exist to facilitate Elidizenos's gambit to further damage relations between Doma and the Empire?

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Originally Posted by MikkoAkure

Maxima mentioned it in passing but I think it would be interesting when Garlemald inevitably comes back up if the Populares coming back as conquerors has any repercussions.

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This is ultimately what I was hoping for but in the short term, the implications of the Populares seeking foreign aid to wrest control of Garlemald would surely be cause for alarm. But, as you said, it may be yet more interesting to see what the perception is now that they've come returned as a hostile foreign power themselves.

eta: I also wanted to clarify that I wasn't stating that the Populares should have been present in Endwalker as a significant military entity or distinct faction, just that their ideology was widespread enough to be represented among Garlean citizens that we would have seen in Endwalker.

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Originally Posted by Vallavia

I suppose I may have a flawed recollection, but my understanding was that the Populares still managed to hold on to relevance prior to Maxima and the lot defecting to the Alliance. Was it that they were only allowed to exist to facilitate Elidizenos's gambit to further damage relations between Doma and the Empire?

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They were purged some time after the Doma delegation before or during the time Alphinaud went back with Maxima, but that whole thing was a farce orchestrated by Varis and Elidibus anyway. Like I said, I'm not sure why Varis allowed the political movement to exist after the civil war. Maxima's parents were Populares and were "disappeared" an untold amount of time ago, but I don't know if that would be before or after the civil war. By the time Black Rose came around Varis stopped playing around and everyone died or defected in the end.


The Populares were the better of the two main political movements to our eyes, but to the Garleans they were the cause of two civil wars and arrived with the Ilsabard contingent. Though on the Optimates side you have Varis who attempted to kill everyone in the world (and succeeded in one timeline) and Zenos who purposefully broke the empire apart and invited the Telophoroi in to destroy everything and temper Garlemald. You would hope the Garleans would eventually realize that the Populares fought against the people who were controlled or managed by ancient angry ghosts who ended up enslaving them to build a creepy tower and forced families to kill each other at the end. Also it would be nice if they remember they were a republic with a senate for 700 years and nothing world-shattering terrible happened.

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Originally Posted by MikkoAkure

You would hope the Garleans would eventually realize that the Populares fought against the people who were controlled or managed by ancient angry ghosts who ended up enslaving them to build a creepy tower and forced families to kill each other at the end. Also it would be nice if they remember they were a republic with a senate for 700 years and nothing world-shattering terrible happened.

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I want to believe that this is the angle that they're ultimately shooting for, even if we probably won't see it for another few years. The Role Master quests in Endwalker had a distinct tone of nostalgia for a peaceful Garlemald, hearkening back to Locus Amoenus in the tribal or republic era, and a sort of celebration of Garlean ingenuity outside of the war machine. The logical step would be to follow through on that ideal in the MSQ, though I doubt we'll get that far until we actually get to central and southern Ilsabard in person.

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Originally Posted by Vallavia

I want to believe that this is the angle that they're ultimately shooting for, even if we probably won't see it for another few years. The Role Master quests in Endwalker had a distinct tone of nostalgia for a peaceful Garlemald, hearkening back to Locus Amoenus in the tribal or republic era, and a sort of celebration of Garlean ingenuity outside of the war machine. The logical step would be to follow through on that ideal in the MSQ, though I doubt we'll get that far until we actually get to central and southern Ilsabard in person.

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Yeah, the one good thing that came out of the empire was the Garlean rediscovery of advanced technology similar to their ancestors in Goug. They had and still might have brilliant scientists and engineers out there who had nothing at all to do with Ascians and a new Garlemald can exploit that. People pity party the Garleans, but the Ishgardians have the exact same story of a people getting pushed out from where they lived to move to a climate that's exactly the same as Garlemald's but they're apparently doing fine enough. Elezen used to live in central Aldenard until Hyur migrations from Ilsabard pushed them into Coerthas. Sound familiar?


I think the Garleans will go through a rough patch for sure, and some will remain in Ul'dah (Lemures), Sharlayan, and the Moon in diaspora, but Garlemald will lurch on and eventually carve their own niche in a more peaceful global community. Ishgard is near-ish by and would probably be on more friendly terms since Ishgard wasn't directly assaulted by Garlemald (though they might have things to say about the Calamity caused by them that ended their summers) and they have similar histories of being pushed out of their original lands to live in places otherwise undesirable and both are technologically minded.

Cid was still held in high regard even after defecting to the west and Nero is still around too. But I don't know if either will rejoin Garlemald.

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Originally Posted by Vallavia

But in Endwalker, we are shown nothing but undyingly loyal emperor cultists who are hopelessly ignorant and superstitious despite their world-class education. What happened to the rest? Died off-screen? How convenient. If we couldn't get the full Optimates vs Populares showdown that they set up in Stormblood, we could at least have gotten some imperial citizens that weren't constantly adversarial.

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I might also pitch that we're presented with the exact group of people most likely to be huddled around the radio as the world falls apart around them. "The rest" were the tempered.

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Originally Posted by Hasrat

I might also pitch that we're presented with the exact group of people most likely to be huddled around the radio as the world falls apart around them. "The rest" were the tempered.

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I'd buy that as an explanation; I'm just idly lamenting lost potential more than anything.

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Originally Posted by MikkoAkure

I think the Garleans will go through a rough patch for sure, and some will remain in Ul'dah (Lemures), Sharlayan, and the Moon in diaspora, but Garlemald will lurch on and eventually carve their own niche in a more peaceful global community. Ishgard is near-ish by and would probably be on more friendly terms since Ishgard wasn't directly assaulted by Garlemald (though they might have things to say about the Calamity caused by them that ended their summers) and they have similar histories of being pushed out of their original lands to live in places otherwise undesirable and both are technologically minded.

Cid was still held in high regard even after defecting to the west and Nero is still around too. But I don't know if either will rejoin Garlemald.

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I think Garlemald would also find allies among a handful of their former provinces, too, as we've seen the Empire afforded a not-insignificant number of people a much better quality of life than they'd had prior, and some of them might already be missing the luxuries that Garlean industry provided. This is what makes me believe this arc would be better realized if they kicked it down the road awhile to the Ilsabard expansion.
Based on his brief appearance in the Role Master quest, I'd say Nero is a possibility solely predicated on his desire to conduct arcane research, but I have firm doubts Cid would ever associate with Garlemald again. Lucia's too tied down to Ishgard but I could see Maxima having some involvement as well.

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Originally Posted by Vallavia

I'd buy that as an explanation; I'm just idly lamenting lost potential more than anything.



I think Garlemald would also find allies among a handful of their former provinces, too, as we've seen the Empire afforded a not-insignificant number of people a much better quality of life than they'd had prior, and some of them might already be missing the luxuries that Garlean industry provided. This is what makes me believe this arc would be better realized if they kicked it down the road awhile to the Ilsabard expansion.
Based on his brief appearance in the Role Master quest, I'd say Nero is a possibility solely predicated on his desire to conduct arcane research, but I have firm doubts Cid would ever associate with Garlemald again. Lucia's too tied down to Ishgard but I could see Maxima having some involvement as well.

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I rather doubt that. The only instance we have of that is the 4th legion, which doesn't have anything to do with Garleans, as its entirely run by non Garleans who intend to shake off the yoke of Garlean rule and have just been waiting for the right time to.

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Originally Posted by thegreatonemal

I rather doubt that. The only instance we have of that is the 4th legion, which doesn't have anything to do with Garleans, as its entirely run by non Garleans who intend to shake off the yoke of Garlean rule and have just been waiting for the right time to.

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I would count Landis as at least one:

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Originally Posted by Bwagi's field notes

While he had many a memorable moment during his wanderings, nothing is so close to his heart as his visit to the industrial city of Abdella in Garlean-occupied Landis.

As he strolled through the streets, he came upon a play being performed by a troupe of Eschvan nomads, who were known as much as a source of foreign rumors as they were for their song and dance. The play was a whimsical affair depicting the love lives of ordinary folk, but to Bwagi, who had lived his entire life under a grim pall of conflict, it was anything but ordinary. Even as he was moved by the tale, he was struck by the jovial mood of the city, which had since regained normality following its conquest. This was his first experience of peace, and it proved heady. Taken by a sudden longing, he begged to join the troupe...only to be politely rejected.

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That aside, there's so much of Ilsabard left unseen that it's hardly inconceivable in my opinion.

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Originally Posted by MikkoAkure

One thing that I'm still confused about the whole thing though is why Nerva, Titus' son, was still in command of a legion and in a position of power after the first civil war. The 3rd lore book says that he was also against Varis every step of the way so it stands to reason he'd also be Populares like his father, but we know how he ended up.

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I can see reasons for that.

1. Controlled opposition. Give people who disagree with the government a figurehead to rally around, that actually doesn't have much power beyond being a magnet for dissidents.
2. Just straight-up self-assurance. Varis wasn't exactly a perfect military mind, it's perfectly within his personal failings to just not think Titus' failure of a son is actually a danger. Hell, the only evidence I have that Nerva had any sort of charisma at all is that his lines in the 6.1 quest sound like they're probably coming from a fairly well-balanced man lamenting the loss of his country, and if he were a bad leader he'd sound more like Asahi.

Basically, pick how much faith you have in Varis to make an intelligent decision: some, or no.

I had a few more thoughts to share regarding the Populares and Optimates, but I'd need to dig up exact quotes about them to confirm the in-universe definitions vs the RL definitions, so I'll leave that for a bit later when I have more energy. In the meantime:

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Originally Posted by Hasrat

I might also pitch that we're presented with the exact group of people most likely to be huddled around the radio as the world falls apart around them. "The rest" were the tempered.

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This is confirmed, yes. When we first venture into Garlemald in Endwalker, we fight a number of "random Garlean enemies", and subdue them. Later, Maxima identifies them as fellow members of the Populares, all tempered, and eventually safely cured by the Ilsabard Contingent. So the idea that the people sympathetic to the Populares have all been tempered, while the people sympathetic to the Optimates are safe due to the radio, is confirmed in-game.

Okay, this is going to be a bit of a rant, because I've been pondering this for a while.

The problem with analyzing the Populares and Optimates in FFXIV is the text never explains precisely what they are, in terms of definitions. We don't know if they are political parties, political alignments, or political sympathies.

"Political parties" is as described, meaning official groups or factions within the Garlean Senate and political structures, campaigning together as defined parties, like the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan.

"Political alignments" is like a broader grouping of parties, like the "left-wing" and "right-wing" descriptions in RL. Leftist, liberal, centrist, conservative, communist, reactionary, anarchist, fascist, so on and so forth. These include the actual political parties involved in government, but are not restricted to them; anyone can proclaim their allegiance to an alignment, and work to promote that alignment, but the main thing is they are working to promote that alignment. This is what I personally suspect the FFXIV Populares and Optimates are, because we meet (and beat up and cure) tempered Populares when we enter Garlemald, and I doubt we just happened to have encountered actual politicians then. Likely they were members of the Garlean military, and their superiors (I want to guess Legatus-level, but I might be wrong) were aligned with the Populares. Since Maxima recognized them, they were probably officers of some sort too. (Historically, military officers inevitably involved themselves in politics in some way, both enthusiastically and reluctantly.)

"Political sympathies" is the broadest, and what we're assuming when we say "the Optimates are the ones huddled around the radio". As in, the regular civilians and public, who would, in a more democratic system, be voting for the political alignments and parties they side with. But they're not members of those political parties, nor are they associated with the ideologies beyond "I agree with them". I'm skeptical this is what FFXIV means when it talks about Populares and Optimates, because it's simply too broad and general. It's like saying "Ishgardians are at war with the dragons", which is fine for a brief and understandably vague summary, but leaves out the details of which parts of Ishgard's society are literally on the battlefield against which dragon brood.

We do know what they're not: political methods, which is what the RL historical Populares and Optimates were. "Populares" and "Optimates", in the Roman Republic sense, simply describes the source of support for a given politician: the masses for the Populares politician, and the elites for the Optimate politician. This means a "Populares" politician might have gained the support of the masses by increasing the "grain dole" to the common people, or whipped up fervour for war by invading other countries. And given the opposition of Populares and Optimates, this means if a Roman Consul wanted to grab some land by means of conquest, but the Senate refused for whatever reason, that Consul would turn Populares (and anti-Optimates) by convincing the common people of the benefits and glory of war, bypassing the Senate and reducing their power.

So using the historical definition, the most Populares of the Garlean politicians was Solus zos Galvus, for proclaiming himself Emperor with the consent of the common folk, and reducing the power of the Garlean Senate to an advisory role. Similarly for Varis zos Galvus, since he obviously did not return the power of the Senate when he took the throne.

Obviously, FFXIV is not using this historical definition, and there lies my rant. FFXIV is obviously evoking the basic idea behind historical Populares and Optimates of "common people" vs "elites", but does not follow it closely, while also being vague about what differences there may be. The Populares are described as "the common people who desire an end to conquest", but that is ambiguous enough to mean either "the common people as a whole, who generally desire an end to conquest", or "those segments of the common people who desire an end to conquest". And when Varis launched his purge against the Populares, we don't know if this means he purged the known Populares politicians (the "parties" and "alignments" definitions), or if it was some sort of totalitarian cleansing of wrongthink (the "sympathies" definition). Common sense would indicate the former, but again, we don't know.

In summary, I argue that it is likely better to treat "Populares" and "Optimates" as merely labels, in the context of FFXIV, without going into the historical definitions of the terms. Replace them with "Politics A" and "Politics B", and it would be just as informative.

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Originally Posted by YianKutku

In summary, I argue that it is likely better to treat "Populares" and "Optimates" as merely labels, in the context of FFXIV, without going into the historical definitions of the terms. Replace them with "Politics A" and "Politics B", and it would be just as informative.

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We also have something of a problem of limited perspectives. While we do know of the existence of the Populares and Optimates from multiple sources, our viewpoint of what the Populares want, think and believe is just Maxima. I hardly think Maxima is lying to us, but he only exists in very limited contexts, mostly relating to how the Garleans look at military and existential threats. And himself, is only one person who's unlikely to be completely, 100% reflective of the 'party line'. FFXIV has played with intra-party divides and their clashes with personal interests before with the Monetarists, so it's a fair assumption that the Populares were probably more complex than just talking to Maxima would have us believe.

Granted, a bunch of that doesn't matter, and probably reflect on things that we as players don't care about, like transport or healthcare. Maybe the Populares were actually way more conservative about, like, energy policy; we don't know, and probably never will, because it doesn't change one thing about the play experience.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

We also have something of a problem of limited perspectives. While we do know of the existence of the Populares and Optimates from multiple sources, our viewpoint of what the Populares want, think and believe is just Maxima. I hardly think Maxima is lying to us, but he only exists in very limited contexts, mostly relating to how the Garleans look at military and existential threats. And himself, is only one person who's unlikely to be completely, 100% reflective of the 'party line'. FFXIV has played with intra-party divides and their clashes with personal interests before with the Monetarists, so it's a fair assumption that the Populares were probably more complex than just talking to Maxima would have us believe.

Granted, a bunch of that doesn't matter, and probably reflect on things that we as players don't care about, like transport or healthcare. Maybe the Populares were actually way more conservative about, like, energy policy; we don't know, and probably never will, because it doesn't change one thing about the play experience.

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We also know, from 4.x dialogue, that the Populares did not represent every citizen of Garlemald who might share their views on opposing imperialism. Specifically, Cid had no idea about the existence of the Populares, while the Populares held Cid as the finest example of a principled objector who acted upon their conscience rather than submit to authority. Hence my belief that the Populares consisted of the "political alignment" definition at most. There might be others who shared the same views, whether in part or in whole, but they might not have wanted (or been able) to associate themselves explicitly with the Populares movement.

Still, you are correct that we only know about the Populares via Maxima, and also implicitly from the lack of corrections or comments from others who might have information on the workings of Garlean politics. For example, Thancred and Riol, as well as the collective group of Doman infiltrators to Garlemald. In fact, we first heard about the Populares in the first place via Asahi, and we only know Asahi wasn't lying outright due to Maxima not contradicting him even after Asahi's demise. And all we know about the Populares from these sources are "common people" and "opposed to war". Of the Optimates we know even less, apart from their opposition to the Populares.

It's one of the aspects of Garlemald that got sidetracked by the events of 5.x, viz the Garlemald civil war. I've heard this plot issue described as "Squid on the Mantelpiece": it's like the proverbial Chekov's Gun, but events become so large and drastic that all the subtle plot foreshadowing and setup ceases to be relevant. To use an example from Star Wars Knights Of The Old Republic, there was all the setup about gang relations and underworld espionage on Taris, and then none of it mattered after Act 1. In FFXIV, we never had the chance to explore the intricate politics of Garlemald, because in 5.0 we had to go to the First, especially since we specifically were told in 4.5 that none of it matters. Black Rose, introduced in 4.0, was basically the Star Destroyer orbiting Taris: the plot device already present that would make all the plot setup irrelevant once used.

So by the time we entered Garlemald, or had a chance of entering Garlemald that would not mean Black Rose being used on us (as per the Eighth Calamity timeline), the Populares and Optimates factions have become irrelevant. There might have been new factions that shared some values with one or the other, eg "cooperate with the international community" vs "build back up to subjugate", but I don't think they would even count as direct successors to the Populares and Optimates as political alignments.

EDIT: I just thought of a much closer comparison: the political conflict between the Monetarists and Royalists of Ul'dah, at the time of Endwalker. A serious dispute that formed the basis of several important plot points in ARR and Heavensward, but by the time of Endwalker (or even Shadowbringers) it's kind of minor and irrelevant, compared to the Final Days.

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Originally Posted by YianKutku

EDIT: I just thought of a much closer comparison: the political conflict between the Monetarists and Royalists of Ul'dah, at the time of Endwalker. A serious dispute that formed the basis of several important plot points in ARR and Heavensward, but by the time of Endwalker (or even Shadowbringers) it's kind of minor and irrelevant, compared to the Final Days.

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An example that I'd point out is the only 'political party' that actually got proper spotlight in Endwalker (and the one I'm most confident is actually a political party): The Bibliothecs, in Sharlayan. Out of all known political groups they're probably the one with the most cohesive known platform, as well as debatably the one we can most quantify in terms of members and influence if we're really clever about political analysis. And their place as basically Astrologian's antagonist gives us a decent window into how they work.

But even though they're around, named and even seen in Endwalker, they don't actually get a whole lot of spotlight. Because ultimately, the level that political parties/movements mostly work on just don't really exist for a story like the one we're playing. Our main area is basically international relations, so we know how each nations' political forces operate there as well as a couple region-specific issues, but everything else just doesn't really matter to us. I'd argue that it never could've; even a theoretical version of 5.0/6.0 that focused much more on Garlemald wouldn't have done much more with them.

I hate that we spend so little of the Garlemald content talking about the incidentally-liberated slaves down in the oil fields, but I also don't think the story ever actually had much scope to talk about them.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

I hate that we spend so little of the Garlemald content talking about the incidentally-liberated slaves down in the oil fields, but I also don't think the story ever actually had much scope to talk about them.

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:laughs: I admit I'm particularly bitter about them not only because they're more sympathetic to me, that I'm more interested in the vassal states and former colonies of Garlemald than Garlemald proper (and of Garlemald itself, the culture and history of the Republic Era), but because of where I live, having the fantasy oil/natural gas refinery equivalent be regulated to a single side-quest series about getting the plant back online without more exploration of daily life and health impacts or its influence on political policy was deeply disappointing. Nor did they have any lines during the meeting with Vrtra to outline Garlemald's future. But that comes with living at one end of a port city's Refinery Row where there is more than twenty plants or installations of various sizes and output that I must drive past before reaching downtown. Outsized impact and all that. I'm sure if one of the subplots in Dawntrail is about environmental impacts of cerulean drilling, people will complain about yet another rehash of VII's Shinra. But I hope that if/when they do will also be when the story loops back to pull Jareck and the others of Tapper's Den back into the narrative. A single quest line objective where we ask for their opinions when learning about North Tural probably.

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Originally Posted by Denishia

I'm sure if one of the subplots in Dawntrail is about environmental impacts of cerulean drilling, people will complain about yet another rehash of VII's Shinra. But I hope that if/when they do will also be when the story loops back to pull Jareck and the others of Tapper's Den back into the narrative. A single quest line objective where we ask for their opinions when learning about North Tural probably.

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SE has had the chance to make that kind of subplot about ceruleum's possible environmental impact for over a decade because Ul'dah has been drilling for it in their own backyard since 1.0.

It would be awkward if it suddenly becomes a problem when we already have had a zone completely devoted to ceruleum since ARR and seen the derricks since 1.0. It would be nice if they bring that stuff back to ARR zones and give us some Duskwight lore while they're at it since they don't exist at all outside ARR, but after giving us flying there I feel like they might be done.

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Originally Posted by MikkoAkure

SE has had the chance to make that kind of subplot about ceruleum's possible environmental impact for over a decade because Ul'dah has been drilling for it in their own backyard since 1.0.

It would be awkward if it suddenly becomes a problem when we already have had a zone completely devoted to ceruleum since ARR and seen the derricks since 1.0. It would be nice if they bring that stuff back to ARR zones and give us some Duskwight lore while they're at it since they don't exist at all outside ARR, but after giving us flying there I feel like they might be done.

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While I don't think that's what they're doing for exactly the reason you say, I do think you could pitch doing an environmantal impact angle for Shaaloani in a way that wouldn't bring in a 'hey wait a minute' response around the other ceruleum operations.

Specifically, the fact both of the ceruleum drilling operations we've been to are in places that are pretty dead. While there are lively deserts and lively parts of the Thanalan, Northern Thanalan isn't one of them, and Garlemald is pretty famously full of nothing but ice and hatred of all living things. If it turns out that ceruleum drilling blights the soil or something, it would make sense why that only comes up in Shaaloani, a place with light but healthy vegetation, but never before then.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

While I don't think that's what they're doing for exactly the reason you say, I do think you could pitch doing an environmantal impact angle for Shaaloani in a way that wouldn't bring in a 'hey wait a minute' response around the other ceruleum operations.

Specifically, the fact both of the ceruleum drilling operations we've been to are in places that are pretty dead. While there are lively deserts and lively parts of the Thanalan, Northern Thanalan isn't one of them, and Garlemald is pretty famously full of nothing but ice and hatred of all living things. If it turns out that ceruleum drilling blights the soil or something, it would make sense why that only comes up in Shaaloani, a place with light but healthy vegetation, but never before then.

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Well, big part of Garlean lore was that the land was already like that when they first arrived and had to survive off of it, and discovery of ceruleum and magitek is what basically turned things around. So it's definitely not ceruleum that's at fault for Garlemald's barren nature

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Originally Posted by Heroman3003

Well, big part of Garlean lore was that the land was already like that when they first arrived and had to survive off of it, and discovery of ceruleum and magitek is what basically turned things around. So it's definitely not ceruleum that's at fault for Garlemald's barren nature

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I think the point was moreso that "ceruleum blights the soil" would be a non-issue in Garlemald because it's already barren, rather than it being the cause of it - and that being part of the reason for why it didn't come up previously.

Look, I've had to deal with too many "If you live downstream of This Point, you need to Boil all your Water until we tell you not to" in the years that I have next to the twenty plus refineries that coupled with the fact that over and over again XIV has shown the body-and-mind warping effects of too much aspected aether concentrated in one locale or person, that the ceruleum drilling is sitting there like leaded gasoline waiting for a subplot to center around it. Even if it's just overcautious fears and debates.

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Originally Posted by Jade_Tyrant

I think the point was moreso that "ceruleum blights the soil" would be a non-issue in Garlemald because it's already barren, rather than it being the cause of it - and that being part of the reason for why it didn't come up previously.

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Yeah, this is what I meant. There's not much ecosystem to destroy in either of those places, so if that's a side-effect of ceruleum drilling, it makes sense why it wouldn't come up.

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Originally Posted by Denishia

Look, I've had to deal with too many "If you live downstream of This Point, you need to Boil all your Water until we tell you not to" in the years that I have next to the twenty plus refineries that coupled with the fact that over and over again XIV has shown the body-and-mind warping effects of too much aspected aether concentrated in one locale or person, that the ceruleum drilling is sitting there like leaded gasoline waiting for a subplot to center around it. Even if it's just overcautious fears and debates.

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That said, I actually didn't think of 'downstream effects' on places close to the drilling operations that aren't the sites themselves. That also makes some amount of sense for not coming up in the places we've been, but I feel like if one were so inclined to write it, there'd be some potential in an area near Garlemald specifically. Northern Thanalan still seems a bit too remote and empty of imperiled things, but being that Garlemald's operation was on a lake there actually would be a 'downstream'.

On point: the nation Wuk Lamat's brother wants to conquer hasn't been clarified, and the story is framed as him wanting to go after Aldenard / Ilsabard in general. The offscreen war with Garlemald during Shadowbringers and the Telophori / Final Days conflict that followed no doubt drained the military strength of all nations involved, which would make them easy pickings for anyone looking to invade (supposing their own nation wasn't hit by the Song of Oblivion).

Reprisals by former vassal states against Garlemald are a concern, but said former vassal states are probably more concerned with rebuilding at the moment; either way I don't expect it'll come into play until a later date (7.4+), if at all.

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Originally Posted by Heroman3003

Well, big part of Garlean lore was that the land was already like that when they first arrived and had to survive off of it, and discovery of ceruleum and magitek is what basically turned things around.

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To clarify: Garlemald has used ceruleum as heating fuel for centuries since its founding after the Corvosi pushed them out of Locus Amoenus / Corvos (the Lore Book(s) have an exact date, I think, but I don't have them). Solus (Emet-Selch) only introduced them to magitek ~60 years ago. Whatever process they use to refine it has very likely changed since, but it's been used for a long, long time.

Garlemald's barrenness is entirely a consequence of its frigid climate.

The drilling side effects would be different (again, personal regional experience is all the offshore drilling and that brand of environmental disaster especially when the other cornerstone economy is the shrimping fleet and other commercial fishing activity that isn't too happy when one of those oil rigs has a little accident.) And it is something about the world-building that vaguely pegs to me that the writers are Japanese where the mining for coal and oil is and was historically minuscule and the social conscience of power plants and energy production/environmental sign effects are dominated by nuclear power plants.

The impact is a bit different going through a region that has the miles of scarring from strip mining where you can see the slices of mountains missing like you do in the Northwestern area of the Great Plains or the depressed former coal mining regions that are so familiar a setting and trope to English-speaking writers thanks to either Appalachia or Northern England/Wales - and funnily enough I felt that zone that resonated with that particular feeling was Kholusia and Twine and not Northern Thanalan or Garlemald. Probably because the Eorzean setting is, if anything, at the start of the Industrial Revolution rather than post.

Two regions that Tural is drawing for inspiration are obviously the Amazon in Brazil and the Lower Great Plains into the Southwest of the US/Mexico - both regions where extensive detrimental environmental impact due to commercial resource gathering on massive scales have shaped and are shaping the landscape and cultures. And we see that real world inspiration in the wooden ceruleum drilling rigs in Shaalonai. But a driving factor in those dynamics was colonization and imperialism. Which I will find interesting to see if and how such topics are brought up and explored in Dawntrail, which as far as we know doesn't have that as the major internal factor. (Unless that's part of why the Not-Incas fell and tied to the mystery of Solution Nine).

But! Former Garlean provinces in Ilsabard were colonized and would be ripe for stories of "that flat straight brown mountain top/cliff didn't look like that fifty years ago for an obvious reason" and "yeah the Garleans and their tech brought economic prosperity - for a select few and mostly themselves and now that the industry as collapsed we're left with the poisoned remains and the mine that still on-fire". The curiosity for me is on how they frame the central political conflicts of Dawntrail and Tural on tradition versus progress with regards to environmental preservation and exploitation, because it won't be a straight copy of the Americas. And if a later expansion will go back to Ilsabard and the former conquered territories - or if the game never does so because Stormblood and the Bozjan/Werlyt portions of Shadowbringers have thoroughly exhausted the well of stories dealing with the effects of empire.