I know this will be controversial, and I know some of you think YOU will be the one to win the housing lottery. But statistically it's not true. There will be a lot more losers than winners.
This is where the problem lies, and why first come first serve is actually a superior system when it comes to freshly released wards.
The fact of the matter is that a multi-day long lottery will attract more player entries than a first come first serve race to the plots. Those that are only casually interested, and aren't willing to race on patch day, will have ample opportunity to enter- and thus there will be more competition for each plot.
For example: rather than having 5 first come first serve "racers" compete over a small plot within the first ten minutes of the servers going live, you now have 50 entries over the period of the lottery.
The math is simple: 4 disappointed players who raced to a house and were unable to get one VS 49 disappointed players who entered a lottery and lost.
Thank you for reading my TED talk.
P.S. I do think the lottery system has a use case, but that's only in regards to relocated plots. Where the additional disappointed players is actually preferential to the current system of having players (or even bots) sit and click for hours on end.
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02-19-2022, 04:12 PMLatornFirst Come First Serve is a system that will lead to less disappointed players.
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02-19-2022, 08:33 PMDeNada
I would rather it all being based on lottery.
You mentioned that FCFS leads to less players disappointed but at least more players would have an equal chance of winning a plot.
Whereas FCFS only favour the few players who are able to login during the initial rush and able to rush to a plot ahead of everyone else.
Not to mention other players with real life obligations will be excluded all together in a FCFS system. -
02-19-2022, 09:25 PMAzuri
The number of players who want a house doesn't change regardless of purchasing system. It's just that with one system most give up before even trying and with the other they at least get a fair chance.
I understand some are terrified of having fairer purchasing system since it destroys their advantage. But you should really stop coming up with thinly veiled attempts to justify it and simply admit that you want FCFS because it benefits you more. -
02-20-2022, 06:48 AMIts_Sam_My_Dude
I agree so much. At least if it was half FCFS and half Lotto, everyone that is disappointed if they didn't log on early enough can get their chance, (even though yep like 99% are not gonna get the house if its above the size of a small. I feel like all lotto at launch will just make odds worse as well with how many people will dogpile plots especially with bots and friends they pay. It feels like its just trying to show how many houses are open, when in reality they are not, and by the time all the lotto timers end within that period all will be bought out, giving players 0 chance to try for more than one house and making everything feel 1000000x worse when you lose. Lotto will be AMAZING months after compared to the random timer, but at launch that's a mega NO for me. FCFS at least has it so people will be able to instantly get their house, and if they don't they go to try for another. I've been trying to get a medium for about 2 years now, and now I just feel completely hopeless at this point and so demotivated considering I have poured hundreds of hours strictly into just decorating houses in this game. Also praying the new island will encourage people to demo if they only use their house for storage and gardening to clear up spaces. :(
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02-20-2022, 08:37 AMVerdeLuck
First come first serve is an inferior system. With FCFS I have to get up at 4am the day of the patch and fight a few hundred people for it before I go to work, or I have to fight bots and people with macros set up to click on a plot for 8 hours. I have exactly 0 chance of getting one if I don't do either of these.
With a lottery I have an equal chance as everyone else, which is better than no chance. I'd rather take a lottery system where I might not win as opposed to FCFS where I know I can't beat people whose entire life is this game and can afford to get up at ridiculous hours and click a plot all day. -
02-20-2022, 08:57 AMSeiyaSoiya
Yeah I don't think they thought the lottery system through
On week 1 99.99% of lottery entries will be from fc members, and 99.99% of the winners will forfeit their house because they already won one on another plot -
02-20-2022, 09:33 AMJojoya
First come first serve means players with better hardware/internet connections win the log in queue race and the rest lose out on housing.
It also makes life so much easier for the RMT flippers to get the prime plots they resell for significant amounts of real money.
I don't like the ward system but if SE is going to continue to stick with it at least the lottery becomes a thorn in the side of those exploiting the system for profit. Normal players and FCs have a better chance of getting a house than they would with first come first serve. -
02-20-2022, 10:04 AMIsh_Star
So the argument being presented is "more people will have a chance, so more people will be disappointed".
I think you're not accounting for the fact that most players are disappointed because they don't even have a chance in the first place under the FCFS system. -
02-20-2022, 10:05 AMSweetPete
Only one plot per person. Yeah FC’s have an advantage because they can have 100+ people on a single plot bid but guess what? They can only bid once. You can’t bid for multiple plots. So lottery is the way to go.
FCFS puts way to much pressure on people. Some don’t want to wake up that early and some have work that we can’t change to be able to log in to try to get a house. The server can crash as well. Don’t need any of that. Let it be fair for everyone. Also some people don’t want to move to Ishgard and want to stay where they are. Less competition.
I hope they don’t give us any FCFS wards. All lottery. It’s fair this way. -
02-20-2022, 10:20 AMSeiyaSoiyais that true? an FC cannot bid for more than 1 plot?Quote:
Originally Posted by SweetPete
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02-20-2022, 11:16 AMIsh_Star
FCs can bid for more than 1 plot under either system. (Because the lottery only looks at the player character, not the FC.)
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02-20-2022, 11:19 AMSeiyaSoiyathought so, so massive fcs will just bid for every single plot, making it hard for personal people to get their houses via lotteryQuote:
Originally Posted by Ish_Star
then when saturday rolls and they get the house they wanted, and they win multiple ones, all the other ones they won will be forfeit, and people will have to enter that lottery again for the next week
...and then the RMTers will start abusing this system -
02-20-2022, 11:24 AMSweetPeteNo no that’s not what I meant. What I meant was everyone in an FC can make one bid on a plot but only one plot will be given to that FC. People make it sound like an FC can get more than one plot.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeiyaSoiya
The lottery is fair all the way around. -
02-20-2022, 11:27 AMSweetPeteI don’t think they can win multiple plots. If they win one then the others will go to the other winners that win. Also the plots will be split. Some wards will be FC only wards and the others will be personal only wards . So if you are going for a personal house you won’t be competing with FCs. Just other single personal plot wanting people.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeiyaSoiya
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02-21-2022, 05:15 AMJojoyaFCs will no longer have an effect on players trying to obtain personal houses. Wards will be designated either for FC purchase or personal purchase. You'll only be competing against other players trying to get a personal house.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeiyaSoiya
As for FCs trying to purchase, you greatly over estimate the resources that most legitimate FCs have. Remember that 100 entries even for the cheapest smalls means the FC needs to come up with 300 million in advance (even though if they win they'll only need to pay 3 million). As the price tag goes up, so does the amount of gil that will be needed for multiple entries.
It's not the big FCs that have that sort of gil lying around. It's the solo FCs that do and they're generally only going to have 4 members (since 4 are needed to make a purchase). -
02-21-2022, 10:17 AMBladehawk
Just curious. If 2 different Fc members bid on 2 different plots for an fc and both win the plots they bid on does one of them lose their gil when they are unable to claim their 2nd winning fc lottery spot?
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02-21-2022, 12:51 PMShibiThat was addressed in the Live Letter, with Yoshi suggesting it's going to be better for all the FC members to enter the lotto on a single property, rather than multiple and lose the gil. But nothing stops them spreading out if they want.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bladehawk
So yes, one loses their gil - or just takes it as their own house if it's a mixed ward.
It's possible there might also be an exploit here. A person, any person, or in this case Person 2 who also won, drops their FC before claiming the property and places a discord ad to join anyone's FC and sell them their winning ticket for 30-300 million gil. They join the homeless FC, are given buy rights, and accept their winning ticket. It will be interesting to see if SE can stop this. -
02-21-2022, 04:19 PMFenril7
They (SE) seems to think their isn’t a demand for FCFS. I’m willing to bet if they open all 1,440 plots in Ishgard at the same time, they all would be full within a day. Watch SE do something crazy and only open up a few wards for FCFS. If they do that, they are out of touch with their players base.
We need more than a few token wards open to FCFS. Anything less than half of all wards would be unacceptable! -
02-21-2022, 04:40 PMMisutoraru
Nothing wrong with a fairer system that allow more players to take part.
FCFS, Placard mean a lot of players just give up before trying, lottery system can’t be worse than that -
02-22-2022, 08:02 AMJojoyaThey know there is some demand for FCFS. That's why they asked for feedback.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fenril7
The issue is whether FCFS is in the best interest of the game at a time when demand greatly outstrips supply, and RMT has huge advantages in FCFS across multiple accounts thanks to use of script bots. Remove FCFS in favor of all lottery and RMT advantage is significantly reduced though not completely eliminated.
Honestly, SE need to pick one system or the other. Having both significantly stacks the odds in favor of players who have the spare time to participate in both, and that definitely favors RMT most of all since time is meaningless to a bot. -
02-22-2022, 03:43 PMFenril7There will be 1,440 new Ishgard plots. With 6 large and 14 medium, 40 smalls PER ward, are you telling me you couldn’t get a house with FCFS?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jojoya
Even if 1/2 of the new wards were FCFS that is 72 large, 168 medium and 480 small houses. -
02-22-2022, 05:28 PMDeNadaJust see the below reddit thread during 4.2 Shirogane housing for posterity, I rest my case.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fenril7
https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comme...sh_megathread/
Some choice quotes from the thread itself:
At 6:14AM EST every single house on Balmung was sold in every ward of every housing area lol
Wow. All 720 plots on Lamia gone in 10 minutes
Shirogane sold out on Sargatanas by about 6:15/16 AM EST -
02-22-2022, 06:51 PMArazehl
I swear I think some haven't even experienced housing FCFS of the past. Go look at the archives of the post in the forums from previous housing launches. Players complaining about game crashing right as they loaded into the game, couldn't get through the queue at all even to try for a plot or the plots were all purchased within 10 minutes.
I would imagine 80% of the players would not even get a plot this round through FCFS and you'll be right back in these forums cursing the system you wanted to keep.
With the growth of the game over the past year, there are more players determined to get a plot which means that drops your chances of obtaining one FCFS, since they are converting many of them to a Lottery System. Even if they left them ALL FCFS, your chances will still be weak due to the same issues of past launches for housing and the growth in the player base. So I think the lesser evil will be the Lottery. -
02-22-2022, 07:26 PMMisutoraru
Last I check my server Cerberus have a population over 100k, even only if 10% are active(which I am certain is not since we have see only 10k queue when EW launch). The Ishgard housing would only be able to cater to less than 15% of that active player base
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02-23-2022, 03:01 AMVerdeLuckI think you really underestimate how many people play this game and how many players and FCs want a house. 1400 plots is a drop in the bucket and will get snapped up immediatelyQuote:
Originally Posted by Fenril7
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02-23-2022, 08:37 AMJojoyaBack in 5.3, SE added 720 new houses per world. Some worlds were sold out within 15 minutes while players were still waiting in 4000+ log in queues. Every world was sold out within an hour.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fenril7
The occasional random plot was immediately cycled back to vacant but with purchase timer as the initial purchaser immediately relocated so the only way to get a plot was to go back to placard camping against all the others who also missed out. I very clearly remember the crowds that day because I was trying to help out friends who weren't lucky by seeking out the plots that had fewer people camping while they sat at the first one they got to.
That's the sort of demand housing has. Either you're quick or you lose out.
Keep in mind that the population explosion from the WoW exodus didn't even occur until 5.5. All those newish players are also looking to get their crack at housing along with all those players who missed out in 5.3 and haven't been able to get lucky since. 1440 all FCFS won't help out. 5000 all FCFS probably wouldn't.
Since you're so fond of using bold when you clearly have no experience on the subject:
Players will absolutely miss out if FCFS is used if they aren't lucky enough to get logged in immediately when servers come up.
That was actually Shirogane in 4.1 when there was no personal purchase moratorium and not in 4.2, when new wards were added to all housing districts.Quote:
Originally Posted by DeNada
4.2 wasn't that bad because there was a personal purchase moratorium. Even Balmung had several plots still available when the moratorium was lifted though they were gone pretty fast after.
But you're still correct - that 4.1 experience is a far more accurate picture of what players should expect if FCFS were used now. -
02-27-2022, 01:57 AMnot_ya_wifyI whole-heartedly agree. I think the original system of racing to the plot was the best system because you had a pretty good chance of getting the plot you desired IF you were well prepared. I did this twice and got the exact houses I wanted for my FC and personal house. I got my desired large plot for my FC during Shirogane Savage and my desired medium plot in Lavender Beds for my personal when new wards were released and both times, nobody even showed up to my plot until I already had the house for like 5 minutes. I wasn't lucky at all. I spent weeks marking the fastest way to the plot and practicing how to run there from the city state aetherite. That system made it so that the person who wanted the plot the most and was willing to spend considerable time and planning was most likely to get the plot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Latorn
The random timer system was a really bad choice because it made the acquisition random (just like the lottery system) and had the additional effect of making you sit there for 10 hours and spam the plaquards while more and more competition arrived to the plaquards. People here really love RNG but my personal opinion is that RNG is awful.
I compare this to mount farming. I had to do Seiryu Ex over 60 times to get the blue dog. It didn't't matter how long I was in the party. I could spend hours farming, then someone gets the mount and leaves, so we still need to get 8 dogs again. Then someone new joins, gets lucky and leaves and I just continue with this 1/8 chance of getting a dog and it doesn't get better. Compare that to a loot master party where mounts are handed out in order of arrival to the party: even if I join as the 8th party member, I know I have to run only enough times for 8 drops to occur and I know exactly when I'm in line to get the mount. I prefer that because it's logical and fair. But people don't wanna join loot master parties because they think RNG is better, because they hope they can get the dog first drop and leave and then party gets to do an unknowable number of runs.
It's the same with housing. Those who prepare better should have a better chance at getting the house they want than someone who just walks in and gets lucky without having done any work. But I guess I have a different conception of what "fair" means than others -
02-27-2022, 10:51 AMFenril7I would like some bad luck protect. After losing the raffle 10-20 times, by that time all the houses will be gone.Quote:
Originally Posted by DeNada
Honestly the best chance to own a house is server transfer when the new servers gets in the summer. So what would it be, get a house on a new server, or stay on your old server with your friends? Sad we can’t have both. -
03-01-2022, 10:40 PMTragicsGirl
I never want to click again for hours, let's go full lottery, and keep it that way.
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03-02-2022, 12:26 AMNecrotica
I think first come first served can be great.
With infinite instanced housing.
Just do it already. You have enough money.