Dex/Parry tiers - definitive testing methodology needed

So I've waited and waited for someone to do more definitive testing on dex tiers for parry, but my patience has run out. Solution - I'll do it myself.

I'll commit to doing a SOLID methodology for honing in on the dex tiers. I will propose what I plan to do, and all you theorycrafters out there can correct me and tell me exactly what to do. In return, all the raw data you want. Win win.

My plan is to test parry at current stats (512 parry, 218 dex). Then respec and put 1 points into dex and repeat. Then another. And another until 30 full dex (248 on last point). I feel this would give me the mystical breaking point for that ~3% white-whale parry rate we all are chasing. I plan on using a 35-40 lvl mobs with no dot capabilities, rounding up three of them, getting them directly in front of me, and letting the hits wrack up.

Here is what you are working with:
http://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodest...acter/2255267/

I currently have three i70 crafted accessories. I can swap all three of those out for no dex pieces. In addition, I am willing to spend a respec (currently 30 vit).

I tested this on sheep outside Dragonhead earlier today. Ignoring all the noise (misses), I had 2334 hits with 563 parries which = 24.1% parry rate. This is along the lines of Ninjitsu's data, so I wasn't missing any parries from having two sheep slightly to the side. I understand this is not nearly close enough to a significant sample.

What I need from you:
- How many hits are necessary per parse? (Don't be ridiculous and say 100k)
- How many trials per dex point are necessary for conclusive results?
- Is there a better approach or more productive methodology?

This is a goodwill mission for all the Warriors out there, but let me be clear that I'm not some mathlete carebear (no offense to anyone). Don't be counterproductive/tangential in this thread or I will just parse my own way and swim in the data myself like Scrooge McDuck.

As far as I've tested on both PLD and WAR. Both sitting at 247 DEX is the optimal choice, because you can dump a few points into DEX to hit that plateau while using STR/DEX accessories. However if you do not plan to make Gryphonskin stuff you can pretty much just ignore anything regarding DEX cause it will be too much of a manual stat commitment to reach that plateau.

With that said Paladin double dips from the DEX whilst Warrior with similar DEX still hardly see a big jump in Parry difference. Because as Paladin I notice 2-3% increase in Block and 2% increase in Parry which does Add up, top that with using Shield Block I could say like 7 out of 8 hits are a block during that time which could effectively mean 26-30% Dmg reduction (Still haven't bought R1 Shield). Whereas Warriors... they seriously need to borrow something like Keen Edge from Lancers to start seeing real dependable parries, cause as it stands now Featherfoot is our BEST defensive CD...

just wanted to say thanks and looking forward to results

Maintain a static Parry rate while adjusting DEX.

What is your base Parry rate on X mob? (Fight it naked without any allotment - account for any Parry+ on your weapon; Make sure X Mob is always LV--)

How much DEX does it take to see an increase in your Parry rate? (Clear your attribute allotment and spec +1 DEX at a time until a definitive adjustment is observed)

Does monster level/family/accuracy effect Parry rate? (We need to account for the possibility that a monster's stats could change the rate you effectively Parry -> Monster Acc? - so repeat test on Y Mob @LV--)

Repeat this process with a static DEX rating while instead adjusting Parry.

@Namasu

You need way too much Dex for Darksteel Scutum to overcome the Block Rate iLvl 90 ones provide. based on my observation, not definitive test, that 1 Block Rate = 1 Dex. The scutum would increase your block strength by 3-4% however it will make your Shield Block way less capable of reaching 7/8 block it will probably go down to 6/8. And as far as Coil 5 goes blocking that extra 3-4% doesn't matter... Block it matters. As an advice you would want to based your test hovering around 247 Dex decreasing and increasing around that value.

As a gladiator/paladin you would want to get more Dex till 247 after that you really have no option of getting any more as far as iLvl 90 restrictions go. Next would be Parry rating.

Given all the data thus far pointing to the next dex tier being closer to the mid 240s than the mid 210s, my first few parses may be 5 dex points at a time to expedite results.

That aside, please leave the observations and brostatistics out of this. The data collected by others thus far is at the point that EVERYONE has positive observations around that point. I am going for the EXACT numbers. Do it right and you only have to do it once. Do it wrong and someone else is going to have to parse all this again in the future.

I wasn't directly addressing you, nor did I mean to push you out of the thread. Apologies if you took offense. Your test sounds useful for all those PALs out there.

I just want too keep focus on the purpose of this thread: to find the exact dex tier for parry chance from dex range 215-250 that causes the big parry chance jump shown in Ninjitsu's data.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ruckus

I wasn't directly addressing you, nor did I mean to push you out of the thread. Apologies if you took offense. Your test sounds useful for all those PALs out there.

I just want too keep focus on the purpose of this thread: to find the exact dex tier for parry chance from dex range 215-250 that causes the big parry chance jump shown in Ninjitsu's data.

---

No offense taken -edited my previous post-, I just don't have the time to go through each dex point to figure out the tier. Your parsing will be much more useful than mine in the long run. In the short term, I want to at least test how dumping at least +45 dex in HQ lvl70 accessories can benefit those that have the time and dedication. If time permit, I'll do w/e else I think will be useful in term of dex vs block vs parry.

Also don't forget if you have a bard in party which, in most cases, you would you would have 3% buff in Dex hence you need 240 Dex on your character sheet to hit the amount same as needing 393 STR on character sheet to achieve next Block/Parry strength increase. I play both Warrior and Paladin though most of the testing on Warrior is off Coil mainly focusing on mitigation cause group says, Why Warrior and make our life hard =P.

The dex thingy was already done by someone already. And it is as exact as it goes to maximize every single stats, cause going beyond means nothing cause you can't reach another plateau, just as stated it takes 45 Dex + 7-9 Dex manual stated/materia using Gryphonskins/ Crafted Accessories. Without them looking into Dex value is futile cause you sure aren't going to put 30 stats into Dex and still for short from the plateau and risking 400+ HP.

As for someone already testing this, care to link? I'm confident you can't. If you can, I'd be stoked because I wouldn't have to spend the time doing it.

Ninjiitsu did a great dex/parry test, but the only conclusive result was that there is almost assuredly a DEX tier somewhere between 216 and 246. Where that specific cap lies however, remains to be found. Many others have put there DEX at 246+ to assure they hit that increase, but for all they know that DEX cap could be 241. That means 5-6 spec points that could be VIT while still obtaining the DEX tier.

No one has publicly posted the specific DEX tiers for parry chance. Yes, there have been numerous 'omg i has 247 DEX and i parry more' posts, with which no one disagrees. Your posts are falling into the later category and you are failing to see the true importance of knowing that specific number.

I am simply trying to find one specific parry tier - the most important one for WARs at the moment.

Slightly side-topiced, mentioning the HQ Darksteel Scutum -> someone said Bulwark was much more effective with it. I was under the impression that Bulwark increases your block rate by 60% of whatever your block rate actually is rather than adding a flat 60% onto the total chance to block. This would mean it was equally good for all shield types, even bucklers.

Has anyone confirmed this? From the napkin maths I saw about block chance I can't see the scutum ever beating the total mitigation of the Holy Shield +1, or even a similar level Kite Shield.

Soooo any news? ^^

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ruckus

So I've waited and waited for someone to do more definitive testing on dex tiers for parry, but my patience has run out. Solution - I'll do it myself.

---

Are you really interested in the actual tiers, assuming there are tiers, or are you interested in the general formula / amount of parry% per dex?

If the latter, then you don't need to test every single point of Dex to find cutoffs. Just test a super low value, a super high value, and a few points in between using a high-parry set of gear. Repeat these tests with a low-parry set of gear to look for any weird Dex x Parry scaling.

That's it. Tbh that's probably a good idea to start with to identify tiers anyways, because if you can approximate how much parry% you're supposed to be getting from Dex, you can more easily pinpoint when you're not getting the results you expect from a +/- 2 Dex switch.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ruckus

I wasn't directly addressing you, nor did I mean to push you out of the thread. Apologies if you took offense. Your test sounds useful for all those PALs out there.

I just want too keep focus on the purpose of this thread: to find the exact dex tier for parry chance from dex range 215-250 that causes the big parry chance jump shown in Ninjitsu's data.

---

His data does not show a big parry chance jump. I don't remember what it was exactly, but it showed dex tiers of 14.5 to 22 I think.

I'm not really playing much anymore, but if you run data collection, I'll see if I can make the numbers work. 1000 hit (hits, exclude misses) will be fine for parses but we'll need several data points to make determinations. If you can get them approximately every 10 dex starting at 217 and going up to whatever you want to stop at. If you could do multiple tests at each point, that'd be better, but it might be workable without.

I suggest that the test be done in tiers of 9/7 Dex (Gryphonskin/Materia 4 Dex). Cause realistically speaking, I'm full in Gryphonskin and in PT Dex buffed I'd already achieve the said value of 247 being full Vit Allocated. Same goes for my Warrior with current gear already sitting beyond 405 STR in PT buff, getting the last few ones would meant that my Paladin will be pass 405 and my warrior will be pass 405 without being in party.

Well, thanks for the input. To update, I am 30+ hrs in and still going.

I am doing 5k hit parses to start. If I see an anomaly or possibly jump in parry rate, I either retest or let the parse go to 10k (or 15k on some tests).

I just broke 100k hits total and have several more tests to go. I should be around 175k hits total when complete.

I will get some information up later this weekend for everyone to crunch. Preliminary results from the data lean strongly towards strength-esque tiers (40.5) rather than the 14.5-22 that was mentioned, but I may be reading it all wrong. I will let you all decide when the data is complete.

Very cool. Just finished my 5th crafted accessory looking forward to your results.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ruckus

Well, thanks for the input. To update, I am 30+ hrs in and still going.

I am doing 5k hit parses to start. If I see an anomaly or possibly jump in parry rate, I either retest or let the parse go to 10k (or 15k on some tests).

---

Include all results. Going to 10k doesn't really do much over 5k. You need to do approximately 100k tests to bring the results under a +-1% margin of error for a single data point. To determine thresholds, it doesn't have to be that precise. We can use a series of points and probability ranges to determine what the actual parry rate is or is highly likely at a given point. Make sure that your parry stat is the same for all tests. It's much easier that way, but if you did change it that may be something that can be accounted for. It was a problem with Ninjiitsu's data.

I wasn't able to parse today due to moved raid times, but here is some of the data so far:

512 parry, 209 dex - 5302 hits, 1346 parries (25.39%)
512 parry, 218 dex - 5077 hits, 1252 parries (24.66%)
512 parry, 220 dex - 5151 hits, 1256 parries (24.38%)
512 parry, 225 dex - 5166 hits, 1328 parries (25.70%)
512 parry, 230 dex - 5733 hits, 1500 parries (26.16%)
512 parry, 230 dex - 10758 hits, 2722 parries (25.30%)
512 parry, 235 dex - 5338 hits, 1302 parries (24.39%)
512 parry, 240 dex - 5730 hits, 1450 parries (25.31%)
512 parry, 241 dex - 11735 hits, 3103 parries (26.44%)
512 parry, 242 dex - 5221 hits, 1371 parries (26.26%)
512 parry, 243 dex - 10071 hits, 2571 parries (25.53%)
512 parry, 244 dex - 16154 hits, 4182 parries (25.89%)
512 parry, 245 dex - 10510 hits, 2807 parries (26.70%)
512 parry, 246 dex - 5268 hits, 1406 parries (26.69%)

Testing above 246 and below 209 sometime this week. Will post results.

Im not the smartest warrior out there but i cant see any DEX "wall" or "roof" or w/ever we want to call it.

But i wonder if DEX gets checked against the target's STR (and parry against accuracy).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ruckus

I wasn't able to parse today due to moved raid times, but here is some of the data so far:

---

Do you by chance have the crits for each test? They don't show up as regular hits. May not be needed, might be helpful.

Pretty messy dataset. Can dump linear regression on it based on deviation from minimum value,

f(x) = 0.400x + 24.01
r^2 = 0.357

I'm wondering if it's a linear increase in DPS relative. I noticed that my block strength with the same shield decreased as I leveled through Toto-Rak, which suggests to me that it might be all normalized by the base level value. If so, the 512 parry would suggest a 15.99% base parry rate with base dex and base parry. Just a hypothesis -- should be easy enough to test using a weathered axe and no +dex or +parry gear.

Currently at 347 STR and 191 DEX, focusing on getting ilevel 90 tank accessories and not the ilevel 70 crafted DPS ones, I parry 23% of a hit and I seem to parry about 22% of the time according to the same model you use.. If I dropped all my tank accessories (assuming all ilevel 90) I would sacrifice 25 VIT and 15 Parry (this includes melds into DPS accessories) to gain 2% more parry mit and roughly 5% increased parry chance which is basically .1% flat mitigation? I can see getting STR and some DPS stats for damage/enmity and self healing, but DEX seems like a giant waste of points just to increase the chance that you mitigate a % of a single hit at least Parry just inherently comes on tanking gear. I highly doubt that full ilevel 70 crafted accessories melded for tanking will net the same effective HP a tank has with pure tank gear.

If you just look at the 25 VIT alone, the DPS accessory setup needs to equate to 6.104% more mitigation just to equalize the loss in the VIT, as far as effective HP goes. Obviously that isn't coming from the Parry boosts, not sure on the self heals, that could use some testing.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Gamemako

Pretty messy dataset. Can dump linear regression on it based on deviation from minimum value,

f(x) = 0.400x + 24.01
r^2 = 0.357

I'm wondering if it's a linear increase in DPS relative. I noticed that my block strength with the same shield decreased as I leveled through Toto-Rak, which suggests to me that it might be all normalized by the base level value. If so, the 512 parry would suggest a 15.99% base parry rate with base dex and base parry. Just a hypothesis -- should be easy enough to test using a weathered axe and no +dex or +parry gear.

---

It's a step function so your linear regression isn't going to look good.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coramac

It's a step function so your linear regression isn't going to look good.

---

Is there any evidence there of a step function? I certainly don't see any in that data or in any data previously collected.

//EDIT: Data visualized:

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9819/47it.png

See anything there suggesting a step anywhere?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Gamemako

Is there any evidence there of a step function? I certainly don't see any in that data or in any data previously collected.

//EDIT: Data visualized:

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9819/47it.png

See anything there suggesting a step anywhere?

---

Everything in this game that has been analyzed has worked as a step function. While it may not necessarily be true that this follows, you should know better when dealing with probabilities than to use the method you are using.

Yes, I do see evidence of step function here. There appears to be a significant break with the testing around 240ish. The only issue is whether there is a second break point earlier (which I don't think there is anymore, but Niinjitsu's data indicated there likely was). You do understand that the we're going to see a roughly normal distribution (trials aren't held constant) about the expected value right?

Are you telling me what you showed doesn't look like a step function? Because it most certainly does.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coramac

Do you by chance have the crits for each test? They don't show up as regular hits. May not be needed, might be helpful.

---

Unfortunately not. I am parsing all tonight. I plan to do several 1k trials at each dex point per your previous post. I will record the crits this time.

Any other suggestions before I kick it off?

Looks like a step function. From how it appears, it looks like 14 Dex increments starting from 211 to reach the next % level.

The 209 run is a little strange unless 24% is the floor.

211 - 24%
225 - 25%
239 - 26%
253 - 27%

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coramac

Everything in this game that has been analyzed has worked as a step function.

---

Uh, nothing does that we know of except parry reduction and damage spread. Skill speed does not. Crit rate does not. All damage functions (STR, WD, DTR effects on damage) do not. HP does not, MP does not, healing amount does not, etc, etc, etc. Parry reduction appears to do so, increasing by strength tier; and damage spread appears to do so, increasing as a function of ceiling(damage/20). That's it. These both seem to be rounded for display reasons.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coramac

Yes, I do see evidence of step function here. There appears to be a significant break with the testing around 240ish.

---

A step increase from what to what? That value is less than 3 other points and nearly identical to another, recorded from the very first data point (i.e. it's lower than the one recorded at 209). There is no subsequent step, as you see from 243-244 tests. There is nothing there. The only thing you see is the grouping becoming tighter due to doubled sample size.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ruckus

Any other suggestions before I kick it off?

---

I know it takes a long time, but this data makes it rather clear that you'll need 10,000 hits per trial... I would not expect nearly such a wide variance with the number of trials already done, but there you have it.

//EDIT: Also, please parse baseline -- 341 parry and 193 dex. If you don't, I'll set it up tomorrow and run overnight.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Gamemako

//EDIT: Also, please parse baseline -- 341 parry and 193 dex. If you don't, I'll set it up tomorrow and run overnight.

---

Doing it right now. Thanks for the input.

//EDIT: It will be 341 parry and 192 dex, but I figure same difference.

Preliminary baseline data in case it helps.


Parry Dex Hits Crits Parries
341 192 1003 43 99
341 192 1006 57 97
341 192 1009 51 87
341 192 1004 51 92
341 192 1000 61 109

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ruckus

Preliminary baseline data in case it helps.

---

Excellent, thanks. Looks like 10% to me. Interesting.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ruckus

Preliminary baseline data in case it helps.

---

Great! :D

So we've now got a baseline of about 10% Parry rate (341 Parry, 192 Dex) and a starting point for testing at ~24.5% (512 Parry, 209 Dex)

We need to rule out the Parry stat's effect on Parry rate at some point so that we can reliably determine the weighting of +Dex to +Parry.
Keeping Dex at 192 and doing a similar set of tests for increasing amounts of Parry (up to the 512 parry you tested above) would help and shouldn't be too tricky to setup gearwise, just involve a bit more time-consuming testing.

The previous data above suggests that the impact of 17 Dex would be slight (+0.5% if that), so we're currently looking at ~0.08 increase in Parry Chance per point of Parry Stat (assuming that the progression is linear, it might be stepped!) which roughly ties in with what I've seen mentioned before. But it would be great to get this more reliably confirmed...? ;)

(Any/All testing is greatly appreciated!!) :)

Might be more to it than that.

Assuming 0.08 per Parry - 341 would give 27% by itself. - but between 341 and 512 it works.

Great job so far Ruckus. I'm very curious to know if they work in Tiers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ruckus

I wasn't able to parse today due to moved raid times, but here is some of the data so far:

512 parry, 209 dex - 5302 hits, 1346 parries (25.39%)
512 parry, 218 dex - 5077 hits, 1252 parries (24.66%)
512 parry, 220 dex - 5151 hits, 1256 parries (24.38%)
512 parry, 225 dex - 5166 hits, 1328 parries (25.70%)
512 parry, 230 dex - 5733 hits, 1500 parries (26.16%)
512 parry, 230 dex - 10758 hits, 2722 parries (25.30%)
512 parry, 235 dex - 5338 hits, 1302 parries (24.39%)
512 parry, 240 dex - 5730 hits, 1450 parries (25.31%)
512 parry, 241 dex - 11735 hits, 3103 parries (26.44%)
512 parry, 242 dex - 5221 hits, 1371 parries (26.26%)
512 parry, 243 dex - 10071 hits, 2571 parries (25.53%)
512 parry, 244 dex - 16154 hits, 4182 parries (25.89%)
512 parry, 245 dex - 10510 hits, 2807 parries (26.70%)
512 parry, 246 dex - 5268 hits, 1406 parries (26.69%)

Testing above 246 and below 209 sometime this week. Will post results.

---

Could you retest:
512 parry, 230 dex
512 parry, 235 dex
512 parry, 245 dex
512 parry, 246 dex

I'm showing 25% parry through 240 dex and a step up to 26% after. I'm a little concerned at the number of points there are outside 1 stdev. While step does fit better than a linear model, it does have a WECO violation, albeit extremely small. I suspect we're missing something or that there is some error in the parser.

Any updates on this? I know it got lost here on the forums.

Thank you for the effort and input from everyone in the thread.

Found an HP some weeks ago, that seems to be quite accurate about STR-Tiers:

http://valk.dancing-mad.com/?page_id=227

I hope this will help.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YuiSasaki

Found an HP some weeks ago, that seems to be quite accurate about STR-Tiers:

http://valk.dancing-mad.com/?page_id=227

I hope this will help.

---

Pretty sure everyone is familiar with this "data". The problem is that there have been many tests with better methodology since the game has released that have proven some things incorrect from that site, which gathered its data through beta and very minimal tests compared to today.

For example there are people who state that 240/241 DEX is the tier, rather than 243 like STR. Shrug.

However, thank you. You cared enough to find data to help everyone and you made sure everyone knew about it. You're awesome (no sarcasm).