LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

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Originally Posted by Neoyoshi

During a content lull and in between Expansions and during some major big game releases like FF16, Baldurs Gate and Starfield? - FF14 is in decline?

Please tell us more; website and perceived user perception that may as be this manifest:

https://i.imgur.com/tkLxoyy.jpg

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Exactly. Players played Baldurs Gate and realized how bad FF14 is in comparison and therefore quit.

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Originally Posted by Noumenon

Exactly. Players played Baldurs Gate and realized how bad FF14 is in comparison and therefore quit.

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Correction

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Players played Baldurs Gate and realized how bad 99% of games are in comparison.

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You're welcome

Also FFXIV is so bad according to you but you'll gladly RMT in it as you've admitted multiple times on this forum to take "advantage" of ffxiv players

make it make sense my guy

I looked up the previous chart made in 2022 and it shows lower participation numbers for the last column (2022Q4) compared to the same time period (2022Q4) in the most recent chart (2023). This means the last column in the most recent chart (2023Q2) is likely underreporting the number of active players. Additionally, look at the number of green (final/quit) characters in the old chart in column 2022Q3. The number of green characters decreases by half for the same quartile (2022Q3) in the newer chart.

https://livedoor.blogimg.jp/luckyban...4/d4565519.png

https://livedoor.blogimg.jp/luckyban...c/6c67dc74.png

If the data is skewed in a similar manner as it was before, the number of green characters in column 2023Q1 is going to shrink dramatically in the next chart, and the total number of active players in column 2023Q2 will increase in the next chart.

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Originally Posted by Reinha

I looked up the previous chart made in 2022 and it shows lower participation numbers for the last column (2022Q4) compared to the same time period (2022Q4) in the most recent chart (2023). This means the last column in the most recent chart (2023Q2) is likely underreporting the number of active players. Additionally, look at the number of green (final/quit) characters in the old chart in column 2022Q3. The number of green characters decreases by half for the same quartile (2022Q3) in the newer chart.

https://livedoor.blogimg.jp/luckyban...4/d4565519.png

https://livedoor.blogimg.jp/luckyban...c/6c67dc74.png

If the data is skewed in a similar manner as it was before, the number of green characters in column 2023Q1 is going to shrink dramatically in the next chart, and the total number of active players in column 2023Q2 will increase in the next chart.

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I hope you noticed that every single bar moved upwards from ShB and early EW.

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Originally Posted by Noumenon

I hope you noticed that every single bar moved upwards from ShB and early EW.

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You can also see a relative change compared to other columns.

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Originally Posted by Reinha

You can also see a relative change compared to other columns.

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I really hope you're not trying to say that 2022 Q4 is now higher than 2022 Q3. Please reread the graph very carefully and pay attention to which quarters are labeled and which are not.

There was such a very big hype with EW that a steep fall-off is not that surprising. But beyond that this might actually be good news, maybe the devs will finally do more than the standard boring routine. Maybe healers will finally get to play the game ?

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Originally Posted by Noumenon

I really hope you're not trying to say that 2022 Q4 is now higher than 2022 Q3. Please reread the graph very carefully and pay attention to which quarters are labeled and which are not.

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Read my post and you won't be so confused about what I said.

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Originally Posted by Reinha

Read my post and you won't be so confused about what I said.

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No, you just misinterpreted the graph, the count went up for every quarter.

Anecdotal, but...

I know a fair few people who stopped playing because they felt they got what they wanted out of the MSQ after 6.0, and were satisfied with the ending, so they just stopped playing.

Population declines are inevitable near the end of an expansion, and perpetual growth is an absurdity, especially after the end of a 10-year story arc. As long as the game's population is healthy, that's what's important.

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Originally Posted by Noumenon

No, you just misinterpreted the graph, the count went up for every quarter.

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i hope you understand that the playerbase was not increasing during the drought periods of every expansion and was actively decreasing which that fact alone proves how untrustworthy the graph is for how the playerbase is doing.

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Originally Posted by Reinha

I looked up the previous chart made in 2022 and it shows lower participation numbers for the last column (2022Q4) compared to the same time period (2022Q4) in the most recent chart (2023). This means the last column in the most recent chart (2023Q2) is likely underreporting the number of active players. Additionally, look at the number of green (final/quit) characters in the old chart in column 2022Q3. The number of green characters decreases by half for the same quartile (2022Q3) in the newer chart.


If the data is skewed in a similar manner as it was before, the number of green characters in column 2023Q1 is going to shrink dramatically in the next chart, and the total number of active players in column 2023Q2 will increase in the next chart.

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LB did state in his blog that he hadn't been able to fully analyze the Q2 numbers at the time he updated the graph. That's why I have brought up the question of when the data pulled. If he's using data he pulled with his census data (May 20th but patch 6.4 was May 23rd), the lack of players with new achievements makes sense.

But even in the quarters prior to that, there has been a slowly increasing number of active players not earning new achievements and that has started with EW launch. I suspect the adjusted Q2 bar will continue that pattern. It's still hard to say what it means since those who display achievements are self-selected.

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Originally Posted by Noumenon

I hope you noticed that every single bar moved upwards from ShB and early EW.

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Yes. COVID lockdown and WoW content creator exodus dragging followers in their wake to inflate active player numbers. We've talked about these things already.

Now the game numbers are rebounding from the outlier situation and seem to be heading toward where the game was at Shadowbringer's release. What we really need to be looking at would be the Dawntrail release numbers but those are still about 9-11 months away.

In the meantime, chances are good that LB will be publishing a new census toward the end of next week (don't know if he will be updating the achievement graph at the same time). Have fun chewing on the new data.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

Yes. COVID lockdown and WoW content creator exodus dragging followers in their wake to inflate active player numbers. We've talked about these things already.

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You don't even understand the comment.

Every once in a while, I like to reminisce about that time that FFXIV sold out.

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Originally Posted by Bonoki

Every once in a while, I like to reminisce about that time that FFXIV sold out.

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And it will simply never happen again.

Because it appears this game owes its success to other MMOs imploding on themselves than any actual merit on the part of FF14.

:)

Official SE Q2 backs this up, just staying.

"MMO Segment Down". Yeah it's simple business speak but for them to actually admit it means it has to be considerable enough to actually warrant talking about.

https://i.imgur.com/rmMWXLd.jpg

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Originally Posted by Deceptus

Official SE Q2 backs this up, just staying.

"MMO Segment Down". Yeah it's simple business speak but for them to actually admit it means it has to be considerable enough to actually warrant talking about.

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From a discussion I saw elsewhere, the very simple answer to this would be that the previous year they released a new expansion, and this year they did not.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

From a discussion I saw elsewhere, the very simple answer to this would be that the previous year they released a new expansion, and this year they did not.

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They've been using that excuse for a long time and it's worn off. Now we are just looking at declines because the patch content is not retaining players.

It's not like "Oh yeah we just realized this fiscal quarter we had Endwalker"...they aknowledged the effect of Endwalker many quarters ago.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

From a discussion I saw elsewhere, the very simple answer to this would be that the previous year they released a new expansion, and this year they did not.

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the previous year would be Q2 2022, which is 6.1. Endwalker was Q4 2021. MMO segment down would also be relating to Q1 2023 -> Q2 2023, so they aren't comparing early EW numbers to now lmao.

I'm unsatisfied that this shows the game is in decline.

I'm biased because there's A LOT I dislike about Endwalker and it's gutted content and that being the case I can look at numbers going down and say yeah see, objectively it's in decline.

But moving beyond my biases, has FF14 lost social impact within live service games and MMOs? Have a massive amount of players lost interest in playing Dawntrail? Has the game faded out of the gaming community consciousness? Like to me, the answer is no. Cuz people who hate, are ambivalent or are okay with Endwalker are all waiting expectantly to see what Dawntrail will do.

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Originally Posted by Volgia

I'm unsatisfied that this shows the game is in decline.

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It doesn't. The original image is saying that specifically achievement hunters (people who enable achievements, which are the hardcore players) are quitting. There is no guarantee that the quitting is permanent. Either way, according to Lucky Bancho, they just get replaced by new and returning players because the overall active player estimate has remained stable throughout the entirety of Endwalker.

The revenue falling in Q2 doesn't mean anything other than that there are patch lulls due to how a lot of content can be done fairly quickly and how the population can reduce the further it gets from an expansion release. It could back up some sort of decline if it were happening over a long period of time, but a single Quarter means nothing really.

Players could be feeling that with the Hydaelyn and Zodiark arc closing and most if not all plot threads from it being wound up that they are comfortable leaving the game for a while, if not years. Dawntrail promises to be a wholly new story and if people are feeling fatigued after their years long subscription then they could see this as an opportune time to set it aside and maybe come back later if they want or maybe not at all since the story they had been invested in is now supposed to be over.

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Originally Posted by Volgia

I'm unsatisfied that this shows the game is in decline.

I'm biased because there's A LOT I dislike about Endwalker and it's gutted content and that being the case I can look at numbers going down and say yeah see, objectively it's in decline.

But moving beyond my biases, has FF14 lost social impact within live service games and MMOs? Have a massive amount of players lost interest in playing Dawntrail? Has the game faded out of the gaming community consciousness? Like to me, the answer is no. Cuz people who hate, are ambivalent or are okay with Endwalker are all waiting expectantly to see what Dawntrail will do.

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For a long time Destiny 2 was touted as one of the OG successful live service games and it seemed like nothing would take it down. Then the Lightfall expansion happened, revenue dipped 45% and Bungie laid off 100+ people including their logo designer and composer. A lot can change over one or two years. Even if DawnTrail inevitably sees a pop, I would say there's growing negative sentiment brewing already and once people get through MSQ it's just a question of whether those players end up back in a state of discontent. That is what has killed D2-- the assumption that the whales would just always be around to offset the critics. Well it turns out they aren't.

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Originally Posted by TomsYoungerBro

the previous year would be Q2 2022, which is 6.1. Endwalker was Q4 2021. MMO segment down would also be relating to Q1 2023 -> Q2 2023, so they aren't comparing early EW numbers to now lmao.

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Yeah, in other words comparing Q1 when a new patch released (6.4 in May) to Q2 when no new patch released. Gee, what a surprise that the numbers went up when a new patch came out and went down at the tail end of that patch (in other words, the cyclical nature that applies to virtually every MMO ever). It's amusing when people "lmao" while being oblivious to how they sound.

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Originally Posted by SieyaM

Players could be feeling that with the Hydaelyn and Zodiark arc closing and most if not all plot threads from it being wound up that they are comfortable leaving the game for a while, if not years.

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Many did say that at Endwalker release and Yoshi-P was aware of this issue. It is actually why he delayed the release of Endwalker so that he could add in the speech at the end about the future of the game and how much there was still for us to explore, such as the ruins beneath the waters of the bounty (Alazadal's Legacy), the fabled golden cities of the New World (Dawntrail), the sacred sites of the forgotten people of the South Sea Isles (Aloalo Island) and the true identities of the Twelve (Myths of the Realm).

We just have Othard's north and Meracydia remaining on that checklist.

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Originally Posted by Turtledeluxe

For a long time Destiny 2 was touted as one of the OG successful live service games and it seemed like nothing would take it down.

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Intial release was in 2017. It wasn't even around for as long as this game has been, which released in 2010 and re-released in 2013. That means this game has had longer to develop a wide variety of content and longer to establish roots in people that make them either not want to leave, or to want to return. It's the same reason that WoW endures hard times where most other MMORPGs do not; it has a backlog of content and a backlog of roots in people that make it hard for them to leave or make them want to return.

Fighting that backlog of content is a big challenge for a new MMORPG and what this game did was to accelerate the amount of dungeons released to 3 and then once we started getting close to 100, it was slowly reduced to 2, then 1 or 2 and then to 1.

The previous exposure to the game is also significant. When they say 20 million adventurers, they are not all subscribed right now, but they are a pool and should any current subscribers quit, they will very likely just be replaced by some of the pool of 20 million former players who return to the game.

This "returner" factor is often not considered by people in this debate but the reality is all those people quitting in protest are being replaced by the pool of 20 million returners from ARR, Heavensward, Stormblood, Shadowbringers or early Endwalker. That is why "how long the game has been around and popular for" is a big factor that gives both FFXIV and WoW an endurance that many MMORPGs will never have.

I've even heard it's the reason Runescape still exists; it's held up by returners who used to play any time between now and 2 decades ago. You would think there is no way that could still be around but it is.

Another factor in this is the IP. It's a Final Fantasy game. Not all MMORPGs have an IP like that bringing in people from 36 years' worth of games.

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Even if DawnTrail inevitably sees a pop, I would say there's growing negative sentiment brewing already and once people get through MSQ it's just a question of whether those players end up back in a state of discontent.

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Yes and I mean, there could be a decline eventually but overall that is something that will take time both due to the pool of returning players, the rate of new players still joining the game (evident from all the sprouts we see everywhere including in the novice network and regular playthroughs appearing on youtube and twitch) and the fact it takes time for someone with years of achievements in the game to actually detach (for evidence of that we can look at WoW).

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Originally Posted by TomsYoungerBro

the previous year would be Q2 2022, which is 6.1. Endwalker was Q4 2021. MMO segment down would also be relating to Q1 2023 -> Q2 2023, so they aren't comparing early EW numbers to now lmao.

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Too bad that Square Enix is now in FY2024, not FY2023. FY2023 ended in March of this year. Year-over-year the numbers are down about 18% for the first half of FY2024. Not surprising, since they've put off the next expansion by about six months.

Endwalker was released in FY2022, calendar year was 2021, but financial reports don't work that way.

The game's content is formulaic. We know when/what is coming out (generally speaking). Sure, maybe raids have new mechanics and occasionally there's an original idea (as far as the game is concerned). But for the most part, SE follows a formula. Some don't like it. Some take comfort in it.

Personally, I sub/unsub as I see fit. FFXIV isn't the only game out there, nor is it the only MMO out there. A long time ago, I got over the notion that "I invested X days of my life to an MMO, therefore I should expect every bit of content to greatly impress me." When there's nothing to do that I want to do... I unsub. Then I come back if it seems like there is something I want to do.