This game has seriously messed up RNG

I have seen much much much worse RNG in other games.

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Originally Posted by Yukiko

I wonder who are actually programming RNGs?
So much said in this topic that is just not true...

Edit: In a Dev post SE already said which algorithm they are using for FFXIV, those who are familiar with RNG programming know about its weakness.

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Mersenne Twister. Its a very high quality algorithm for simulating true randomness (high quality as in it doesn't repeat often iirc 10^23 iterations or something), low predictability and excellent spread of outcomes. The main issue is not the algorithm, its that its unshielded in its implementation i.e. it didn't have its outliers clipped so its possible to have scenarios the OP experienced

I must confess, I dropped seriously crafting when HW came in. This was due to the RNG endured when crafting the final lot of off-hands. (RS/HT/reclaim fails far over their %, 2/3 of the time). I literally ended up with 3 of each, along with the ones that went down the drain completely. To add to it, the mats were very expensive, involved a lot of grinding, and ended up RNGed into the toilet. The RNG situation hasn't changed from the crafting I do, make some blue/red script hand-ins, and even then I see the same thing. Even with much higher stats than required for the craft, I see strings of HT/RS failure that are quite predicatable - if I am crafting 10 of something, I'll see it 2-3 times. If I'm making 20, I'll see it 4-5 times. Those that say "but you get string of successes" are simply wrong - I can go a week without seeing that.

The problem is RNG is involved in every move - the more moves you make, and the high-level requires a lot of them, you're rolling the dice 30-odd times, each one compounds the chance of failure. That does not mean the RNG itself is somehow "wrong" - what it means is that it's being employed very poorly. All the expense/grinding pain of getting geared up to find landing a craft requires 30 dice rolls? Not my idea of fun, I'm afraid.

and speaking of RNG - has anyone tried getting the shaft from alex normal? Painful doesn't cover it. It's torture.

or how its mostly the lowest preforming player in the party always gets the loot

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Originally Posted by Atoli

Yeah, but the odds of getting 201 times heads and zero times tails are extremely low, because if the chance is actually 50:50, over a very large sample size, you will end up getting a fairly balanced result.
As for ADVSS's example: The chances to win the jackpot in my country are 0,00000071% and it still happens every few months. As long as the chance is not zero, it can absolutely happen, even if it is very very unlikely to occur.

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My point exactly - even if you have a 99% chance for a win; you can still lose many times in a row. Do 50000 touches with a 99% chance of success, you'll have roughly 500 failures. But RNG isn't based on odds vs prior results, it's as true a random as can be with computers.

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Originally Posted by YISUG

or how its mostly the lowest preforming player in the party always gets the loot

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Ive seen this phenomena many times

to the rest i still believe that there should be some control especially with crafting or gathering. Even if you say its "too easy" what is the point of even gaining levels for crafters and gatherers if all, besides the given tricks to kind of help boost your stats on even more rng. I still believe giving a little push or incentive to crafting wouldnt hurt but would make it a bit more competitve in the long run. Totally senseless to be maxed out and still botch things youve made dozens of times(albeit with luck on your side) just seems a little off at least to me.

Another bothersome thing about the whole special rng is when you quick synth simple items youd never fail with a basic synthesis and even 40 durability +

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Originally Posted by XiXiQ

I must confess, I dropped seriously crafting when HW came in. This was due to the RNG endured when crafting the final lot of off-hands. (RS/HT/reclaim fails far over their %, 2/3 of the time).

The problem is RNG is involved in every move - the more moves you make, and the high-level requires a lot of them, you're rolling the dice 30-odd times, each one compounds the chance of failure.

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I'm a bit surprised at this since HW is far less demanding in terms of RNG manipulation than ARR. In ARR, to craft 3* and 4* effectively, you still had to build up 11 stacks of IQ regularly and that was without the aid of new abilities like precise touch and maker's mark. HW is easier since you have far more tools to reduce RNG and everything is predictable due to low proc rates but much higher base CP.

For crafts (HW or ARR), you can expect to routinely see 1-5 misses in a craft. To master crafting, you have to be able to handle 4-5 misses as those are regular occurrences even if they're less common than 2-3 misses. I normally craft from 0/13187 for a 4* craft so 4-5 misses will make a craft go sour. But in most cases, I can rebound to 11 stacks of IQ leaving me with 78-90% usually depending on the situation. Start with 2000/13187 and I'd be able to completely absorb those misses and get that 100%.

There's a learning curve to RNG crafting/manipulation and it really isn't so much different from learning how to use a battle class and how to handle specific fight mechanics. I feel that the underlying RNG mechanics are actually quite fascinating once you've learned them and it's a shame that most players that I know don't really seem to care.

There are strategies over how to handle the maker's mark phase, strategies on what's the best thing to do when a good proc appears (there really is no blanket rule whether to use tricks, precise touch, hasty; everything is situational). Mid-craft, you can even work out what possible approaches there are and do a rough calculation to see which one can maximize your odds of success.

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Originally Posted by YISUG

or how its mostly the lowest preforming player in the party always gets the loot

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This kind of thing is just a bias. You tend to notice floor tanks getting the mount more than when average or good players get the mount. You think the latter is "normal" and you dismiss them.

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Originally Posted by YISUG

or how its mostly the lowest preforming player in the party always gets the loot

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i've seen this and from my personal experience since i moved from NA to JP server, I can't win a loot roll to save my life. constant roll losses when rolling 95+. If i don't roll a 99, i can just forget about it.

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Originally Posted by MN_14

I'm a bit surprised at this since HW is far less demanding in terms of RNG manipulation than ARR.

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I'd say they were even - while a few extra tools were thrown in, you get to use MM instead of a single RS, precise touch is nice but even it occurring inside the quality phase is - yep.... RNG. however, with more steps required, it's evened out again. I'm not ignorant of the fact that sometimes you can work around it, but the fails I'm seeing, you aren't working around - like failing HT 7 times out of 10, RS 3-4 times in a row, those are simply far more common they they should be. I see them EVERY time I craft 10-20 items, and typically more than once. I've not specialised - mainly because I lost interest because of the RNG, and later because the idea of "buying" an action put me off, so can't comment on that one.

I'll agree it's similar to battle classes - as things pile on there's just more buttons, longer rotations, more buff juggling, which means most of the rotation just ends up in the crapper due to unavoidable mechanics going on on the other side -then crit is RNG anyway.... sigh

Crafting has a similar issue - as the rotations get longer and longer, the RNG just compounds more and more, leading to a similar problem - it doesn't matter if you know what you're doing or know how it works, you're just constantly frustrated by it anyway.

I'm fence-sitting for SB as it stands, I'm beginning to find the game simply frustrating rather than amusing or fun. Less reliance on RNG and a general clear-out or condensation of skills is sorely needed. If this ARR-HW trend is repeated, the game will be unplayable to anyone beyond masochists.