RNG doesn't hate you

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Originally Posted by zeopower6

You don't need to complete the FATE for the chance of getting an atma (or Alexandrite, I think) if I recall correctly. It can even fail, I believe.

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I can't speak for Alexandrite but I'm pretty sure you need at least silver rating on FATEs for atma. You are right about not having to complete it.
I have gotten atma from failed fates. I have gotten atma from level 3 fates. I have gotten atma from fates on the other side of the zone.

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Originally Posted by Nutz

Man, lots of people in this thread don't seem to understand RNG very well. The OP is pretty spot on with most of this, except, as Krr said, there are hundreds of thousands (if not more than a million) people playing, which allows for a lot of extreme outliers. It's just bad business to use a method like this. Sure it will have the desired effect for the majority of the population, but the system allows for people to get atmas first try in every zone (probably has never happend and said player certainly wouldn't complain) or for it to take an indefinite number of attempts (literally never going to finish). Given the size of the population, if something has a 1/1,000,000 (.0001%) chance of happening, it will likely happen to someone. If it's only a 0.01% chance of happening it's going to happen to 100 of the million people.

Even though it's statistically insignificant, it's going to make for a very bad experience for some of your players. As such, there should be caps where possible (ie. atmas can from FATES at X% chance and will definitely drop on the 50th FATE, reset counter at acquisition).

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I think I remember hearing someone mention that they only tried once per area. All I know is that they got their Atma super fast and I was like: how many fates did you run? And they were like, 'It wasn't bad, it was one fate per area."

Now, whether they are including fates they did outside of hunting for Atmas or if they were including all fates that they did while counting, I don't know.

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I seriously wonder if people realize the thing about statistics and probabilities. Just because it isn't likely doesn't mean that it can't happen and doesn't mean that it won't happen.

As I said earlier, what is the chances of Earth forming and reaching the EXACT result it currently has including all the events leading up to it? And yet, Earth DID form and all the events on the Earth HAVE happened.

I mean, consider in the rarity of all the material in the earth, in the moon, and how expansive the known universe is. The chances of all those materials forming into earth in the location earth is at and so on. If you think about it, the chances are statistically impossible to have those EXACT things happen.

Also, the chances of me rolling a 1 on a 20 sided dice each time would be the same as me rolling a 1->20 in order or all 20s, or any other specific combination.

Just as an FYI.

It's already been said.

What I'd say, to all those having issues with this system: "Stop fighting it, it's ok to use any of the other perfectly fine i110 weapons(and you'd better believe there'll always be viable accessible alternatives to the relic quest). We all play this game to have fun, so don't let one small aspect of the game dictate whether you're having fun or not."

It's unlikely this system will change, until such a time when these legs of the quest are just so behind the curve that they abolish or ease up how rare the drops are, but until that point in time(nowhere in the near future) it will be as it is now. Many people asked for relic quest to be a grind based RNG dictated experience, enough that it came into being.

For the rest of us, we've got options. Utilize them for your own sake.

ITT: two or three people that have even a rudimentary understanding of probability

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Originally Posted by Krr

i can't believe people in the "Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn" general forums are shittalking anime

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I'm not shittalking anime, the person I'm quoting seems to be confusing real life with anime

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Originally Posted by KarmaCha

ITT: two or three people that have even a rudimentary understanding of probability

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Honestly, probability is one of those things that I always see people having misconceptions about, whether in video games or outside of them. Wrapping your head around the possibility that something can exist without rhyme, pattern, or intention, is actually incredibly hard for people.

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I'm getting over it, my boyfriend convinced me to give up, and that it was ruining our fun ingame once I realized how much time I had wasted a couple of days ago, we both got really frustrated and angry. We've settled on getting the other 110 weapons now.

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Bruised ego aside, I'm glad you've made the decision to back out.

For the record: Don't try progressing Fishing 'past 50' either, I would recommend. While the rates are theoretically a lot higher, the entire thing is an adventure in RNG.

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Originally Posted by alimdia

I'm not shittalking anime, the person I'm quoting seems to be confusing real life with anime

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No, I was saying that anime has similarities to my life, not the other way around. It is more like, something happens in my life, a few months/years down the road, I see an anime and go: Oh hey, this character reminds me of myself (either right now or at one point). Or oh hey, this situation reminds me of my own at one point.

Is it wrong to go: Oh hey, this character in this anime can do the same thing I can?

Or: Oh hey, this character in this anime can do something pretty amazing. Why don't I take what they can do and make it my own ability? Such as Largo? from Megatokyo's ability to make full use of their body like some disabled artists can. I simply took the idea and actually trained myself to be able to do it. It is like if I see someone being able to lift a 400 pound weight and go: Hey, I want to be able to do that! And then go train to lift a 400 pound weight (I wouldn't train to do that, but that isn't my point, my point is why is it that I cannot see something I want to do and train myself to do it).

Then later after training myself to do various things based on stuff I've seen, I later see an anime and go: Oh hey, this person can do the same thing.

Or perhaps I see in an anime where the person knew when their family would die (for whatever reason) but decided not to tell their family members and then I go, oh hey, this happened in my life.

Because you know what? A lot of anime is based at least partially on real life. They tend to be exaggerated or take some of the most extreme cases, but does that mean that stuff that happens in anime can't happen? Or that people in anime can't do what they do in the real world?

So that character who likes to read books and reads all day couldn't possibly exist in real life? Sorry, but that is what I used to do. I spent most of my time in the library. It was safe there, I wouldn't have people trying to kill me. I wouldn't have to worry about being hit by a car. I wouldn't have to worry about being beaten up or worse. I could stay there safely and enjoy what I liked because I could read books right in front of the library staff.

So when I see a character who reads all day, I tend to go: Oh hey, this character is just like me. And sometimes: Oh hey, this character is in the same situation I was in.

Take a character that gets beaten up constantly, abused, tortured, etc. Not so fun fact? It has happened before in real life.

Fun fact: One of my characters ended up getting made into an anime character. I was surprised. Then I got harassed because people thought that the anime version was the original. Even when I showed proof that my character was made first, they kept harassing me. I love 07th expansion one way or another though.

My point? Anime is anime. Real life is real life. Even if they aren't similar at all, don't mix them up. Even if they are so similar that you could swear that one was based on the other, don't mix them up. Just because someone else's life reminds you of an anime (to be fair, I did mention that my life resembles certain animes to various extents), don't mix up their life and anime.

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Originally Posted by Garlyle

Bruised ego aside, I'm glad you've made the decision to back out.

For the record: Don't try progressing Fishing 'past 50' either, I would recommend. While the rates are theoretically a lot higher, the entire thing is an adventure in RNG.

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Sorry I'm not even sure what you are talking about. I'm planning on leveling all of my gathering classes next however, but I think 50 is a good place to stop for fishing. I have 4 characters with max fishing on WoW before I came to this game, so I'm pretty much ready for any grind you can imagine to get all my classes up. As long as I'm not dealing with RNG to get to the 50 mark, I think I'm good.

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Originally Posted by reality_check

Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.

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Probability is not statistics, and that's exactly where you're making the mistake here. What is likely to occur via probability does not necessitate what happens statistically. You're saying in your OP that people are likely exaggerating or otherwise not being truthful because their cases are unlikely to exist, but their cases already have either happened or have not happened - probability no longer has any relevance to the truth of their claims.

There's also the matter of the same probability predicting approximately three people out of every 200,000 to not get atma 1000 times in a row. If this probability does hold statistically, then how many of those people do you think might come to the forums to complain about it? This point is completely separate from what I was saying though, and is better explained by Kyros and others already.

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Originally Posted by swordrain

Sorry I'm not even sure what you are talking about. I'm planning on leveling all of my gathering classes next however, but I think 50 is a good place to stop for fishing. As long as I'm not dealing with RNG to get to the 50 mark, I think I'm good.

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Getting to 50 is easy, and honestly kind of fun. RNG has very little to do with it - it can speed it up, but even the cases where you need to catch HQ fish or perform mooches (catch an HQ fish then use it as bait for a single cast right after) for class quests aren't that bad. If you get your HQ class gear when you hit 50, even the level 50 quest shouldn't take you more than an hour or two with bad luck to get the double mooch (I landed it in like five minutes). If you're really getting shafted for class quests, you can even just buy the fish in question from other players.

Once you get past 50, however, and have started melding, you need to pick up your gear upgrades past a certain point to continue 'progressing' the job. The Forager's Rod (the easier one) relies on collecting 20 HQ Silver Sovereigns. While I run into about 2-3 Sovereigns every half hour of fishing, whether they're HQ or not is entirely RNG, and while Perception helps, you can only really get so much of it. And these fish aren't tradeable - you have to fish them up yourself.

I find it enjoyable because I find fishing in general really enjoyable, but it's also very frustrating for a lot of people, and it's just ultimately RNG.