Nier raid 2b outfit rant.

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Originally Posted by Lilseph

I kinda calculated a 4.3% to 4.4% from getting the chest if 24 people roll for it and if two people got it already respectively. So you have 3 chances of roughly 4-ish% of getting it. If the chest were split on each alliance, it would be a 12%. Here is when I'm confused... 3 attempts of 4% or 1 attempt of 12%? What's better?

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Its 12.5% a run with 3 chances to try. The boxes are unique marked so if you get one you cannot get another while its in the inventory.

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Originally Posted by Wynaut96

Honestly they should have just made this a quest reward instead of raid. I get the argument of it gets people doing the raid more than once but as it stands people are gonna be doing it weekly for their gear and coin anyway. On top of that allowing people who have already won it roll again if they so please it just a kick in the dick to the people are trying to win it for the first time. I've done this raid 14 times already and every single time RNG gives me the middle finger salute and that's that.

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Would've been a better idea for sure and hopefully it's something they do going forward. Chest could've came in that little chain you do after the raid or something, similar to how you get alpha through the quest after the omega raid. Just give the raid a neir minion or something.

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Originally Posted by KitingGenbu

As for continuously obtaining the chest, I would say that would be a more realistic and sooner seen issue to solve vs overhauling the system. All they have to do is do it like how you can't loot mount items once its already in your character's system. Probably a bit more elaborate to code since mounts just go to a tab and the clothes can be literally anywhere on your character's accessible inventories (retainer/dresser/etc). I suppose if they had that much sorted out, you'd only ever be able to have one map across all inventories.

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They’d have to do some type of recoding. Even now, you can obtain numerous copies of Unique gear pieces so long as they’re all stored in separate inventories (e.g., Saddlebag, Armory chest, Retainer inventories, Glamour Dresser). I’ve ended up with copies of some of the dungeon gear because I’ve forgotten I had them shoved away in a retainer for later leveling and just never fished them back out.

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Originally Posted by Raiya

Its 12.5% a run with 3 chances to try. The boxes are unique marked so if you get one you cannot get another while its in the inventory.

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Your chances will go down with fewer coffers, so it’s not always 12.5%—I think that’s likely applicable only to the initial lotting where you have all 24 players rolling on all 3 coffers (3 rolls, 24 players: 3/24 = 1/8 = 12.5% chance of winning 1 of the 3 available coffers before any are awarded). The second roll, after 1 person has already won, is an odds of 2 rolls per player, with 23 players rolling (again, assuming all are rolling). So, 2/23 = 8.69% chance to win 1 of the 2 coffers now available. The final coffer will be 1 lot among the remaining 22 players: 1/22 = 4.54% chance for your roll to win that 1 coffer.
This is the math I’ve done. It’s been a while since I’ve taken any sort of probability, so this could be incorrect in terms of its figuring. But I think it’s relatively correct. If it’s wrong, someone can feel free to provide me with counter math.

Having 1 available roll against 21 other players is lower odds than 3 available rolls against 23 others assuming everyone is still rolling; which, right now, is likely to be a majority of parties since the content is still new.

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Originally Posted by Wynaut96

Honestly they should have just made this a quest reward instead of raid. I get the argument of it gets people doing the raid more than once but as it stands people are gonna be doing it weekly for their gear and coin anyway. On top of that allowing people who have already won it roll again if they so please it just a kick in the dick to the people are trying to win it for the first time. I've done this raid 14 times already and every single time RNG gives me the middle finger salute and that's that.

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I love this. You and me are in the same boat, I ended up doing it all night, because I had nothing better to do, and it is fairly mindless, but I have done it about 14 times total and also lost every single time. Reminds me of a few months ago clearing innocence EX 130+ times and never winning the mount. Actually, I only ever saw that mount drop like once or twice in all those runs, it was ridiculous. This time they drop every time, but the chances even when you roll high are low. You gotta get really lucky. Especially when you can effectively say you will always be fighting the full raid for the coffers.

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Originally Posted by HyoMinPark

Your chances will go down with fewer coffers, so it’s not always 12.5%—I think that’s likely applicable only to the initial lotting where you have all 24 players rolling on all 3 coffers (3 rolls, 24 players: 3/24 = 1/8 = 12.5% chance of winning 1 of the 3 available coffers before any are awarded). The second roll, after 1 person has already won, is an odds of 2 rolls per player, with 23 players rolling (again, assuming all are rolling). So, 2/23 = 8.69% chance to win 1 of the 2 coffers now available. The final coffer will be 1 lot among the remaining 22 players: 1/22 = 4.54% chance for your roll to win that 1 coffer.
This is the math I’ve done. It’s been a while since I’ve taken any sort of probability, so this could be incorrect in terms of its figuring. But I think it’s relatively correct. If it’s wrong, someone can feel free to provide me with counter math.

Having 1 available roll against 21 other players is lower odds than 3 available rolls against 23 others assuming everyone is still rolling; which, right now, is likely to be a majority of parties since the content is still new.

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I decided to try my hand at the math. Usually you approach a problem like this by finding out the probability of failure and then subtracting that from 1 to get the probability of success. Probability of failure in this case is losing all rolls:

((P-1)/P)*((P-2)/P-1))*((P-3)/P-2))*...

P is the number of party members. There is a lot of cancellation which leads to:

(P-R/P)

With R being the number of roll chances. In the case of Alliance Raids, P = 24 and R = 3. Our chance of failure is 21/24 = 87.5%. So our chance of success is 1 - failure, which is 12.5%.

If you want it so badly, then run it until you get it. When I heard it was loot from the raid, I figured there would only be one to roll on. 3 is pretty generous and i don't mind multiple runs because I enjoy the game.

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Originally Posted by Raiya

Likely if they're giving out a costume a run we get 9S for the next one and A2 on the final.

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Keeping my fingers crossed since I really like what 9S is wearing.

An A2 costume would be...interesting considering she actually has barely any 'clothing.' Most of that black isn't her clothes, its where her fake skin has worn off over time. Though I guess they could just pattern black cloth in the same areas.

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Originally Posted by Raiya

Its 12.5% a run with 3 chances to try. The boxes are unique marked so if you get one you cannot get another while its in the inventory.

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Thanks! I read some maths below to back this up. I am terrible at this. :(

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Originally Posted by Bright-Flower

An A2 costume would be...interesting considering she actually has barely any 'clothing.' Most of that black isn't her clothes, its where her fake skin has worn off over time. Though I guess they could just pattern black cloth in the same areas.

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I truly want her hairstyle.

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Originally Posted by JohnnyDevo

I'm not personally seeing the issue, here. At least with the coffers.

I saw someone mention "make it 1 per party", but what difference does that make?

With 3 coffers in 24 people, the math gets more complicated (and I'm not talking 3 divided by 24), but ultimately remains the same. Long story short, if everyone rolls on everything, the odds of you getting at least one coffer is roughly 12%. Literally. That's just a miniscule fraction short of 1 in 8.

So my question becomes... why the complaints on that front? The coffer is something you can run the raid as many times as you want, and you're guaranteed what amounts to a 1 in 8 chance every single time you run it. For a coffer containing nothing less than the full outfit. What other content offers that kind of forgiving loot system?

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If it's per group that 1 of 8 then becomes easier with a premade, 50 runs turn into 8.

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Originally Posted by HyoMinPark

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Yeah what Wynaut suggested is a lot better of an idea and faster to implement since all it would require is removing the chests and just slapping them into the quest. Database can show who all completed the quest and just mail it out accordingly. Even though they won't do that this time around, its definitely a better idea for the next 2. People are going to be running these raids the entire expansion so it really shouldn't be a traffic problem in Yoshida thought implementing it this way would curve the numbers.

The point of the glamour being a drop and not a quest reward is so that people have a reason to attempt the final boss. It has always been a problem in 24 mans that people get their weekly item from the first or second boss and then leave the duty. It's not just to make the content active, but to keep people in it until the end.

Yoko Taro ruining FFXIV as promised :(

I don't even get why they locked the gear from it to one piece a week when can get crafted ilvl 460 gear which is same as it. 2b outfit should been end reward for completing it like hair was to stormblood alliance raid. What gets me see ones that have full type 2b outfit still rolling on 2b coffers this shouldn't be allowed. Hope they decide to add outfit to gold saucer for ones to buy like hair style was from last alliance raid. Guessing this is why right here you see so many 2b mods for the game because SE loves to lock it glamour behind rng. It should been two 2b coffers for each team and one alliance loot crate with gear in it.

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Originally Posted by hynaku

Doesn't make you want run it when you have ran it 4 times and got nothing from it. I don't even get why they locked the gear from it to one piece a week when can get crafted ilvl 460 gear which is same as it. 2b outfit should been end reward for completing it like hair was to stormblood alliance raid. Unless they fix this not sure if I will ever run it anymore.

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Have you not done an alliance raid since before 4.1? That's how it's been for the last 2 years...

Before that, it just matched unupgraded tome gear since 2.3. You get items to upgrade tome gear. Plus the alliance raids are fun.

They did a good job improving the normal mode 8 man raid loot this expansion, I was hoping they'd also improve alliance raids.

If you only get one piece per week, it should not be limited to two pieces of gear per boss. We're already gated to taking what, five weeks to get a full set? First you need rng for your piece to drop, and then you need to win the roll for it. (Which granted can vary from tanks getting first dibs on all tank loot to a dancer rolling against two other dancers and a bard for that aiming top that just dropped...)

In normal dungeons this isn't that big of a deal because they're quick and easy, but alliance raids take much longer than dungeons and are more prone to wiping a few times to further increase the run time. So much loot goes to waste as is because you can only get one piece per week, why not bump it up to 4 or even 6 drops per boss since you need to think about what you do and don't want to roll on anyway because of weekly lock?

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Originally Posted by Wynaut96

Honestly they should have just made this a quest reward instead of raid. I get the argument of it gets people doing the raid more than once but as it stands people are gonna be doing it weekly for their gear and coin anyway. On top of that allowing people who have already won it roll again if they so please it just a kick in the dick to the people are trying to win it for the first time. I've done this raid 14 times already and every single time RNG gives me the middle finger salute and that's that.

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Today lost both rolls one at 89 and other at 98. They need to fix it where if ones have already got the outfit they can't roll on it again and same should go with raid gear.

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Originally Posted by Bright-Flower

They did a good job improving the normal mode 8 man raid loot this expansion, I was hoping they'd also improve alliance raids.

If you only get one piece per week, it should not be limited to two pieces of gear per boss. We're already gated to taking what, five weeks to get a full set? First you need rng for your piece to drop, and then you need to win the roll for it. (Which granted can vary from tanks getting first dibs on all tank loot to a dancer rolling against two other dancers and a bard for that aiming top that just dropped...)

In normal dungeons this isn't that big of a deal because they're quick and easy, but alliance raids take much longer than dungeons and are more prone to wiping a few times to further increase the run time. So much loot goes to waste as is because you can only get one piece per week, why not bump it up to 4 or even 6 drops per boss since you need to think about what you do and don't want to roll on anyway because of weekly lock?

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Last boss does drop 4 pieces of gear.

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Originally Posted by Valkyrie_Lenneth

Have you not done an alliance raid since before 4.1? That's how it's been for the last 2 years...

Before that, it just matched unupgraded tome gear since 2.3. You get items to upgrade tome gear. Plus the alliance raids are fun.

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No there not fun alliance raids. What was fun is eureka and Alliance raids sure aren't fun if have bad hands and get nothing for running it.

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Originally Posted by hynaku

No there not fun alliance raids. What was fun is eureka and Alliance raids sure aren't fun if have bad hands.

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That's personal preference as Eureka was probably the worst content in the game for me. Different strokes for different folks. Also unless someone outright said they already had the gear you have no way of knowing they already won it. Just gotta keep trying and you'll get it eventually.

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Originally Posted by hynaku

Today lost both rolls one at 89 and other at 98. They need to fix it where if ones have already got the outfit they can't roll on it again and same should go with raid gear.

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Unless you roll a 99 there is absolutely no guarantee that you will win anything, as frustrating as it may be. Just gotta keep trying. But yeah, I do agree that if someone has already won a set, then they should not be able to roll on another.

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Originally Posted by hynaku

No there not fun alliance raids. What was fun is eureka and Alliance raids sure aren't fun if have bad hands.

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"Eureka" and "fun" don't really belong in the same sentence in my opinion, but whatever floats your boat I guess.

yeah its trash but sqaure is always trash when it comes to things like this now days

^^^ Exactly. Would have saved all the hassle and tedious grinding.

said it before but gonna say it again. making something (an iconic outfit mind you) locked behind luck/gambling is not a good idea. if they wanted people to keep returning to the raid then make it available to buy with the Manufactured coins, just like the Rathalos gear.

By making it RNG. people are just gonna look back on how much they hated grinding the raid. it's one of the reasons people hate Blue Mage.

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Originally Posted by stanrir

yeah its trash but sqaure is always trash when it comes to things like this now days

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...I'm confused to what you're refering - the graphic-problem, which they accepted as a bug and are therefor most likely going to fix, or that something of desire is actually locked behind some grind, something that I kinda always assumed every MMO and a lot of regular games have done for the past few decades instead of it being something thats only happening "now days". (Actually, "now days" would have probably been to put that coffer into the cash shop - but instead of containing the whole outfit you have a random chance to get one piece of it...)

I am, again, baffled by seeing how many people complain about "having" to play this game in the official forum of said game...

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Originally Posted by Vidu

(Actually, "now days" would have probably been to put that coffer into the cash shop - but instead of containing the whole outfit you have a random chance to get one piece of it...).

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atleast if it was in the cash shop I would be able to get it XD

If you think this is bad, wait till they release the 2B hairstyle....not only will it be RNG, but it’ll cost like 25,000,000 gil on the marketboard, lol.

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Originally Posted by CookiesNCreams

If you think this is bad, wait till they release the 2B hairstyle....not only will it be RNG, but it’ll cost like 25,000,000 gil on the marketboard, lol.

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if it's even tradeable..

I've done about 14 runs of this and still no luck for my alt. Sure theres 3 coffers but it's still essentially 1vs23 for each. It would have been nice if each chest was per alliance. 1v8 would have been infinitely less painful.

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Originally Posted by Vanitas

I've done about 14 runs of this and still no luck for my alt. Sure theres 3 coffers but it's still essentially 1vs23 for each. It would have been nice if each chest was per alliance. 1v8 would have been infinitely less painful.

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There's 3 chests and they're unique drops which means once someone gets them, they can't get another one. It essentially makes it 1 vs 8 (unless they're super horny to troll people and they roll, win and toss and then roll and win again. But the chances of that even happening are small).

The reason it's way, way better for it to be 3 chests across 3 alliances rather than 1 chest for each is that it increases your chances dramatically if the other groups are filled with people who already have the drop. As an extreme example, say your group has 8 people who don't have it and the other alliances have nobody that need it. Now the single group has a 3/8 chance of getting it for the players that want it rather than the coffers simply going to waste.

As we go on in months you should eventually get it as other people get it.

Also I was under the impression that the 2B costume coffer is a unique item thus you can't hold multiple of it. Am I wrong? I know the outfit pieces themselves are unique.

So many complainers, the raid has only been out for a couple of days, just keep trying and you will get a good lot eventually. At least it drops three rather than one like the minions.

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Originally Posted by stanrir

atleast if it was in the cash shop I would be able to get it XD

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Please don't bring up the cash shop, already way too much stuff on there as it is and I would rather do a raid several times for it than pay $18 or more (likely more cause it's very wanted) for the dress.

I would rather paid 1 million mgp for it from gold saucer than keep running it just to loose rolls to ones that already have the glamour. Last group was in one is in full 2b outfit and won another 2b coffer so waiting isn't going to help when ones that already got one can keep rolling for more they need to fix this problem. When I get item once anytime every see it again I just past unless its item for crafting most time take more than one of them to craft the item.

Only complaints because it's something they want ,didn't care one bit about people who did these for minions,orch scrolls or Crafting mats and theres only one of those

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Originally Posted by XenoSamurai

So many complainers, the raid has only been out for a couple of days, just keep trying and you will get a good lot eventually. At least it drops three rather than one like the minions.



Please don't bring up the cash shop, already way too much stuff on there as it is and I would rather do a raid several times for it than pay $18 or more (likely more cause it's very wanted) for the dress.

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The cash shops not even that bad like compare it to a f2p mmo or heck eso's which is b2p. That and it seems like a lot because they ofc add to it slowly only years but compare the hundreds of thousands of stuff that you can get for free ingame? And you'll see the shops really really small item wise. Now if there's something you really really wanted on mog ofc it'll seem like a bigger issue.

Just play the raid again.

Why can't people just be happy the dress is in the game and that it is in permanent content and not a limited event? It's not going anywhere.

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Originally Posted by NealSnow

The cash shops not even that bad like compare it to a f2p mmo or heck eso's which is b2p. That and it seems like a lot because they ofc add to it slowly only years but compare the hundreds of thousands of stuff that you can get for free ingame? And you'll see the shops really really small item wise. Now if there's something you really really wanted on mog ofc it'll seem like a bigger issue.

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Because other f2p and b2p games have worse cash shops means it's ok for FF14 a p2p game to have a not as bad but still fairly expensive cash shop?

Just checked it out. Yes, the coffers are unique and untradable. So someone can't get multiple copies in a single run unless they're super lucky and manage to win multiple rolls and are able to throw them out before rolling on the next. However, if they do have the outfit already, they could just roll on it again.

Still not too bad. Most people will be courteous and won't roll on it if they have the outfit already. But absolute worse case scenario you have a 3/24 chance.

The entire raid is rolling on the coffers 99% of the time, even when I see people in the actual outfit. Or at least it can be assumed, because why would everyone stay to wait out the rolls for the coffers if they didn't roll on it?

I have ran it 7 times now and finally won a song out of all the runs have done got tired and just bought rest songs off the mb for Nier raid. I still have no gear piece from it for the week. They can keep rolling on more coffers if they opened it and put full set in there glamour dresser or equipped it on a retainer. Unless they fix it they can just keep opening them place outfit some where and keep rolling on more. I heard one other day that wanted 7 of them one for each retainer.

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Originally Posted by Duskane

Only complaints because it's something they want ,didn't care one bit about people who did these for minions,orch scrolls or Crafting mats and theres only one of those

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Easy to say for someone who got the outfit. Bet you got it on your first run