3.5 months... 4 months... 4.5 months... 5 months...

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Originally Posted by TomsYoungerBro

And how many emergency maintenances have we had for this 6.3 patch? I think moreso the issue is the benefits aren't quite showing themselves xD.

If the 3.5 month patch cycle was a similar issue to what I heard about Stormblood work load (and how that needed to be reduced), i'm all for it and understanding for sure. My point was that same amount of content stretched out for a longer amount of time will have its impact on the community. Increasing the length of each patch cycle is a change to their formula.

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I knew someone was bound to respond with some silliness.. not at all surprising to see your name again. Here we go...

It's an MMO. This shit happens all the time, no matter what. We're actually blessed here because we have so little downtime compared to other games which have maintenance pretty much every week and it's not in the overnight hours. This only really affects people here in the NA region because of plugins and mods.

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Originally Posted by Deveryn

I knew someone was bound to respond with some silliness.. not at all surprising to see your name again. Here we go...

It's an MMO. This shit happens all the time, no matter what. We're actually blessed here because we have so little downtime compared to other games which have maintenance pretty much every week and it's not in the overnight hours. This only really affects people here in the NA region because of plugins and mods.

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But you said longer time = a better product overall? How was it then that they had to nerf a savage boss for the first time since heavensward then? How was it for the first time EVER they had to fix a bug (in an ultimate) for The Omega Protocol with other potential bugs and oddities that have not been fixed (Was hitting the buffcap intentional? Was Omega-M and F switching up aggro in phase 2 intentional? Was the magic vuln snapshotting on the first P5 auto intentional?).

The 6.3 patch screwed something up with the servers which is not "This shit happens all the time" kind of BS. The 6.3 patch broke a huge variety of things they've been trying to fix in emergency maintenances and there is still much more to go. The servers still aren't like what they were before 6.3. The cone tab targetting is still broken compared to what it was pre-6.3. They actually finally fixed the ninja bug after several weeks. There were several cutscenes that were broken from this patch. The most community-loved cutscene from heavensward? Yeah, it broke from the 6.3 patch XD. This isn't normal FF14 routine maintenance my dude.

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Originally Posted by TomsYoungerBro

But you said longer time = a better product overall? How was it then that they had to nerf a savage boss for the first time since heavensward then? How was it for the first time EVER they had to fix a bug (in an ultimate) for The Omega Protocol with other potential bugs and oddities that have not been fixed (Was hitting the buffcap intentional? Was Omega-M and F switching up aggro in phase 2 intentional? Was the magic vuln snapshotting on the first P5 auto intentional?).

The 6.3 patch screwed something up with the servers which is not "This shit happens all the time" kind of BS. The 6.3 patch broke a huge variety of things they've been trying to fix in emergency maintenances and there is still much more to go. The servers still aren't like what they were before 6.3. The cone tab targetting is still broken compared to what it was pre-6.3. They actually finally fixed the ninja bug after several weeks. There were several cutscenes that were broken from this patch. The most community-loved cutscene from heavensward? Yeah, it broke from the 6.3 patch XD. This isn't normal FF14 routine maintenance my dude.

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At the same time they are working on the netcode and revamping the graphics. Those are huge core items. The netcode did break a lot of things for sure, but if it leads to improvements down the line it will be a huge gain. Previously they wouldn't even touch those things. So I can see they are doing a bit more than usual and because they are doing so, issues are going to happen.

Things don't break when people dont change them, but if anything thats an argument encouraging them to leave stuff as is instead of trying.

All that being said the content droughts are hitting pretty hard imo.

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Originally Posted by Ath192

At the same time they are working on the netcode and revamping the graphics. Those are huge core items. The netcode did break a lot of things for sure, but if it leads to improvements down the line it will be a huge gain. Previously they wouldn't even touch those things. So I can see they are doing a bit more than usual and because they are doing so, issues are going to happen.

Things don't break when people dont change them, but if anything thats an argument encouraging them to leave stuff as is instead of trying.

All that being said the content droughts are hitting pretty hard imo.

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That's the thing with guaranteed drops. Content ends faster. That's one reason why stuff in older MMOs lasted so long. It took months/years to obtain gear. Not because the content was particularly difficult or long lived, but because you had fractions of a percent chance to get the item you wanted. Sure, not having increased ilvls every other patch helps make that a possibility, since no one in their right mind would spend months grinding an item that's obsolete the next day because a new patch just dropped, but I never enjoyed the old MMO rng style of things, and I played Lineage II over XI lol.

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Originally Posted by Valkyrie_Lenneth

That's the thing with guaranteed drops. Content ends faster. That's one reason why stuff in older MMOs lasted so long. It took months/years to obtain gear. Not because the content was particularly difficult or long lived, but because you had fractions of a percent chance to get the item you wanted. Sure, not having increased ilvls every other patch helps make that a possibility, since no one in their right mind would spend months grinding an item that's obsolete the next day because a new patch just dropped, but I never enjoyed the old MMO rng style of things, and I played Lineage II over XI lol.

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Maybe but there's things that can be done to provide new experiences better. For example POTD and HOH were poorly executed. Even though its procedurally generated its just super samey and boring. Imagine procedurally generated areas that have diverse terrains and rooms.

They could easily do entire forests, deserts, and oceans/archipelagos on a ship that always look vastly different for deep dungeon exploration style experiences. But instead they are just barely distinguishable rooms with random mobs.

Like, replayability value doesn't always have to be tied down to a reward for doing the exact same thing over and over. Older MMO's didnt have access to this tech, so thats why they did it, but its 2023, and plenty of examples of this stuff exists.

Edit: Bosses can stand to be a bit more random, with a pool of a lot of mechanics that may or may not be executed in that instance. It just doesn't always have to be the same thing.

I would take extreme bosses with 25 mechanics, out of which only 12 are executed per instance, and reducing the totems to 50 from 100, that would be more fun, more replayable, than what exists right now for example. Same with Savage, with the cap being removed alltogether because obviously its going to be way harder. Instead of this running wheel we spin on to get our weeks worth.

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Originally Posted by Ath192

At the same time they are working on the netcode and revamping the graphics. Those are huge core items. The netcode did break a lot of things for sure, but if it leads to improvements down the line it will be a huge gain. Previously they wouldn't even touch those things. So I can see they are doing a bit more than usual and because they are doing so, issues are going to happen.

Things don't break when people dont change them, but if anything thats an argument encouraging them to leave stuff as is instead of trying.

All that being said the content droughts are hitting pretty hard imo.

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Isnt the graphic revamp for 7.0 though? Not 6.3 xD. Also the server change was not intended. Its a reason why they "reverted" it in the first emergency patch, but there are still problems :(

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Originally Posted by Ath192

Maybe but there's things that can be done to provide new experiences better. For example POTD and HOH were poorly executed. Even though its procedurally generated its just super samey and boring. Imagine procedurally generated areas that have diverse terrains and rooms.

They could easily do entire forests, deserts, and oceans/archipelagos on a ship that always look vastly different for deep dungeon exploration style experiences. But instead they are just barely distinguishable rooms with random mobs.

Like, replayability value doesn't always have to be tied down to a reward for doing the exact same thing over and over. Older MMO's didnt have access to this tech, so thats why they did it, but its 2023, and plenty of examples of this stuff exists.

Edit: Bosses can stand to be a bit more random, with a pool of a lot of mechanics that may or may not be executed in that instance. It just doesn't always have to be the same thing.

I would take extreme bosses with 25 mechanics, out of which only 12 are executed per instance, and reducing the totems to 50 from 100, that would be more fun, more replayable, than what exists right now for example. Same with Savage, with the cap being removed alltogether because obviously its going to be way harder. Instead of this running wheel we spin on to get our weeks worth.

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We already see with current content that people hate certain patterns of mechanics. P8s p1 people will wipe until they get snake first. This would just be a nightmare with random mechanics that can have bad orders. "wipe until we get the easiest set to deal with"



Random mechanics and such are great.... Once.... After that it turns into "ugh, the shit set of mechanics, let's just try again"

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Originally Posted by Valkyrie_Lenneth

We already see with current content that people hate certain patterns of mechanics. P8s p1 people will wipe until they get snake first. This would just be a nightmare with random mechanics that can have bad orders. "wipe until we get the easiest set to deal with"



Random mechanics and such are great.... Once.... After that it turns into "ugh, the shit set of mechanics, let's just try again"

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I still hate P8S p1. My group always got leg day (doggo) first, on every clear. Our parses are pretty trash because of it, and it got to the point where we became used to how we had to do things for leg day. Arm day (snakes) first was always a fever dream that always threw us off when we achieved it. We just got leg day first THAT much, with almost 90% of our pulls in prog leading to it.

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Originally Posted by Valkyrie_Lenneth

We already see with current content that people hate certain patterns of mechanics. P8s p1 people will wipe until they get snake first. This would just be a nightmare with random mechanics that can have bad orders. "wipe until we get the easiest set to deal with"



Random mechanics and such are great.... Once.... After that it turns into "ugh, the shit set of mechanics, let's just try again"

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no because with enough random mechanics groups will have to go through it. They won't wipe 10 hours to get the specific set of mechanics that have a 1 in 100 possibilities of happening. This is only a problem when a boss has a very high chance of repeating the same mechanic over and over. Like a 50% chance, in case of P8S.

Theres no way with 200 combinations that groups will stand there waiting for the preferred one.

I mean if you like the static, unvarying fights to be repeated over and over again with no change thats a fair take, I just don't find that good for replayability value imo.


Like, the only reason that mentality exists is because the game is so static that parsing is the thing people do on fights. But honestly, a game can be made interesting to the point where parsing isn't really what matters, its the content and fun of the fight. Not just your ability to compete and look down on others. And the hardcore parses will still go at it for sure.

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Originally Posted by TomsYoungerBro

How was it then that they had to nerf a savage boss for the first time since heavensward then?

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Because they have probably over-tuned a savage boss before, but top players were able to overcome it because they could align their buffs when they weren't designed to be aligned, and get more damage out of it. Now they design it with alignment in mind so if it's over-tuned it's more of a problem for the first week players.

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How was it for the first time EVER they had to fix a bug (in an ultimate)

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I doubted this, so I checked the maintenances after other ultimates and... one, two, three, four examples.
The second one was a known issue "wherein the description of the status effect Viscous Aetheroplasm in the high-end duty The Weapon's Refrain (Ultimate) is inaccurate."
The third one included fixes for "Titan would stop casting Granite Impact under certain conditions" and "Fetters status could not be removed under certain circumstances when battling Titan" in Weapon's Refrain (Ultimate).

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Was hitting the buffcap intentional?

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This has been reported as a bug and they put it in the "Working as Intended" category.

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The 6.3 patch screwed something up with the servers which is not "This shit happens all the time" kind of BS.

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This was part of their attempts to make players produce less of a burden on the servers, which could allow them to increase the amount of people who can play on servers and you know why they are doing that after the congestion around EW. They obviously didn't expect it to backfire, but they can't easily test how changes like this will perform with hundreds of thousands of real people so there are always risks with these sort of changes.

"With the above two issues, there may be an issue with the measures introduced with Patch 6.3 that were supposed to reduce the burden on the servers"

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The 6.3 patch broke a huge variety of things they've been trying to fix in emergency maintenances and there is still much more to go.

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When I was going through all the maintenances after ultimates, I noticed there was weekly maintenance for a few months after them sometimes. It happens sometimes.

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Originally Posted by TomsYoungerBro

Isnt the graphic revamp for 7.0 though?

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They told us they were going to make some graphics changes sooner, because it would be too much of a risk to test it all at once when releasing an expansion is a risk of its own that once brought the famous "Raubahn Savage". You can test one of these changes already called "dynamic resolution" but it warns you it is the beta version.

These patch cycles usually always end up having a bug that they don't even test before release. Might as well increase the patch cycle to a year since when they do it's half-assed

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Originally Posted by Jeeqbit

Because they have probably over-tuned a savage boss before, but top players were able to overcome it because they could align their buffs when they weren't designed to be aligned, and get more damage out of it. Now they design it with alignment in mind so if it's over-tuned it's more of a problem for the first week players.

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This is just mere assumptions? They probably overtuned a boss before, but they didn't? The fact is they did not, and in the 2min buff meta they did not overtune asphodelos.

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I doubted this, so I checked the maintenances after other ultimates and... one, two, three, four examples.

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Interesting. I did not know UWU had some problems in Titan. So fair that my statement was wrong. Still, this bug happens consistently in all conditions. Meaning that part straight up wasn't tested properly (all the others were under certain conditions).

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This has been reported as a bug and they put it in the "Working as Intended" category.

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Still no mention of the other potential issues of the fight

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This was part of their attempts to make players produce less of a burden on the servers, which could allow them to increase the amount of people who can play on servers and you know why they are doing that after the congestion around EW.

They obviously didn't expect it to backfire, but they can't easily test how changes like this will perform with hundreds of thousands of real people so there are always risks with these sort of changes.

"With the above two issues, there may be an issue with the measures introduced with Patch 6.3 that were supposed to reduce the burden on the servers"

When I was going through all the maintenances after ultimates, I noticed there was weekly maintenance for a few months after them sometimes. It happens sometimes.

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-But again to the point: Longer delay of content = better product quality. This turned into a very buggy patch (even outside of just the server changes and any graphical adjustments).

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Originally Posted by Velvet_Lunarfang

These patch cycles usually always end up having a bug that they don't even test before release. Might as well increase the patch cycle to a year since when they do it's half-assed

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The only thing I know for certain is that they finish a lot of things weeks of months ahead of time and spend that time testing it for bugs, fixing them and then repeating that over and over, reducing the amount of bugs from thousands to hardly any.

Major Patch Development Cycle
Bug Counts Over Time

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Originally Posted by Ath192

no because with enough random mechanics groups will have to go through it. They won't wipe 10 hours to get the specific set of mechanics that have a 1 in 100 possibilities of happening. This is only a problem when a boss has a very high chance of repeating the same mechanic over and over. Like a 50% chance, in case of P8S.

Theres no way with 200 combinations that groups will stand there waiting for the preferred one.

I mean if you like the static, unvarying fights to be repeated over and over again with no change thats a fair take, I just don't find that good for replayability value imo.


Like, the only reason that mentality exists is because the game is so static that parsing is the thing people do on fights. But honestly, a game can be made interesting to the point where parsing isn't really what matters, its the content and fun of the fight. Not just your ability to compete and look down on others. And the hardcore parses will still go at it for sure.

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Even in games where fights aren't fully scripted bosses still use a lot of the same actions. Take souls games for instance. Once you fight a boss once, you tend to know all his mechanics.



It's not really feasible to make every boss have 25ish random mechanics you have to go through. That would be hell to test for one, and if there are combinations that make the fight impossible to clear that'd be even worse.

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Originally Posted by Deveryn

And that translates to a better product overall. That kind of thing should be important to more people.

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My favorite example of a better product is the Portrait system which they released in a pretty good beta state, only to trash it in the full release (with portraits breaking entirely every time you so much as change an accessory)

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Originally Posted by Valkyrie_Lenneth

Even in games where fights aren't fully scripted bosses still use a lot of the same actions. Take souls games for instance. Once you fight a boss once, you tend to know all his mechanics.



It's not really feasible to make every boss have 25ish random mechanics you have to go through. That would be hell to test for one, and if there are combinations that make the fight impossible to clear that'd be even worse.

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I see your point but to me it’s perfectly feasible. All they have to do is individually test them and make sure they are all clearable on their own without requiring unique cooldowns, but cheeseable by them. Kind of like they do now. Where you don’t have to invuln but you could. Then after that take into consideration any downtime they might incur and subtract that from the dps check.

If they are all verified there wouldn’t be a reason to doubt the fight would run into an unclearable combo. And they wouldn’t have to run the fight in all its permutations.

25 is also a random number right, it could be way less, but enough so that the fight is always keeping you on your toes.

5... 5.5... 6.... 6.5.... 7....

Did you absolutely have to go and necro three separate threads about the time between patches, most of them inactive since 2023, to borrow weight for your opinion with artificial thread and page count?

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Originally Posted by Eyrilona

Did you absolutely have to go and necro three separate threads about the time between patches, most of them inactive since 2023, to borrow weight for your opinion with artificial thread and page count?

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It's always good to let people see the idiotic white knighting that happened before :)

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Originally Posted by AnimalsALot

It's always good to let people see the idiotic white knighting that happened before :)

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He's right. A lot of people arent going to like it, but he's absolutely right.
Frankly, I sometimes wonder just what kind of homes some of you came from where you think that being robbed blind is perfectly acceptable. You guys really love YoshiP THAT much? And did you cry when Steve Jobs passed too, or what. Do you people also praise Jeff Bezos and all the other million-billionaires who don't give a toss about you? Anything to line the pockets of the greedy, huh. Yeah no, this is fine.

Servers barely work, yeah that's fine. People still cant get housing-well its part of yoshi's master plan. Stories pacing was horrific, well you just have to wait another year or two and THEN it'll be good. Content takes longer and longer, yeah well, remember, covid happened 4 years ago, so-

Fellas. At what point do you admit...

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Originally Posted by Batbrat

He's right. A lot of people arent going to like it, but he's absolutely right.
Frankly, I sometimes wonder just what kind of homes some of you came from where you think that being robbed blind is perfectly acceptable. You guys really love YoshiP THAT much? And did you cry when Steve Jobs passed too, or what. Do you people also praise Jeff Bezos and all the other million-billionaires who don't give a toss about you? Anything to line the pockets of the greedy, huh. Yeah no, this is fine.

Servers barely work, yeah that's fine. People still cant get housing-well its part of yoshi's master plan. Stories pacing was horrific, well you just have to wait another year or two and THEN it'll be good. Content takes longer and longer, yeah well, remember, covid happened 4 years ago, so-

Fellas. At what point do you admit...

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Yes, I don't even disagree with the point he is trying to make, just with the method -- if a single person digs into the archives to necro every thread from the past two years about a single topic back to the front page, that is to forum posting what a protestor shouting slogans through a megaphone is to someone raising a point.

If you tried to raise an issue (again) and feel that you are not being heard, this is one of the things you'd do to escalate -- it shouldn't be the FIRST thing you do.

The amount of white knighting on this forum has definitely decreased since endwalker. Wonder what happened..

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Originally Posted by TomsYoungerBro

The amount of white knighting on this forum has definitely decreased since endwalker. Wonder what happened..

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Yeah I felt that too.. I used to get many threats of my opinions but now it decreased a lot.

DT was a reality check for white knights

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Originally Posted by TomsYoungerBro

The amount of white knighting on this forum has definitely decreased since endwalker. Wonder what happened..

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Maybe they're finally getting bored of the game too? Or maybe they're too busy ERPing on the S9 sofa.

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Originally Posted by BabyYoda

Yeah I felt that too.. I used to get many threats of my opinions but now it decreased a lot.

DT was a reality check for white knights

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Maybe a lot of us just got tired of the increased (by leaps and bounds) negativity on the forums. I still play the game plenty, I just don't come here anymore.


Also, hilarious that today all of the old titan men patch cycle threads got bumped to the front page, and by all of the usual accounts. I wonder why.

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Originally Posted by Skiros

Oh man, I wonder what excuses they will give next.

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Sorry, but can someone give me the source for this? For the delay of 7.1 I mean.
Not sure how I missed that.

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Originally Posted by honest_psycho

Sorry, but can someone give me the source for this? For the delay of 7.1 I mean.
Not sure how I missed that.

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Look at the date of the post for your answer.

Hint: It was written in mid-2023, aka around the time of 6.3

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Originally Posted by TomsYoungerBro

The amount of white knighting on this forum has definitely decreased since endwalker. Wonder what happened..

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A new expansion dropped, so the people who really enjoy the game are...you know...playing it instead of spending their time around this cesspool?

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Originally Posted by Striker44

A new expansion dropped, so the people who really enjoy the game are...you know...playing it instead of spending their time around this cesspool?

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The expansion dropped about 2 months ago, and a lot of the (non reviewbombing) feedback is incredibly mid. So really, it is most likely more people have grown tired of the current state of the game.

Also, regarding that cesspool bit, this forum is the official channel for feedback for this game. Criticism of the current status is to be expected.

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Originally Posted by TomsYoungerBro

The amount of white knighting on this forum has definitely decreased since endwalker. Wonder what happened..

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Shadowbringer ended.
We all know the memes but ShB was by far the best expansion in terms of story and content.

People are tired of eating the same slop and somehow got even less of it:
Ranged just existing for the 1% role.
Healers being boring to play.
SMN got dumbed, MCH&DRK didn't had meaningfull change despite their rework being "A base to expand upon".
EW had poor battle content either casual dungeons&maps or savage&ultimate, only repetitive Extreme and Deep dungeon in-between.
Relics were just given, no work to earn them just take the weapon.

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Originally Posted by CKNovel

Shadowbringer ended.
We all know the memes but ShB was by far the best expansion in terms of story and content.

People are tired of eating the same slop and somehow got even less of it:
Ranged just existing for the 1% role.
Healers being boring to play.
SMN got dumbed, MCH&DRK didn't had meaningfull change despite their rework being "A base to expand upon".
EW had poor battle content either casual dungeons&maps or savage&ultimate, only repetitive Extreme and Deep dungeon in-between.
Relics were just given, no work to earn them just take the weapon.

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And one that didn't get much praise as the other ones. Understandably so because EO looks like an afterthought in every aspect: The protomanders didn't offer much innovation, the common enemies offering very little threat other than not get hit by their aoes, the Demiclones feeling a bit flat compared to how good the HoH magicite is. The worse aspect for me is the story being once again centered around the Allagan Empire and the Crystal Tower. If they really wanted a DD themed after high tech, why not an abandoned Garlean underground facility? They even have the perfect cue for it: explore the origins of the Black Rose, which was a shame of a plot device that got completely resolved off screen.

Also as a Phys Ranged enthusiast, I really agree. The role is somehow even more problematic than healers. It's just there... nothing special about it, and even that extra mit gets obsolete as people gear up.

https://st3.depositphotos.com/161224...iving-room.jpg

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Originally Posted by Raikai

And one that didn't get much praise as the other ones. Understandably so because EO looks like an afterthought in every aspect: The protomanders didn't offer much innovation, the common enemies offering very little threat other than not get hit by their aoes, the Demiclones feeling a bit flat compared to how good the HoH magicite is. The worse aspect for me is the story being once again centered around the Allagan Empire and the Crystal Tower. If they really wanted a DD themed after high tech, why not an abandoned Garlean underground facility? They even have the perfect cue for it: explore the origins of the Black Rose, which was a shame of a plot device that got completely resolved off screen.

Also as a Phys Ranged enthusiast, I really agree. The role is somehow even more problematic than healers. It's just there... nothing special about it, and even that extra mit gets obsolete as people gear up.

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Orthos is the best illustration of the battle design shift the game has gone through when compared to PotD and HoH. It's all about AoEs and DDR once more.

I don't fully agree with the post you quoted. Stating that ShB was the best expansion in terms of content while making a list of all the complaints players have (rphys 1% role, boring healers, etc) that ShB specifically brought sounds very dissonant in my mind. But I definitely agree with the problems either way, and that rphys is just a role remnant of an older era that's designed for older types of content: it just doesn't mesh well with the current uptime based design, and feels like a quarantine role for players that never were on board with ShB meta changes.

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Originally Posted by Skiros

Oh man, I wonder what excuses they will give next.

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where are people pulling 5 months from? has this EVER been stated anywhere? its been exactly 3 months since DT released, with the pll scheduled for this sunday, ususally the PLL is 2-4 weeks before the patch. so where, WHERE are people getting this from?
https://media.discordapp.net/attachm...ality=lossless

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Originally Posted by Valence

rphys is just a role remnant of an older era that's designed for older types of content: it just doesn't mesh well with the current uptime based design, and feels like a quarantine role for players that never were on board with ShB meta changes.

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Quarantine role... ouch. But that's really what it feels. Now, if they mean to keep the job groups balanced, is very likely that we'll see a Phys Ranged as the next DPSer, which leads me to speculate if they're even thinking about a whole overhaul of the aiming group. I would personally move all group wide utility to them (Feint, addle, etc) and let the other dpsers and tanks have only personal utilities (like personal shields and mits, self healing, etc). Wouldn't fix everything, but at least would have that supporting aspect more defined beyond just damage support.

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Originally Posted by sindriiisgaming

where are people pulling 5 months from? has this EVER been stated anywhere? its been exactly 3 months since DT released, with the pll scheduled for this sunday, ususally the PLL is 2-4 weeks before the patch. so where, WHERE are people getting this from?
https://media.discordapp.net/attachm...ality=lossless

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This is the first PLL. Usually this 2-4 weeks time happens only after the second PLL... We don't even have the Mogtome event yet, which is the definite 1-month mark prior to the patch. Likely we'll get the event's start October 8th, and the patch date November 5th, with the second live letter somewhere around the 3rd week of November.

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Originally Posted by Raikai

We don't even have the Mogtome event yet, which is the definite 1-month mark prior to the patch Likely we'll get the event's start October 8th, and the patch date November 5th, with the second live letter somewhere around the 3rd week of November.

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lets just address some things.

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We don't even have the Mogtome event yet, which is the definite 1-month mark prior to the patch

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Firstly. not every major patch has a mog event, so marking it WITH a mog event, wouldn't actually be wise.

Secondly. the PLL will release THIS week. 2 months 4 weeks, then if you theory is accurate, it would be 4 weeks, that would be 3 months and 4 weeks. thats would be 4 months. there is no information you've given that suggests anywhere near 5 months.

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Likely we'll get the event's start October 8th, and the patch date November 5th

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Im really sorry, but this number is completly fabricated. none of this assumptionis based in ANY concerte evidence.
I think it would be wise to look at the patch cycle of former expansions aswell, and you will see 4.2 months was NEVER breached. and this is well within confirmed cycles. i dont understand WHERE u are pulling these figures from.

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Usually this 2-4 weeks time happens only after the second PLL.

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This number is factually incorrect

Deemberc 3 - ENDWALKER
April 12 - 6.1 (4 months 1 week)
august 23 - 6.2 (4 months 1 week)
Jan 10 - 6.3 (4 months 2 weeks)
may 23 - 6.4 (4 months 1 week)
Oct 3 - 6.5 (4 months 1 week)

I understand people are NOT satisfied with the state of the game., but PLEASE. do not spread false information to exadurate your claims

I think we need more bolded text.