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We used to have 3 dungeons, yes. We also didn't have Aquapolis, Lord of Verminion (Bad at the start but they fixed it by putting it in the DF), the GS TT Battlehall, Chocobo Race challenges, SSS dummies, Diadem (it was actually popular when it was new), The Feast, etc. Let's just act as if nothing new was introduced to XIV through 3.0 to 3.5, shall we?
That's typically what I was talking about when I mentioned content below the industry standards. Aside from PoTD (which is content based on FFXI design), every piece of content you mentioned has been abandoned very quickly by the player base due to very low quality standards.
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Cop out answer, you'd need hard subscription numbers as well as potential income from said subscribers. If the profits of 2.0-2.5 are higher than 3.0-3.5 come June, then I'll be glad to accept that I am wrong, otherwise, I'm sure XIV is doing just fine.
Please note I m talking about the number of players. Not the income from FFXIV.