The chance of winning the 3 lines reward of Wondrous Tails is ridiculously low

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Originally Posted by Alistaire

People are complaining it's RNG is like people in real life complaining the lotto is RNG when the only effort involved is going to the store and getting a $5 ticket. Of course with that little effort you can't be guaranteed a big payoff; that's the whole point of a lotto.

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My argument is that it's quite a lot of effort, doing all those duties and still only relying on rng to gain something, when I could just spend less time crafting the item. A better comparison is the cactpot to the lottery, all I have to do is go buy a ticket, if I don't win, tough luck, try again.

All im saying is, effort should equal reward.

And looking at those rewards? I don't see much point in doing it.

RNG this bad is stupid. Someone can be lucky enough to get the 5 slot crafted gear 2 weeks in a row while other people don't get 3 lines a single time before 4.0. It's especially bad when it's not just cosmetic items like the Cactpot.

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Originally Posted by Genaxx

My argument is that it's quite a lot of effort

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See here's why we're arguing here. None of this stuff shown is new content so there's almost literally no effort. Some of these are even soloable. Most you wouldn't even remotely need a full party.

And that 1/470 chance becomes about 1/100 with these 9 "second chance points" used. Even without 3 lines, even without 2 lines, if those 2 items for 1 line are mhachi matter (they're the right icon), that's 1m+ considering how much tier 5 demand is going to go up. Just how much better than that do you feel entitled to for old content?

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Originally Posted by Alistaire

See here's why we're arguing here. None of this stuff shown is new content so there's almost literally no effort. Some of these are even soloable. Most you wouldn't even remotely need a full party.

And that 1/470 chance becomes about 1/100 with these 9 "second chance points" used. Even without 3 lines, even without 2 lines, if those 2 items for 1 line are mhachi matter (they're the right icon), that's 1m+ considering how much tier 5 demand is going to go up. Just how much better than that do you feel entitled to for old content?

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Perhaps I should have said time instead of effort then, im not saying the content is difficult, its time consuming. And since this game is apparently designed for players who don't have that much time. I don't see much incentive for people to do it, since it will require; roulettes, dungeons, trials, Ex content, alexander, coil, raids and pvp.

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We obviously have different opinions on what is of value. I could make 20 mil with the time spent trying to get those 2 Grade V's worth 1 mil...

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Originally Posted by Genaxx

Perhaps I should have said time instead of effort then, im not saying the content is difficult, its time consuming. And since this game is apparently designed for players who don't have that much time. I don't see much incentive for people to do it, since it will require; roulettes, dungeons, trials, Ex content, alexander, coil, raids and pvp.

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Looking at the one line award. I can put a couple hours "effort" into this and possibly get free grade materia V. So... in some way, I almost hope enough feel the same way as you. More gil for me if the grade V materia market doesn't sink. :p

That being said, .20% is silly. Like I said earlier, you could bump it up to 1-5% to make it semi-decent.

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Originally Posted by Launched

RNG this bad is stupid. Someone can be lucky enough to get the 5 slot crafted gear 2 weeks in a row while other people don't get 3 lines a single time before 4.0. It's especially bad when it's not just cosmetic items like the Cactpot.

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Nobody needs gear with 5 materia slots. The game isn't balanced around having a piece of gear filled with Tier V materia. Would it be nice to have? Sure. But it's not needed. There appear to be versions of the gear with regular meld slots on them. If you need the gear, you have other ways to obtain it. If you end up getting lucky and get the version with 5 meld slots? Congratulations. But you really didn't need it.

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Originally Posted by Zafrei

Sorry but I wouldn't buy from crafters anyway. I know levelling crafting is a real ball-ache (that in itself is its own issue and needs to be addressed) but crafted gear is severely overpriced. No way, no how.

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This man speaks the truth.

I think anyone complaining about this is likely in the wrong mindset about it.

I just quit sacrificing Lalafellins for the RNGesus, guess its time to lure more of them to my Oven.

Personally the minion is the reward I'm most interested in.
As someone who gets most of their gil from selling the weekly t5 materia from Weeping City the chance for an extra 2 per week is also very attractive. :D

I'm also looking forward to having a reason to go back to content I haven't run in awhile and hope that the "second chance" incentive will make it easier for new players to get clear groups going.

The rarity of the gear doesn't bother me. Tome stuff is fine for the content I run.

For those overly concerned about the last tier of gear "being outdated and DOA" thus making the effort to obtain it useless, I'd like to remind you that odd-tiered patches don't increase ilevel, and after that we'll be looking towards 4.0. 3.4 was the PERFECT time to start handing out gear as a reward, as we're going to be stuck with our new ilevels for at LEAST seven months, though more like eight or nine realistically.

Even then, however, it's nine instances a week (at least two of which look like the standard roulettes) for a large handful of free tomestones at the very worst, I don't see a reason NOT to do it.

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Originally Posted by Alistaire

The entitlement here is off the charts. I've been playing MMO's since they were text-based. D&D and Palladium rpgs before that. You'd have to have a terrible GM to just hand out the best stuff available just because you showed up.

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you don't get the token for free or simply by going to buy stuff, you need to go complet duty for earn this. however the reward is random. you can get something nice or simply bad reward for age. that how rng is played.
in D&D a mj know when he must stop to use rng, if your player chain bad roll (what can happend often) you are forced to change your story for not make it frustrating. soo far SE is making tons of RNG content, but have fail to put in place anti frustration counter part.

because i must remember you that we are customer first.... and when the customer is only showed content with high degree of frustration people don't stay or simply ignore this. saying right now that puting all behind rng is bad is not that strange, it's quite normal and must be listened. or this content will be another niche content that will soon only be used by less of 10% of the community.

and we are not talking about the reward by itself, but about the system that will mostly lead people to be frustrated or simply not wanting to partake this sort of content. not everyone like gambling, it was said countless, personally i hate gambling and i'm tired to see that FF14 get more and more and more and more gambling system. japanese like this, but that not case of everyone and it will nice to remember that not everyone is from japan nor gambling lover.

any effort you put into the game, deserve reward, the fact that the reward is behind another rng shit... because i need to call it like this... is tiring and make me not wanting to partake into it. you like gambling fine, but thanks to respect people that simply don't want more gambling, gold saucer is the place for gambling, we don't need more gambling stuff outside the gold saucer!

ps: like said, i don't care for the reward, i'm only concerned by this will to put everything behind gambling junk. we need more stuff that effort = reward. because doing the 16 duty is an effort. make the reward after this a gambling is a bad idea! very bad idea!

I guess I won't bother for this piece of content. Everything else on there I can get easily anyway so dead content on arrival thanks SE :D People will do it for a bit then realize how much of a waste of time it is. Maybe if the chances were a bit higher I would have considered doing it.

60 tomes? Why when I just do expert?
Item for Tier 5 Materia? Well I got bunch of those during 3.3 so I will just continue doing 24 man each week
Minion? Oh guess I can summon it once then never again.
Poetics? Really... why would i need this at 60...

In all honesty everything on there is just junk in my opinion for doing all those tasks except for the bottom stuff which he even said at least one person per week would get... whats the point of even make this if only 1-5 people would get it a week...

If they made it so if you do everything on there you get a free 250 for the week it would be a good way to get entrance gear for raiding and those aiming for world first can craft it. Also a somewhat good catch up mechanic but i guess that is just too logical for SE.

It's a good thing it's rare HQ crafted gear with 5 100% materia slots should never be handed out like candy.

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Originally Posted by Lone-wolfe-02

It's a good thing it's rare HQ crafted gear with 5 100% materia slots should never be handed out like candy.

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Remember what happened with Diadem, your argument is not well thought.

I have to laugh at people working out the odds for this and completely failing to take into account the 'second chance' system which massively swings the odds in your favour...

The fact is the odds aren't anywhere near as bad as many of you want to pretend they are because you'll likely get at least a few of those second chances somewhere along the line. Maybe wait and see how big a difference they make before you go into panic mode?

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Originally Posted by Alberel

I have to laugh at people working out the odds for this and completely failing to take into account the 'second chance' system which massively swings the odds in your favour...

The fact is the odds aren't anywhere near as bad as many of you want to pretend they are because you'll likely get at least a few of those second chances somewhere along the line. Maybe wait and see how big a difference they make before you go into panic mode?

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I find it very strange how they don't allow you shuffle when you have 9/9 stamps even before you give it in and only allow you to do it only between 3-7.... hmm....

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Originally Posted by Remus

I guess I won't bother for this piece of content.

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If that 3rd place prize icon is mhachi matter you would be crazy not to. You can end up without a single line, but with all the rerolling opportunities, and even without, it'd be pretty hard to not get at least one line.

Moral of the story: wait till the content is at least out till you cry foul. This thread, man.

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Originally Posted by Genaxx

Perhaps I should have said time instead of effort then, im not saying the content is difficult, its time consuming. And since this game is apparently designed for players who don't have that much time. I don't see much incentive for people to do it, since it will require; roulettes, dungeons, trials, Ex content, alexander, coil, raids and pvp.

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We obviously have different opinions on what is of value. I could make 20 mil with the time spent trying to get those 2 Grade V's worth 1 mil...

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You realize this content is going to create a ton of PF's for each fight involved right? Or maybe I should assume you hadn't thought of that since you say it's time consuming. And I've been an active crafter (less so now cause what do you do with over 200m?), so I know what it takes to make 20m. Don't kid yourself, doing 9 fights each 5-10 minutes long for 1m of materia and a shot at something that would save someone 5-50 or even more failed tier 5 overmeld attempts is worth it. Don't kid yourself over how fast 20m is made, let alone how boring it is to do it entirely through crafting.

I love the completionist compulsion here - that, if they don't get ALL the rewards on the sheet, that it's worthless to do.

I see Machi matter, I see 500 poetics (great for catching up on Anima questing.) I see Scripture tomestone bonuses (Less Roulettes you say? Sign me up!)

There's plenty of rewards on this graph to do it weekly to not have to be gifted by an HQ crafted item.

I'm gonna ask this because something tells me that there is a bit of unintentional deception involved. Are we really gonna get gear with 5 open slots? I'm sorry but I think that is too good to be true no matter how gated it is

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Originally Posted by Alistaire

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For this piece of content why do you even need to wait till its out? They explain what it is in the patch notes and how it works it won't suddenly change when we are in-game. There are certain pieces of content that you don't need to try it for you to see how it works and how its going to be. I look at Wonderous Tails and see it as a waste of time for the amount of stuff I need to do for a potential chances (small chance at that) for something somewhat good. For some people it may be great piece of content and I won't say they are wrong but currently me seeing it now I can tell I won't do it. I mean you don't even get both the 60 tomes and matter you have to pick one which is just even more silly.

There are certain pieces of content where you need to try it before you can get a better opinion but this content isn't one of them a good example would be the new Alexander.

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Originally Posted by Alistaire

You realize this content is going to create a ton of PF's for each fight involved right? Or maybe I should assume you hadn't thought of that since you say it's time consuming. And I've been an active crafter (less so now cause what do you do with over 200m?), so I know what it takes to make 20m. Don't kid yourself, doing 9 fights each 5-10 minutes long for 1m of materia and a shot at something that would save someone 5-50 or even more failed tier 5 overmeld attempts is worth it. Don't kid yourself over how fast 20m is made, let alone how boring it is to do it entirely through crafting.

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Actually I enjoy crafting and am not 'kidding' myself over how fast 20m is made.

Don't kid yourself that each will last 5-10 minutes. It's 9 duties that can be dungeons, raids, pvp and trials. Plus any that you have to rety if you don't get your lines, and even then your not guaranteed a reward.

Also, i'm done arguing with you o/

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Originally Posted by Kaldiin

That's a lot of time for such a little chance.

Feel free to correct me if the calculation is wrong but so far, it seems a really disappointing addition.

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The reward is also an i250 HQ piece with 5 Materia Slots or a i190 HQ piece for Crafters with 5 materia slots. That's an INCREDIBLE reward and it deserves to have a very low chance of being obtained. Being able to fully meld a piece of gear with absolutely no failures is insane.

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Originally Posted by ColorOfSakura

The reward is also an i250 HQ piece with 5 Materia Slots or a i190 HQ piece for Crafters with 5 materia slots. That's an INCREDIBLE reward and it deserves to have a very low chance of being obtained. Being able to fully meld a piece of gear with absolutely no failures is insane.

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Exactly, it's a great piece of gear so it shouldn't be locked behind RNG. It should be guaranteed from completing difficult content.

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Originally Posted by Alistaire

Moral of the story: wait till the content is at least out till you cry foul. This thread, man.

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This. So much.
I'm getting a huge deja-vu of how butthurt people here were before Aquapolis came out

Oh look, another great idea implemented poorly because the devs can't get over their gambling addictions

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Originally Posted by Launched

Exactly, it's a great piece of gear so it shouldn't be locked behind RNG. It should be guaranteed from completing difficult content.

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okay sure, lets make it drop once a week from the last alexander savage but only the combat piece.

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Originally Posted by RyuSaarva

okay sure, lets make it drop once a week from the last alexander savage but only the combat piece.

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Not a bad idea. It would let raiders gear alt jobs faster so they can mess around with compositions, and the people that don't raid won't care because they don't do anything where crafted gear with 5 guaranteed slots would be really useful.

Another complaining thread about content that hasnt even up yet.

Do you guys dont understand that this reward is a HQ DoL/H with 5 100% slots? You dont see that, do you?
Of course is gonna be something rare, beacuse of not it would destroy the markets.

And we still havent touched the second chnage points...

ohh my god what is wrong with the people, seriosuly the first comments are always people just tring to chill out to maker themselfs being hear and saing total nonscences with no proof whatsoever that this content will be bad.

I'm pretty stoked for wondrous tails personally, gives me something else to do that isn't just run dungeon roulettes over and over again and it has a chance of getting relevant gear. Of course eventually it'll feel same old same old but then again that's everything after a certain point in this game :)

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Originally Posted by Frederick22

Another complaining thread about content that hasnt even up yet.

Do you guys dont understand that this reward is a HQ DoL/H with 5 100% slots? You dont see that, do you?
Of course is gonna be something rare, beacuse of not it would destroy the markets.

And we still havent touched the second chnage points...

ohh my god what is wrong with the people, seriosuly the first comments are always people just tring to chill out to maker themselfs being hear and saing total nonscences with no proof whatsoever that this content will be bad.

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i understand it. and i also understand that it is completely useless.

the chance to get it only depends on RNG. so if you are a crafter - you can't rely on that RNG. you have to get the craftet version of the gear and you have to overmeld it for millions. of course you can play the waiting game and hope to win the gear with 5 slots, but that will probably never happen.

so... are you playing the lottery then? or are you buying the craftet version? and if you already have the crafted version and overmelded it for millions - are you playing the lottery then? to probably win the lottery and replace your expensive invest? do you even want that for a small stat increase?

same can be said abaout the battle gear. either you buy the crafted 250 gear and overmeld it with grade 4 materia (or 5 if you are rich) in the first weeks of the patch or it will be useless because you already have ilvl 260 / 270 gear later in the patch cycle wich is (in almost all cases) better than overmeldet i250.

the reward is not only really good - it is also useless. the design is fail. the gear is too good, so they have to lock it behind ridiculous RNG, wich makes the whole thing obsolete.

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Originally Posted by Tint

i understand it. and i also understand that it is completely useless.

the chance to get it only depends on RNG. so if you are a crafter - you can't rely on that RNG. you have to get the craftet version of the gear and you have to overmeld it for millions. of course you can play the waiting game and hope to win the gear with 5 slots, but that will probably never happen.

so... are you playing the lottery then? or are you buying the craftet version? and if you already have the crafted version and overmelded it for millions - are you playing the lottery then? to probably win the lottery and replace your expensive invest? do you even want that for a small stat increase?

same can be said abaout the battle gear. either you buy the crafted 250 gear and overmeld it with grade 4 materia (or 5 if you are rich) in the first weeks of the patch or it will be useless because you already have ilvl 260 / 270 gear later in the patch cycle wich is (in almost all cases) better than overmeldet i250.

the reward is not only really good - it is also useless. the design is fail. the gear is too good, so they have to lock it behind ridiculous RNG, wich makes the whole thing obsolete.

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Thats your opinion, it doesnt make it useless.

It has to be something like a loterry, the reward is something unique that you wont get elsewere...

People may want to spend gil and materia and going to the secure way, or waiting to see if they have the luck of getting something even better but rare.
What will they choice? we dont know, is theirs desicions.

Just think on it, not so many people would risk a materia V on a the last rng slot, right?

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Originally Posted by SpookyGhost

Not all of us have nothing else going on in their lives to dedicate a bunch of time to complete wastes of time like this. I'm sure seeing that miqote girl will definitely remain a really good motivation after the first time - because man those polygons really get me going!

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You're speaking of only this game or video games in general?

where does it say you can only do 9? one of the challenges is to accrue 9 regardless of the position they are in... but I don't see anything that says you can't keep going after 9, merely that 9 is one of the four goals...

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Originally Posted by Duuude007

where does it say you can only do 9? one of the challenges is to accrue 9 regardless of the position they are in... but I don't see anything that says you can't keep going after 9, merely that 9 is one of the four goals...

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It says you can receive "up to 9 seals", implying that 9 is the maximum. There is also an image presented in the notes that shows 5/9 seals acquired, again showing that 9 is the maximum.

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Originally Posted by Frederick22

Thats your opinion, it doesnt make it useless.

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A friend of mine could have sat around forever hoping to win the cactpot to earn the Fenrir mount, but he didn't, he chose to work his ass off for the MGP to purchase it from that effort cause he really wanted it. A raider certainly isn't going to prolong his raid's static so he can have this uber cool penta meld gear he'll replace in a couple weeks of effort. Just as likely, a crafter isn't going to just sit there and not build up their craft and make this gear themselves in hopes that Santa comes early.

Minions, mounts, furniture or glamour are one thing. Having some uber gear as a chance reward sounds nice, but gear has a shelf-life, especially combat gear. Either you get lucky and get a lead early on or it'll be something that you chance upon at some point later down the road. The ultimate difference being it probably only of actual use if it's early on, otherwise it's just gil in the bank. Could have just given that as a reward, gil will always be useful no matter the situation.

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Originally Posted by Launched

Exactly, it's a great piece of gear so it shouldn't be locked behind RNG. It should be guaranteed from completing difficult content.

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No? Not every good piece of gear has to come from difficult content and I literally do not understand why you people have this mindset. There should always ALWAYS be alternative ways to gear your character, especially if you're eventually planning to tackle hardcore content. Wonderous Tails is a way to keep old content relevant and help players with clears - giving it good rewards is a way to ensure players use it. People aren't going to be getting full sets of this gear from Wonderous Tails - it's meant to be supplementary, not for people who want to World First stuff. Especially since Creator (Savage) is going to drop higher than i250 gear /anyways/.

There is a lot of speculation going on here and not all of it is guaranteed to be correct.

We do not fully know how the Second chance system is going to work.

While the chance of getting a 3 Line is 1 in 476 base. Depending on how the Second Chance system works it might be possible to force a 3 line.

There is not much to be done if each sticker is randomly chosen when the duty is complete, but if every sticker is assigned to a random task slot when the book is generated and then using the 1 point Second Chance may allow you to figure out which sticker is where and the 2 point shuffle option might allow you to set up a viable pattern when you have completed 2 to 7 tasks.

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Originally Posted by Jetstream_Fox

For a game that renders each patch gear obsolete every 3 months, having a low probability of getting the gear will likely make this content dead on arrival, maybe I'm wrong, but I it just seems like a really bad way to get players craving that gear, especially if it's targeting old content that SE is still trying to make relevant.

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6 months
dungeon gears don't count

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Originally Posted by RyuSaarva

okay sure, lets make it drop once a week from the last alexander savage but only the combat piece.

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Not the gear, but mats to craft the gear. And other mats from other contents.
And mats that you get for 1000 Scripture tomes each (yes, the weekly cap tome).
And then craft all together with a 3 star recipe.

That should keep it rare, too (and very expensive in the MB)

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Originally Posted by Felis

That should keep it rare, too (and very expensive in the MB)

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Up to the point no one is ever crafting it...
We already see some things not in MB because NO one is doing them!
Same as some things were once in MB and now you hopelessly search for them!