12 weeks of Coil T6+T7 without my loot dropping.

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Originally Posted by AdamFyi

Not to be that guy but, that's just Gamblers Fallacy. The drops you get on one occasion does not affect the drops you get in another occasion. Since there are always 9 possible drops - no matter what, there will always be a 1/9th of a chance for each item to drop. The chances of each item dropping consecutively will always remain 1/9th because each event occurs independent of previous events.

Sometimes I don't like it because it gives the RNG power to troll you. Curse you healer robe! Why won't you ever drop? :(

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That's what I said, every time, you have 1/9, but like I said also, it's not completly true.
It's true also that, to get 4 times same item in row, you have 1 / 9x9x9x9, or 1/6561.

Both are true.
Every time, you'll have 1/9, yes, and to get same item 4 times in row, you have 1/6561, why there should be only affirmation true ?
I dont know if you get the point, but yes, getting an item once, doesn't incrase the chance to not the same item again.
I cant really explain this well.

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Originally Posted by Artiste

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Maybe I worded it wierdly? What I'm trying to say is that, yes, getting it consecutively is an extremely low chance! I wasn't disagreeing with you completely. I was pointing out that you can't expect something should drop just because it hasn't dropped in a long time. :)

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Originally Posted by Lithera

No...statistically you stand a pretty good chance of seeing your weapon. After 14 runs you have a 6/9 shot of having seeing your wep of choice at least once. The 26 attempts is simply the point where all 9 weps should have fallen at least once. Your static will have 8 people...it's expected that you'll see 8/9 weapons in 22 attempts.

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22 attempts is for any 8 weapons. For a specific 8 weapons, the expected number is actually 25 runs (since 8 out of 9 times, the last weapon you need will only drop last, after you've seen all of them).

Also, about the probability of 12 weeks of t6 and t7 without seeing any loot for a class. There are 5 types of loot (fending, slaying, aiming, casting, healing). So for each chest probability of not getting your loot is 0.8 (assuming the loots are distributed evenly, I'm not sure if that's true). To fail 48 times in a row (12 weeks of 4 chests each), total probability is then 0.0022%, or 1 in 44,842. If there are 2 million players in this game, and if 10% of them can clear t6 and t7 regularly since 3 months ago, the OP can expect to find 3 other players as unlucky http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/i...ies/tongue.png

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Originally Posted by Lithera

There IS tokens...it's called Soldiery Tomestones...would you prefer they delete Coil and make both armor sets Soldiery gear? Sorry RNG is screwing you but for every person like you there's a group that has your drop raining on them every week.

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Which isn't exactly fair because it's not like that group is putting in more effort or displaying more skill. RNG is literally the worst reward system ever conceived of. Other developers realized this pretty quickly and fixed it. SE is stuck in the past.

u are all guessing all the loot has the same chance of dropping , and maybe that's not true.

maybe SE change loot % chance of items on maint /patch ...

/tinfoil hat

or maybe boss drops are changed on real time , invisible gms hidden while u fighting and poping the chests w/o loot for your job!

I'm just as frustrated about RNG loot drops as you all. Probably at least 25 weeks of doing T6, and I've never even seen the Monk helm once.....never seen it and I'm probably the only monk on the entire server that doesn't have it......

As for the weapon.....I wish it would alternate depending on party composition and who does and doesn't have the weapon.....so you get your main jobs covered first....but's that's just wishful thinking....Either that or give a token for each T9 down, and after 5 weeks or something, you'd accumulate enough to obtain the weapon you want before you leave the Main Bridge?

is this a new topic?

Never got my Osode in FFXI...

Never got my SG ring in LOTRO

Never even seen Armor of Light drop in this game.

You move on, its that simple.

Meh back in the original coil, my group did T1 to T4 for about 8 or 9 weeks before a single tank piece dropped. RNG is RNG.

yeah 3 months, about 12 weeks. no t7 healer chest to be seen in any of my teams... my fc just cleared t7 for the 3rd? time and got it to drop lol... rng =.=

I haven't seen BRD Helmet or Gloves drop in T7 since SCOB came out -_-

I also haven't seen Bow or Coat for T9 in weeks lmao.

DARN YOU RNG!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Originally Posted by ananda

...the OP can expect to find 3 other players as unlucky http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/i...ies/tongue.png

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Like me >.>

Several weeks of farming Levi EX.... No healer drops. Then another WHM comes. Tidal buckler drops. I roll 98, other WHM rolls... 99.

Several more days of farming... Mirror drops. 98.... to 99 again.

Then Tidal drops again... 25 loss to 26. (And guy afterwards claims that he had it for several weeks)

And no drops since.

I never seen the same item drop week after week until we all got what we need, then it just cycled back once we got all our pieces. The system is clearly fine since the rest of you should of been more "dedicated" if you didn't want the same loot dropping/not dropping week after week.

Stop being lazy. #atmaRNG

The drop system is garbage especially considering the gear is good for 6 months max.

I'm well into 20s for tier 6-8 and my group killed t9 for the 11th time yesterday.

We are missing a ton of drops and continue to get the same weapons. (3 DRG 3 WHM 2 SMN in 11 kills)

The gear is outdated too fast for lockout and RNG. SE needs to pick one or the other.

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Originally Posted by SirTaint

The drop system is garbage especially considering the gear is good for 6 months max.

I'm well into 20s for tier 6-8 and my group killed t9 for the 11th time yesterday.

We are missing a ton of drops and continue to get the same weapons. (3 DRG 3 WHM 2 SMN in 11 kills)

The gear is outdated too fast for lockout and RNG. SE needs to pick one or the other.

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I definitely agree with that. A lot of the gear gets outdated really fast or are already fairly outdated.

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Originally Posted by SirTaint

The drop system is garbage especially considering the gear is good for 6 months max.

I'm well into 20s for tier 6-8 and my group killed t9 for the 11th time yesterday.

We are missing a ton of drops and continue to get the same weapons. (3 DRG 3 WHM 2 SMN in 11 kills)

The gear is outdated too fast for lockout and RNG. SE needs to pick one or the other.

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This all day.

Heh, i'd been working on second coil for about a month without seeing a healer drop.

1 shot t6 last night - healer gloves drop. Only non-fc member in the raid group was a healer pugged as our regular healer was offline. Of course, he won the roll. Sigh, back to the drawing board. Oh, said healer also then came with us into t7, no healer loot from there, but got the roll on a bard item.

Some just got the luck eh? xD Always next week (or.. ya know, whenever this stuff becomes very obsolete with new coil soon).

They should just add a token to the end of t9 that you can exchange for any HA armor or accessory piece.

Cleared t7 around that many times and haven't gotten my gloves

So many people argue that a token system in coil would make coil loot like soldiery loot.

It won't. Cause you still have to beat coil to get it. lol.

I'm going on about 27ish weeks of not seeing my dragoon boots. I stopped counting at week 20.

Probably more like 25 weeks. Doesn't matter.

^ ouchies!!

Twelve weeks of farming t7 on my main, no Mask of Aiming.
Second week of farming t7 on my alt, Mask of Aiming.

Mask is the last thing I need for BiS on my main, Mask is the FIRST drop I got on my alt.

Le sad.

Never seen anything but the T8 pants for my bard in the weeks this has been out. I know the feels :(

I think they need to up the rates for darklight in CC and AV, i keep speed running it but all i get is dark matter ; ;! cmon SE!!

Still waiting on my tank legs. >_>

I can relate. My group has been together for 2 months and still no melee drops. We get healer drops every week and the occasional tank drop.

From someone that plays WOW, you arent telling the full story, the token system in WOW is ONLY FOR TIER GEAR, and there is alternative drops for those items and EVERYTHING ELSE is drops from raids, so no, stop trying to twist the arguement, WOW has the exact same RNG and guess what, there is less complaining from there, P.S, Ive wait once 8 months for a specific item before.

it is called RANDOM loot for a reason. not we drop what you want to drop. you just get bad luck

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Originally Posted by Orlandeu

I'm going on about 27ish weeks of not seeing my dragoon boots. I stopped counting at week 20.

Probably more like 25 weeks. Doesn't matter.

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could be a pointless post but sold boots are bis anyroad.

I did Turn 4 40-50 times (across 2 characters) and never saw a single striking head. It finally dropped the last week of Turn 1 coil and was then made pretty much redundant with Turn 6 head (Which I haven't seen so far either).

"RNG is RNG" - as quoted by all those with stockholm syndrome

Square Enix RNG is not RNG.

Maybe once their programmers figure out how to put actual RNG into this game, you can claim that. Or I dunno, maybe you like seeing "You obtain nothing." 3 times in a row on a 97% chance to succeed or having 8/10 desynths @ 70% blow up. Defending this kind of stuff is getting old.

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Originally Posted by Lithera

14 kills is statistically nowhere close to a large enough data set to prove anything btw. How many of the weps have you actually seen? Statistically you should have seen 6/9 weapons after 14 runs or 8 repeat weapons of varying types (Could even be 8 extra WHM staves for example). The expected number of runs to see every wep at least once is 26. There hasn't been 26 resets since 2.2 and it took 2 weeks for a group to clear T9 anyways. The odds of not seeing a certain wep 14 times in a row is also irrelevant by the way since you have the same flat 1/9 shot every week.

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You seem to like seeing yourself type ;)

My post was never intended to "prove anything", though it does show how poor the current RNG dependant system currently is.

T9 is the hardest turn of 2nd coil, as such gives the best rewards, yet those capable of clearing it early on may never see their weapon before it's redundant, due to the weekly lockouts.

Pure RNG + Lockouts is a poor and dated system, weapon token drop for T9 would have been far more suitable and please more people.

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Originally Posted by Zeille

"RNG is RNG" - as quoted by all those with stockholm syndrome

Square Enix RNG is not RNG.

Maybe once their programmers figure out how to put actual RNG into this game, you can claim that. Or I dunno, maybe you like seeing "You obtain nothing." 3 times in a row on a 97% chance to succeed or having 8/10 desynths @ 70% blow up. Defending this kind of stuff is getting old.

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People complaining about statistically possible things happening to them is getting old. When there are over a million people doing something 1000 people are likely to see 1/1000 chance events occur. You are not special.

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Originally Posted by Ultimatecalibur

You are not special.

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People constantly using the "you are not special" as a dig is getting the most old.

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Originally Posted by Ultimatecalibur

People complaining about statistically possible things happening to them is getting old. When there are over a million people doing something 1000 people are likely to see 1/1000 chance events occur. You are not special.

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Millions of people doing second coil, everyone know it.

I remember him saying in a live letter before the game was released that they would have a token system but never saw it guess that went out the window just like our "cheaper personal housing"

high alagan gloves of aiming whats that no idea never dropped from t7 in all the runs we have done

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Originally Posted by Artiste

Millions of people doing second coil, everyone know it.

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It was a hyperbolic, not literal, example and pointed at her complaints about crafting and desynthesis.

A few weeks ago in a thread similar to this one, I calculated out the likelihood of not getting 4 of the 9 weapons in 14 completions and getting 5 of the same weapon in 14 completions. ~12 in 1000 groups and ~5 in 1000 groups are accepted differently than 1.17% and .54% by most people even though they are the same number expressed differently.

1.17% or 0.54% isn't that low.

Do you know that, with my team, we got 4 staff in row, if I calculate, the % was something like 0.015%, that's kinda low.
But 0.54% is 1/200, and 200 with the number of players, it's not something hard to get.

Mine is 1/6500, that's kinda low, specially for T9.
But it's still not low enough to not be impossible.

Did someone got same item 5 time in row ? i wonder, must be really realy unlucky. (chance for this are like 1/58 000)

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Originally Posted by Madoka

A token system would work very easily.

Clear Turn 6 and get a drop? No token
Clear turn 6 and get no drop? token given upon exit
Take 4-8 turn 6 tokens or whatever seems applicable to trade for one piece of Turn 6 gear. If you cleared it for 2 months without a single drop you've by all rights earned at least one piece of something you want from it. If you get the drop you wanted sooner, cool you can buy something for an alt job to help your group or a piece of gear to vanity.

Just make each turn have its own token that only buys things dropped from that turn. Put the npc in the intermission map we get dumped into between turns or something. Ancient Allagan Vending machine

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I like this idea. But I don't think SE would do it because you'd get ilevel capped after 2-3 months rather than 5-6. It might actually allow you to gear more than one job and SE doesn't want that.