Gathering and probability....

What I got from this thread is that people love fake statistics and not a single one of the complaners posted actuall statistical evidence. I did enjoy the statistical anecdode that this post started on though...very amusing. A statistical class is probably something you need to take if your having a hard time with the RNG.

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Originally Posted by Pandemonium

Probability is not an exact science... just sayin'

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well its math wich is a language, its still funny all these people that took one course on probability and assume they are dealing with a fair coin toss here

The rng is used everywhere in combat, if the rng didn't work, then combat wouldn't work

Kinda mad at people going "99% does not = 100%", "you are lying about how many times you missed" or "learn math."

I am sure everyone here know exactly how odds work and if you do gather, craft, or meld items you can CLEARLY see they are NOT RIGHT. Probabilities blah blah. Well what's the probability of all of us having a bad probability on a 99% probability? Haha. :)

Also, yes, it DOES sometimes work in your favor too.

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Originally Posted by Kat_Manx

Kinda mad at people going "99% does not = 100%", "you are lying about how many times you missed" or "learn math."

I am sure everyone here know exactly how odds work and if you do gather, craft, or meld items you can CLEARLY see they are NOT RIGHT. Probabilities blah blah. Well what's the probability of all of us having a bad probability on a 99% probability? Haha. :)

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they are trying to apply independant event analysis to something that isnt

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Originally Posted by Alzelia

Everyone who thinks the probabilities are off are f**king idiots. Google "the gamblers fallacy" and learn some statistics.

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Ummm... No. The probability is off. I'm sorry, but if I have a success of 93% and I miss 3-4 times in a row, something is definitely wrong there. Us, as players, are not idiots for thinking that. We're the victims here.

I honestly don't know how you can be okay with something like that. It reminds me of some Super Robot Wars games (a tactical RPG) where the enemy will have a success rate of like 7% for hitting your unit while you have 97% and you miss while they hit you. It's bullshit, lol.

Yes, I understand there's a 3% chance of failure, but come on... Do they really need to make it so obvious they're jerking you off?

1st) RNG's aren't perfectly random.

2nd) Statistics are correct in the long run. Don't bring in your anecdotal evidence. Don't make claims unless you have a statistically significant sample size.

Edit:

People like this make my head hurt:

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Originally Posted by TetsuyaHikari

Ummm... No. The probability is off. I'm sorry, but if I have a success of 93% and I miss 3-4 times in a row, something is definitely wrong there.

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IF I HAVE A 7% CHANCE TO MISS... I CAN NEVER MISS!!!....

http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/...1253705267.jpg

The probability does, in fact, work properly in this game (I always get 90-92 items with 91% odds when mining 100 times). You notice misses more because every item matters.

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Originally Posted by Greg

The probability does, in fact, work properly in this game (I always get 90-92 items with 91% odds when mining 100 times). You notice misses more because every item matters.

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Exactly... This is the same thing when a poker player tells me how many "Bad beats" they got... It's because people tend to focus on the negative things. They make them seem like the occur way more often than they actually do.

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Originally Posted by Hobo

Exactly... This is the same thing when a poker player tells me how many "Bad beats" they got... It's because people tend to focus on the negative things. They make them seem like the occur way more often than they actually do.

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Human memory has a negativity bias. You'll remember the 3 times in a row you fail at 90%, and forget the 3 times in a row you succeed at 10%. Also people who are like "I failed 3 or 4 times at 93%" are basing their claims off sample sizes of 3 or 4, when in reality, a sample size of hundreds, preferably thousands are needed for statistically significant results.

Edit: the odds that you will fail 3 times at 93%: 1/2,915
Odds you will fail 4 times: 1/41,649
The chance that you would bitch about it: 100%

The fact that you can't remember whether it is 3 or 4 times clearly shows that you're not collecting any valuable evidence. In FFXIV, there are millions and millions of gathering and melding, and crafting events done, so random occurances like this SHOULD occur. The more times the rng is used, the more chances extremely unlikely events have to occur. Out of a million tries, you would expect an event with a 1 in a thousand probability to occur a thousand times.

A copy paste I have from WoW forum for these threads.

"The biggest mistake they ever made was putting the hit %'s for everyone to see. I've seen so many stupid opinions on abilities chance to hit based on "hunches", imagination and bitterness that i can't really be bothered to argue against these people anymore. No interest in facts, no interest in burden of proof. Just an empty discussion that'll lead nowhere. "

Honestly, anyone who blindly believes that odds in a computer game are fair and not rigged are cra-zay.

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Originally Posted by Hobo

Oh trust me I took the full time reading your nonsensical post. You're just completely illogical. You're the same type of person who walks up to a roulette table in Vegas and sees that the last 15 numbers have been black and thinks it's GOING TO BE RED. EACH roll is an independent event. Failing your first attempt doesn't change the odds for your second roll.... AS THEY ARE INDEPENDENT EVENTS. Please go and educate yourself in statistics because spewing your anecdotal evidence on how RNG is broken.

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Honestly, there's a nontrivial chance that the table is somehow biased toward black, so you really should bet on black. If the table wasn't biased toward black then it is just as likely to be red or black, so you're not losing anything. If people are really as paranoid as they claim, they should suspect the game is rigged and just stop and cut their losses instead of keep going.

You know... in my first post I DID say roll the die several hundred times.

I understand the concept of sample sizes, and that over larger amounts of time, the gathering rate should level out to near what the advertised percentage is. The fact remains that it won't.

I am just pointing out that the game isn't rolling a hundred sided die to decide, it's rolling a ten sided one. It doesn't take a very large sample size to figure it out.