90% sucess rate and still missing

There is no RNG dedicated to your rolls. There isn't even a dedicated crafting RNG or gathering RNG or whatever. Let's say an alleged RNG simply generates the sequence '89X9 91' forever. Therefore the first 9 rolls are guaranteed to succeed with 90% chance to succeed and the last roll is guaranteed to fail with 90% odds. There's nothing random about this sequence, though it satisfies succeeding 9 out of 10 times with 90% odds.

Now say you're trying to take advantage of this. You can't, because a guy shooting an arrow at a mob will randomly use up one of these numbers, so is the other guy getting hit by a sheep elsewhere, and in fact virtually every action in the game uses up a RNG, so despite you know the exact sequence of numbers generated, it is never possible for any one player to observe any pattern even if there is supposed to be one.

I missed HQ on a 98% chance earlier today. Just glad it wasn't anything I cared about.
That is some messed up RNG.

The numbers are definitely misleading as how we're used to expect % to work. If the weather man says there's 90% chance that it will rain and it didn't for 12 days straight, with the same report, then it'd be safe to say there's something wrong with his system. Though this isn't how RNG works it's what people are used to when seeing %.

Whether it's the randomization ability of the game or something to do with how the skills actually calculate chance, something is definitely not right. I have been crafting a ton and the improbability of me failing the amount I have at 80% - 90% is astronomical. The moment I lose steady hands, my ability that grants me an 80% chance to increase quality fails constantly. No, not 1 out of every 5, like 3 or 4 out of every 5 on a CONSTANT basis. This starts happening more at higher levels of crafting. There is either something wrong with the randomizer or it is done on purpose and they just aren't giving you all the details on how it is calculated.

As I said, there's many factors that govern the actual % success rate, if you use hasty touch (no steady hand 1 or 2) on a low level item and a high level item, you'll see it succeed far more on the low level item despite it being a blanket "50%" success chance. They need to update the tooltip to show the true % with each step.

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Originally Posted by Astarica

Um, failing 12 in a row has exactly one ordering (12 in a row). The chance of this event happening is a trillion in 1. To observe such an event means either you're extremely (un)lucky or there's something wrong with the system, with the latter being the far more plausible explanation given the extreme odds involved. It's likely this event never occured in the history of FF14 thus far, and while that's not proof it cannot happen, one should be extremely suspicious if it did.

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And yet, even in your other posts you discuss that the sequence of the randomly generated values are not limited to a single character or event. So is this really 12 fails in a row? If the RNG is a shared resource then no it isn't, and it even approaches truly random when you have other unpredictable entities accessing that resource. Unless someone comes in with a statistically significant sample, then there's no reason to even consider it.

If the RNG is "shared" then it's literally the worst RNG system ever designed by mankind, and I applaud Square Enix for their awful, unintuitive design that only true morons could have come up with.

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Originally Posted by Tarrick

And yet, even in your other posts you discuss that the sequence of the randomly generated values are not limited to a single character or event. So is this really 12 fails in a row? If the RNG is a shared resource then no it isn't, and it even approaches truly random when you have other unpredictable entities accessing that resource. Unless someone comes in with a statistically significant sample, then there's no reason to even consider it.

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To this end, I will record two sample sizes of 100 gathers each, one with a stated success rate of 83% success and one with a stated 81% success rate. I'll record only the nodes with + gathering yield, no bonus or + gathering attempts, but, before I do so, I believe that the stated percentages are pretty reasonable estimates...

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Originally Posted by Xbob42

As I said, there's many factors that govern the actual % success rate, if you use hasty touch (no steady hand 1 or 2) on a low level item and a high level item, you'll see it succeed far more on the low level item despite it being a blanket "50%" success chance. They need to update the tooltip to show the true % with each step.

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I've noticed this.

I've been trying to get my DoHs to 50 and while leveling the crafts are becoming easier as in "RNG gods being good with me". In theory leveling up you should only see an increase of how much progress (Crafting) and quality (Control) you get per action and not an increase of success chance while doing items - but I've experienced less failed Hasty Hands as I level up my classes.

It's just weird.

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Originally Posted by emblasochist

To this end, I will record two sample sizes of 100 gathers each, one with a stated success rate of 83% success and one with a stated 81% success rate. I'll record only the nodes with + gathering yield, no bonus or + gathering attempts, but, before I do so, I believe that the stated percentages are pretty reasonable estimates...

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I work with random numbers all the time. I have to read reports on random numbers and determine if they follow given percentages "correctly" or not. That being said, 100 samples is not even close to being a significant sample size. At an 83% success rate, I would not be surprised at all if you get 65 successes or 95 successes. If you want to compare 81% to 83% for accuracy, then I'd say that you would need over ten thousand samples (each), and that's still on the low side. I'm completely serious. And no, I don't expect anyone to do this.

The deviation is greater than you think, and yes, it annoys me too.

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Originally Posted by Douten

The numbers are definitely misleading as how we're used to expect % to work. If the weather man says there's 90% chance that it will rain and it didn't for 12 days straight, with the same report, then it'd be safe to say there's something wrong with his system. Though this isn't how RNG works it's what people are used to when seeing %.

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This has nothing to do with the thread but I talked at length one day with one of our local network weatherman and he stated that in fact when they say there is , for example, a 30% chance for rain they mean that 30% of the viewing area has a 100% chance of measurable precipitation. So in essence 12 days without any rain on your particular area with a 90% chance could still be considered right.

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Originally Posted by O-Deka-K

I work with random numbers all the time. I have to read reports on random numbers and determine if they follow given percentages "correctly" or not. That being said, 100 samples is not even close to being a significant sample size. At an 83% success rate, I would not be surprised at all if you get 65 successes or 95 successes. If you want to compare 81% to 83% for accuracy, then I'd say that you would need over ten thousand samples (each), and that's still on the low side. I'm completely serious. And no, I don't expect anyone to do this.

The deviation is greater than you think, and yes, it annoys me too.

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You don't expect people to do this? You're new to MMOs, aren't you? Someone will do this for FUN.

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Originally Posted by Kaizlu

I've noticed this.

I've been trying to get my DoHs to 50 and while leveling the crafts are becoming easier as in "RNG gods being good with me". In theory leveling up you should only see an increase of how much progress (Crafting) and quality (Control) you get per action and not an increase of success chance while doing items - but I've experienced less failed Hasty Hands as I level up my classes.

It's just weird.

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What I've experienced from leveling all crafts to 50 is that the more crafts I have at 50, the less I care whether my 80% hasty touch failed or not, because I have enough ways to recover anyway.

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Originally Posted by Tarrick

And yet, even in your other posts you discuss that the sequence of the randomly generated values are not limited to a single character or event. So is this really 12 fails in a row? If the RNG is a shared resource then no it isn't, and it even approaches truly random when you have other unpredictable entities accessing that resource. Unless someone comes in with a statistically significant sample, then there's no reason to even consider it.

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The existence of other unlikely event doesn't affect any particular event you're trying to observe. Yes the RNG of FF14 most likely handed out an event with odds of 1 trillion to 1 at some point, but the event we're trying to observe (say, crafting) most certainly didn't happen a trillion times, so we should be skeptical if such an event happened. The observance of a 1 trillion to 1 event itself is statistically significant, which is why claims to observe such an event are almost always false.

There's two concepts people confuse. Variance of any event can be rather large and require more sample size, but observerance of extremely unlikely event itself is significant. 1000 in 1 is something you may run into a month. 1 million to 1 is something that has to happen to someone. But 1 billion to 1 or worse odds? If they happened, it's almost certain proof the game's underlying integrity is in question. Now, usually you find out these alleged events are exaggerated, but if you have proof such an event actually happened, the observerance of such an event alone is almost enough proof by itself. If you've a log of 12 consecutive fails at 90% success rate, send it to Square. They'll be very interested in how this is possible.

I used to get frustrated missing 90% so frequently, even in crafting.

I don't really think it's 90% per swing. I think MMO mechanics are far more advanced than they tell you. Yes 90% "typically".... how many times have you had 3 HQ hits at 15% in a row for example.... the pendulum seems to swing in both directions good and bad. I've had X 90% chances fail and get frustrated and then just as I'm about to do something else, the HQ hits will repeat at very LOW odds. Just something to think about.

What if the engine keeps a 90% "Average" and a 15% "Average" HQ over your session etc....

Total speculation but for how much 90% seems to fail in a row or 4 of 5 swings, 5 in a row, 2 out of 4 ..... etc... good odds that they don't just calc 90% per swing or try in crafting.