Island Sanctuary supply dramatically shifting in the background

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Originally Posted by Rowde

So the big question then is what does the Demand Shift field actually tell us?
Since it doesn't seem to actually have any bearing on Predicted Demand my current working theory is it is telling us 'How many of an item we can craft before the current Supply of that item changes in the current week'

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From what I can gather from other posts and guides, it only tells us how much the item has shifted in the past day, which means it's just telling us how it moved compared to yesterday. Not very helpful in that regard lol, as it's just telling us what we already know, especially because 2 data points =/= a trend (as my statistics professor likes to say, and is clearly evident from the behavior of the items today where they shot in the opposite direction). I think it's probably just that the demand shift is based on what other people are crafting, but we have no UI telling us any of that so it's only a guess.

The supply system is a bit of a big lie. Items are assigned a fixed pattern at the beginning of the week. There are 12 specific patterns and 4-5 items are always following a pattern for this week. In short, any given item will always go low (some only to insufficient and some to nonexistent) on an item-specific day and return back to sufficient after for the rest of the week. The only thing that can affect the supply besides this fixed pattern is your own sales. A specifc amount of items sold (currently believed to be 8) adds a point of supply. These points do not decay and are simply wiped out at the end of the week where the system resets for a new cycle.

This is the whole magic behind the system. Simply 12 predetermined patterns assigned randomly.

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Originally Posted by Rowde

Supply changes independently on each character during the week based on what they craft during the week so by the end of the week they can each have different Supply stats for items

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So far I'm not seeing this even though I've been having my 4 characters work on different items. Comparing the chart day to day on them ends up showing the same supply regardless what is made or not made.

Just like the OP, I've watched items go from Insufficient or Sufficient to Surplus without crafting the item at all during the week. The Island Garnet Rapier started at Insufficient on Tuesday but is now at Surplus even though I haven't made any (was saving for the end of the week when I expected to see Insufficient drop to Non-existent).

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Originally Posted by RicaRuin

I mean, that's Market with Supply and Demand - people saw that those were in high demand, so everyone produced them and boom, supply far over demand, so they plummeted.

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According to one of the infographics from the first half of the 6.2 Live Letter, game play is not affected by other players' actions.

That leaves the question of whether the infographic was misleading with the workshop economy not considered to be game play (which would be a big W T F moment) or there's a factor running in the background that randomly alters supply/demand information for the current cycle/season.

What would be interesting would be to see many players share screenshots of their supply/demand information taken at approximately the same time to look for variances. Could it be I'm not seeing any differences between the charts for my characters because they're all on the same service account and any RNG seeds for randomization are based on account information?

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Originally Posted by Azuri

The supply system is a bit of a big lie. Items are assigned a fixed pattern at the beginning of the week. There are 12 specific patterns and 4-5 items are always following a pattern for this week. In short, any given item will always go low (some only to insufficient and some to nonexistent) on an item-specific day and return back to sufficient after for the rest of the week. The only thing that can affect the supply besides this fixed pattern is your own sales. A specifc amount of items sold (currently believed to be 8) adds a point of supply. These points do not decay and are simply wiped out at the end of the week where the system resets for a new cycle.

This is the whole magic behind the system. Simply 12 predetermined patterns assigned randomly.

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Where is this information coming from?

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Originally Posted by Azuri

The supply system is a bit of a big lie. Items are assigned a fixed pattern at the beginning of the week. There are 12 specific patterns and 4-5 items are always following a pattern for this week. In short, any given item will always go low (some only to insufficient and some to nonexistent) on an item-specific day and return back to sufficient after for the rest of the week. The only thing that can affect the supply besides this fixed pattern is your own sales. A specifc amount of items sold (currently believed to be 8) adds a point of supply. These points do not decay and are simply wiped out at the end of the week where the system resets for a new cycle.

This is the whole magic behind the system. Simply 12 predetermined patterns assigned randomly.

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That would really suck if this is the case because we can't do any sort of planning ahead and have to jump on the low supply items on their low supply days, instead of saving them for later days when we have higher Groove.

You're probably right, though. Yesterday was a rest day for me so today I was focusing on what were Nonexistent yesterday and they're all the way up to Sufficient today without my crafting anything. So I've seen the same sort of shift the others are seeing and it's been frustrating.

I had that problem again with today's rope, but fixed after 1 hour and it's back to Sufficient.

Definitely a visual bug.

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Originally Posted by Knot_D

I had that problem again with today's rope, but fixed after 1 hour and it's back to Sufficient.

Definitely a visual bug.

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If you had to wait an hour for it to change, it may not be a visual bug at all.

Out of curiosity, can you remember the last time you had made the rope? I'm wondering if there's some sort of real time updating on supply based on player activity in addition to whatever background RNG there is. The one thing I've not been doing is tracking supply/demand changes after completion of crafts. I've been assuming they only update at the daily reset time for the workshop.

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Originally Posted by RicaRuin

I mean, that's Market with Supply and Demand - people saw that those were in high demand, so everyone produced them and boom, supply far over demand, so they plummeted.

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As said by others, other players do not influence your market. But other than that this is still what happens. Each time you produce an item, you are increasing its supply. And with 3 workshops producing the same with efficiency bonusses, this adds up rapidly and can easily take an item to overflowing in a single day.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

If you had to wait an hour for it to change, it may not be a visual bug at all.

Out of curiosity, can you remember the last time you had made the rope? I'm wondering if there's some sort of real time updating on supply based on player activity in addition to whatever background RNG there is. The one thing I've not been doing is tracking supply/demand changes after completion of crafts. I've been assuming they only update at the daily reset time for the workshop.

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Nope, I didn't make any rope before because I only do Brush - Crook and Butter - Sheep Rug - Scale Fingers - Sheep Rug. Definitely the supply become wonky lately...

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

Where is this information coming from?

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Supply Pattern Calculator

Island Sanctuary Discord

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Originally Posted by Knot_D

Nope, I didn't make any rope before because I only do Brush - Crook and Butter - Sheep Rug - Scale Fingers - Sheep Rug. Definitely the supply become wonky lately...

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Then it's not a visual bug lol - it's an issue with the way the system has been built.