Melding success rate

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Originally Posted by WinterSkyblue

If your guest is correct, then it is no point to give us the success rate because we don't know the "hidden value".
It is same that someone tell you: You will be success in 12 x (unknow) %
Any different from not telling any rate? I don't want to thing that SE was paid to do meaningless things....

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Granted it would still be frustrating to not really know what your chances are... but, at least you will know 'you are doing the best you can do'.

If you only get the value to 75%, then you know you have room for improvement.
If you get it to 100%, then you know you've done your best and now it is in the hands of the twelve.

If we had someone who got the value to 100% and failed (more than 1, in case it really was 99.5%), then that would tell us more.

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Originally Posted by NotApplicable

If you're doing a double meld that has a, say, 20% chance of success, that means that all attempts everyone will make over the course of (in game) moon phases, days, months, and years will average out to be 20%. You may attempt 20 melds and succeed on all of them or none of them.

There is undeniable pretty damn good evidence that says the dates and moonphases have an effect on melding (and had an effect on HQing), so if you notice you fail ten times in a row, stop trying silly~

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I used to meld materia only in full moon or near full moon, with at least common support, full set r48 crafting gears, add r4 materia like Str / Dex depending on crafting job. I am all crafting r50 (use 1.5 year to rank up >_<), drink apple juice+1. My r48 crafting sets also meld 2 materia, at least +8 craftmanship / m.craft / control.

I have experience that before 1.21, moon phase have effect on HQ rate. Full moon is less likely to be HQ. But after 1.21, I will make HQ in full moon.
I am pretty sure full moon have higher crafting / melding success rate cause I personally tested it 100+ times. My crafting friends also give similar reply.
For date, I am not that sure, cause my friends also not sense much different. But I am thinking of the god of each month. FFXIV 1st development team said they intent to make god have different effect on different months. Although now they said they will not apply this, may be already some hidden setting on it?

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Originally Posted by Asiaine

Granted it would still be frustrating to not really know what your chances are... but, at least you will know 'you are doing the best you can do'.

If you only get the value to 75%, then you know you have room for improvement.
If you get it to 100%, then you know you've done your best and now it is in the hands of the twelve.

If we had someone who got the value to 100% and failed (more than 1, in case it really was 99.5%), then that would tell us more.

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Sorry I don't understand .......Anything I can do to increase the melding success rate? Once to meld the 2nd materia into a gear, highest success rate must less than 50% (if you meld r1 materia with lowest attribute into r50 gear, HQ will add a few %). No way to improve it (at least for what SE claim and we can see).

I think you are talking on HQ item?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by WinterSkyblue

Sorry I don't understand .......Anything I can do to increase the melding success rate? Once to meld the 2nd materia into a gear, highest success rate must less than 50% (if you meld r1 materia with lowest attribute into r50 gear, HQ will add a few %). No way to improve it (at least for what SE claim and we can see).

I think you are talking on HQ item?

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Hello,

I think this applies to both situations. I know with crafting it is feasible right now to get it to 100?
I know with melding it is perhaps not possible? But perhaps in time there will be something that does: +10% chance to double meld. Then another +5% chance to double meld. With enough of those we could get it to 100% and then tell.

Sorry, did not mean to imply it can be done now, just that, 'if it could somehow be done' then we might be able to tell ^^;;

Does anyone have any data for moon phases? Or has any been posted? With all the things missing at launch I would think it highly unlikely that such a subtle component as moon phase affecting synthesis made it into the game.

Here's some math for you guys....

With a 20% chance of success, what are the odds that you would fail 5 attempts in a row? 20? 100? 1000?

Let n = the number of attempts at forbidden melding
Let S = The probability of success for a single meld = .2
Let F = The probability of every attempt failing

F(n)=(1-S)^n
F(n)=(1-.2)^n
F(n)=.8^n
F(5)=.8^(5)= .32
F(20)=.8^(20)= .0115
F(100)=.8^(100)= 2.03 x 10^(-10)
F(1000)=.8^(1000)= 1.23 x 10^(-97)

So What does this mean?

There is a 32% that every attempt out of 5 attempts will fail. That is almost a one in three chance. Out of 20 attempts to meld, there is a 1% chance that ever single one of them will fail. You have a better chance of winning the lottery 4 times in a row than you do of failing 1000 attempts in a row though.

I hope this helps give people perspective.

Dem college statistics says nope.

luck = luck. people hit mega millions lottery all the time even though they have a greater chance of getting hit by lightning twice in a row.

You could compare melding to hqing in crafting. As a level 30 blacksmith during new moon I hq'd cobalt ingots (the 3x ingot synth) 5 times in a row. Now for a level 50 this might not be so impressive. But for a level 30? The recipe is 10 levels higher then me And I never had better then 30% chance to HQ. 3 of the synths had a less then 20% chance to hq, one had 11% and the other that i got to 30% i nailed the hq on double down. now the odds of that happening are very slim give the low percentage chance of hq. (Btw i failed to mention i was using all hq mats). the new moon was affecting my hq chance.

I think what happens with these "bonuses" is the you have x% chance to HQ (or in melding an x% chance to meld) this is visible. Now to determine % chance lets say we RNG 0-100. with a (for yucks sake) 20% chance to hq/meld you would need a 81-100. now lets say these "bonuses" are actually a post RNG modifier...for example full moon adds 10 to your RNG... so now even though you have 20% chance to succeed you actually have a 30% chance (hidden) so you roll say 79(fail by itself) then it adds 10 and checks for success... 79+10=89=success. if you rolled 39, then 39+10=49=fail.

I also believe there may be modifiers that would hurt as well. The different materia are colored differently this could have to do with elemental/astral/umbral alignment. extensive testing with melding in different weather conditions, moon phases (new vs. full) and tying in day/hour elements may all play a part in modifying your true chance at success.


this is of course all speculation but at least my theory on how hidden modifiers affect displayed % chance is very likely.

or just consider it a % and solely that, 20% is 20%
The HQ % is exactly what % you have to HQ, same as mend, the exact % you have to meld it.