90% success rate...

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Originally Posted by HEC

The "problem" here is that many people expect with 80% chance to succeed 4 out 5 attempts while it's actually let's at least 800 out of 1000 - the distribution of the RNG is over larger sample, not a signle or few isolated crafts / gathers.

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If it worked like that, I'd be fine with it. But 90% chances should not fail 5 times in a row, 80% chance I can see doing it, but not 90% and higher.

I know it feels worse than it is because we don't just synth one thing at a time, we sit there for an hour and create stuff so the % feels screwy. But it still feels wrong :(.

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Originally Posted by Fluttersnipe

Dang does that ever hurt... I NQ'd an item I had a 90% to HQ, and I face palmed, no idea what I would have done on a 98% chance and lost... Probably would have involved the KB and a wall...

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I've failed at 98% 2 times, and 96% 5 times

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Originally Posted by Fluttersnipe

If it worked like that, I'd be fine with it. But 90% chances should not fail 5 times in a row, 80% chance I can see doing it, but not 90% and higher.

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It doesn't matter how high the chances are; it could be 99.99999% for all RNG cares. The fact is that streaks of bad luck can happen and only evens out after a long time. See: Law of Large Numbers.

It's still fun to complain about RNG though, especially when P(Fail | 98%) is well above 10%.

Yeah - RNG is biatch - I was doing a (forbiden) meld for myself with 14% chance - failed 26 times in a row (so less than 4%)! Next day - someone requested meld - 8% chance - done on first attemp ...

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Originally Posted by Starplayer

I've failed at 98% 2 times, and 96% 5 times

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I failed 99% twice in a row. I slapped myself silly.

However some days, I get HQ with just 1% chance =d.

I craft a fair amount of Vanya, never once had a problem always 100%.

Last night had an order for 3 items for guy. Sadly not a lot of profit a lot of risk. For the first time ever I had such a bad RNG that I ended up at 92% and damn I was sweating bullets.....but luckily...HQ.

I was very nervous, had I not HQ'd that, there goes all my profit.

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Originally Posted by Githiun

I craft a fair amount of Vanya, never once had a problem always 100%.

Last night had an order for 3 items for guy. Sadly not a lot of profit a lot of risk. For the first time ever I had such a bad RNG that I ended up at 92% and damn I was sweating bullets.....but luckily...HQ.

I was very nervous, had I not HQ'd that, there goes all my profit.

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I would sweat too~ after I fainted of course.

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Originally Posted by HEC

The "problem" here is that many people expect with 80% chance to succeed 4 out 5 attempts while it's actually let's at least 800 out of 1000 - the distribution of the RNG is over larger sample, not a signle or few isolated crafts / gathers.

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I don't think that's quite it. It's more like; I have a 99% chance to succeed and I fail 5 out of 25 times. That would be fine if I attempted 500 times and never failed again, but that's not what happens - not even close...I continue to fail about 5 out of 25 times. Pay attention to how often you fail when the chances are very high, and you'll see that the % clearly doesn't mean what it should.


1% also does not seem to mean 1%.


Last but not least - who ever decided that RNG was a good concept at all? I'd much prefer something be more difficult, require extra time, or extra steps than be subject to RNG. In some ways Tomes are a replacement for rng of dungeon drops - those kind of systems are a welcome improvement over rng imo - not a perfect comparison, but hopefully you can follow my thought process?

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Originally Posted by Simaril

I don't think that's quite it. It's more like; I have a 99% chance to succeed and I fail 5 out of 25 times. That would be fine if I attempted 500 times and never failed again, but that's not what happens - not even close...I continue to fail about 5 out of 25 times.

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Well - than maybe you simply "disregard" the opposite situations where, despite much lower chances you DO succeed? I've done some long term loging jsut out of the curiosity and by my own observation it does even out over the time. People tend to notice / remember more the "negative" things rather than possitive ones ... And I do indeed pay the attention to how many time I fail with high chances together with how many I succeed with low ;)

And - personally - I do like the RNG concept (despite being bitten by it numerous times, mainly with forbiden melds).

Most of the time when I can get HQ off 1% while mining... it gave me twice in a row... yeah, something is fishy with the RNG in this game.