Final fantasy 14 broke a record for a japan mmo. Might effect ffxi. Player base?.

[Demon6324236]

I am only speaking from experience.
Let me number-ify it for easy comparison.
Say I have 10 friends who left for the betas. Of those 10, 7 returned and 3 stopped XI in favor of XIV.
That is what I am talking about.
From my experience, the majority of those who will leave for XIV will return to XI.
XIV will not kill XI.

How many of the 7 who returned have no plans at all to go play XIV? That's the real question.

If I play a good beta it doesn't mean I am going to quit my current game, I will wait for the new game to come out, make sure its still good, then quit it.

[nyheen]

didn this happen back then? when 14 was coming out everyone was like "ya it gonna own etc!" but failed, now they remake it again for round2!. if it good to you then go for it. getting sick of people trying to get everyone to quit to join 14.
like dude said Any 'hot' MMO might affect FFXI playerbase or older MMOs. but so far XI, WoW, i think EQ still going, and few others been doing fine. newer games does not always = killing older games.

[Spectreman]

I've seen people say the same crap with Guild Wars2, FF14, Rift, DCUO, Age of Conan, Dungeons and Dragons (both of them), SWTOR, LOTRO, Warhammer... they all became F2P to collect pennies before shutting down because their subscription method failed.

The new thing is FF14 and Elder Scrolls Online... lololol just waiting on fresh tears of frustration.


The only MMORPG that still survived the Wow factor were FFXI and EVE Online because they are the most deep games in the genre. FF14 is just the 200th wow clone and like its brothers it will die to F2P in months.

Its not that all those games were bad, neither FF14 is but they are just more of the same shallow gaming experience that doesn't keep a MMORPG through subscriptions. I think FF14 might even succeed as F2P model selling virtual pets, chocobos, dresses, haircuts and potions of increased exp.

[OmnysValefor]

10 is an absurdly small number to base things off of, but sure, let's go with that.

10 friends left for XIV, and 7 came back. Your friend-pool took a 30% hit. A 30% hit to subscriptions would further cripple this game.

[FaeQueenCory]

Dear God. It was just an arbitrary numerical representation with small numbers to indicate a rough estimate of what I have seen. (a fractal of 10 is a lot easier to talk about than the stratification between 4/17 and 13/17. Because we think in base-10.)

How many of the 7 who returned have no plans at all to go play XIV? That's the real question.

If I play a good beta it doesn't mean I am going to quit my current game, I will wait for the new game to come out, make sure its still good, then quit it.

For the sake of argument, using my arbitrary 10 as the base for the max, of the 7 returning, 3 plan to play both, 2 didn't care for it, and 2 prefer XI to it but consider it to have been very fun and a good game.

10 is an absurdly small number to base things off of, but sure, let's go with that.

10 friends left for XIV, and 7 came back. Your friend-pool took a 30% hit. A 30% hit to subscriptions would further cripple this game.

OMG. >< Does no one convert hard numbers to a simpler base???? Is that only a scientist thing?
Maybe. We scientists are notoriously lazy....

I chose to reduce my experience to a base-10-scale because the actual number is ugly to work with.
I am not saying that these 10 ppl I know are a good example.
I am saying that of all the people I know who did this... roughly 30% stopped playing XI. Which I am glad to see you at least picked up on that.
Even if you missed the whole "let's say" and other words that are used to indicate a reduction in numerical specifics.

From what I have experienced, 30% will be lost. And then of the 70% that remains, 21% of that will hold subscriptions to both. (that 21% is the 30% of the returning ppl, as illustrated by the 3-2-2 example of the base-10 simplification previously mentioned.)

The reason we scientists simplify numbers that are ugly to work with into simple things like this... is so that we can quickly discuss and illustrate the effects simply.

[OmnysValefor]

I know you were giving an example, I was only prefacing it with some text before someone said "3 out of 10 means nothing". I was only saying that while 3 out of 10 means nothing, even if those numbers are representative, and XI loses 30%~, that's a pretty harsh blow.

[FaeQueenCory]

I know you were giving an example, I was only prefacing it with some text before someone said "3 out of 10 means nothing". I was only saying that while 3 out of 10 means nothing, even if those numbers are representative, and XI loses 30%~, that's a pretty harsh blow.

It's no more so a "harsh blow" than 70% retention is a "critical success".
It is what it is.
There will be loss... but it's not going to be "game killing" or "end of the world making".

[OmnysValefor]

We all know, across all servers, a significant portion of those online are somebody's mules. It skews the numbers in a bad way, especially for low-pop servers.

70% retention is awful when what the game needs is more healthy active population, not less.

[Anjou]

Putting it into a bigger number 1,000 people leave, only 700 come back. 300 people stay at XIV, that's a big bit to both players and entrepreneur, as that is large drop in profit from XI, and eventually when more outside people come in, that 70% gets smaller...and smaller...and smaller until you got only 20~30% left of your entire population left because of 'omg no one is here' merging servers won't do any good, that's only a stop-gap measure to make it look like the servers are active.

[Kriegsgott]

I've seen people say the same crap with Guild Wars2, FF14, Rift, DCUO, Age of Conan, Dungeons and Dragons (both of them), SWTOR, LOTRO, Warhammer... they all became F2P to collect pennies before shutting down because their subscription method failed.

add Starwars the just had to add few servers because this game was running crazy and droped fast down!
Aion had a long breath but had to die too if i'm not wrong just wanted to fill your list