Screwed again: Proposed THF job adjustments.

[Insaniac]

My goal would be to prove within a reasonable margin of error that the TH3 trait is or isn't a reroll. Since it would be a 10% difference in drop rates what kind of sample size would I need for a 4% margin of error? Please forgive my math deficiency.

edit: Considering the alternative would be that TH3 is just TH+1 we better make that a 3% margin of error.

[Laphine]

I also don't know much on statistcs. Maybe i'm just saying shit here (so correct me, please~), but i think that if you parsed a 70% drop rate, and this sample had a 10% margin of error, we could very well conclude that TH3 is also a reroll. This is because the 11k parse is very solid. We would need lower margins of error if we didn't know TH2 so well.

[Insaniac]

I'm just looking for the absolute minimum amount of effort to come up with a solid result. =P

[Nebo]

I'm just looking for the absolute minimum amount of effort to come up with a solid result. =P

That would be for SE to just *gasp* tell us what it does.

I don't know why they think it is fun that we still don't know after all these years.

This is not fun.

[Byrth]

Approximately 90~100 kills should let you see the difference.

[Insaniac]

Approximately 90~100 kills should let you see the difference.

Pfffft. Consider it done. I'll blast these down in the next couple days.

[Byrth]

Heh, okay! Remember to note which ones ding up to TH level 4!

Also, that was an approximation, the formula you're using is:

95% Confidence interval width = 1.96*SQRT(p*(1-p)/N)
Where p = Number of Feathers or Beaks / Number of Kills
and N = Number of Kills

So if you get 70/100 feathers, that's 1.96*SQRT(.7*.3/100) = +/-.09 (9%) for your 95% confidence interval width

[Laphine]

It's accepted that SAWS also triggers proc, right? Like, procs but doesn't show on log. Better not use stacked ws just to be safe as well.

I would help you to speed things up but i've been very busy these days :\

[noodles355]

non-stacked WS can proc too. You'd be best not WSing at all.

[Insaniac]

non-stacked WS can proc too. You'd be best not WSing at all.

Yeah that's not happening. I'll just kill a few hundred to offset the possible hidden TH procs.