Killing Shadowbringers S-ranks is not triggering Forgiven Gossip event on Chaos DC

[Rumiko]

Date & Time of Issue: Start time potentially either:
- Sometime after 15 July 3PM UTC
- Relevant to ISP Maintenance 18 July 3PM to 5PM UTC

Frequency: Always, ongoing

World: Chaos Datacenter(Cerberus, Louisoix, Moogle, Omega, Ragnarok and Spriggan)

Monster Name: Forgiven Gossip and Shadowbringers S-ranks in image below
In-Game Time: Image below of said S-ranks and their approximate killtimes
Area and Coordinates: Image below(see Location on the right side), refer to this for what zone the S-ranks belong to:
Mark name - Area:
Tarchia - Amh Araeng
Gunitt - The Tempest
Ixtab - The Rak'tika Greatwood
Aglaope - Il Mheg
Forgiven Pedantry - Kholusia
Tyger - Lakeland

Steps:
I consider the move of the previous post (https://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/threads/422245) to Insufficient Information as an invitation to elaborate, and hope the following info assists you in verifying.

Please keep in mind that this is just about as much info we can give as players and that this is not the info of just one player, but in fact the entire spawning community(that also spawned and marked times of death) together.

Issue: The Forgiven Gossip event that spawns Forgiven Rebellion has not triggered on Chaos for over 13 days. This is referred to when saying 'Minions' in this post. Last spawn was reported July 15. At time of writing the number of S-ranks killed since last spawn is 103. What follows is a log of S-ranks that includes all the info on S-ranks spawned on Chaos servers in the timeframe of July 15 to 28 by Server Time/UTC.

Unique ID - World - Mark Name - Time of Death(UTC) - Time since last S-rank in that zone - Location

Open: https://i.imgur.com/SVDlzJk.png
ISP Maintenance for EU has been highlighted as this drought is not seen on other datacenters in the time period. Could it be part of what broke Chaos?

When is it no longer about bad luck?

After killing Shadowbringers S-ranks, this event has a chance to trigger. Previous community data, based on 1675 S-rank kills, yielded 167 events which would be consistent with a 10% spawn rate. I am not saying the this is the official number, but please take it into consideration.

Chaos Datacenter has a very close-knit hunting community, and spawners work very hard to share and document spawns. No Shadowbringers S-ranks were missed in the time period.
I am not here to claim that every minion has been reported as there is no way to confirm similar to S-rank spawns and their windows.

In the two-week period of July 1 to July 14, 15 Minion spawns were reported and 105 Shadowbringers S-ranks were killed.
June 16 to June 30 had 8 Minion spawns and 88 S-rank kills.

The chance of no minions(90%) 80 times in a row (0.9^80) is 0.02184745%
The chance of no minions(90%) 90 times in a row (0.9^90) is 0.007617734%

What about the individual servers?
At 90 kills, the number per server should be around 15
The chance of no minions(90%) 15 times in a row (0.9^15) is around 20%
The chance of a 20% outcome 6 times in a row (0.2^6) is 0.0064%.

Your chance of winning Cactpot with 3 tickets is 3/10000 or 0.03%.

What if the chance is a lot lower? Let's go with 5%
The chance of no minions(95%) 80 times in a row (0.95^80) is 1.65%
The chance of no minions(95%) 90 times in a row (0.95^90) is just under 1%
The chance of no minions(95%) 100 times in a row (0.95^100) is just under 0.6%

... are you starting to see why we (the Chaos S-rank spawners) are concerned? Keep in mind the number now is over 100.

Thanks for reading.

[Rumiko]

<Reserving for updates>
2 August 12PM: Added fourteen S-ranks:
# 127 - # 140


31 July 6AM: Added nine S-ranks:
# 118 - # 126


30 July 11AM: Added seven S-ranks:
# 111 - # 117



29 July 11AM: Added five S-ranks:
# 106 - # 110



28 July 7PM: Added two S-ranks:
# 104

# 105