Oh man how I wish Mateus had a PvP community I could roll with. Unfortunately solo is my only option, and probably the only option for many other players.
This is absolutely alive and well. I sat and watched it happen over 800 Frontlines games playing for Flames, Adders, and Maelstrom, and the win rates proportionately went upward like clockwark. It's not coincidence - the sample size is enough here to draw some conclusions. You can look at the Frontlines standings too to see the numbers - it's not anecdotal or secret background data we can't see.
I'm sorry to tell you but it's a sad truth that simply changing GC can drastically change your Frontlines experience. Is it necessary? No, Flames will win a few, but 25% is way different than 60%. I mean, eventually the cycle will come into Flames favor, but who knows how long that'll be? It's been Maelstrom for a solid 2 months or more, that's long enough to defeat a PvP aspiring new player who doesn't know better.
Let me point you back to my thread:
http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...something-else
Freelancing was putting me on Flames, literally, with no exaggeration, 75% or more of the time. This is because Adders and Maelstrom are turning off freelancing in droves. My win rate on Flames was frustratingly low, and combined with how often I landed on Flames when freelancing, made for a miserable experience. Had I not already had headway into the achievement I wanted from when I used to play this game back in Slaughter days, I would probably would have given up and quit.
Putting my best self forward and really trying to get wins (because only wins count for some mounts/titles), and stretching nights way too far when I really should have stopped to sleep - trying to get at least one more win, and having crap like 6 wins out of 33 games over, is awfully defeating. This is the experience for a lot of new players and this was my freelancing experience. Except, perhaps, for new players that happen to play for Maelstrom over the last couple months and can figure out how to turn off freelance status (it's not intuitive).
If you're not a good player then swapping GC may help some, but all you really do is perpetuate the cycle and eventually you'll be losing again. So getting better at the game is the right answer. I don't want to tell new players they have to pick the right GC and turn off freelancing to land a respectable win rate to earn whatever they are after, but it's an unfortunate truth that picking the right GC helps a lot.