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  1. #1
    Player
    Geryth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    339
    Character
    Geryth Drayfore
    World
    Mateus
    Main Class
    Dragoon Lv 90

    Is this a statistical anomaly? Or something else?

    I've recently started playing this game again and I've been back a few weeks. One of the things I was after before I left was the ADS mount so I went back to the grind for 200 frontlines wins (91/200 as of now, a ways to go).

    After some learning curve I got the hang of the new mode and the new PvP skills and setup, and I was winning games 35-40% of the time for the first two weeks or so, the better side of normal given the RNG side I'm put on and the RNG spawn locations with the RNG ice spawns and the RNG teammates I get. Overall enjoying myself pretty well, and feeling okay about the general 33% chance to win. It is way better than when frontlines was restricted by grand company and I was either faced by long queues or being unable to win.

    After some fruitful games and a decent win% comes night before last where my winning came to a screeching halt. I won only 3 out of 17 games, and what felt like 90% or more of the time I was placed specifically on the Immortal Flames. Disgusting night, but figured nights like that might happen once in a rare while.

    Then comes last night, hoping for the better side of normal I experienced before. Same. Thing. Game after game I was placed on Immortal Flames, and game after game I was losing (won only 3 out of 16 games, so that's 6 wins out of 33 games over two nights). When I felt like this pattern was too much to ignore, I started recording my games (literally, I have full video recordings of each of these games). So here's what happened in my last 13 games, and it is exactly the same as my last 33 games:

    Game 1: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
    Game 2: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
    Game 3: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
    Game 4: Placed - TA; Winner - MS
    Game 5: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
    Game 6: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
    Game 7: Placed - TA; Winner - TA
    Game 8: Placed - IF; Winner - TA
    Game 9: Placed - TA; Winner - TA
    Game 10: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
    Game 11: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
    Game 12: Placed - IF; Winner - TA
    Game 13: Placed - IF; Winner - IF (miracle game and it was epicly close across all three sides)

    Aside from my very last game, that trend extended to the 20 games that preceded them where my 3 other wins came from TA or MS. And I was on IF in an overwhelming majority of those games as well.

    So I don't think this is "random" at all, and that there's part of the system here that I don't understand (and suffered the full disadvantages of for a very frustrating 33 games). So as far as I can tell, I can't find a way to queue into frontlines as a specific grand company - queuing through dungeon finder and queuing specifically for Shatter both will put me on random teams. Is there a way to queue for a specific GC? Was this the result of some PvP free company or linkshell queuing into Maelstrom and enjoying the spoils of cooperative play? How likely is it that a PvP team of a full 24 man raid came together on a single team? Or is this a case of one of the most improbable statistical anomalies ever witnessed?
    (0)

  2. #2
    Player
    Bigceto's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Posts
    15
    Character
    Ceto Lionheart
    World
    Odin
    Main Class
    Marauder Lv 60
    Switch to maelstrom dont queue freelance.
    (0)

  3. #3
    Player
    Geryth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    339
    Character
    Geryth Drayfore
    World
    Mateus
    Main Class
    Dragoon Lv 90
    Okay, I finally figured it out here. In the duty finder window there's a tiny little gear in the upper left hand corner to open settings. In those settings, I can toggle my freelancer status on and off.

    So is that my issue? Are that many people really toggling off freelancer status, which is putting me on flames so often?
    (0)

  4. #4
    Player
    Bigceto's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Posts
    15
    Character
    Ceto Lionheart
    World
    Odin
    Main Class
    Marauder Lv 60
    Flames seem to have a bigger bot population than other gc's.since mealstrom is winning most you're matches you want to change to that gc and uncheck freelance so it drops u into mael everytime.u can always go back to whichever gc u were on after u get the mount.unless it was changed ur previous wins will not count towards the 200 ads mount(red) but the blue ads will count.
    (0)

  5. #5
    Player
    Vandril's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Ul'dah
    Posts
    555
    Character
    Ter'vin Valash
    World
    Diabolos
    Main Class
    Ninja Lv 70
    @Bigceto - I can't imagine most bots wouldn't be queueing as Freelancer for the quicker queues.

    @Geryth - I'd call this just a streak of bad luck. Most people queue freelancer nowadays, so skill difference between GCs has been largely minimized. You can try changing your GC if you really think there's something going on, but any change you notice from it is likely to be placebo. My advice is to just keep on keeping on. We all have days like that once in a while.
    (1)
    Last edited by Vandril; 08-21-2017 at 04:45 AM. Reason: Expanded on a few points.

  6. #6
    Player
    Synestra's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    1,071
    Character
    Nel Synestra
    World
    Moogle
    Main Class
    Gladiator Lv 70
    Quote Originally Posted by Bigceto View Post
    Switch to maelstrom dont queue freelance.
    Yeah keep promoting it to the point freeloaders starts to flood mael and it wont take long until they are sitting in 10% victory rate after a week... it has happened before and it can still happen. Seeing mael is having 50-70% win rate in chaos at the moment it would be not surprise to see GC hoppers soon, if that happens i will most likely go to adders as they are good second atm and i still need 300 wins for that 1k achievement so i will probably do it at some point anyway.

    EDIT: Now that i checked all DC's it seems mael literally dominates in NA/EU servers but in JP servers GC's seems to be rather balanced when it comes to victory rates.
    (0)
    Last edited by Synestra; 08-21-2017 at 08:58 PM.

  7. #7
    Player
    Bigceto's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Posts
    15
    Character
    Ceto Lionheart
    World
    Odin
    Main Class
    Marauder Lv 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Synestra View Post
    Yeah keep promoting it to the point freeloaders starts to flood mael and it wont take long until they are sitting in 10% victory rate after a week...
    Im balancing pvp for SE since their not very good at it.
    (0)

  8. #8
    Player
    NorthernLadMSP's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Limsa Lominsa
    Posts
    3,470
    Character
    Adore Mi
    World
    Jenova
    Main Class
    Dancer Lv 90
    At least on Aether, half of the Flames are bots (no proof, just the feeling I get after watching them in action).

    Adders and Mael at least seem to be mostly comprised of actual people.

    Best example - I see this almost every fight. One random Flames just charges into our big group on mount. Like makes a bee line right into us as if they're autoprogrammed to head to our base. When attacked, they just keep moving on their mount like nothing is happening.
    (1)

  9. #9
    Player
    NorthernLadMSP's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Limsa Lominsa
    Posts
    3,470
    Character
    Adore Mi
    World
    Jenova
    Main Class
    Dancer Lv 90
    Another thing i see all the time on Flames - someone calls out big ice. The real players rush to the ice, the bots literally stand there doing nothing in a group and keep doing nothing until the ice is destroyed.
    (0)

  10. #10
    Player
    Synestra's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    1,071
    Character
    Nel Synestra
    World
    Moogle
    Main Class
    Gladiator Lv 70
    Quote Originally Posted by Bigceto View Post
    Im balancing pvp for SE since their not very good at it.
    Swapping freeloaders from one GC to another is not really a solution in my book, its just temp fix and one GC starts to dominate after a while. But in the end it does't really matter as i can change GC if i feel the need for that, never really cared fighting under certain banner only thing that mattered was the teammates.
    (1)

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