I've recently started playing this game again and I've been back a few weeks. One of the things I was after before I left was the ADS mount so I went back to the grind for 200 frontlines wins (91/200 as of now, a ways to go).
After some learning curve I got the hang of the new mode and the new PvP skills and setup, and I was winning games 35-40% of the time for the first two weeks or so, the better side of normal given the RNG side I'm put on and the RNG spawn locations with the RNG ice spawns and the RNG teammates I get. Overall enjoying myself pretty well, and feeling okay about the general 33% chance to win. It is way better than when frontlines was restricted by grand company and I was either faced by long queues or being unable to win.
After some fruitful games and a decent win% comes night before last where my winning came to a screeching halt. I won only 3 out of 17 games, and what felt like 90% or more of the time I was placed specifically on the Immortal Flames. Disgusting night, but figured nights like that might happen once in a rare while.
Then comes last night, hoping for the better side of normal I experienced before. Same. Thing. Game after game I was placed on Immortal Flames, and game after game I was losing (won only 3 out of 16 games, so that's 6 wins out of 33 games over two nights). When I felt like this pattern was too much to ignore, I started recording my games (literally, I have full video recordings of each of these games). So here's what happened in my last 13 games, and it is exactly the same as my last 33 games:
Game 1: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
Game 2: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
Game 3: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
Game 4: Placed - TA; Winner - MS
Game 5: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
Game 6: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
Game 7: Placed - TA; Winner - TA
Game 8: Placed - IF; Winner - TA
Game 9: Placed - TA; Winner - TA
Game 10: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
Game 11: Placed - IF; Winner - MS
Game 12: Placed - IF; Winner - TA
Game 13: Placed - IF; Winner - IF (miracle game and it was epicly close across all three sides)
Aside from my very last game, that trend extended to the 20 games that preceded them where my 3 other wins came from TA or MS. And I was on IF in an overwhelming majority of those games as well.
So I don't think this is "random" at all, and that there's part of the system here that I don't understand (and suffered the full disadvantages of for a very frustrating 33 games). So as far as I can tell, I can't find a way to queue into frontlines as a specific grand company - queuing through dungeon finder and queuing specifically for Shatter both will put me on random teams. Is there a way to queue for a specific GC? Was this the result of some PvP free company or linkshell queuing into Maelstrom and enjoying the spoils of cooperative play? How likely is it that a PvP team of a full 24 man raid came together on a single team? Or is this a case of one of the most improbable statistical anomalies ever witnessed?