What the hell is wrong with crafting ?

I'm trying to level up my Alchemist there and on level 38 i'm trying to craft some potions for leves.

I was so happy when i got 95% quality, but it DIDN'T craft the HQ item !
Next one, i get 5% quality, i get the HQ one....

I don't get it, what is wrong with the craft ?

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Originally Posted by LastDream

I'm trying to level up my Alchemist there and on level 38 i'm trying to craft some potions for leves.

I was so happy when i got 95% quality, but it DIDN'T craft the HQ item !
Next one, i get 5% quality, i get the HQ one....

I don't get it, what is wrong with the craft ?

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95% quality there is still 5% of it being NQ and 5% quality well I guess that 5% chance worked out for you. There is no problem working as intended.

I know, it's crazy. Someone call the president and alert him of the crisis on our hands, because apparently the laws of mathematics no longer work correctly. 95% is no longer 100% and 5% is no longer 0%!!

Still... i mostly get the HQ when i'm below the 50%, or the game is trolling me or 5% is huge in FFXIV... dunno.

If you're new to math, there are 2 things you must understand. Math has no certainty in reality and reality certainly is not math.

Murphy's law, it applies to probability more than anything :P

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Originally Posted by HoroBoro

If you're new to math, there are 2 things you must understand. Math has no certainty in reality and reality certainly is not math.

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Death is the only certainty. Well, that and the Yankees not making the playoffs...but I digress..

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Originally Posted by MeowyWowie

Someone call the president and alert him of the crisis on our hands

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LOL... that will surely get it handled properly.

Talking about RNG in this game... at the gathering point with 95% success rate, I failed 4 times in a row. Yeah, I know that there's 5% failure rate... but 5% failure rate 4 streak in a row? Instead of success rate of 95% 4 times in a row? /facepalm

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Originally Posted by Neri

Talking about RNG in this game... at the gathering point with 95% success rate, I failed 4 times in a row. Yeah, I know that there's 5% failure rate... but 5% failure rate 4 streak in a row? Instead of success rate of 95% 4 times in a row? /facepalm

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I think this game borrowed the rng code from Fire Emblem.

It's kinda like how you have a 90% chance of successfully doing a normal move to increase progress...and it fails 5 times in a row. I mean you would think this equates to 9/10 times the move works..but sometimes it does not feel that way.

i once got HQ from 1% quality craft

Pfftt... check out this thread

You will see complaints of people failing ridiculous synths.

Yeah yeah yeah... it's all 'possible' and we aren't complaining about that. It's the fact that it is not probable, but we seem to be seeing it quite often.

yea i was making a coeurl fur today to make some 2 star stuff for a fc. Get to 98% with 10 durability left "o i got this" normal coerul fur. me "-_-".

I've had a ton of fails at 90% so tables seem off to me but, ive never failed something really important yet so its fine.

It's gotten to the point for me that unless I get it to 100%, I assume it's NOT going to hq.

And on the flip side of that, I seem to get more hq results from 15-20% than I do from 85-95%.

Mind boggling.

Most of the time, I really, really hate RNG, but to be fair, RNG started it :p

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Originally Posted by DwarfStar

Death is the only certainty. Well, that and the Yankees not making the playoffs...but I digress..

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And taxes.. >.>;;

And its all a roll of the dice when it comes to HQ.. % chance is exactly that.

Why is it like this is the first game to ever include percentage probability?

Why doesn't anyone understand the difference between predicted probability and historical probability? What are they even teaching in schools these days?

The success and failure %s are way off for sure. I'm at the point where I'm going to begin taking manual data just to prove this.

I think good condition and excellent condition reduce the success chance by a lot. I also think the success chance is lower depending on the level of the item vs you. I don't think it's absolute.

I've noticed while mining that 90%+ fails at a consistently high rate.
The % rate given is not accurate.
I was told by my friends that this is Squeenix math and that anything less than 100% cannot be trusted.

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Originally Posted by Baratan

Why is it like this is the first game to ever include percentage probability?

Why doesn't anyone understand the difference between predicted probability and historical probability? What are they even teaching in schools these days?

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How to take standardized tests. >.>;

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Originally Posted by LastDream

I'm trying to level up my Alchemist there and on level 38 i'm trying to craft some potions for leves.

I was so happy when i got 95% quality, but it DIDN'T craft the HQ item !
Next one, i get 5% quality, i get the HQ one....

I don't get it, what is wrong with the craft ?

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It strikes me that you have no idea how percentages and random chances work.

The RNG gods hate me too.

Hey, you haven't missed 4 gathers in a row at 98% yet so feel lucky.

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Originally Posted by Neri

Talking about RNG in this game... at the gathering point with 95% success rate, I failed 4 times in a row. Yeah, I know that there's 5% failure rate... but 5% failure rate 4 streak in a row? Instead of success rate of 95% 4 times in a row? /facepalm

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A little bit of math indicates that chances of this happening in a specific row of four gathering is 1 in 160,000. Now, figure that you may do hundreds of gatherings in a day. And that there are thousands of people gathering. In other words, things like this are happening *every day* to somebody, somewhere.

The RNG is really bad in this game, I seem to get a series of bad or good luck (seen easiest when gathering). I failed a 5 in a row 99% success gather. Granted, that should happen every 1 in 10000000000 but it's still pretty outrageous when it happens to you.

I'm pretty sure everyone of you are exaggerating the truth.

Plenty of times, I have had 94% on a mine node, and failed all 4 times. Sure it pisses you off, but you are failing to incorporate the 150 other times when you have 94% and you hit all 4 times. Just because one single mine attempt goes wrong, 3 pages of QQ....

If you don't want to rely on the percentages, than get better at your craft/gather until that shit says 100%. I guarantee if there was some sort of counter to show y'all statistically how many times you hit and miss on a certain percentile, that it would be within 1 or 2% of what it says you are supposed to hit.

General rule: if it doesn't say 100%, chances are you can fail. Imagine that!

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Originally Posted by Karari

The RNG is really bad in this game, I seem to get a series of bad or good luck (seen easiest when gathering). I failed a 5 in a row 99% success gather. Granted, that should happen every 1 in 10000000000 but it's still pretty outrageous when it happens to you.

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How could it possibly be that "RNG is really bad in this game"??? That doesn't make any sense. It's random. You got unlucky. That doesn't reflect on the game in any way shape or form. It's not like the random number generate sits there and goes "Well we could put this 99 out there and he will get his HQ, but we think it's time to hate on the player a little bit. Lets throw that 2 out there instead." It doesn't work that way. It is completely random.

All of the people complaining about this need to stay away from Vegas.

"I doubled on an 11 and got a 3! That's not supposed to happen! I was supposed to get a face card, there's more of them than anything!"

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Originally Posted by Limecat

I think this game borrowed the rng code from Fire Emblem.

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Or the first iteration of Diablo 3's item stat generator

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Originally Posted by Tiggy

How could it possibly be that "RNG is really bad in this game"??? That doesn't make any sense. It's random. You got unlucky. That doesn't reflect on the game in any way shape or form. It's not like the random number generate sits there and goes "Well we could put this 99 out there and he will get his HQ, but we think it's time to hate on the player a little bit. Lets throw that 2 out there instead." It doesn't work that way. It is completely random.

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Luck doesn't exist.

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Originally Posted by LastDream

Still... i mostly get the HQ when i'm below the 50%, or the game is trolling me or 5% is huge in FFXIV... dunno.

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Trust us when we tell you that your horribly biased human tendency to overstate your wins and understate your losses is what bred this post.

The math is sound, learn to craft around it.

The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.

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Originally Posted by Neri

Talking about RNG in this game... at the gathering point with 95% success rate, I failed 4 times in a row. Yeah, I know that there's 5% failure rate... but 5% failure rate 4 streak in a row? Instead of success rate of 95% 4 times in a row? /facepalm

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The game doesn't have a memory. Each time you strike there is a 95% chance you will score and 5% you'll miss, the next strike, 95/5, the next, 95/5, so you could do 100 strikes and miss every one of them because it's not remembering that you missed 5 times out of the last 100 shots. It's rolling a big 100 sided dice every time.........

The thing is, you can't "Take data to prove it". That doesn't make sense because any data gather is after-the fact. A WoW developer once wrote a post on their forums about a player being called a cheater because he rolled 100 ten times in a row. The developers response was not only is that mathematically possible, but because of how many times people roll on their servers every given day, hundreds, thousands, millions of times. Not only is it mathematically possible, it's virtually guaranteed to happen from time to time. If it never happened, you'd know the RNg wasn't random enough.

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Originally Posted by Lelouch001

Luck doesn't exist.

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Yes, in fact, it does. Perception is reality. If I win the lottery 100 times in a row, I will feel lucky. Saying lucky doesn't exist is like saying happiness or sadness doesn't exist.

Replace Justice with Luck......

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Originally Posted by Death

Death: Humans need fantasy to *be* human. To be the place where the falling angel meets the rising ape.

Susan: With tooth fairies? Hogfathers?

Death: Yes. As practice, you have to start out learning to believe the little lies.

Susan: So we can believe the big ones?

Death: Yes. Justice, mercy, duty. That sort of thing.

Susan: They're not the same at all.

Death: You think so? Then take the universe and grind it down to the finest powder, and sieve it through the finest sieve, and then show me one atom of justice, one molecule of mercy. And yet, you try to act as if there is some ideal order in the world. As if there is some, some rightness in the universe, by which it may be judged.

Susan: But people have got to believe that, or what's the point?

Death:
You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?

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There is no such thing as luck, tis all a lie, Death said so.

Not sure if anyone explained it this way (too lazy to read thru) but there is a 95% CHANCE it will be HQ. With the 5% one, there was still a chance it would be HQ (although a small chance). The % isn't supposed to be a score where if you go past a certain point then it's quaranteed to be HQ---the only time it's guaranteed is when it's at 100%. Hope that clears things up :)

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Originally Posted by Limecat

I think this game borrowed the rng code from Fire Emblem.

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LOL. this is what i've been thinking as well.