Risk, Reward, Probability and Difficulty

Currently lots of people dislike the fact that there's an RNG element in drops. Many have reported that they done a specific fight (ifrit) many times and not gotten any reward.

So why not implement a following system:

Option 1: Increase the probability of the desired item dropping, and also, increase the probability of the person getting a negative buff should they fail. Make it on a sliding scale.
Example:
Currently you have a 5% chance to get a weapon drop from ifrit.
Increase that chance to 60% and in return, the player has an 80% chance to receive one of the following debuffs (all unremovable):

Quote:

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1) Slow'd by 25% for an hour.
2) Poisoned to take damage in combat for an hour.
3) All actions 10% less effective for an hour.
etc.

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Can have different buffs, and can allow player to adjust both percentages.

Option 2:
Allow players to "buff" the boss in exchange for increased drop rate.
Example:

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1) Increase hp by 5% for 2% drop rate increase
2) Increase Damage by 5% for 5% drop rate increase
3) Decrease time allotted to win by 5 min for 5% increase
etc.

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Thoughts?

*pull a couch*
*grab popcorn*

People wont stop whining

*sit down and eat popcorn*

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Originally Posted by rina_inverse

*pull a couch*
*grab popcorn*

People wont stop whining

*sit down and eat popcorn*

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Lol rina.
What do you think about idea itself tho?

Just got to admit, this is a perfect title... it could definitely get a dev to look at it...

I think your debuff [option 1] idea could work for a particular dungeon or something that has fitting with debuffs/diseases and such, but I think players might get annoyed at trying to do any dungeon content and then unable to successful do content in general afterwards because of it. Thus secluding it to a singular event should probably work for a way of increasing drop rates at greater risk (as well as really making the dungeon unique if it was fitting like I said "diseases" or something).

The second option is like a difficulty slider, thats always been an effective tool :). I just hope that the devs will consider AI patterns and not just do flat rate buffs like hp + X %.

One of my suggestions:

RNG over a large data set = amount of attempts SE would like a player to take before getting the reward.

I.E. 50% drop, expect players to try twice (its a bit generalized math but close enough).

Instead of using RNG for certain drops it can easily be turned into a token system, something SE has already had planned [100% token drop rate on failure to loot rare item]. Unfortunately the awesome drops are not turned into a token system, you can only buy lesser drops with the tokens.

I think one of the reasons they didnt do a token system for the harder drops is because often when the rates are converted to a fixed number you will find they had planned for some people to do it many hundreds of times (and you just got lucky). So they dont want you to realize how "big" the grind actually is. That and there is a psychological effect to chances that some people find addicting.

Its why I like promoting the progressive percentage system. Pick a general % you want. Now pick lower then that and start players on it, as they fail the run increase the % at a growing rate until they succeed, restart %. Never will your run be useless even if you didn't get anything, you will always be more likely to win than the last time.

You can make the reward a token that can be switched out for a particular item. So rather then 100 tokens = item, re-denominate for the fact tokens are now rare. (You can just use 100% tokens on rare items and ignore a chance system but like I said players might be disheartened to see some gear costs 500 runs - to hide that you can use the progressive %'s I suggested which rewards effort but is still a bit on chance as well).

By "buffing the boss" you will make the battle drag, and yet theres no guarantee that youll get it
By "debuffing yourself" you will make the post/pre battle drag, and yet theres no guarantee that youll get it

waste of time I say

EDIT
best solution IMO is to cancel any waiting time between battle
more battles, more chances

About buffing i kind of agree... However you can only use the "less time to kill boss" buff for example.

As for debuffs I disagree. You can have a normal battle, and a one with debuffs.
For all those people who can already beat the battle with eyes closed, they can add the debuffs option.
For those who are in a pug and are unsure, they can opt to have chance of debuffs at 0

I think we should see what their new system has to offer first off fully before throwing out solutions although yours sir is defiantly interesting!

Rather than giving yourself a handicap, it better to make harder battle
giving yourself a handicap only give you a reason if you make the party wipe

Ooooo break it down! I'll dish my take on this subject

Risk: Risk involves more than just maybe not getting something, it also involves losing. Call me casual, but I feel kinda crummy playing for hours and feeling like I've gotten nothing out of it. Imagine feeling like you've gotten done Less-than-nothing. So if you're going to risk something the reward has got to be worth it. That's why I'm not too thrilled with these rumors going around about weakening the rewards of multiple melds on materia... If I'm going to blow 100s of mils of gil, I want to have the reward that goes along with it please. Now if we dumb down the reward we need to dumb down the risk as well. Gotta keep that in balance....

Reward: Rewards can be anything gil, materia, mats, exp, CGI cutscenes, any sort of happy progress is a reward. Rewards need to scale with risk and difficulty or else you won't feel it. That's why the level up graphic needs to be flashy. If I'm grinding all the way to max level, Id better see fireworks, strobe lights and like a red carpeted choir singing my praises in the tune of the FF fanfare when I get there.

Probability: When I see probability, I just think meh... time sink. Whatever it is, you're going to end up doing it more than once so you'd better get real comfortable. You're gonna be there for a while. I don't really have a problem with this, but it tends to be the best stuff that has the lowest probability. In 1.0 there was no way to really improve probability on ANYTHING. So you had to speedrun spam stuff so you could increase your probability by sheer number of runs. I hope we get to change this in ARR somehow. To give us at least the illusion of some sort of progress. Token systems allow you to progress outside of RNG, but I think we'll still be speed running dungeons at some point in ARR, the mechanic is just too convenient.

Difficulty: Here's where it gets dicey. Difficult battles, difficult dungeons, difficult puzzles are necessary for some people. Its not about hardcore or casual, but some people actually enjoy losing 100x before a win. It makes that win sweet for them, gives them community cred, and the satisfaction and memories are long lasting. Its that lovely pay out. But then you have to contend with the people who don't have the patience or skill to lose 100x but they STILL want that same drop or loot or whatever. SE, if you want to put up some difficult stuff, and make the drops and pay out worth it, be prepared to deal with some consistent, persistent, never ending belly aching. And the rest of the community will have to deal with it too.

So basically, to address people's dislike for the random number generator, implement a lottery.

I see, I see :D


Here's another idea. What about we just remove the random number generator?

I remember the day when we can only have one zodiac spear instead of 99
Those days..

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Originally Posted by rina_inverse

I remember the day when we can only have one zodiac spear instead of 99
Those days..

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I remember days where you had to reset 100's of times to get folmahaut (i think)
Those days...

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Originally Posted by Abriael

So basically, to address people's dislike for the random number generator, implement a lottery.

I see, I see :D


Here's another idea. What about we just remove the random number generator?

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Removing it would make content go by too fast (is what they tell us).
As for the RNG, my idea simply allows you to adjust risk and reward.

Imagine:

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High risk + high reward + High probability = robbing bank
Low Risk + High reward + Low Probability = Lottery
Low Risk + Low to Moderate reward + High probability = Normal Job

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Just let the players choose the option they think they can pull off.
Not everyone can pull a bank heist, but if you have the SKILL, why wont the devs give you the chanse

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Originally Posted by rina_inverse

*pull a couch*
*grab popcorn*

People wont stop whining

*sit down and eat popcorn*

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http://i.imgur.com/56TBx.gif
lmao ^^

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Originally Posted by Renen

Removing it would make content go by too fast (is what they tell us).

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No, it would not. removing the RNG would not mean giving the prize immediately. You can simply give the prize after a statistically average number of attempts, and have a filling bar clearly indicate how many times you need to do the required actions to receive the desired prize.

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Originally Posted by Abriael

No, it would not. removing the RNG would not mean giving the prize immediately. You can simply give the prize after a statistically average number of attempts, and have a filling bar clearly indicate how many times you need to do the required actions to receive the desired prize.

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Oh right, that. Yeh, I agree that is a good idea. As long as its not like Dynamis (in length) >_<

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Originally Posted by Abriael

No, it would not. removing the RNG would not mean giving the prize immediately. You can simply give the prize after a statistically average number of attempts, and have a filling bar clearly indicate how many times you need to do the required actions to receive the desired prize.

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Maybe this would be good for a "statistically average" piece of gear...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Abriael

No, it would not. removing the RNG would not mean giving the prize immediately. You can simply give the prize after a statistically average number of attempts, and have a filling bar clearly indicate how many times you need to do the required actions to receive the desired prize.

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Them fighting words to some.. :P

I would like to see RNG removed but (like in my first post) I think there is some worry / concern on the psychological feelings associated with chances (gambling) vs "this is how it is".

It would be interesting to see a vote on it, more so to see it make appearance in a AAA [mmorpg] game. Wheels created ruts too deep to get out without help maybe.

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Originally Posted by HiirNoivl

Maybe this would be good for a "statistically average" piece of gear...

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Kind of what SE is doing for ARR or at least told us they are doing. 3 rare item drop, if you fail a roll you can get a token you can spend on slightly less awesome gear.

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Originally Posted by Shougun

Them fighting words to some.. :P

I would like to see RNG removed but (like in my first post) I think there is some worry / concern on the psychological feelings associated with chances (gambling) vs "this is how it is".

It would be interesting to see a vote on it, more so to see it make appearance in a AAA [mmorpg] game. Wheels created ruts too deep to get out without help maybe.



Kind of what SE is doing for ARR or at least told us they are doing. 3 rare item drop, if you fail a roll you can a token you can spend on slightly less awesome gear.

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A degree of randomness could be kept as a bonus in order to keep things exciting, but the difference lays exactly in the concept of bonus.

As we have now, the random reward is the baseline, and the statistical progression (IE: Tokens) is a consolation prize.

It would be better to make it with the statistical progression being the baseline, and the random reward to be a bonus.

It would shift the game from rewarding luck to rewarding effort, with a bit of luck to add some spice to it. And IMHO it would be more fair and enjoyable for everyone involved.

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Originally Posted by Abriael

It would shift the game from rewarding luck to rewarding effort, with a bit of luck to add some spice to it. And IMHO it would be more fair and enjoyable for everyone involved.

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That idea makes up one of my longer post/thread on the forums.. lol

There are actually quite a few people who are happy with RNG systems. They drive me bonkers XD

"I know this system is just to make me grind.. just make my attempts useful to that grind dammit.. >.>"

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Originally Posted by Shougun

That idea makes up one of my longer post/thread on the forums.. lol

There are actually quite a few people who are happy with RNG systems. They drive me bonkers XD

"I know this system is just to make me grind.. just make my attempts useful to that grind dammit.. >.>"

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People don't really like the RNG, unless they're patologically masochistic. They defend it only because it's implemented by their favorite developer (in this case SE), and everyone knows that their favorite developer can do no wrong.

RNG is just a poor substitute for difficulty. If something is supposed to be difficult, if it's a genuine effort, RNG goes away. A Relic Reborn is a good example of this. No one gets relics by RNG, they get it by acing all the content in the game. ARR has a better server structure, a better everything. I expect RNG to be replaced by better rewards for greater effort.

Nobody is defending RNG.

People aare bothered tthe one complaining is the one that has only beaten ifrit or moogle, where on the other content SE has completely remove a complete RNG system (darnus) and give out token system (garuda) they even confirmed token system for dungeons, so this is basically a beating the dead horse thread. Stupid.

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Originally Posted by Chardrizard

Nobody is defending RNG.

People aare bothered tthe one complaining is the one that has only beaten ifrit or moogle, where on the other content SE has completely remove a complete RNG system (darnus) and give out token system (garuda) they even confirmed token system for dungeons, so this is basically a beating the dead horse thread. Stupid.

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Unfortunately it isn't, because what you get with tokens is just a consolation prize.

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Originally Posted by Shougun

I think your debuff [option 1] idea could work for a particular dungeon or something that has fitting with debuffs/diseases and such, but I think players might get annoyed at trying to do any dungeon content and then unable to successful do content in general afterwards because of it. Thus secluding it to a singular event should probably work for a way of increasing drop rates at greater risk (as well as really making the dungeon unique if it was fitting like I said "diseases" or something).

The second option is like a difficulty slider, thats always been an effective tool :). I just hope that the devs will consider AI patterns and not just do flat rate buffs like hp + X %.

One of my suggestions:

RNG over a large data set = amount of attempts SE would like a player to take before getting the reward.

I.E. 50% drop, expect players to try twice (its a bit generalized math but close enough).

Instead of using RNG for certain drops it can easily be turned into a token system, something SE has already had planned [100% token drop rate on failure to loot rare item]. Unfortunately the awesome drops are not turned into a token system, you can only buy lesser drops with the tokens.

I think one of the reasons they didnt do a token system for the harder drops is because often when the rates are converted to a fixed number you will find they had planned for some people to do it many hundreds of times (and you just got lucky). So they dont want you to realize how "big" the grind actually is. That and there is a psychological effect to chances that some people find addicting.

Its why I like promoting the progressive percentage system. Pick a general % you want. Now pick lower then that and start players on it, as they fail the run increase the % at a growing rate until they succeed, restart %. Never will your run be useless even if you didn't get anything, you will always be more likely to win than the last time.

You can make the reward a token that can be switched out for a particular item. So rather then 100 tokens = item, re-denominate for the fact tokens are now rare. (You can just use 100% tokens on rare items and ignore a chance system but like I said players might be disheartened to see some gear costs 500 runs - to hide that you can use the progressive %'s I suggested which rewards effort but is still a bit on chance as well).

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I have an idea to solve the problem that is a bit similar but with no tokens... My idea is that bosses (in extreme mode at least) only drop very rare items, there are no common drops that you may encounter on the normal or hard mode of the boss fight.

On a hard run you have a low chance or running into very rare items, a higher chance of running into rare and a drastically higher chance of running into common drop.

For normal difficulty run you have near impossible chance of running into very rare item, a low chance of running into a rare item and a high chance of running into a common item.


Now for the extreme run, if there is 1/10 chance of getting a very rare item and you get no items from the boss in the run, the possibility of getting an item from that category in the next run is 1/9, and so on for the continuing runs until you get an item... also if you lose the dungeon and you won the previous run without getting any items you probability of getting the item won't reset...This would make extreme version fights the place where parties would hunt the very rare items... it would also promote retries if you don't get the item in one run...

Now for normal or hard modes of dungeons...
In extreme dunegeons you can only get items from very rare category, so if you're unlucky for a run you won't get any items from the boss...

But for normal and hard dungeons you will also have to chance to get rare and common drops... Since the common and rare drops provide you a higher probabity of getting an item than the rare drop it would be almost impossible for you get any very rare drop on those runs...

Also because of this system (the one I'm explaining), it would seem like you could only get one item per boss, which would be annoying for players looking for numerous items in order to sell or just have. So in order to compensate for them, depending on how well you did in the normal and hard runs you can get as much as five item slots, each slot running the same 1/2 or 1/5 probability for the common or rare items...
what do you think?

This issue isn't about how RNG certain drops are, it's the fact that getting ANY reward is RNG. In most modern day MMO's bosses are guaranteed to drop a certain amount of loot, what that loot is, is RNG. This is common practice and usually appeases people.

Well the thing about rng is the statistic isn't static because as we have already seen new jobs are coming down the pipe. So you statistical chance of getting what you want is declining so a token system works the best around this for specific items. And, don't consider rng a time sync, it isn't even though it acts as one to some there are many better time syncs that they could easily throw in as road blocks. Rng is based on the original table top idea that rarity is given to an item by limiting its appearance. The best way to do that where its "fair" so all players can access it is statistical drop rates that are base on a random number generator. Which is much more socially acceptable then only one Excalibur on the server so if you don't get it you have to search for a next best thing. Which to be honest is even more fair in the real world scheme of things but can you imagine the complaints that this person is better and you can not reach that plateau because it literally no longer exists. Similar to how eve where new players will always be a disadvantage because leveling is time invested.

SE plan the Skirmish way + token system.
100% drop from boss monsters, only RNG would be what drop and who get the drop (if more than 1 roll for it).

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Originally Posted by Abriael

People don't really like the RNG, unless they're patologically masochistic. They defend it only because it's implemented by their favorite developer (in this case SE), and everyone knows that their favorite developer can do no wrong.

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.... or have already had good luck on drops (or wasted hours on end) and they don't want the hard work of sitting in front of the PC annulled by giving the others an easier way to get the same items.

"Yes, RNG is fabulous. I'd much rather spend a week doing the same thing over and over again since all other content isn't really that interesting" :rolleyes:

Anyhow, someone mentioned 100% drop each time with RNG = /random on who gets the item. It's fine, but what could be the problem is the length of FFXIV dungeons. They can be stormed through, and with a 100% drop rate each time (no abnormal re-entry timers) you could deck out a full pt in a day.

Difficulty/length/timers/exclusivity of the items dropped . . . . not an easy job to put them all into balance.

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Originally Posted by Nuinn

Anyhow, someone mentioned 100% drop each time with RNG = /random on who gets the item. It's fine, but what could be the problem is the length of FFXIV dungeons. They can be stormed through, and with a 100% drop rate each time (no abnormal re-entry timers) you could deck out a full pt in a day.

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Not if you can roll only 3 times the week each dungeon.

SE told already the system for dungeons will be like 3-4 certain drops for the party for one week and others get tokens or something like that. So even if someone don't get the item get token. After you accumulate xxx tokens you may be able to trade for a dungeon item of your like.

Plus, since there won't be time attack or speed runs anymore each dungeon will be harder and take more time to complete (maybe even with multiple paths).

That was what I understood.

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Originally Posted by Nuinn

.... or have already had good luck on drops (or wasted hours on end) and they don't want the hard work of sitting in front of the PC annulled by giving the others an easier way to get the same items.

"Yes, RNG is fabulous. I'd much rather spend a week doing the same thing over and over again since all other content isn't really that interesting" :rolleyes:

Anyhow, someone mentioned 100% drop each time with RNG = /random on who gets the item. It's fine, but what could be the problem is the length of FFXIV dungeons. They can be stormed through, and with a 100% drop rate each time (no abnormal re-entry timers) you could deck out a full pt in a day.

Difficulty/length/timers/exclusivity of the items dropped . . . . not an easy job to put them all into balance.

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For some reason people assume that no RNG means easier.

RNG + data = average amount of attempts.

Make a fixed number of tries at or above that number. You really havent made it any easier, just that every time you put effort in you get a visible reward out (your counter goes up and you always know each attempt was worth it).

Mathematically sound.


Just one more example because i've seen this idea a lot (people think no RNG must mean easier)

SE set a drop rate of 50%, so you can expect that 2 tries is a pretty solid "i'm going to get it" but you may do 3 because that is how %'s are. HOWEVER over the course of many many people doing this event of 50% it will end up being exactly the % (1/2) and only personally appeared to you as a 33.3333% drop rate. So, the reality is the difficulty got fuubared for you but everyone else got it easier (because your that one person the ratio used to offset it from the people who got lucky and did it the first time).

Rather then do all this wild push pull outliers no outliers. Find the rate you want, turn it into a fixed number if you feel you want it to be harder then the fixed number make it 4 tries. So, SE effectively made content harder on average by using a system NOT with RNG.

The only thing RNG does is add mystery and gamble (an addictive mystery- though I think devs have way overrated this aspect). The mystery is particularly useful for things you cant really explain like critical hits. What describes a critical hit, why cant you get non stop critical hits, where did you even hit to get the critical? We dont know, the game isnt '3d' enough to support actual body part targeting and skill involved that you may see in a first person shooter "headshots" or extremely commonly seen in Borderlands I/II.

Thus for criticals in a game environment like FFXIV you have to use RNG since there is no way to properly and accurately rely on skill instead, which should technically be the determining factor of criticals. Of course people who suck at aiming will prefer RNG over skill based since they will hardly ever (or at least think they will hardly ever) get a critical hit (thus they choose the system that offers the higher proc., no other reason unless you are a gambler).


You can use multiple loot systems in tandem to create mystery as well as progressive climbing reward.

The only limit to these systems is SE budget :P

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Originally Posted by Felis

Not if you can roll only 3 times the week each dungeon.

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Which, in my opinion sucks. . . . For example, you do a dungeon on Monday, roll 3 times, don't get what you want then sit out the rest of the week since there's nothing really of value for you in the dungeon :/ I dunno, perhaps it won't be all that bad, but I hate artificial restrictions like that (Why can't I roll, other than "cuz devs said you can't". . . .)

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Originally Posted by Nuinn

Which, in my opinion sucks. . . . For example, you do a dungeon on Monday, roll 3 times, don't get what you want then sit out the rest of the week since there's nothing really of value for you in the dungeon :/ I dunno, perhaps it won't be all that bad, but I hate artificial restrictions like that (Why can't I roll, other than "cuz devs said you can't". . . .)

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Welcome to Dynamis!

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Originally Posted by Renen

Welcome to Dynamis!

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Well, to be fair... that was like a 4 hour run.. you really should'nt be spamming a single event that takes 4 hours and includes 36 people.. Once every 3 days was already more than I could stand after the first few runs..

I like the idea of gradually increasing drop % on Exclusive items. Seeing as I was 0/150+ on emperor pin back in XI.