What exactly were Zoraal Ja's logistical war plans?

I find it difficult to grasp what Zoraal Ja was thinking in regards to his world-conquering ambitions. Specifically, I'm referring to his plans as they existed from prior to Dawntrail, up through the first part of the Dawntrail MSQ. During the time period where he planned to use the forces of Tural to conquer and forcibly unite the rest of the world, starting with Garlemald.

I get that he was a big fish in a small pond. That he did not comprehend the scale or sophistication of war across the salt. It's perfectly reasonable that he simply didn't realize how outclassed Tural would be militarily.

What I don't get is how he could look at a map, ponder the logistics for more than five seconds, and still conclude "yeah, I can do this."

Picking Garlemald as a first target makes sense from a military and diplomatic standpoint. They've been terribly weakened by the events of Shadowbringers and Endwalker, and their prior imperialist actions have limited their prospects for outside military help. So he's clearly put at at least some thought into what he's doing.

But how does he plan to move his army or supply lines? He leads a nation with no blue water navy, no blue water merchant marine, and not even a single deep-water port. Does he expect to hire Lominsan merchant shipping to move his army and supplies, despite his not-exactly-secret plans to eventually invade Eorzea? Does he plan to spend several years constructing port facilities and building a navy from scratch, all the while hoping Garlemald doesn't recover while he's doing this?

Or has he just never bothered to inquire as to the experiences of a single returned Silverscale regarding just how long and complex the journey across the salt actually is?

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Originally Posted by Waffleiron70

Or has he just never bothered to inquire as to the experiences of a single returned Silverscale regarding just how long and complex the journey across the salt actually is?

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That, basically.

Zoraal Ja has a demonstrably hugely inflated image of his own combat prowess, and that's an image that probably extends to his view of the people he commands. But you watch him during the rite of succession, and even afterwards in the first attack on Tuliyollal, and you see that his ego is his only plan. He's a Soulsborne player who thinks the only way to play the game is 'solo dex build', his plan is just to personally walk in there and brute force the solution. His war plan against the Three Great Continents was absolutely to just sail east and take his twinfangs to the first world leader he sets his eyes on.

And weirdly, that might actually get him somewhere? I don't know if he'd beeline for Garlemald or just start an eastward push with the first place he sets land on, but both of those are pretty good starts; if he goes for Garlemald he's basically just aiming at a bunch of spineless bureaucrats that are the only guys left in charge, he can easily handle that. If he just starts where he finds himself there's even chance he either starts in Limsa or Sharlayan; Limsa's not looking great for him but he might get the first strike, and he can absolutely overpower Old Sharlayan. His step two is a failure in every single scenario, but the step one might actually work.

The logistics are a huge stumbling block for his ambitions, to be sure. Tural is kind of just barely unified in the first place, as we see with the various factions we meet in DT that just plain don't like each other. Prior to DT it is a weak and largely artificial nation held together exclusively by Gulool Ja Ja's charisma and fame vs generations of traditional infighting.

But, giving Zoraal Ja the benefit of the doubt that he could even get his fledgling forces over to Ilsabard, Garlemald more or less is not a functional nation itself and would genuinely be easy pickings. It no longer has a standing army of any notable size and what is left is fragmented without a central command structure. It has a weakened and shrunk population governed by cowardly bureacrats who barely do anything besides consume air and food. Tural could then maybe parlay the few solid resources they'd gain from this endeavor (Cereuleum and leftover magitek) to maybe do something. Possibly. If he's lucky and doesn't just freeze to death. After all, even the Eorzeans struggled to survive against the elements alone with the foreknowledge of just how bad the climate is up there.

There's very little gain for Tural and a high degree of risk. I'm not sure his "we need to teach the new generation how bad war is" schtick he spouts early in the expansion really serves as a strong enough justification for what is ultimately a really bad bet.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

he can absolutely overpower Old Sharlayan.

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Nope. Old Sharlayan is militarily a powerhouse despite abhorring war. They have by far the most powerful magicks and magic-powered technology of any activen nation in the setting and even the Garlean Empire loathes the idea of trying to invade it. Koana's reasoning for trying to rapidly industrialize Tuliyollal and the rest of Tural is to emulate Sharlayan's example and deter outside attackers. And they do have many active fighters and peacekeepers. Just see the Scions and people like Lalah Jinjahl.

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Originally Posted by Aedwyn

The logistics are a huge stumbling block for his ambitions, to be sure. Tural is kind of just barely unified in the first place, as we see with the various factions we meet in DT that just plain don't like each other. Prior to DT it is a weak and largely artificial nation held together exclusively by Gulool Ja Ja's charisma and fame vs generations of traditional infighting.

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Not really. Alexandria only really got the leg up over Tuliyollal with its surprise attack and shock and awe tactics. Once Koana and Wuk Lamat organize a defense, the people of Tural hold their own against the otherwise technologically superior nation and only really need help dismantling Alexandria's air force.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

If he just starts where he finds himself there's even chance he either starts in Limsa or Sharlayan; Limsa's not looking great for him but he might get the first strike, and he can absolutely overpower Old Sharlayan.

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Sharlayan is probably a pretty good tactical target, depending on whether they're as peaceful as they look or if they're loaded up with defence mechanisms, and Zoraal Ja would have heard a lot about them from Koana.

If they are indeed an easy target, you capture them and you've got access to all their research and scientists and prevent them from being available for the rest of the Eorzean alliance to consult with.

Alternately his plan could have been to sail west from the western side of Tural – if you've got to build a port anyway, it can be put wherever it works best – and there might be a relatively clear path through the Azim Steppe and other sparsely populated areas. But I don't think we know a lot about exactly what is there.

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Originally Posted by Dikatis

Nope. Old Sharlayan is militarily a powerhouse despite abhorring war. They have by far the most powerful magicks and magic-powered technology of any activen nation in the setting and even the Garlean Empire loathes the idea of trying to invade it. Koana's reasoning for trying to rapidly industrialize Tuliyollal and the rest of Tural is to emulate Sharlayan's example and deter outside attackers. And they do have many active fighters and peacekeepers. Just see the Scions and people like Lalah Jinjahl.

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See, my thought is that the first place he walks into won't be expecting a fight right out the gate, so he's got the strength of basically sucker-punching the first place he aims at. Sharlayan could probably muster a terrifying defense if they need to (we've never seen them try but we'll give them that credit), but if they don't, then literally the only barrier to killing at least a few leaders is 'kind of a lot of stairs'. Limsa's a lot harder to attack, but if their guard is down then it's entirely possible he can kick off his assault with an attempted murder of the Admiral right on first meeting, and who the hell knows what becomes of Limsa if she dies.

Both Sharlayan and Limsa are awful second targets because of the defenses they can rustle up when they need to, and frankly most nations in the game are also terrible first targets. But I genuinely just believe he could sucker-punch the most likely first targets.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

Alternately his plan could have been to sail east from the western side of Tural – if you've got to build a port anyway, it can be put wherever it works best – and there might be a relatively clear path through the Azim Steppe and other sparsely populated areas. But I don't think we know a lot about exactly what is there.

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Going the other direction is an interesting question. Leaving aside Meracydia as a wildcard since we don't have an exact place for it, the first place he'd hit is probably Hingashi. Hingashi proper is gonna stop him right away; even we haven't met their leaders, there's no way in hell Zoraal Ja gets far enough in to take any serious territory or take down any major leaders, although I could definitely see him getting a few islands. He's unlikely to skip over Hingashi to get to Doma and the Azim Steppe, but he does have a better chance if he somehow does. If he hangs south he gets to Nagxia, which is hard to read; it's the only chance he's got to strike a mainland right off the bat, and it's probably roughly on Doma's level of 'puts up a good fight but is still a bit of a mess', but without knowing their leadership situation it's hard to say if Zoraal Ja's approach would get him anywhere meaningful, or just end him capturing a few seaside hamlets.

Basically, hitting Othard probably gets him lesser immediate gains, but in a way that probably also makes him less enemies.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

See, my thought is that the first place he walks into won't be expecting a fight right out the gate, so he's got the strength of basically sucker-punching the first place he aims at.

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Sharlayan had systems in place to detect the destruction of Zodiark and the inevitable arrival of the Final Days. It'd be shocking if they didn't have an anti-invasion mreasures given that the whole reason for the exodus was a lack of defenses in the Dravanian Hinterlands. Garlemald was wary of trying to invade Sharlayan despite the technological resources it'd have to gain from subjugating it. I fully expect a contingent of Sharlayan archmages to blast most of the Garlean air fleet out of the sky with Comet if they ever tried.

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Originally Posted by Dikatis

Sharlayan had systems in place to detect the destruction of Zodiark and the inevitable arrival of the Final Days. It'd be shocking if they didn't have an anti-invasion mreasures given that the whole reason for the exodus was a lack of defenses in the Dravanian Hinterlands. Garlemald was wary of trying to invade Sharlayan despite the technological resources it'd have to gain from subjugating it. I fully expect a contingent of Sharlayan archmages to blast most of the Garlean air fleet out of the sky with Comet if they ever tried.

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Given what we've learned of Sharlayan, I have no doubt that they have detailed procedures and plans to detect and respond to a potential invasion. But I also imagine that their response plans are basically a very sophisticated form of "run away." After all, "stand and fight" over a piece of ground is antithetical both to their historical identity as neutral preservers of knowledge, and to their assumed mission of ensuring mankind's survival through the Final Days.

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Originally Posted by Waffleiron70

Given what we've learned of Sharlayan, I have no doubt that they have detailed procedures and plans to detect and respond to a potential invasion. But I also imagine that their response plans are basically a very sophisticated form of "run away." After all, "stand and fight" over a piece of ground is antithetical both to their historical identity as neutral preservers of knowledge, and to their assumed mission of ensuring mankind's survival through the Final Days.

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Where would they run to in the event of an invasion? All of their important tech is there, including the means for an exodus to the moon that took two centuries to create. They have to either defend their work or abandon it and risk dooming all of mankind. Even with their anti-violence stance, I don't think the Forum could stomach that.

Sharlayan's anti-interventionist stance also loosened dramatically post-Final Days and it has the Eorzean Alliance on speed dial. I really, really doubt that Old Sharlayan could fall to Alexandria.

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Originally Posted by Dikatis

Sharlayan had systems in place to detect the destruction of Zodiark and the inevitable arrival of the Final Days. It'd be shocking if they didn't have an anti-invasion mreasures given that the whole reason for the exodus was a lack of defenses in the Dravanian Hinterlands. Garlemald was wary of trying to invade Sharlayan despite the technological resources it'd have to gain from subjugating it. I fully expect a contingent of Sharlayan archmages to blast most of the Garlean air fleet out of the sky with Comet if they ever tried.

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Garlemald was a very known foe, though, that attacked in very known ways that they could see coming. Like, I assume they had a dedicated 'Garlean Watcher' shift whose entire job was to watch for big airships coming over the horizon.

What Zoraal Ja isn't is 'Garlean'; he probably has the element of surprise just because they won't see a bunch of Turalians coming for blood. Hell, I could make a genuine case that a pre-Alexandrian Zoraal Ja handles this better than a post-Alexandrian one; Sharlayan's probably a lot better at looking out for and countering airships.

A terrifying thought occurs to me. If Zoraal Ja has truly given no thought as to the practicality of ocean-going travel...

Then he might actually be planning to attempt to cross the ocean using punutiy-drawn riverboats.

My 1st question would be do the Scions know about his plan before he somehow gets ahold of seafaring ships. Because to me if they know about it they'd be the ones to warn the other nations. Even if they didn't but they are in any of the countries we see them attacking 1st then I still give those countries the win. I also don't see Zoraal Ja coming in peacefully. Sharlyean has a better time as the harbor is the only place anything bigger than a longboat can dock at. To get to Garlemald the "easiest" route would take them up through the burn, but then they would have to cut inland or find more boats in oder to cross the knowing sea. As I've said I don't see the guy flying friendly colors or waiting too long to attack. That and how many captains of the Limsan navy would know what a Turali flag looked like? To anyone eager to putting off stopping pirating would see assuming on my part foreign ships that aren't on the "don't attack" list and be all too happy to plunder said ships. I also doubt Carvallian is the only one who secretly has a Garlean engine. The Limsan navy would also have the advantage just by knowing their own backyard.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

Alexandria only really got the leg up over Tuliyollal with its surprise attack and shock and awe tactics. Once Koana and Wuk Lamat organize a defense, the people of Tural hold their own against the otherwise technologically superior nation and only really need help dismantling Alexandria's air force.

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And i bet even that was more of a Time issue, even without the aid they got, there surely would be some beasts to ride or magics to use....

To get back to the original question (since I haven't addressed it at all in my responses), Zoraal Ja was not planning to launch a global invasion immediately. His and Sareel Ja's comments indicated that they planned to spend a few years building up Tural's military strength, partially by conscripting Koana to develop weapons and airships to equip Tuliyollal's forces by making use of the Ceruleum deposits in Xak Tural. Then would presumably spend some time finding islands to use as refueling stations before launching a full-scale invasion of Aldenard or Ilsabard. Whether or not this would have worked out is up in the air, but Koana is clearly uncomfortable with the idea while not refuting it as impossible.

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Originally Posted by Dikatis

To get back to the original question (since I haven't addressed it at all in my responses), Zoraal Ja was not planning to launch a global invasion immediately. His and Sareel Ja's comments indicated that they planned to spend a few years building up Tural's military strength, partially by conscripting Koana to develop weapons and airships to equip Tuliyollal's forces by making use of the Ceruleum deposits in Xak Tural. Then would presumably spend some time finding islands to use as refueling stations before launching a full-scale invasion of Aldenard or Ilsabard. Whether or not this would have worked out is up in the air, but Koana is clearly uncomfortable with the idea while not refuting it as impossible.

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That is definitely the most reasonable approach. The one thing I have trouble squaring it with is the choice of Garlemald as a first target. Garlemald makes sense as things stand because they're in utter shambles in the aftermath of the whole civil war and Zenos/Fandaniel/Anima shenanigans. But a few years of buildup on Tural's side is a few years that Garlemald has to recover. And a lot of recovery is possible in a few years.

And once Garlemald is in any sort of fighting shape again, they become a terrible target, if only because of the terrain. I mean...is there any approach to their lands that doesn't go over harsh mountains? And while I believe that it's been established that there are cold regions in Tural, certainly it seems from what we see in Dawntrail that most of their population is accustomed to fairly hot climes. It'd be like trying to pull a Hannibal, except with transatlantic (or transpacific) travel added in, and instead of Italy you're invading Greenland.

I suppose the most benefit of the doubt that could be given here is that Garlemald might only be a tentative first target, and that Zoraal Ja would reassess who to invade based on the world conditions once he actually has a navy.

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Originally Posted by Waffleiron70

That is definitely the most reasonable approach. The one thing I have trouble squaring it with is the choice of Garlemald as a first target. Garlemald makes sense as things stand because they're in utter shambles in the aftermath of the whole civil war and Zenos/Fandaniel/Anima shenanigans. But a few years of buildup on Tural's side is a few years that Garlemald has to recover. And a lot of recovery is possible in a few years.

And once Garlemald is in any sort of fighting shape again, they become a terrible target, if only because of the terrain. I mean...is there any approach to their lands that doesn't go over harsh mountains? And while I believe that it's been established that there are cold regions in Tural, certainly it seems from what we see in Dawntrail that most of their population is accustomed to fairly hot climes. It'd be like trying to pull a Hannibal, except with transatlantic (or transpacific) travel added in, and instead of Italy you're invading Greenland.

I suppose the most benefit of the doubt that could be given here is that Garlemald might only be a tentative first target, and that Zoraal Ja would reassess who to invade based on the world conditions once he actually has a navy.

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Honestly, I don't even get the idea that he does intend to aim for Garlemald first and specifically; the scenes where he and Sareel Ja talk about them isn't really about them as a target so much as 'well we wouldn't make their mistakes'.

An approach that itself seems kind of blind and naive. Like, it doesn't actually seem like Zoraal understands the Garlean war, he just knows it happened and has decided that the fact the Garleans lost must've been because the Garleans just sucked at this.

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Originally Posted by Cleretic

Honestly, I don't even get the idea that he does intend to aim for Garlemald first and specifically; the scenes where he and Sareel Ja talk about them isn't really about them as a target so much as 'well we wouldn't make their mistakes'.

An approach that itself seems kind of blind and naive. Like, it doesn't actually seem like Zoraal understands the Garlean war, he just knows it happened and has decided that the fact the Garleans lost must've been because the Garleans just sucked at this.

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You might be right. The reason I thought he was targeting Garlemald specifically was from a line in the post-Endwalker quests ("The Game Is Afoot" cutscene #4). When I first played through that quest, it sounded like his aim was Garlemald. And then in Dawntrail when he said he was going to conquer the entire world I filtered my understanding through that. But in going back to review the post-EW line, it's a bit more ambiguous than I remember:

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Word of the Garlean Empire's collapse has reached Tural. While most are simply relieved, he sees weakness to exploit, and would lead our armies across the seas on a campaign of conquest.

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I had originally taken that to mean that he saw the weakness of Garlemald and was planning to conquer it. But I suppose it could also mean that the collapse of the Garlean empire created general instability and weakness in the affected areas, and opened an opportunity for conquest among a variety of potential targets.

Edit: Even so, though, the idea that the collapse of the empire created an exploitable weakness seems to mitigate against the idea that he would first spend years preparing.