The Exarch and Zodiark

So a few things are bothering me about this;
-Calamities happen as the shard is being rejoined with its aether being shoved back into the source
-Zodiark is said to only need 1 more rejoining/calamity to have enough power to free itself from its bindings
-The Exarch is from a future where the 8th Calamity/rejoining happened
-This future is far ahead of when the 8th calamity took place
-Emet-Selch said they were going to use the existing life on the source to bring back the Amourtines that sacrificed themselves to save their world.

So i have to ask ;

1. Why does The Exarch have no recollection of Zodiark who should have been freed?
2. Why was life allowed to carry on? (since Ironworks were very much still going)
3. Are the Acians being outright lied to by Zodiark? they are tempered after all
4. Has Zodiark gained a will of its own beyond it's original purpose?
5. Are more rejoinings actually needed beyond the 8th?

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Originally Posted by Crushnight

-Zodiark is said to only need 1 more rejoining/calamity to have enough power to free itself from its bindings

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Who said this?

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Originally Posted by Edax

Who said this?

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No one. That's a therory that got traction because Elidibus said they were about to get the "final key" to free their god. Some speculated it was one last rejoining, but there's absolutely no proof other than this single mention

It would make very little sense for Zodiark to be "freed" after one more rejoining anyway. Wasn't he what Hydaelyn actually sundered? The act of splitting him, the will of the planet, then split the world itself into so many shards.

To the OP:

1.) The Exarch likely never even heard of Zodiark until coming into contact with Emet-Selch.
2.) Life continued because Zodiark was still sundered and bound.
3.) There's no telling, but I suppose it's possible. It's equally possible that the Ascians have been drawing their own conclusions this entire time.
4.) We don't know. If other primals are indications, probably not. The only primal known to have achieved a will of its own is Odin, and even he is still constrained by his original purpose. He merely turned from utter destruction to seeking his own destruction through honorable combat.
5.) More rejoinings are definitely needed. Part of the Ascians' plan also involves restoring their sundered compatriots to their original selves. This would require reintegration of as many shards as possible. Not really sure how they plan to get around the mess they made of the void, though.

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Originally Posted by Ardox

No one. That's a therory that got traction because Elidibus said they were about to get the "final key" to free their god. Some speculated it was one last rejoining, but there's absolutely no proof other than this single mention

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I definitely remember someone saying 1 more rejoining is needed to free Zodiark, but can't remember who or when...

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Originally Posted by Absimiliard

1.) The Exarch likely never even heard of Zodiark until coming into contact with Emet-Selch.

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There's a good chance he would be aware of Zodiark, and the cosmology as we understand it.

Even before all the CT and time travel business, G'raha Tia is from the Students of Baldesion, an organisation sharing research with the Scions. We certainly have some concept of the Ascians referencing their "one true god" at the stage in post-ARR pre-CT where he would have been still with them, so may have heard of it then. He is certainly aware of Hydaelyn.

If not, in the future he's working with the descendants of the Ironworks team, who presumably passed down that knowledge.

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Originally Posted by Erendis

I definitely remember someone saying 1 more rejoining is needed to free Zodiark, but can't remember who or when...

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We were told that the eighth Calamity would be the last, and I think that's all that it's coming from, but there are lots of ways to read that.

It could be the tipping point that frees Zodiark.

It could be to do with the bad future, where the Ascians may have done their job too well and irreversibly destroyed civilisation and life itself on the Source.

It could be we will face one last Calamity in the game, whether it comes to pass or is halted by our actions, before we put a stop to the cycle entirely.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

We were told that the eighth Calamity would be the last, and I think that's all that it's coming from, but there are lots of ways to read that.

It could be the tipping point that frees Zodiark.

It could be to do with the bad future, where the Ascians may have done their job too well and irreversibly destroyed civilisation and life itself on the Source.

It could be we will face one last Calamity in the game, whether it comes to pass or is halted by our actions, before we put a stop to the cycle entirely.

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To be as precise as possible, yoshi-p told us st either the eu or jp fanfest, and it was written in a slide. If someone could find said slide, it would help a lot.

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Originally Posted by Crushnight

Why was life allowed to carry on? (since Ironworks were very much still going)

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The answer to this is simple...time. The 8th Umbral Calamity, the most powerful of them all, merely tipped the scales in Zodiark's favor, so there would no longer be a need for the Ascians to intervene. They are immortal, so they have all the time in the world to wait for their master to absorb the rest of the shards (which were probably slowly getting reabsorbed into the Source at this point), so life was allowed to carry on merely because it would eventually cease from all the unavoidable Rejoinings that would occur from then on.

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Originally Posted by MrThinker

To be as precise as possible, yoshi-p told us st either the eu or jp fanfest, and it was written in a slide. If someone could find said slide, it would help a lot.

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It began with the 2018 NA Fanfest, with the original Shadowbringers announcement at the Keynote--the phrasing "Eighth and Final Umbral Era" is used, as seen in this rip. Obviously, that's informed our understanding of Shadowbringers' plot from the beginning, even if it's not really ever specifically clarified by ShB itself.

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Originally Posted by RenewalXVII

It began with the 2018 NA Fanfest, with the original Shadowbringers announcement at the Keynote--the phrasing "Eighth and Final Umbral Era" is used, as seen in this rip. Obviously, that's informed our understanding of Shadowbringers' plot from the beginning, even if it's not really ever specifically clarified by ShB itself.

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Okay it was NA, I stand corrected.

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Originally Posted by RyuDragnier

The answer to this is simple...time. The 8th Umbral Calamity, the most powerful of them all, merely tipped the scales in Zodiark's favor, so there would no longer be a need for the Ascians to intervene. They are immortal, so they have all the time in the world to wait for their master to absorb the rest of the shards (which were probably slowly getting reabsorbed into the Source at this point), so life was allowed to carry on merely because it would eventually cease from all the unavoidable Rejoinings that would occur from then on.

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More importantly from their perspective, the Ascians need humanity to survive and rebuild so they can resume building up civilisations and setting the stage for more conflict.

It's quite possible the eighth Calamity was in fact a disaster for the Ascians - that Black Rose worked far beyond what they anticipated or required, and humanity if not the Source itself is dying. Certainly this seems to be the belief of the Future Ironworks when they hatch their plan to sacrifice their existence so a better one can replace it - and the only way I can see it justified as a whole.

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Originally Posted by RenewalXVII

Obviously, that's informed our understanding of Shadowbringers' plot from the beginning, even if it's not really ever specifically clarified by ShB itself.

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Not so much our "understanding" as our speculation about where the story might go. From what we learned in the game itself, I don't think we've had any reason to understand the next Calamity to be the final one - other than maybe wondering what would happen now we've had one of each 'elemental' Calamity.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

It's quite possible the eighth Calamity was in fact a disaster for the Ascians - that Black Rose worked far beyond what they anticipated or required, and humanity if not the Source itself is dying. Certainly this seems to be the belief of the Future Ironworks when they hatch their plan to sacrifice their existence so a better one can replace it - and the only way I can see it justified as a whole.

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That was certainly the impression I got. The Source does not, as far as we know, have any special protections that would prevent its destruction if it came down to that. Bearing that in mind, Black Rose definitely seems like something that could kill the world if used too often. After all, it even destroys aether.

Emet-Selch was also seen muttering to himself about the effect of the Light-aspected calamity on Black Rose. I wonder what he thought it might do, and what actually happened in Exarch's future timeline. In fact, I wonder what future!Emet-Selch thought about what happened...

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Originally Posted by AmemeAmeklin

Emet-Selch was also seen muttering to himself about the effect of the Light-aspected calamity on Black Rose. I wonder what he thought it might do, and what actually happened in Exarch's future timeline. In fact, I wonder what future!Emet-Selch thought about what happened...

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My reading of that scene was that Emet-Selch was busy trying to salvage the situation on the First, where Minfilia's sacrifice had brought the First back to "brink of a Flood of Light" rather than "actual Flood of Light". Since there needs to be a major disaster on the Source to coincide with that in order to complete a Rejoining, he likely just (in that moment) had the idea of using Black Rose as a catalyst, rather than whatever plans the Ascians had before that went awry. (Given Lahabrea's involvement before Emet-Selch took over, it's likely this was Thordan.)

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Originally Posted by YianKutku

My reading of that scene was that Emet-Selch was busy trying to salvage the situation on the First, where Minfilia's sacrifice had brought the First back to "brink of a Flood of Light" rather than "actual Flood of Light". Since there needs to be a major disaster on the Source to coincide with that in order to complete a Rejoining, he likely just (in that moment) had the idea of using Black Rose as a catalyst, rather than whatever plans the Ascians had before that went awry. (Given Lahabrea's involvement before Emet-Selch took over, it's likely this was Thordan.)

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The Ascians actually wanted it to hover on the brink. A full blown flood of light consuming the entire world would've had similar results to their first (failed) attempt at initiating a rejoining. The only real difference is that it would be a void of light instead of darkness. Ardbert and his companions not doing what the Ascians anticipated is what actually tipped the scales beyond the breaking point and triggered the flood. The flood is what forced them to step up their timetables on the Source; to trigger a rejoining before the First could be completely consumed by the light.

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Originally Posted by Absimiliard

The Ascians actually wanted it to hover on the brink. A full blown flood of light consuming the entire world would've had similar results to their first (failed) attempt at initiating a rejoining. The only real difference is that it would be a void of light instead of darkness. Ardbert and his companions not doing what the Ascians anticipated is what actually tipped the scales beyond the breaking point and triggered the flood. The flood is what forced them to step up their timetables on the Source; to trigger a rejoining before the First could be completely consumed by the light.

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Emet-Selch was responsible for Vauthry, and the subsequent pivot in Eulmore's policies. This heavily implies that while Ardbert had upended the original plan of the Ascians, after the First was temporarily stabilized by Minfilia's actions, the Ascians (or at least Emet-Selch representing the Ascians) were still trying to interfere to cause suffering.

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Originally Posted by Absimiliard

The Ascians actually wanted it to hover on the brink. A full blown flood of light consuming the entire world would've had similar results to their first (failed) attempt at initiating a rejoining. The only real difference is that it would be a void of light instead of darkness. Ardbert and his companions not doing what the Ascians anticipated is what actually tipped the scales beyond the breaking point and triggered the flood. The flood is what forced them to step up their timetables on the Source; to trigger a rejoining before the First could be completely consumed by the light.

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Emet-Selch clearly state he created Vauthry following the failure of their plans involving Ardbert. (Innocence defeat cutscene)

From what I understand, the Emet-Selch got his 2nd idea for rejoining the First during the black rose factory cutscene (where he tells Varis they might not meet again in this lifetime; where he left for the first).

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Originally Posted by YianKutku

Emet-Selch was responsible for Vauthry, and the subsequent pivot in Eulmore's policies. This heavily implies that while Ardbert had upended the original plan of the Ascians, after the First was temporarily stabilized by Minfilia's actions, the Ascians (or at least Emet-Selch representing the Ascians) were still trying to interfere to cause suffering.

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Originally Posted by Ardox

Emet-Selch clearly state he created Vauthry following the failure of their plans involving Ardbert. (Innocence defeat cutscene)

From what I understand, the Emet-Selch got his 2nd idea for rejoining the First during the black rose factory cutscene (where he tells Varis they might not meet again in this lifetime; where he left for the first).

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Note that Vauthry wasn't actually causing the scales to tip further. He was sitting on his ass and maintaining the status quo.

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Originally Posted by Absimiliard

Note that Vauthry wasn't actually causing the scales to tip further. He was sitting on his ass and maintaining the status quo.

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I might be expressing myself poorly. What I meant was that my reading of the timeline goes as such:

• Mitron and Loghrif tell Cylva to become the Shadowkeeper, and meddle with the First to cause it to come to the brink of a Flood of Light, but no further.
  
• Ardbert spares Cylva, and kills Mitron (and implied Loghrif, although this was only known in Shadowbringers, and not listed in the lorebook).
  
• The First, already on the brink of a Flood of Light, starts going through a true Flood of Light.
  
• Ardbert goes to the Source, and the 3.x MSQ happens.
  
• Ardbert and his crew plus Minfilia return to the First, and stop the Flood of Light from progressing further. This is the point which I believe the First is back to the brink of the Flood of Light.
  
• Sin Eaters start appearing, and the inhabitants of the First fight back, with the primary forces being from Eulmore, backed by the Oracles of Light. This is the point which I believe the First is recovering from the Flood of Light.
  
• Emet-Selch prepares to use Black Rose as a catalyst on the Source. I admit I don't know the relative timeframes of this and the later point, so they might be swapped around.
  
• Emet-Selch goes to Eulmore and sets up Vauthry's reign. When Vauthry takes over rule of Eulmore, he "allies" with Sin Eaters, and stops attacking them. This is the point which I believe the First has stopped recovering from the Flood of Light, and remains on the brink.
  
• Shadowbringers happens.

Hence, Emet-Selch was trying to salvage Mitron and Loghrif's failed plan by turning the situation to his advantage.

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Originally Posted by YianKutku

I might be expressing myself poorly. What I meant was that my reading of the timeline goes as such:

• Mitron and Loghrif tell Cylva to become the Shadowkeeper, and meddle with the First to cause it to come to the brink of a Flood of Light, but no further.
  
• Ardbert spares Cylva, and kills Mitron (and implied Loghrif, although this was only known in Shadowbringers, and not listed in the lorebook).
  
• The First, already on the brink of a Flood of Light, starts going through a true Flood of Light.
  
• Ardbert goes to the Source, and the 3.x MSQ happens.
  
• Ardbert and his crew plus Minfilia return to the First, and stop the Flood of Light from progressing further. This is the point which I believe the First is back to the brink of the Flood of Light.
  
• Sin Eaters start appearing, and the inhabitants of the First fight back, with the primary forces being from Eulmore, backed by the Oracles of Light. This is the point which I believe the First is recovering from the Flood of Light.
  
• Emet-Selch prepares to use Black Rose as a catalyst on the Source. I admit I don't know the relative timeframes of this and the later point, so they might be swapped around.
  
• Emet-Selch goes to Eulmore and sets up Vauthry's reign. When Vauthry takes over rule of Eulmore, he "allies" with Sin Eaters, and stops attacking them. This is the point which I believe the First has stopped recovering from the Flood of Light, and remains on the brink.
  
• Shadowbringers happens.

Hence, Emet-Selch was trying to salvage Mitron and Loghrif's failed plan by turning the situation to his advantage.

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Looks like sound reasoning to me. That pretty much sums it up as far as I understand it as well. We can't really get exact time frames since there's a time differential between the First and the Source that constantly shifts around, so I imagine that is as good a timeline as any.

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Originally Posted by YianKutku

I might be expressing myself poorly. What I meant was that my reading of the timeline goes as such:

• Mitron and Loghrif tell Cylva to become the Shadowkeeper, and meddle with the First to cause it to come to the brink of a Flood of Light, but no further.
  
• Ardbert spares Cylva, and kills Mitron (and implied Loghrif, although this was only known in Shadowbringers, and not listed in the lorebook).
  
• The First, already on the brink of a Flood of Light, starts going through a true Flood of Light.
  
• Ardbert goes to the Source, and the 3.x MSQ happens.
  
• Ardbert and his crew plus Minfilia return to the First, and stop the Flood of Light from progressing further. This is the point which I believe the First is back to the brink of the Flood of Light.
  
• Sin Eaters start appearing, and the inhabitants of the First fight back, with the primary forces being from Eulmore, backed by the Oracles of Light. This is the point which I believe the First is recovering from the Flood of Light.
  
• Emet-Selch prepares to use Black Rose as a catalyst on the Source. I admit I don't know the relative timeframes of this and the later point, so they might be swapped around.
  
• Emet-Selch goes to Eulmore and sets up Vauthry's reign. When Vauthry takes over rule of Eulmore, he "allies" with Sin Eaters, and stops attacking them. This is the point which I believe the First has stopped recovering from the Flood of Light, and remains on the brink.
  
• Shadowbringers happens.

Hence, Emet-Selch was trying to salvage Mitron and Loghrif's failed plan by turning the situation to his advantage.

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The only confusing parts here (to me at least) is that Thancred, Urianger and Y'shtola were taken to the First (4.4 end) before the scene in which Emet decides that Black Rose can be used as a catalyst(4.5 part 1 as far as I remember).... but now I just read it again and you note the possibility. So yeah, the black rose thing should happen after setting up Vauthry, which itself should happen before the end of 4.4

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Originally Posted by MrThinker

The only confusing parts here (to me at least) is that Thancred, Urianger and Y'shtola were taken to the First (4.4 end) before the scene in which Emet decides that Black Rose can be used as a catalyst(4.5 part 1 as far as I remember).... but now I just read it again and you note the possibility. So yeah, the black rose thing should happen after setting up Vauthry, which itself should happen before the end of 4.4

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Ooh, yeah, I forgot about that. So that point should be after Vauthry.

With that, it would seem like Emet-Selch was trying to set up the First to be prepared for a disaster on the Source, before figuring out how to create that Source disaster. Which makes sense, because the shards are one-and-done, while the Source can have several potential setups waiting to be triggered. (Maybe Alexander was one, given Travanchet and the horn.)

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Originally Posted by YianKutku

Ooh, yeah, I forgot about that. So that point should be after Vauthry.

With that, it would seem like Emet-Selch was trying to set up the First to be prepared for a disaster on the Source, before figuring out how to create that Source disaster. Which makes sense, because the shards are one-and-done, while the Source can have several potential setups waiting to be triggered. (Maybe Alexander was one, given Travanchet and the horn.)

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It makes sense, since both Thordan and Alex appeared to be Light-based primals right?

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Originally Posted by MrThinker

It makes sense, since both Thordan and Alex appeared to be Light-based primals right?

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Thordan himself did not appear to have a specific elemental affinity despite having been the totally-not-the-pope of Ishgard beforehand. The Knights of the Round taken as a whole, meanwhile, represent every elemental affinity. Alexander was indisputably light based.