Some Math for Folklore Tomes (long grind is looooooooooooooooooong)

This is based on Mining with 565 Perception (the minimum for HQ Adamantite) and the 2-4-collect 470 rotation. I expect this math translates over to Botany as well, but I haven't tried fishing yet, so don't know if it would translate over. The math also assumes that you only have one DoL at 60 whose tomes you want to buy, and/or that you can only effectively gather from one or the other. This also assumes the time conversion is 3s IRL = 1 min Eoz, which means it's 3 minutes to the hour, and 36 minutes to the twelve hour cycle. This is also going to operate on the assumption that you wait to turn Cuprite in until it's in high demand for 20% more scrips.

Each Tome of Folklore costs 99 of Rowena's Blue Gatherer's (RBG) tokens.

Each RBG token costs 50 Blue Gatherer's Scrips (BGS).

So each Tome of Folklore costs 4,950 BGS.

There are three total tomes for a given DoL, which means we have a total of 14,850 BGS to gather.

Now, the rotation above relies on Impulsive Appraisal, which has a chance at proccing Discerning Eye, which would allow us to use Single Mind to afford another collection attempt: DE-ImA-(DE/SM)-ImA-(DE/SM)-MA - yields 2-4 470c turn-ins per node. Due to the nature of it, and according to the tooltip, you have a 30% chance of proccing on either attempt. Thanks to the other mathematicians in the thread for correcting me here: since it's a 70% chance for either one not to proc, you have a 70%*70% = 49% chance for neither to proc. By the same logic, there is a 30%*30%=9% chance of both proccing. So altogether, that means 49%*2 + (51%-9%)*3 + 9%*4 = 2.6 effective turn-ins per node (eTI/n).

There is another rotation possible which guarantees 3 eTI/n (DE-MA-DE-MA-SM-MA), but it requires a slightly higher perception rating than the 565 threshold, which is only available with food, melding, or higher-level gear than the Blue Scrip set available at 58, all of which can be a substantial Gil sink if you're focusing on scrip gathering and not gathering to sell. Still, I'll do calculations for both, since it is possible some newcomers to the endgame gathering scene may be able to get that high more easily than myself (getting to 565 was a huge chore for me).

There are two paths I see for gathering the necessary scrips: the passive path and the active path.

The Passive Path
In the passive path, the player camps a single node, eliciting 30 seconds of gameplay every 36 minutes to farm their turn-ins, so they can do other stuff at the same time (e.g. work, read a book, sit in class, write forum posts, etc.). For mining, the node with the highest yield is Cuprite, which yields 72 BGS per effective turn-in (BGS/eTI).

Since we need a total of 14,850 BGS, this means we need 14,850 BGS / 72 (BGS/eTI) = 207 eTI.

With 2.6 eTI/n, we can figure out that we'll need to farm 207 eTI / 2.6 (eTI/n) = 79.615 nodes (but we'll round up to make it an even 80 nodes).

With 3 eTI/n, that becomes 207 eTI / 3 (eTI/n) = 69 nodes.

Since nodes spawn every 36 minutes (36 min/n), if you're only camping the one, that will mean 80 n * 36 min/n = 2,880 minutes = 48 hours at 565 perception = 2 days. So if you only farm a single node 24/7, it will take you 2 days total to get all the tomes for a single DoL.

But if you can manage to get that extra perception, it becomes 69 n * 36 min/n = 2,484 minutes = 41:24 hours at higher perception = 1.725 days; which we can round to 2. So a little bit more perception, by whatever means, will shave ten hours off the gathering time required, bringing us back to 2 days total. You'll just be able to sleep for a few hours before the second day is done.

The Active Path
There is a more active approach that can be taken to gathering the scrips, but it involves so much movement that you won't really be able to do anything else in between. This involves flying to both BGS-yielding timed nodes every 36 minutes. For Mining, that means Cuprite (72 BGS) and Red Quartz (54 BGS) for a total of 126 BGS per eTI (excluding Light Kidney Ore (48 BGS), because it shares a node with Cuprite).

Following the above logic, we can figure that it means 126 BGS/eTI * 2.6 eTI/n = 327.6 BGS/n (n in this case representing a node cycle).

Which means 14,850 BGS / 327.6 (BGS/n) = 46n (rounded up from 45.330).

And that translates to real time as 46n * 36 min/n = 1,656 minutes = 27:36 hours at 565 perception = 1.15 days. So it will take two days of cumulative gameplay for a player to buy all of their folklore tomes, if they are playing to maximum efficiency without spending extra Gil.

Calculating, then for the slightly higher perception, we'd get 126 BGS/eTI * 3 eTI/n = 378 BGS/n. That would take 14,850 BGS / 378 (BGS/n) = 40 nodes (up from 39.286), which would take 40n * 36 min/n = 1,440 minutes = 24 hours (one day straight) at higher perception.

Conclusion
This is probably old hat for those of you who got this out of the way early. I'm mostly posting this to get it out of my head, and to give people new to DoL some perspective. 99 RBG tokens sounds like a lot, but when you compare it to some other grinds in the game, it's not as bad as it looks on the surface. Overall it looks like a new-to-60 DoL will need to spend 2-3 days total gathering to get their first set of tomes, unless they have other DoL up, as well.

There is absolutely something to be said for increasing your perception. At 565 perception, Methodical Appraisal only hits for 112 collectability, which means you have to do more work for your collectibles, and are stuck at a lower gathering rate. However, if you can just nudge that up to 113 (with perception food/gear/materia), you gain 25% gathering rate, which can significantly cut down on the duration of the grind.

When you compare it to the DoH progression, it is absolutely a lot slower - I was able to gear up my BSM in BCS gear very quickly, and buy the Master Tome with equal haste. In my mind, the only way for this discrepancy to make sense is if the DoL classes are not going to see any further progression in future patches. Especially when DoH classes rely on DoL Folklore mats, it seems silly to me that DoL would progress so slowly by comparison, unless it was meant to last the whole expansion.

Of course, if they do give us some progression in 3.2 or onward, I hope they also implement some serious buffs to the rate at which BGS can be obtained (or nerfs to item prices). It's a really long grind, and is a huge barrier to entry for new DoLs.

EDIT: BGS are not required for progression, assuming you don't want to pay through the nose on the Market Board. Once you get 565 perception, farming Adamantite Ore for RGS is a piece of cake, and will get you to the weekly cap pretty quickly. BGS is mostly useful to support DoH classes, and to make Gil (since the materials are exclusive to those who have the tomes, and are required for DoH progression).

EDIT 2: It currently takes 26 RRG tokens plus a counterfoil to obtain the MH tool for a DoL. Depending on equipment, this could represent a substantial upgrade to Perception, which could possibly make 450c easier to achieve, and up the rate at which BGS can be obtained. I'll edit this with more details in two weeks once I've gotten my Mining MH, but for now, it seems like that might be a way to boost your BGS income.

EDIT 3: It is possible that with both Botany and Mining, your BGS income could double (assuming their unspoiled nodes aren't up at the same time, and are at least 2 Eorzea hours apart). But if you wanted to get all 12 folklore tomes, you'd also be doubling how much BGS you need, so the two would cancel out, and the time to completion would remain the same.

EDIT 4: Adjusted the math and added a paragraph to the conclusion to match what people have commented. Thanks guys! :D

EDIT 5: I haven't taken statistics in over a decade. Thanks to folks for providing me with the right way to calculate eTI/n when accounting for procs! :D

EDIT 6: Forgetting to stealth before opening an unspoiled node really sucks when there are hostile mobs around.

• Cuprite and Light Kidney Ore share a node, you can't do both.
• Morel (BTN) is a short flight from Cuprite, just enough time between spawns to regain 600 GP.
• You get scrips when you turn in, not when you gather, so wait until it's in bonus to turn Cuprite/Morel in for 72 scrips, not 60. The lower scrip items never go in bonus.
• Your rotation is inferior; triple impulsive will yield about 10% more scrips on average. You will get 2.657 collections per node, and 21.6% of the time will gather stuff worth 86 scrips instead of the 72.
• Add in Abal Mistletoe, and you're over 500 blue scrips per cycle.

edit - there are only 3 folklore tomes per class

Why use Impulsive at all for blue scrips? DE + Meth + DE + Meth + SM + Meth gives you three collects per node at 460 collectability, RNG-free. That beats out all the EVs from Impulsive rotations (even accounting for the potential for higher collectability tiers) unless I'm missing something.

The popular red scrip rotations use Impulsive because 460 doesn't cut it, but the blue scrip items have a lower threshold.

Good points, both! I'll edit the post this evening with revised numbers. Already looking even less bleak, which was the point of this whole exercise. Thanks! :D

EDIT: Latest Cuprite node popped and I tried the DE-MA-DE-MA-SM-MA rotation, and at 565 perception, it only got me to 448c. RNG was kind enough to give me one 450c Cuprite, but the other two were wasted (449c and 448c). As 565 is the floor for endgame gathering (where you can get HQ Adamantite), I'll make a note of that rotation and some accompanying math, but also that it needs a bit more perception than that to be reliable.

I haven't tested the thresholds extensively, but assuming that the effect of perception on collectability is linear until it hits the cap (if Methodical with no buffs gives you 115, you're at the cap) then you'd need about 580 perception if 565 gets you to 448 collectability.

565 is a bit low, but it shouldn't be hard to get that little bit higher. The full set of HQ level 60 white gear with no melds gives 571 perception and 597 GP. You can use food that boosts both (e.g. haddock dip) or some cheap melds to get the rest of the way there.

I find it more interesting to do: red 9, red 11, blue 2, sands until 7 repeat. After capping reds add in the earlier blues if I'm in the mood. Or more sands if I need them

Lol i just did em all asap, i went nuts. I also used 2 DEs and 1 SM to skip rng. Its really not that bad these days since they buffed blue scripts and i dont think hou should complain tbh.

You can easily get over 450 blue scripts every 12 hours and thats almost 10% of a tome already. And if youre smart youll save your morels and cuprite til they are starred(20% more).

Is that perception with or without a food? You don't even need the highest tier perception foods to raise it just a notch to get the required 450 from that de-ma-de-ma-sm-ma rotation. If your single methodical does 113 or more, it's enough for the 450. If you got 448 it means yours does 112. So you likely wear hq crafted 60 set. I used stuffed artechoke which was fairly easy to make. It is enough to take the MA up to 115 which is the cap for collectability effect.

How do you get the 30% for at least three, by the way, on the IA rotation. How I have counted it is that if both IA proc, you get four items, that's 9% chance. If neither of them procs, you get two items, that is 49% chance. A chance to get three items is thus 42% and at three or four (at least three) sums up to 51%. For effective yield it'll be 2.6 which is still worse than the effective yield of 3 from the non IA rotation.

As for gear upgrade, if you do have the full HQ crafted level 60 set, it is enough to upgrade the hat to the red scrip version to get enough perception for MA to hit the 115. That gives the reliable 3 hit rotation for 450 and fairly reliable (65,7%) 3 piece gather for 480 collectables.

Edit
Your math is also wrong for the amount if scrips required. One book costs 4950 scrip, yes, but any DoL has only three books. (9 nine together for all DoL) since you stated your calculation is assuming there is only one art on 60 you'd only be gathering for one role, that is 14850 scrip. Assuming you only gather the 60 scrip ones, you get three of them/12 hours, that is, 180 scrip. You can get more if you turn them in when they are on bonus, but also loose some since sometime the gather fails so I'll keep the assumption on 180 on 12 hours. Double that for one eorzean day and it's 360. That is roughly 41 real life hours. If you also want to get books forother craft, it assumes you also can double the yield (morels and cuprite are 2 hours apart on same zone, rather easy to get them both) it's still 41 hours for 6 books. Yes, this leaves out fishing.

So I've updated the math! Lots of feedback, which helped me iron out the estimates a bit more. It's even shorter than I thought it was going to be, which is actually pretty encouraging; ~52 hours of gathering is actually not that long of a grind, in the scheme of things (especially when compared to something like the Anima weapons).

Regarding gear, I'm a poorer player who is spending his Gil on housing things and leveling DoH jobs because it's easier than farming mats for a few hours, I've currently got a mishmash of 55, 58, and HQ white 60 gear, upgrading as much as I could afford, and focusing on pieces with Perception. Took a lot of energy to get to 565 perception, and I still need to rely on Antelope Stew to get 600GP. I do plan on eventually gearing further, but I'd much prefer not to use Gil to do so.

EDIT: Regarding how I got to 2.39 eTI/n, here's how it works.

The 30% proc rate for each appraisal is independent of the others. There is a total of three appraisals under this rotation. The first can never proc, but appraisals 2 and 3 both have an equal chance at proccing. If either one procs (which will happen 30% of the time if we have faith in RNGesus), then we can say there is a 30% chance of getting at least 3 collects. One proc does not in any way affect the other for this calculation. However, we also need to account for the possibility that they both proc. If the second appraisal procs, there is an independent 30% chance that the next one will proc, as well. So to count for both procs, we have a 30% * 30% = 9% chance. However, since the chance at both proccing requires one proc, the two overlap. So we must calculate the overall total at 70%*2 + 21%*3 + 9%*4 = 2.39 eTI/n.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jpec07

If either one procs (which will happen 30% of the time if we have faith in RNGesus), then we can say there is a 30% chance of getting at least 3 collects.

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You have a 70% chance the first doesn't proc, 70% the 2nd doesn't, for a 49% chance that neither procs and you only get 2.

That leaves 51% chance of getting 3+; 42% for 3 and 9% for 4.

That's 2.6 collects on average.

Well, I'm not usually one to err in math, but I haven't touched statistics in over a decade. That's kind of shocking to realize (I'm an old fart don't judge me).

Anyway, I ran a simulation of 1,000 node attempts in Excel a few times, just to see from hard data, and you guys are right. Oof, let me go update that math again.

Triple Impulsive will still yield you better results than the rotation you are using, and it what you should be using when you start on red scrips as well. It's basically:

Use a Single Mind and two Utmost Cautions, doesn't really matter where in the rotation.
Use 3 Impulsive and a Methodical. Use Discerning Eye before Methodical if none of your Impulsive proc'ed, otherwise use another Single Mind. If your first two Impulsives proc, replace the third with a Methodical (otherwise you get 528, 530 is a tier for red scrips)

An MMO with a long grind, who'd a thunk it?

That said, I've had all the Mining and Botany Folklore books for months now, and my wife has all of them, period. I think we got them done before Red Script even came out.

We'd gather blue script collectables between leveling our crafters and War/Magic classes. Cordials were cheaper back then.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by StouterTaru

You have a 70% chance the first doesn't proc, 70% the 2nd doesn't, for a 49% chance that neither procs and you only get 2.

That leaves 51% chance of getting 3+; 42% for 3 and 9% for 4.

That's 2.6 collects on average.

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Which is exactly what I told him in the first post ^^. Propabilities should generally sum to 100%, if they don't something is wrong. For a serie of individual events that should happen in progression you multiply, you could say that the calculation for three items is 0.7*0.3 + 0.3*0.7, that is, either second d one procs or first one procs but it'd still sum up to 42%.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by StouterTaru

Triple Impulsive will still yield you better results than the rotation you are using, and it what you should be using when you start on red scrips as well. It's basically:

Use a Single Mind and two Utmost Cautions, doesn't really matter where in the rotation.
Use 3 Impulsive and a Methodical. Use Discerning Eye before Methodical if none of your Impulsive proc'ed, otherwise use another Single Mind. If your first two Impulsives proc, replace the third with a Methodical (otherwise you get 528, 530 is a tier for red scrips)

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That is true for red scrips. It's the rotation. I said has 65% chance to get three items. However if none of the IAs proc, you only get two items. Its also too risky to use under 115 MA. Even on 115 MA there is 29,4% chance that you only get 476 from appraisals and need to pray for RNG for collecting them on over 480. Hence for blue scrips it's better to use the one that gives always 3 items.

What I used for red scrips on 112 MA was DE-IA-DE/SM-MA-DE-MA. It has 30% chance for three items, 70% for two. That rotation of course is inferior when getting higher perception.

For the counterfoils, DE-MA-DE-MA-UC-MA-UC-MA. That gives only one click but on lower perception is more reliable than hoping for three consecutive IA procs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sida

Its also too risky to use under 115 MA. Even on 115 MA there is 29,4% chance that you only get 476 from appraisals and need to pray for RNG for collecting them on over 480. Hence for blue scrips it's better to use the one that gives always 3 items.

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Under 113 MA and you will wind up with some of your items being worthless with triple Methodical, which is an issue the OP was having. Triple Impulsive will work down at 109 MA, his rotation works at 108 MA.

So I just did some math regarding the 3ImA+MA rotation, and it actually has ~5% better yield on BGS, to the point where I've actually switched over.

The rotation I was using had 2.6 (eTI/n) * 72 (BGS/eTI) = 187.2 BGS/n

However the rotation that was suggested not only has a higher chance at getting three collects, but also has a chance to have some of those collects give 79 BGS/eTI or even 86 BGS/eTI. I simulated all eight possible outcomes of SM+ImA - UC+ImA - UC+ImA - (DE/SM)+MA, and their probabilities, accounting for procs, and I arrived at an effective yield of 196.407 BGS/n at 565 perception (112 MA).

I'll have to edit the math in the first post this evening.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sida

For the counterfoils, DE-MA-DE-MA-UC-MA-UC-MA. That gives only one click but on lower perception is more reliable than hoping for three consecutive IA procs.

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Or if you're not in a hurry to get the counterfoils, triple Impulsive will occasionally luck out, proc DE multiple times, and get you 3 collects at high enough rarity to use for these. I've never needed to specifically go after counterfoils because of this, just save a few of the high rarity ones for this purpose as you gather for scrips.

Unless my math is off, two IA procs anywhere in the rotation will be enough for the threshold while still getting 3 collects as long as your MA gets 115. You can also convert one proc on the first or second IA by switching to MA after the proc and popping DE for the last one for two collects.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PirateCat

Or if you're not in a hurry to get the counterfoils, triple Impulsive will occasionally luck out, proc DE multiple times, and get you 3 collects at high enough rarity to use for these. I've never needed to specifically go after counterfoils because of this, just save a few of the high rarity ones for this purpose as you gather for scrips.

Unless my math is off, two IA procs anywhere in the rotation will be enough for the threshold while still getting 3 collects as long as your MA gets 115. You can also convert one proc on the first or second IA by switching to MA after the proc and popping DE for the last one for two collects.

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You can alter triple impulsive to get you enough for counterfoils every time once you hit 115 MA.

UC > IA > UC > IA > DE if no procs yet, otherwise SM > IA (MA if first two were procs) > DE if you've only have one so far, otherwise SM > MA

That will get you 1, 2, or 3 counterfoils, based on the number of IA procs you get.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PirateCat

Or if you're not in a hurry to get the counterfoils, triple Impulsive will occasionally luck out, proc DE multiple times, and get you 3 collects at high enough rarity to use for these. I've never needed to specifically go after counterfoils because of this, just save a few of the high rarity ones for this purpose as you gather for scrips.

Unless my math is off, two IA procs anywhere in the rotation will be enough for the threshold while still getting 3 collects as long as your MA gets 115. You can also convert one proc on the first or second IA by switching to MA after the proc and popping DE for the last one for two collects.

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Yes, if you have 115. However that was suggested as succession to the other rotation I said for 112, meant as way to get counter foils when you are not yet geared enough to the 115.

So I tested using leeches for Illuminati perch. It's about 25 tokens per batch of 100 bait (after counting the cost of re-buying it) on bonus day.

For efficiency, ignore all large tugs to avoid hinterlands perch. (The bait's gone either way, and it saves time) Gives you more chances over each patience, and with average luck you should maintain enough GP to powerhook all the right ones. With GOOD luck you will catch a few in a row and run out, needing to RNG any extras on a normal hook.

Should only take about 40 minutes for the batch. Just make sure after the batch to throw a jig in the adjacent hole (the 60 one in the same lake but from the island) for one cast to reset the counter.

Compare that to 36 minutes for a morel/cuprite cycle (granted most of that is AFK time). Big difference here being the bonus days. Morel/cuprite cycle usually requires you to clutter inv with one of the 2 that's non-bonus, and wait for a better day to trade them. Perch you can just fish on bonus day and keep trading as you go.

Last night I started my blue scrips gathering with 35 tokens on me. I logged on at about 7pm RT and during Morel/Cuprite downtime so began fishing for Illuminati Perch using Brute Leeches. Then I get to Morel location right as it pops and gather using the DE>Meth>DE>Meth>SM>Meth>Sharp Vision>collect 3 rotation. This leaves just enough time to get back to 650 GP again about halfway through the Cuprite window which is plenty of time to gather those as well. Same rotation. Then I go back to fishing for IP. By 11pm I had enough tokens for another gathering tome (3 down, 4 to go...2 of the fishing ones are completely useless it seems). All this and a dinner break, chatting with FC, and even forgetting to put on my Collector's Glove a couple of times prior to fishing >.<

And I still have about 270 blue scrips in my pocket. So, my rough guess is about 6 hours per tome. Not too bad really.

Ended up doing some maths and here is few different rotations and how they fare with each other on different levels on Perception. Since I don't know actual relation between Perception and Appraisal, the constant I'll refer will the amount of collectability one Methodical Appraisal (MA) does. I have calculated the expected yield of red and blue scrips based on their normal trade value. The blue scrip yield is calculated for cuprite/morel collectible, and red scrip yield counted for adamantite/chysahl greens collectible. Obviously if they happen to be starred they yield more, that however doesn't matter when comparing rotations between each other. It's also good to remember that the Gathering plays a role here since every gathering attempt can fail. Lastly, all these rotations require 600 GP.

Rotation A:
Three IA and MA, as described earlier in this thread. 34,3% chance for 2 gathering attempts, and otherwise 3 attempts. The collectability value depends a lot of the amount of IAs that proc and can yield better tier rewards, even counterfoil-able ones on MA 112 or higher. (9% chance on 112, 21,6% chance on 114)

Rotation B:
DE IA - DE/SM IA - DE/SM MA
Offers 2-4 gathering attemps with 9% chance for 4, 42% chance for 3 and 49% chance for 2. The value of the collectibles is always the same regardless of the IA procs, they only affect to the amount collected.

Rotation C:
DE MA - DE MA - SM MA
Workhorse. Even on the MA of 115 it doesn't reach to the red scrip levels. However it gives reliable 3 shots for blue scrip gathering.

Expected yields for blue and red scrips
On MA 115
A: Blue scrips 167.196 Red scrips 41.799
B: Blue scrips 156 Red Scrips 39
C: Blue scrips 180 -

On MA 114
A: Blue scrips 164.928 Red scrips 41.043
B: Blue scrips 156 Red Scrips 39
C: Blue scrips 180 -

On MA 113
A: Blue scrips 164.928 Red scrips 27.813
B: Blue scrips 156 Red Scrips 39
C: Blue scrips 180 -

On MA 112
A: Blue scrips 164.928 Red scrips 10.908
B: Blue scrips 156 Red Scrips 39
C: - -