Drop Rates of some items is rediculous!

I have just spent the last week trying to get a single item from Void Ark and it hasnt dropped, NOT ONCE IN A WEEK!

during all my runs i saw enough caster items drop to fully fear a SMN and enough fending gear to fully kit out at least one tank!

even the ninja gear dropped more regularly than any monk item did, and when a monk item dropped, it was almost always the head or feet pieces

this is getting beyond a joke, I have not seen the Void Ark Trousers of Striking drop even once during all my runs in void ark since it came out!

have SE completely screwed the RNG over on this item dropping?

Just bad luck. :( There could be 6 chests per boss per group and you still might not see them after dozens of runs. It doesn't help that you can get two of the same item from one boss either. It took many runs for me to get the casting robe too, but after I got it I started seeing it all of the time.

First of all, "rediculous" isn't a word. Secondly, the R in RNG stands for "random". As in it sucks, but welcome to FFXIV, enjoy your stay. Go after tome gear if you want certainty.

It's pretty standard fare RNG common in every single MMORPG. (This game isn't really all that bad compared to some F2P games in this regard though, honestly.)
Welcome to the genre.

Random is random. Meanwhile, in my VA runs I've seen more Monk gear than anything else and never seen the casting gear at all. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Originally Posted by RubyScarlett

Random is random. (..)

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Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

Each chest has a loot pool and a chance to drop each piece of loot. Yes the same loot can drop in the same run or from the same chest, each time loot is need it selects at random the piece that drops. Just because a piece drops doesn't mean it won't drop again in the same run.

Unlike most other MMOs which used weighted RNG for the drops you'll see (if more people have seen one particular type of drop in a dungeon as a group, it's more likely they'll see different loot the next time), XIV uses an unweighted RNG, which means a 10% drop rate doesn't mean if you run something 10 times you'll see it drop, but that every time you run it the item has a 10% chance to drop. Thinking that running it more often will increase your odds is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.

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Originally Posted by Yukiko

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

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Yeah, exactly. Random is random, meaning the same piece of gear does have a chance of dropping twice, though it's rare.

I've only seen it once or twice since Void Ark was implemented. In my experience, it's usually two different drops per chest.

Just bad luck for you. One time I ran it and all monk gear dropped and in the second to last boss 2 pieces of monk gear that were the same dropped and no monks were even in our group.

Well at least you get double the chance compared to crystal tower. Still waiting for that bard chest piece lol.

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Originally Posted by Ashkendor

In my experience, it's usually two different drops per chest.

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Well today, I had two Void Ark Boots of Healing drop from the 3rd boss so there's that too.

Anecdotal evidence is still anecdotal. Random is random. What you've experienced doesn't make it any more more less random.

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Originally Posted by DragonSlayer45

Well today, I had two Void Ark Boots of Healing drop from the 3rd boss so there's that too.

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And I had 2 Healing Body Armors from the second Boss and 1 Healing Body Armor from 3rd Boss. Next run 2 Tank gloves from the 1st Boss, at that point i have quit Void Ark. Yeah, random is random. You can keep it.

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Originally Posted by Yukiko

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

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Oh, okay. LOL
http://www.reactionface.info/sites/d...8778638428.gif

Let's math this out. (And feel free to correct my math, others out there who are better at this than I am.) In Void Ark, there are a possible 21 items to drop on each boss, according to the loot tables and two chests per boss.

Probability = (# of desirable outcomes)/(# of possible outcomes)
So the probability of a drop is 2/21 (two desirable outcomes out of a possible 21 drops). That means that you have a 4.76% chance to see a specific item of loot drop in a chest.

Odds = (# of desirable outcomes)/(# of undesirable outcomes) So if you are looking for a specific piece of loot, then you have 1 desirable outcome out of a possible 20 outcomes per chest. Odds are seeing the 1 piece you want become 5%

However, the odds of prior drops do not influence the odds of future drops, as someone else linked to know as Gambler's Fallacy. The more you run VA and see other drops happening, doesn't mean that the 1 desirable drop you want is more likely to happen. For example, if you flip a coin you have a 50-50 chance of getting heads and a 50-50 chance of getting tails. If you get 10 heads in a row, that still means that on your next flip the odds are still 50-50. If you see the same loot in a row, or even dropping at the same time, then that doesn't mean that there is anything wrong with RNG. It just means that you're unlucky so far.

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Originally Posted by Yukiko

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

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That's why in real life when I roll two 20 sided die at the same time, I sometimes get the same number on each?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is normal with random being random.

You seemed to have to opposite luck to me. Last week I ran a total of 21 Void Arks. 1 caster chest dropped in all the runs. Didn't manage to win last week so went without loot. Went in today for my upgrade mat and got the chest I was after.

As for the monk trousers, several runs had two dropping, sometimes from the same chest (and usually when there was no monk in the group).

Bad RNG is bad RNG. Not really much else to it.

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Originally Posted by Yukiko

You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

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Quote from a Developer

"We found that this had a lot of problems where players would run into streaks, and they only remembered the shitty streaks. So what we decided to do was we took a page out of ..., which had a very elegant design which they referred to as 'progressive percentages.' ...In ..., every creature that is part of the collection quest has the item 100% of the time, but we do a progressive system where we up the chance the player [gets the item] each time he kills it. The problem was, when we put it live in the beta--and we didn't tell anybody this--we found that while it was great that it got rid of the bad streaks, it also got rid of all the good streaks. And overall we needed to raise the base drop percentage to around 45%"

That tells me very clearly that someone has failed by creating the drop percentage in FFXIV

Last week: I wasted 8hours in total to get my only 1 wished item! >-> DPS-Mage chest piece...
Never saw it!
But in my 3 runs today: 3x that belt, 2x arm, 2x pants, each 1x head/boots! Nice trolling rng I say >_>;


Not gonna do Ark again for gears that never drops! I avoid Ark!

Give us a token system!

Scoundrels! The RNG IS RIGGED! I ran VA once last week with my BRD hoping to pick up any MNK gear for my sub! Last boss dropped MNK chests and pants! Can you believe the RNG!?



<3

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Originally Posted by Yukiko

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

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2 times any gear is still random.

The funny thing is that while I'm fully aware that it's pure RNG and that any combination can happen, right after looking at this thread earlier, I ran Void Ark and the MCH/BRD pants dropped three times in that one run. I'm still convinced that it's not true RNG and that it's actually some evil being hidden in the servers deciding to screw with players in what ever method it finds the most hilarious.....

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Originally Posted by RyuRoots

First of all, "rediculous" isn't a word. Secondly, the R in RNG stands for "random". As in it sucks, but welcome to FFXIV, enjoy your stay. Go after tome gear if you want certainty.

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it should be ridonkulous!
and yes random is random.

I'm late to this party, but I did an Ark run today...and 3, yes THREE MNK pants dropped in the run (two from the same boss!) So yeah...

im having deja vu didn't someone have a similar thread same title 2 weeks ago over void ark healing pants?

I think they was a highlamder male too.

(loopy from cold meds)

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Originally Posted by RubyScarlett

Oh, okay. LOL
Let's math this out. (And feel free to correct my math, others out there who are better at this than I am.) In Void Ark, there are a possible 21 items to drop on each boss, according to the loot tables and two chests per boss.

Probability = (# of desirable outcomes)/(# of possible outcomes)
So the probability of a drop is 2/21 (two desirable outcomes out of a possible 21 drops). That means that you have a 4.76% chance to see a specific item of loot drop in a chest.

Odds = (# of desirable outcomes)/(# of undesirable outcomes) So if you are looking for a specific piece of loot, then you have 1 desirable outcome out of a possible 20 outcomes per chest. Odds are seeing the 1 piece you want become 5%

However, the odds of prior drops do not influence the odds of future drops, as someone else linked to know as Gambler's Fallacy. The more you run VA and see other drops happening, doesn't mean that the 1 desirable drop you want is more likely to happen. For example, if you flip a coin you have a 50-50 chance of getting heads and a 50-50 chance of getting tails. If you get 10 heads in a row, that still means that on your next flip the odds are still 50-50. If you see the same loot in a row, or even dropping at the same time, then that doesn't mean that there is anything wrong with RNG. It just means that you're unlucky so far.

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I am not sure to understand your computation. I agree that each boss has 21 possible drops, but the number of desirable outcomes is 1 if you aim to get a particular piece (even though there are two independent drops) or 2 if you aim to get a piece among 2 (for instance healer's and caster's bodies). To see that your formula is incorrect, imagine that each chest had 22 drops instead of 2, you would have a strictly greater than 1 probability.

Each piece can drop from two bosses (A and B) and each boss's chest has two drops (which can be the same), let's say A1/A2 and B1/B2. The probability of not seeing a particular piece is that the outcomes of A1, A2, B1 and B2 are not this piece, hence (20/21)^4. Therefore, the probability of seeing it at least once is 1-(20/21)^4 which is roughly 0.1773.

If someone aims to get any of two pieces for a same role, then it gets more complicated depending whether this two pieces can drop from a same boss or not. Let's assume one wants the healer's body or the healer's legs. Legs drop from the 2d boss (outcomes B1, B2) and the last boss (outcomes D1, D2). Bodies drop from the 3rd boss (outcomes C1, C2) and the last boss (outcomes D1, D2). If we expect not to see any of these pieces then the probability is (20/21)^4 (20/21 for B1, B2, C1, C2) times (19/21)^2 (19/21 for D1, D2). Therefore the probability of seeing at least one of these piece is 1-(19/21)^2*(20/21)^4 which is roughly 0.3265.
Finally, if both pieces do not drop from the same bosses, let's say healer's head (1st and 2d boss so outcomes A1, A2, B1, B2) and healer's chest (outcomes C1, C2, D1, D2), then the probability of seeing at least one of these pieces drop is 1-(20/21)^8=0.3232.

Cheers.

I know RNG is RNG but I've still only ever seen three ranged items drop in the new dungeons.... sigh

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Originally Posted by Gamer3427

The funny thing is that while I'm fully aware that it's pure RNG and that any combination can happen, right after looking at this thread earlier, I ran Void Ark and the MCH/BRD pants dropped three times in that one run. I'm still convinced that it's not true RNG and that it's actually some evil being hidden in the servers deciding to screw with players in what ever method it finds the most hilarious.....

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While its true that a PRNG (pseudo random number generator) isnt the best generator for "randomness" (because patterns repeating based on used seed length - depending on used algorithm) the Problem we actually see must not be the roll from the generator. If you develop "randomness" and try to weight them (lets say: if 2 piece in same chest drop, just reroll second one) it can be the source of problem too (if the ruleset you are using to frame the generator does not work correct). Same as we are having a server<->client network and because of security the server is rolling the numbers. Thats also why you have not only "your" try alone because the pattern from PRNG effects the future rolls. When there is only one RNG rolling for the whole server that means you have a very high number of "rolls" which makes the odds appear more often because "your" rolls are no longer in the "first pattern" (lets say your first roll is in patternA then others are rolling and patternA is full, opening patternB and now you roll again -> there is a possibility that you pinpoint the exact location again with your roll). We are not having a "real life" randomness, we are having a programmed one that is using an algorithm.

We have 2 different ways to program RNGs:
1) RNG algorithm that are made for high numbers (Millions and more)
2) RNG algorithm that are made for low numbers (dice rolls)

The Problem you have with games, special with Massively Multiplayer games is that the playernumber is mostly high but you need to roll low numbers (1-20).
The chance to drop twice is not the problem we "see", it is the repeated sight of such odds that makes it strange! Furthermore, we have to face lags (and other server<->client issues) which can cause errors in RNG rolls too!

1st year collage programmer can program you a better RNG. It must not be a TRNG (true random number generator) but to have some sort of frame (or lets say a fail safe system) is common in modern programming. To believe solely on the algorithm alone is just careless but thats what we are having (pure RNG).

Because the limitations of an PRNG it also is an issue when you stack RNG on top of an RNG (lets say you do not like the outcome and let the same RNG roll again - that does not work, just test it if you are programmer). To solve that problem you have to use some deeper programming and "change" something (example: change the seed - lets say you use the outcome as new source for the rerolling)

http://wasdarwinwrong.com/images/464988a-i1.0.jpg
http://www.nerfnow.com/img/1059/1682/large.jpg
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/random_number.png

I have 4/5 pieces of the healer set already, I've done no more than 3 void ark runs a week. It's total RNG luck and I got lucky with these.

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Originally Posted by Yukiko

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

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You know, once i rolled two 6's playing monopoly. And then... it happened a second time in the same game. Ridiculous, Monopoly's rng is broken.

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The funny thing is that while I'm fully aware that it's pure RNG and that any combination can happen, right after looking at this thread earlier, I ran Void Ark and the MCH/BRD pants dropped three times in that one run. I'm still convinced that it's not true RNG and that it's actually some evil being hidden in the servers deciding to screw with players in what ever method it finds the most hilarious.....

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We've noticed when they removed the gear drop limitation from coil in 2.0 is that we would get a large number from one item per floor in any given week (the item changing every week). Which makes me think the odds of getting any particular item change every lockout (maybe the probability of getting any particular item change every week depending on how many items of that sort dropped the previous week).

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You know, once i rolled two 6's playing monopoly. And then... it happened a second time in the same game. Ridicolous, Monopoly's rng is broken.

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Except I've never ran a void ark without having at least one chest dropping twice the same piece of gear. Who knows : maybe there is trully something fishy with the drop rates (that wouldn't be the first time, it has been proven that DRG gear was dropping more than intended at the beginning of 2.0 in Bcoil).

I like Void Ark.. You shouldn't do it so much. Try Diadem... You get better gear and RNG is so much better in there.........

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Originally Posted by Neophyte

You know, once i rolled two 6's playing monopoly. And then... it happened a second time in the same game. Ridiculous, Monopoly's rng is broken.

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anecdotal evidence.
pics or it didn't happen

In so far as we know, the drop rate is equal for every item from a particular chest. Somewhere on the game, there's another player that's seen nothing but the piece you want and not one of the one *they* want.

The RNG should even out in the macro sense when you consider there are thousands of rolls going on all across all the various worlds.

want to know how to get it to drop 100% guaranteed roll on another item then you will always see it :D i got the heal chest on this weeks lot by bad timing (just after the reset maintenance started just after reset D: ) and now i have done void ark 4 times and i have seen the chest piece of striking at least 10 times now >.<

Rule #1 in every MMORPG: If you want something really really hard, it will not drop.

Two sets of those dropped on my run yesterday lol.

It took my wife 9 runs last week to see a BRD item

I've yet to see the healer body drop.

But last night I did a perfect set of penta melds for someone. Success on the first try on a 14% chance?!

RNG is RNG. We tend to remember the times we get screwed over more often than the times it runs in our favor.

And nothing will ever top my 1/57 attempts for the Moldavite Earring in FFXI. It supposedly had a 25% drop rate.