Drop Rates of some items is rediculous!

[AhzekAhriman]

I have just spent the last week trying to get a single item from Void Ark and it hasnt dropped, NOT ONCE IN A WEEK!

during all my runs i saw enough caster items drop to fully fear a SMN and enough fending gear to fully kit out at least one tank!

even the ninja gear dropped more regularly than any monk item did, and when a monk item dropped, it was almost always the head or feet pieces

this is getting beyond a joke, I have not seen the Void Ark Trousers of Striking drop even once during all my runs in void ark since it came out!

have SE completely screwed the RNG over on this item dropping?

[Aethaeryn]

Just bad luck. There could be 6 chests per boss per group and you still might not see them after dozens of runs. It doesn't help that you can get two of the same item from one boss either. It took many runs for me to get the casting robe too, but after I got it I started seeing it all of the time.

[RyuRoots]

First of all, "rediculous" isn't a word. Secondly, the R in RNG stands for "random". As in it sucks, but welcome to FFXIV, enjoy your stay. Go after tome gear if you want certainty.

[hagare]

First of all, "rediculous" isn't a word. Secondly, the R in RNG stands for "random". As in it sucks, but welcome to FFXIV, enjoy your stay. Go after tome gear if you want certainty.

it should be ridonkulous!
and yes random is random.

[CGMidlander]

It's pretty standard fare RNG common in every single MMORPG. (This game isn't really all that bad compared to some F2P games in this regard though, honestly.)
Welcome to the genre.

[RubyScarlett]

Random is random. Meanwhile, in my VA runs I've seen more Monk gear than anything else and never seen the casting gear at all. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Yukiko]

Random is random. (..)

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

[Ashkendor]

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

Yeah, exactly. Random is random, meaning the same piece of gear does have a chance of dropping twice, though it's rare.

I've only seen it once or twice since Void Ark was implemented. In my experience, it's usually two different drops per chest.

[DragonSlayer45]

In my experience, it's usually two different drops per chest.

Well today, I had two Void Ark Boots of Healing drop from the 3rd boss so there's that too.

[RubyScarlett]

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

Oh, okay. LOL


Let's math this out. (And feel free to correct my math, others out there who are better at this than I am.) In Void Ark, there are a possible 21 items to drop on each boss, according to the loot tables and two chests per boss.

Probability = (# of desirable outcomes)/(# of possible outcomes)
So the probability of a drop is 2/21 (two desirable outcomes out of a possible 21 drops). That means that you have a 4.76% chance to see a specific item of loot drop in a chest.

Odds = (# of desirable outcomes)/(# of undesirable outcomes) So if you are looking for a specific piece of loot, then you have 1 desirable outcome out of a possible 20 outcomes per chest. Odds are seeing the 1 piece you want become 5%

However, the odds of prior drops do not influence the odds of future drops, as someone else linked to know as Gambler's Fallacy. The more you run VA and see other drops happening, doesn't mean that the 1 desirable drop you want is more likely to happen. For example, if you flip a coin you have a 50-50 chance of getting heads and a 50-50 chance of getting tails. If you get 10 heads in a row, that still means that on your next flip the odds are still 50-50. If you see the same loot in a row, or even dropping at the same time, then that doesn't mean that there is anything wrong with RNG. It just means that you're unlucky so far.