Anyone good at math?

I'm curious. What are the odds of failing 3 70% chance hasty touch out of 7, before failing a 90% reclaim?

Edit: on a scale of good to bad maybe?

If my high school math teacher taught me correctly then the math should be a simple (1-0.7)*(3/7)*(1-0.9) which adds up to an approximate 1.3% chance of these events occurring. Not very likely but it's more likely to happen than your 1% Quality HQs.

(Maybe my math teacher didn't teach me right though :p)

It may be even lower than that. We can look at it in three parts:

1. Fail 3 Hasty Touches: .3 * .3 * .3 = .027

AND

2. Pass 4 Hasty Touches: .7 * .7 * .7 * .7 = .2401

AND

3. Fail Reclaim: .1

Combining all of those gives .027 * .2401 * .1 = .065% (Unless you're me, that is. I'd fail at least 6 more often than not, probably. -.-)

I've found that the odds of that happening are about 85-90%.

I would say that is a 0.064827%...

I'll blame the hour if I failed, but I don't think so XD

Anyway, is not that low.

For instance, the chances of someone winning the national UK lotery playing with one number seems to be around 0.00000715112% , wich is about 9065 times more probable.

Odds = [3/7 tries failed @ 70%] * [1/1 tries failed @ 90%]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

P(x) = [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)] * [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)]

P(x) = [7C3 * (0.3)^3 * (0.70)^4] * [1C1 * (0.1)^1 * (0.9)^0]

P(x) = [35 * 0.027 * 0.2401] * [1 * 0.1 * 1]

P(x) = 0.2258945 * 0.1

P(x) = 0.02258945

23% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches
2.3% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches and a Reclaim.

(I think ♪)


Edit:
7C3 = Number of different combinations you can fail 3 out of 7 attempts. Example:

Fail, Fail, Fail, Win, Win, Win, Win
Fail, Fail, Win, Fail, Win, Win, Win
Etc. = 35

1C1 = Number of different combinations you can fail 1 out of 1 attempt.
Fail. = 1

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Galactimus

Odds = [3/7 tries failed @ 70%] * [1/1 tries failed @ 90%]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

P(x) = [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)] * [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)]

P(x) = [7C3 * (0.3)^3 * (0.70)^4] * [1C1 * (0.1)^1 * (0.9)^0]

P(x) = [35 * 0.027 * 0.2401] * [1 * 0.1 * 1]

P(x) = 0.2258945 * 0.1

P(x) = 0.02258945

23% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches
2.3% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches and a Reclaim.

(I think ♪)


Edit:
7C3 = Number of different combinations you can fail 3 out of 7 attempts. Example:

Fail, Fail, Fail, Win, Win, Win, Win
Fail, Fail, Win, Fail, Win, Win, Win
Etc. = 35

1C1 = Number of different combinations you can fail 1 out of 1 attempt.
Fail. = 1

---

thanks for having this at the end, with what all the others had written, i felt like i had to say it :P Its almost 7 am, i should get to bed ...

We joke in my LS and FC about this. "There is RNG and then there is SE RNG. Either way both are painful."

Thank you for teaching us basic math ,^^;; Feel so dumb. There's the answer!

Well by my math there's about a 22.7% chance of missing exactly 3/7 at 70%, and a 35.3% chance of missing at least 3/7. Then a 10% chance of failing reclaim, so it's roughly a 3.53% chance of failing at least 3 hasties and a reclaim.

You really need to rework your rotation if you are crafting something worth enough to consider using reclaim.

The crafting formula is actually quite simple. You only need to add together the percentage chance of success and the percentage chance of failure to arrive at the percentage chance for total frustration.

If its an important or costly synthesis my rng calculator came out at 9001% chance. If your synthesizing something worth hardly anything you should get hq at 1%. Yo, you can trust me on this.

In the world of FFXIV if its not 100% then it might as well be 1%.

If its not 100% there is always a chance of failure.

The more you want it to work, the more likely you are to think 70% really means 10% success rate. and that 1% actually means .01.

It doesn't work the other way around unless you're an Ork sadly.

I blame the hour! XD



I haven't done much crafting, just one class to level 50, but as far as I remember, 97% usually ment about 5% success ratio...

The way i figured, the odds are 30% on all 7 hasty touch. so it would be 1/3 * 7 so about 2.333 fails on average. Random is random and sometimes it is more, sometimes it is less.

Reclaim would fail once every 10 uses on average. Seperate karma.

I got over myself and i finished my HQ set.

random is random, but each one of us is special and have speacially remarking bad luck.

As the loot is also random, but most raid groups in Coil 1 got a lot of meele gear while casters didn't saw a single piece....XD

Anyone ever notice how some games seem to change on the percents? I mean back in the final fantasy tactics 60% of hitting and you still seem to hit quite often, yet in a game where you would gladly gamble on a 80%, even a 90% here scares me when I miss several desynths or gathers in a row. I mean I can't be the only one who seems to notice it right? I mean going back to a Tactics, even the 25% chance to break the enemy armor or weapon seemed impossible but yet it hit more often than I can remember (without ninja perks :P)

TC, why did you not use Steady Hand 2 on those Hasty Touches?

50% base chance of success. 70% chance of success with Steady Hand. 80% chance of success with Steady Hand 2.

I didn't check. i'm using steady hand 2.

So 1/5*7 means i would miss 1 + 2/5 per craft or 7 per 5 crafts.