Alexander token loot system using DF. How does it compare to COIL loot system. Math?

I know I saw a post yesterday about the loot system for Alexander being horrible and a lot of comments in support and against the OP's thoughts. However, I wanted to ask if someone has done the calculations on old and new looting system COIL vs Alex.

I haven't taken statistics for many years, so there's probably someone that can do the calculations faster and more accurately than me (Maybe it's already been done?). I'm also not taking into account some things like time (people won't need certain pieces on upcoming weeks) and that not everyone will be optimal gearing (they may not think about it and just loot whatever they can). I may also be missing some key information here that someone could include in their data.

So, anyone have some calculations they would like to share to show if the loot system is worse, same, or better than before? (Not just talk, but actual numbers.)

Looking quickly at loot lists, here is what I found.
(Note: The numbers are going to be different when in a static. This post is more for DF.)

COIL:
Picked a random turn (turn11). Has 18 pieces and 2 can drop per run (Ignoring mats). So at there is a 1/9 chance the item will drop. (There may be more than one person wanting that gear as well, but for now we will assume they don't.)

Alexander:
Let's take A1 (floor 1). Has 3 items and 2 can drop per run. Let's consider worst possible scenario. Let's say everyone is going for optimal looting choice to gear their character fully in week 5. This means that most people would want 1 of the 3 pieces and to scrap the others. This in effect gives a 2/3 pieces drop with 8 people lotting on that 1 item if that is one of the one's that dropped.

So far, I've gotten 2 loot pieces, and a token towards my chest piece.

Now, if you're really lucky, in coil you can get up to 4 pieces in the first week (that you clear everything). As a healer, that wouldn't happen in practice because I would be sharing with the other healer, but it could happen for like a MNK or DRG or something.

In practice, it wasn't uncommon to get nothing in the first week of coil. In your calculations, don't forget that Alex can be run until everyone gets something; Coil could not.

All in all I'm pretty happy.

I'm good with it. Makes you decide what you want to lot for. Do you go for head or hands? Lens drops from a2 and a3. Do you go for most 190 pieces per week, that would mean you want bolts most of the time. The shaft only drops from A4, so if you want chest, its a 4 week farm. I do like that you can just do it till you get what you want, and the pool isn't so vast that you may never see it. Like with T10..19 drops for example...I know some people who still never saw the Tank boots after a hundred runs. With this. You get 2 pedals. you got boots. At most two weeks, or you can get two pedals from two floors, and get it same week. Just prioritize what you want and need first. Some pieces will take 4 weeks like chest, Legs minimum two weeks. The rest of the pieces can be done in a week with options for multiple loot per week. Like I got Head piece and two accessories yesterday.

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Originally Posted by Brundlefly

Looking quickly at loot lists, here is what I found.
(Note: The numbers are going to be different when in a static. This post is more for DF.)

COIL:
Picked a random turn (turn11). Has 18 pieces and 2 can drop per run (Ignoring mats). So at there is a 1/9 chance the item will drop. (There may be more than one person wanting that gear as well, but for now we will assume they don't.)

Alexander:
Let's take A1 (floor 1). Has 3 items and 2 can drop per run. Let's consider worst possible scenario. Let's say everyone is going for optimal looting choice to gear their character fully in week 5. This means that most people would want 1 of the 3 pieces and to scrap the others. This in effect gives a 2/3 pieces drop with 8 people lotting on that 1 item if that is one of the one's that dropped.

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You need to take into account that the same item can drop multiples in alexander. For example, both drops from floor 1 can be for the waist slot. The math is the same either way because the chance is there for all items but I just thought I would throw it out there because you mentioned scrapping items.

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Originally Posted by DoctorPepper

You need to take into account that the same item can drop multiples in alexander. For example you both drops from floor 1 can be for the waist slot.

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Oh thanks, I didn't even think about that or notice it during my runs yesterday.

It's difficult to determine the actual percentages of obtaining loot because the variable of who is rolling on what items changes from party to party. All you can determine as a definite value would be the chance that something you want will drop.

Basically the chance to see an item you want drop increases by a significant amount but the chance to actually obtain the item will vary from party to party based on loot preferences.

As far as I can tell, if 3 other players specifically want the loot you want and nothing else then your chances are the same as coil. If more than that want the same specific item as you then your chances are lower.

The other factor to consider however is that if you're willing to roll on any of the available loot that drops rather than a specific piece, you will have a slightly higher chance to obtain loot than you did before in coil picking specific items or jobs. If some people in the party are passing specific items then your chance will increase further by rolling on anything that drops.

...But the odds are better, cause multiples of the same thing can drop. Like in A4 last night, two shafts dropped same run

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Originally Posted by Bojobear

...But the odds are better, cause multiples of the same thing can drop. Like in A4 last night, two shafts dropped same run

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On the other side of the coin, there is also a chance that 2 of the same thing that you don't want can drop as well, 1/3 is the same as 2/6.

One thing I wasn't taking into consideration as well is that you need multiple items to get a piece of gear. That decreases the odds of actually getting a piece of equipment as well since you have to win 2-4 times instead of a single time.

You know what Iam fine running Alexander a few times to get the tokens I can trade in for the gear that I WANT, opposed to ONE CHANCE a week for the 10000th ninja chest in a row.

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Originally Posted by Bojobear

...But the odds are better, cause multiples of the same thing can drop. Like in A4 last night, two shafts dropped same run

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Well, RNG...
A friend wanted a spring on F4. He did it 10 times in a row, and did not see even one. At the same time, my group dropped 6 springs in 4 runs.
RNG...

For me this is definitely better than before. But I can see getting the items you want outside of a static group can be tricky (people in PF will leave once they got their items, and you have to fight against potentially 7 other people in DF).

I think a system a la 3.0 EX primals would have been better.

i really dislike it

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Originally Posted by EdgeFayth

Well, RNG...
A friend wanted a spring on F4. He did it 10 times in a row, and did not see even one. At the same time, my group dropped 6 springs in 4 runs.
RNG...

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That's exactly why I hate this loot system!!! Did 9 runs and don't even get one loot. Farming again and again to see newcomers roll for the first time and get the loot you're here for since hours... NOT FAIR.

I started farming alexander floors when i had 80 tomes left from my last purchase for the ilvl minimum.

I've done nothing but alexander for a day, and I'm at 1420 tomes.

Loot actually won: 1 spring for floor 4. Yesterday.

Mind you, we get 20 per clear, and an extra 40 for newcomers. I got 1340 tomes in intervals of 20 and fking 60.

Everyone being your competition is stupid.

at 1500 now

This new system is hard to say right now but my initial thoughts are:
since they are tokens...anyone running that Floor must need one of them so your chances of having something only you can roll on are almost non-existent now.
your only hope is that everyone is going for the other two pieces and not yours. I have been lucky and got all four of my tokens for the week but I can see having to run this a ton...that would fit how they want the content attacked...should always have lots of people in the DF for it.

I'd call this loot system an easy way to make players sick of the content from how much people have to run it for a 12.5% chance to actually win something at worst.

Should be at least 3-4 tokens a kill so i could see 2 or 3 bolts/lenses drop at a time. That way even if I lose one, that's one less player able to roll on the second.


Thanks to weekly lockouts on loot, you're not going to get people who can't roll on anything queing up to do the floor for the hell of it. They're gone for the week once they get their drop, and another thirsty freshface takes that place in the DF.

As it is now, it's not ideal I think. If 3 or 4 tokens dropped it would be much improved. You can only get one per floor anyway, but it would help relieve those who get stuck with horrible rng.

I mean, it's still better than before in the sense that you're not locked out once you've cleared it, but it does lead to a lot of grinding.

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Originally Posted by Namida-Hikari

newcomers roll for the first time and get the loot you're here for since hours... NOT FAIR.

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This is entirely fair and the only fair way, for PUGs. If you want a system that takes into consideration your total time invested, you need a static. DF frees you from the burdens of a static but in exchange it treats everyone equally.

i keep saying it over and over on topics with the alex loot
but something similar to ravana and bismarck would of been cool, 1 random loot and 1 token loot, that way if your lucky your lucky if not well then you have a chance
and do what coils did if you go in with people who have cleared you can only go for the token (at least for now while its new)

Given that token drops are independant of each other and thus can roll the exact same result, the odds of seeing token a, with illustration of possible combos...
-1/9 (11%) chance of two of a given token dropping (a+a)
-4/9 (44%) chance of one of a given token dropping (a+b, a+c, b+a, c+a)
-4/9 (44%) chance of none of a given token dropping (b+b, c+c, b+c, c+b)
In other words, there's a 55% (well 55.55555...%) chance to see the token drop at all; with a higher total 'payout'. The simple form is - as you might expect - that there's an average of 2 of each token per 3 runs. But still, just over half chance of any given run having the token in question.

The bigger, more difficult to calculate comparison is on how many people are now going to be competing for that. In a worst case scenario, you can divide the majority of that by 8 if everyone is competing over the exact same token drop and only that token drop (Most likely to happen in Floor 4 with Armor tokens); even on a double case drop there's only about a 1/4 chance you get one of them.

So if you take those rates and divide them appropriately (44%/8 + 11%/4), in a worst case scenario of everyone seeking the exact same token, you have about an 8% chance of any given run ending in you, specifically getting that drop. However, that is a worst case scenario - the odds go up quickly for every player not competing against you for that specific drop. That 8% is an absolute minimum.

For the sake of comparison, the drop rate of a desired piece of gear in the Final Coil of Bahamut is anywhere from 7% to 14% depending on which turn and coffer it is (Most are 10-11%) at best, before calculating any player competition over a drop for whatever reason - these percentages are a maximum. This is also ignoring the previous raid format of drops being limited per week.

In other words, with a minimum to maximum range based on number of players also seeking that drop, the chances of you getting the loot you are after on any given run:
-In Alexander: 8%-55%
-In Coil: 1%-14%

Looks like normal alex still promotes statics as you dont need to worry about losing a roll because your group will run it till everyone got their token for the week.

Well weekly lockouts without actually receiving anything are excessively stupid so I don't really see a point in paying attention to that aspect.

IMO - I've done a lot of runs and gotten basically nothing. Without a static it's going to take a lot of hours every week to get the required tokens. Especially F4 where everything except chest tokens basically falls to the floor.

When you do get something it's not even exciting - in most cases you're not actually getting a piece for 2-4 weeks.

It's like receiving a savings bond instead of a birthday present.

I think the big thing right now is the fact that it is week one.

Currently everyone run every turn is rolling on nearly every piece. Next week everyone should have close to 4/5 of the 20 pieces they need and there will be fewer parties where 8 people roll need on both drops.

Currently everyone has a 12.5% chance of getting a piece per successful run and a ~4.16% chance of getting the specific piece they are looking for.

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Originally Posted by Ultimatecalibur

Currently everyone has a 12.5% chance of getting a piece per successful run and a ~4.16% chance of getting the specific piece they are looking for.

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That's a pretty significant simplification that's also very wrong.

If you're to assume what you did - that you have a full group of everyone rolling on every token regardless (which will almost never happen), you have a 1/8th chance followed by a 1/7th chance for the remaining token, which functions as a 25% chance. And that's an at worst; if you're willing to accept anything, but there's other party members who aren't rolling on every piece for whatever reason (Already have drop, seeking specific drop), those rates go up.

If you're seeking a specific piece, I did the math back on page two, and in an absolutely worst case scenario (Everyone is seeking the exact same drop as you and only that drop), you have an 8% chance of any given run ending in you getting what you're after, or a 55% at highest if there is no competition whatsoever.

Gah, Garlyle, I missed your previous post and I feel like an idiot. Thanks for pointing out my very stupid and amateur statistics mistake.

The main point I was trying to make is that those everyone rolls numbers are the norm right now because very few running Alexander right now are going to opt out on most of the pieces.

My math shows PLDs and MNKs clearing t13 in full Ironworks because they didn't have any other option

The only thing worse than the Coil drop system was getting nothing at all

Oh...

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Originally Posted by Ultimatecalibur

The main point I was trying to make is that those everyone rolls numbers are the norm right now because very few running Alexander right now are going to opt out on most of the pieces.

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I'd question that assumption. Now that we know the drop tables, and know things like "Only Floor 4 is capable of dropping Armor Tokens" and other parts of the distribution, I think a lot of players are already narrowing in on which pieces they need from which floor in order to complete a set ASAP (Ideally arranged you can have a full set after 5 weeks); or are prioritizing parts to be as strong as possible for Alexander (Savage), etc etc

Or there's just specific parts they want for glamour. ...You get the idea.

Though I don't doubt there'll always be some players who just roll on whatever and are happy with whatever too, and there's definitely plenty that will be doing that at first, so yeah, it's all a variable range based on situation.

I think that token from alexander should be guaranteed after you clear floor. I dont see a point to farm it or clear it more than once a week. Its just midless to hope for some RNG luck to win token against 7 others. Its also boring and non challenging to do those fights more than once a week.

I agree with Lunna, you should be rewarded for each turn by a token. That's all. You still need to farm around 15 tokens to get the whole stuff you need, sounds like enough farm for me. If they really wanted to add RNG to that, the RNG could be in what kind of token loot when you complete a turn but when the turn is completed, everyone should get the token. There is no use to add some more RNG to that...