Crafting RNG can make you dance as well :)

Hi all,

I know that crafting the items needed to unlock 4 Star recipes can be very frustrating, but RNG can also work in your favour. During one of my recent live streams, I was crafting Rich Tomato Relish to unlock my Culinarian recipes. I found myself in a situation where I had 52% chance to HQ, but needed to use Rapid Synthesis without Steady Hand 2 to have enough progress to finish the craft. I was able to succeed the craft, and it also HQ'd so I just had to dance to celebrate. I captured the highlight here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rb6Y9X2Fbt0

I wanted to share it to give people hope that it does work out as long as you don't give up. :D

~ Mithrie

I hq'd something at 1% once, I failed to hq someting at 98% once, yeah I definitely didn't dance

You're just too lucky! <.<

Just as with your master demimaterias... >.>

You should see the luck my FC leader has.

99% - NQ
1% - HQ

And this happens to him all the time. >_>

I HQ onefo them at 31% lol... and it was an excelet without sh ><

Yeah RNG is fun. I've had a 5% HQ and a 92% NQ. I am happy I am through it this time at least. :D

3% HQ? HQ HQ HQ HQ HQ
98% HQ? NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ

I've NQ'd three things in a row at 96%. After that I've stopped caring about crafting. No point investing time into a system that's going to prevent you from accomplishing anything.

They can keep every lucky sub-20% success, I'd rather stop failing at 80%+.

In FFXIV I usually look at the number and subtract 20% ~ 30% just to try to tone down my expectations.

• Steady Hand II + Hasty Touch should be 80% success rate, yet I often fail 3 out of 4 times.

• Desynthesizing Artisan Spectacles at 48% success rate and failing 13 out of 15 times.

• 98% chance of gathering item and failing 2 times in a row.

It's probably a bit of perception bias ... but RNG can still be so disheartening. ><;

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Syrellaris

98% chance to get HQ ore

---

o.o how the heck did you get 98% chance of HQ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Squintina

o.o how the heck did you get 98% chance of HQ?

---

Because I wasn't thinking straight. its 5 am here. post made no sense, so ive deleted it. time for bed for me!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Limecat

They can keep every lucky sub-20% success, I'd rather stop failing at 80%+.

---

It's not 100%. You can always think that in 5 tries, you should fail one of them, that is if it really is 80%.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sounders

It's not 100%. You can always think that in 5 tries, you should fail one of them, that is if it really is 80%.

---

On average. People always forget that bit when talking about statistics like this. You can fail 1000 times in a row on a 99.9% chance of success, but if those are your only failures out of 1,000,000 attempts, then it's still .1% of your total attempts, and thus averages out. Because the probability of an event occurring is non-indicative of an event occurring or not as it's pretty clear the RNG keeps trials isolated when determining success or failure (or HQ or NQ).

I do feel its somewhat scripted into the game. Like how often have you had a 90%+ HQ on an Ixali beast tribe quest for it only to NQ. I wonder if in those crafts they are trying to push people towards the 100% instead. Either way, I find it fun, because I've had a lot more times when RNG's worked in my favour rather than not. Other day for fun I made another Calibrated Rose Gold Cog just to show my friend its possible to HQ, and it HQ'd with only 18% chance. I think I might of damaged my friendship with that one given he had it fail about 50 times a row regardless of % achieved. :p

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Velox

I've NQ'd three things in a row at 96%. After that I've stopped caring about crafting. No point investing time into a system that's going to prevent you from accomplishing anything.

---

Same, but moreso due to the Xpac being so close and giving a soft reset on crafting.

I was making 5 nq Concentrated spirits of Salt for my Paracelsus Supra, and one hq'd at 1%, so yeah, luck is luck is luck lol...

I wonder if the percentages displayed are not fully reflective (maybe they are representative for level and gear but don't represent the affects of some kind of hidden variable like weather or some other influence). If the percentage chances for success are supposed to be correct then I don't see how the RNG in this game is random. I've worked in statistics all my life and I see way too many streaks and unlikely occurrences for this game to be using pseudo random numbers if the percentages are supposed to be reflective of your actual chance at success.

I fully believe they use a nondeterministic generator, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that they 'weight' the results in some way to achieve cycles or streaks in some fashion. That would definitely add more drama to the game :)