Thanks SE. . .

Champion's Lance

R50 CRP

Gear:

Velveteen Wedge Cap (Black)
Velveteen Doublet Vest (Black)
Velveteen Sarouel (Black)
Velveteen Shortgloves (Black)
Canvas Half Apron (Black)
Toadskin Crackows (Black) +1
Iron Chocobotail Saw +2
Steel Claw Hammer +1
4x Vitality Rings

On guild Support.

Skills used:

Perfection.
Assemble.

1st synth:

Basilisk Whetstone +1
Bloody lance Head
Iron Spear Clasp +2
Iron Lance Butt
Void Glue +1
Wolf Leather Strap +2
Mahogany Spear Shaft +1

Perfectly good synth progress.
No unstable harnesses.

Ended with 134 Quality / 109 Durability
about 6~7 touche ups.

Result: NQ

2nd Synth:

Basilisk Whetstone +1
Bloody lance Head
Iron Spear Clasp +2
Iron Lance Butt
Void Glue
Wolf Leather Strap +1
Mahogany Spear Shaft

Good synth progress.
1 unstable harness.

Ended with 146 Quality / 89 Durability
about 5~6 touche ups.

Result: NQ

Thanks.

Your quality wasn't high enough, obviously. When grinding out HQ cotton yarn, I've rarely achieved anything higher than NQ with less than 200 quality. Again, it can happen, but not as often. My suggestion:

1) use +3 mats when possible. if +3 is too expensive or unavailable, use +2. Going back to grinding cotton yarn, if I want HQ, I never use NQ or +1 cotton bolls.

2) Adjust your stats a bit more to complement which tool you are using. You are using vit rings, so I'm assuming that you are using your main hand. Increase your Vit stat. If it's already pretty high (around or between 100-120), go back to step 1

I HQ R50 gear with all NQ mats...
Same gear on me same setup same skills.
Also don't compare HQing mats or parts (no touche up option) with finished items (touche up option)
+3 mats?
Basilisk Whetstone
Bloody lance Head
Iron Spear Clasp
Iron Lance Butt
Void Glue
Wolf Leather Strap
Mahogany Spear Shaft

+1 is really hard to make for each one of the above. this isn't Jade Crook.

No real explenation about this event really.
Just lol and smash a couple of things u dont need that lay around the room.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by YuriSan

I HQ R50 gear with all NQ mats...
Same gear on me same setup same skills.
Also don't compare HQing mats or parts (no touche up option) with finished items (touche up option)
+3 mats?
Basilisk Whetstone
Bloody lance Head
Iron Spear Clasp
Iron Lance Butt
Void Glue
Wolf Leather Strap
Mahogany Spear Shaft

+1 is really hard to make for each one of the above. this isn't Jade Crook.

No real explenation about this event really.
Just lol and smash a couple of things u dont need that lay around the room.

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while the +3 mats may seem impossible, they will greatly increase your chances of getting a HQ result. Again, with such low quality, your HQ chances are very very small. You, being a r50 CRP, already know this and I'm probably stating the obvious, but eh....the higher the quality the mats = the higher your starting quality = the higher the ending quality = the higher chance of HQ result

HQed stuff with 70 Quallity and not HQed stuff with 489 quallity.

146 is not bad at all for a R50+ synth.

This isn't a definite or proven forumla, but this is how I think of it to allow me to rationalise HQ results.

Take the last digit off your quality number. Consider that your percentage chance for HQ triggering. Thus 100 quality > 10% chance of HQ, 500 quality > 50% chance of HQ. Each touch up gives you a chance to take the HQ one stage further.

So in general, the higher your quality, the greater likelihood of something going HQ both when you complete progress and with each touch-up.

Thus I can rationalize getting HQ on a 15 quality item.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by YuriSan

I HQ R50 gear with all NQ mats...
Same gear on me same setup same skills.
Also don't compare HQing mats or parts (no touche up option) with finished items (touche up option)
+3 mats?
Basilisk Whetstone
Bloody lance Head
Iron Spear Clasp
Iron Lance Butt
Void Glue
Wolf Leather Strap
Mahogany Spear Shaft

+1 is really hard to make for each one of the above. this isn't Jade Crook.

No real explenation about this event really.
Just lol and smash a couple of things u dont need that lay around the room.

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its not hard at all to HQ those mats, in the exception of a bloody lance head since its a drop =p. Hqing materials/parts just takes alot of patience and alot of luck. you wanna hear a complaint? i used a
Whetstone +2
void glue +3
spear clasp +3
Wolf strap +2
Spear shaft +2
and an Nq bloody lance head

Ended with 120 dura 275 quality and i had 10 touch-ups the 10th touch up was 20 dura left and it was still NQ i was so angry that i said to hell with it HW or bust and went for one more touch-up. Last touch up went 1dura left and finally went +1
Hqing stuff is 1part skill 9 parts luck

Quote:

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Originally Posted by longtallsally

Hqing stuff is 1part skill 9 parts luck

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^^^ This is so damn true, it gets a little frustrating some times. Had a batch of R50 MRD axes made up. Had 280ish finished quality on them (think we made a batch of 5 or so) and 2x went +1. Then the we did a batch of lances which went 160ish quality and +2'ed. HQing is all about quantity over quality unfortunately, lending itself to being a gamblecraft more then a tradecraft.

I'd put your HQ+1 rate at about 30% for that quality assuming 4 touchup attempts for a quality of 140. Nothing you can do equip or not do to change that.
Chane of HQ2 is about 3% by my guess.

So 2 NQs is well within expected outcome.

I love all these 30% numbers and such people give when in reality its more more 5-7% at that quality

it really isnt that big of a chance until you get way higher up and even then its not great

If it's 5-7% for you, you're doing it wrong.
I'm 3/14 on aeolian +1s with average quality of 110.
HQ rate of garnet rings with average quality of 150 is above 30%, N of 50.
The same result for +1 tools. I can make anyone a +1 tool or weapon on the spot pretty much. Just give me enough for 5 or 6 tries and it's almost guaranteed.

I don't pump str or dex, I just don't baw and moan and think my life is so terrible when I NQ. When you actually record it instead of subjectively estimate it, it's not horrible really.

HQ2 rate would be about 3% for this. If your HQ1 rate is 5%, you're not doing something right.

Truth is, no one knows that TRUE % or algorithm SE uses for what has a chance to HQ at what quality.

I've got a running log of quality with HQ result for iron nuggets with a N of over 300 now, and there still isn't very much of a definite answer compared to what we already subjectively know (don't expect a N+1 quality, and a N+2 quality is impossible where N is the hundreds digit of the final quality). When I run a statistical analysis on the results, it pretty much confirms what we all know. The HQ rate is dependent on quality, but it is so loose that it's pretty much a crapshoot spam fest. I can tell you what you WON'T get. I can't ever tell you what you will get.

That is a R50 synth. maybe higher.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TheVedis

I love all these 30% numbers and such people give when in reality its more more 5-7% at that quality

it really isnt that big of a chance until you get way higher up and even then its not great

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Reality is that chance of +1 caps at about 200 quality, and more quality only raises the odds of +2 or +3. Each of the chances are sigmoidal curves that start their inflections at different qualities and cap at different absolute rates. That's why most of your results at 500+ quality are still NQ.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Peregrine

Reality is that chance of +1 caps at about 200 quality, and more quality only raises the odds of +2 or +3. Each of the chances are sigmoidal curves that start their inflections at different qualities and cap at different absolute rates. That's why most of your results at 500+ quality are still NQ.

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basically it right here. From my experience, 1-99Q chance for +1, 100-199 chance for +1-2, 200+ quality chance for +1-3 As ive never made a +2 item with anything less than 100, never made a +3 with less than 200, but have made them with the stated values. As to the % chance it increases as you get on your knees and pray as you hit touch-up

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Peregrine

If it's 5-7% for you, you're doing it wrong.
I'm 3/14 on aeolian +1s with average quality of 110.
HQ rate of garnet rings with average quality of 150 is above 30%, N of 50.
The same result for +1 tools. I can make anyone a +1 tool or weapon on the spot pretty much. Just give me enough for 5 or 6 tries and it's almost guaranteed.

I don't pump str or dex, I just don't baw and moan and think my life is so terrible when I NQ. When you actually record it instead of subjectively estimate it, it's not horrible really.

HQ2 rate would be about 3% for this. If your HQ1 rate is 5%, you're not doing something right.

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Its 5-7% per touch-up. Your HQ rate sounds about right given the fact that you are using touch-ups.

Honestly, I've found that for high rank synths its best to start with HQ materials and then not even worry about bolding during the synth, in an attempt to retain as much durability as possible for more touch-ups.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sigmakan

Its 5-7% per touch-up. Your HQ rate sounds about right given the fact that you are using touch-ups.

Honestly, I've found that for high rank synths its best to start with HQ materials and then not even worry about bolding during the synth, in an attempt to retain as much durability as possible for more touch-ups.

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I figure if I haven't gotten my result by the third touchup, the odds of it happening by the 6th are slim to none, so I bold R50's as much as I can while retaining about 60 durability for touching. The sigmoidal curves are tightest at 50, 150, and 250inflection points it seems, so 80 is huge compared to 30 for chance of +1, 180 is huge compared to 130 in regard to +2, 280 is huge compared to 230 in regard to +3.

I'm not convinced touchup is a static reroll of the chances, so I don't save as much as i can.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Peregrine

I figure if I haven't gotten my result by the third touchup, the odds of it happening by the 6th are slim to none, so I bold R50's as much as I can while retaining about 60 durability for touching. The sigmoidal curves are tightest at 50, 150, and 250inflection points it seems, so 80 is huge compared to 30 for chance of +1, 180 is huge compared to 130 in regard to +2, 280 is huge compared to 230 in regard to +3.

I'm not convinced touchup is a static reroll of the chances, so I don't save as much as i can.

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That's interesting to hear. I've always believed that it is infact a static reroll. Would have to collect a lot of data to prove either way.

Yeah it's very tough to say. The math involved to rigorously prove it is also quite complex, because you see more first touchups than 6 touchups, AND you stop touching up if you get certain qualities given certain remainders, AND once you hit a certain result that result locks in. most people who would go about trying to prove it would miss major design flaws.

So players do a lot of things to confound the answer.

For high-quality, the need for 2 more bolds is piddlydink, so yeah get to the end asap, but if it's the difference between 85 quality and 100 dura or 107 quality and 65 dura, I'd go with the latter.

low quality mats. I got someone to produce 2 mosshorn scalemail +1 but my mats were as follow:

Diremite Sinew Cord +3
Soot Black Buffalo leather +2
Peiste Leather +3
Iron plate +2
Iron buckle +2
Coal tar +3
Algoat horn +3
Mossy horn NQ

If you want hq stuff you got to work for it ;)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Peregrine

I'd put your HQ+1 rate at about 30% for that quality assuming 4 touchup attempts for a quality of 140. Nothing you can do equip or not do to change that.
Chane of HQ2 is about 3% by my guess.

So 2 NQs is well within expected outcome.

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Today i HQed Jade Hora +1 with 2 toucheups at 78 Quallity... only had 48 Dura when Synth finished.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by YuriSan

Today i HQed Jade Hora +1 with 2 toucheups at 78 Quallity... only had 48 Dura when Synth finished.

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Well within expected outcome as well. With a N of 1 synth, your odds of HQ'ing a jade hora with 78 quality is about 1 in 8 with 3 or 4 touchups.

So you had a 12.5% chance of HQ'ing at 78 quality, and they had a 70% chance of NQ'ing at 140 quality.

61% chance that you both NQ.
26% chance that they HQ and you NQ, in agreement with your quality.
9% chance that you HQ and they NQ, in spite your all's quality.
4% chance you both HQ.

Your situation had a 9% chance of happening when combined with theirs, and you're just one test. So this is an easily achievable result from a non-random selection of forum posters.

It's just the breaks. Nothing wrong with it, but what we figure it should be like.

That "Expected Outcome" seems really Vast!

Hmm... i read about all these % and such... . . . .
Where do u get all those % and also seem so sure about it really?
What is ur source of info?
Weird.

I can't read this, but you may find the graph useful:

http://lodestone.finalfantasyxiv.com...entry?e=164505

Quote:

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Originally Posted by YuriSan

That "Expected Outcome" seems really Vast!

Hmm... i read about all these % and such... . . . .
Where do u get all those % and also seem so sure about it really?
What is ur source of info?
Weird.

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Extensive attempts at HQ'ing gemmed rings on GSM, about 200 rings. I'm a miner. Gems ain't nothin.
Also, making HQ tools and weapons for a very large shell. I've made multiple HQ's of every bsm-made tool and weapon possible, including 3 Aeolian +1s.

I'll try get that into english thanks!

Yeah, I don't know the exact scenario is, but the sample size is definitely good and the numbers jive with what I've seen when grinding wands and getting between 100-200 quality.