Gathering success rates broken?

Hey, guys. Does anyone else feel like the % displayed are false/wrong? I've been logging for about 30min now and I've failed atleast once on every node so far. Farming at an 83% rate seems like you'd miss once every fourth tree or so but it happens WAY TOO OFTEN. Even when farming at +10% bonus, i'll miss atleast once and it's even happened where I miss twice in a row. The math just doesn't make sense. Maybe i'm just noticing it more cause it's bugging the shit out of me. It reminds me of the FFXI melee formula where you always had a 5% chance to miss no matter how high your accuracy stat was.

I went afk on this gathering +10% node to write this thread. When I continued logging; Miss -> HQ log -> miss -> log. !?!?!?!?!??!!?!?!?!?!

I had the same feeling the days after the patch.

Sometimes I got like 4 times HQ Item on one node. even with buff, at 30% to gain 4 times HQ of 4 strokes is like unbelievable. On the other hand, even with a gathering %age of 97% i found myself sometimes to miss twice or thrice in a row.

As for crafting its the same. 10% to fail, and I failed 5 of 6 times. I guess the math is off somewhere and that there is always a randome number that is generated per node or craft and not everytime you use a skill or attempt to craft. This would make a lot more sense to me, if you have a bad number per node and therefore miss always at this node or get all HQ. Also would explain why sometime a craft seems to be impossible, even if its just a 10% fail rate.

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Originally Posted by DukeBurden

Hey, guys. Does anyone else feel like the % displayed are false/wrong? I've been logging for about 30min now and I've failed atleast once on every node so far. Farming at an 83% rate seems like you'd miss once every fourth tree or so but it happens WAY TOO OFTEN. Even when farming at +10% bonus, i'll miss atleast once and it's even happened where I miss twice in a row. The math just doesn't make sense. Maybe i'm just noticing it more cause it's bugging the shit out of me. It reminds me of the FFXI melee formula where you always had a 5% chance to miss no matter how high your accuracy stat was.

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Once every 4th tre would be 94% asuming you dont have good enough gear to get the boni of the nodes. This thread read like I harvested 85 nodes in a row with sucess but dont lets talk about that thats normal with 85% chance. But then I missed 15 nodes in a row - That just cant be it.

i'm gonna quote someone else on this...

"maths in reality is never certain, and reality certainly isn't maths"

i'm sorry you are frustrated but that's statistics for you. with a large enough sample size the results will normalise.

I wonder if it's going off your current achievement. I'm currently working on Logging in the hours: Black Shroud for 2,000 logs. I guess out of 2,000 logs my miss rate would definetly be higher.

I just wonder if SE logged all these attempts and compared the numbers whether it really would come out even? Still, the biggest issue is when the RNG gets stuck on a certain result. We all give examples of outlier results; 14 HQ hits at 15%, 5 misses at 98%, etc. These things _do_ happen. They just shouldn't be happening as frequently as they do. I fear for the patch when the RNG gets replaced and we see what bugs crop up from the change -_-

I have been tracking this in a spreadsheet and it seems likely that the algorithms they use may be slightly off from what is displayed on the screen. I am going to keep tracking for a larger sample size.

What I've noticed after doing a LOT of mining and gathering is that if your success rate on those nodes is >95%, then for each stack of 99 normal quality items you will usually end up with around 15 high quality items. This is without using skills to increase your HQ chance. If you almost have a stack of 99 but don't yet have 15 HQ, then you tend to get several HQ harvests in a row. Seems the game keeps track of the items in your inventory (or maybe I'm just imagining this stuff).

The above also applies to items dropped from mobs also. For each stack of 99 NQ, you will usually end up with about 15 HQ.

This all happens because you all haven't sacrificed a lalafell to the RNG god of gathering. I still need to look for a lala myself. /hidesbehindbush

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Originally Posted by Itchyness

This all happens because you all haven't sacrificed a lalafell to the RNG god of gathering. I still need to look for a lala myself. /hidesbehindbush

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What if I am a lala? Do I need to sacrifice myself?

On a more serious note though, I have felt like the numbers have gotten a bit screwy. I think I had like 10 misses in a row with a 80+% success rate once. I rarely get 4 hits in a row from a single node now. Even if I buff myself, my numbers get boosted a bit but I'm still missing a whole lot. I swear I was getting better results before the patch happened.

I should've took a picture. I've missed all four times at 98% once, then did it again two times on the next tree. Grrrr. :p

80% and 4 misses on 4 attempts
91%, 15% HQ, 3 HQ and 1 miss.

Yeah, it is broken

jc

Yup. It's a bit weird. I find that I have a lower success rate if I actually use a gathering percentage increase buff than if I don't. It's hard to really say since I'm not keeping track of it. For all I know it could be in my head. But that's what it FEELS like. Even with 80% success rate, I miss at least once per node most of the time. It's not unusual to miss 2 per node either. Buff up to 95% and I end up missing 3 in a row. This happens a lot. Strangely enough though, it doesn't bother me too much.

Not broken. Its probability. As explained in an long earlier thread the percentages are for EACH try not grouped so 90% does not translate to 1 miss in 10. It translates to 10% fail EACH try. So based on probability, 10 misses in 10 tries, even with a 99% success rate showing, is in line. Its not what want to hear but because of the way it works its possible. Knowing this I just ignore it and keep pounding:)

Yesterday I went 0/4 on a 82%. And I've good gear at 32. So I definitely think something's not quite right.

I have learned that as long as I do not have a 100% chance, one of my harvesting attempts is reliably going to fail lol. When there is an extra item or harvest attempt bonus, I can be sure to fail two times in case my chance is below 100%.

But on the other hand, I sometimes get 100% HQ although the chance is 15% so this kinda makes up for it.

^^^^^^^
And this in fact reinforces the probability mathematics. In crafting you see this constantly. One time you will have 98% and fail and next 23% and create a HQ item. Nothing is broken its just the way probability works. Like someone said "sacrifice a Lalafell". It may not actually change anything but it gives you that sense that you can maybe change the outcome when it works. Being native american I have been asked if the rain dance works which I answer well of course it does. They danced till it rained. Sometimes hours, sometimes weeks but it always rained because they didn't stop till it did and it gave the feeling of some control:) So quick sweating it, and dance till it rains:p

Some maths: 85% chance to get item, 15% chance to miss:
now you say you miss 5 times in a row? oh thats a % of: 0.15 * 0.15 * 0.15 * 0.15 * 0.15 = 0.15^5 = 0.0000759375 = 0.00759375%
-> 10000:76 (so out of 10,000 ppl who gather 5 times in a row, 76 ppl get all 5 misses)

or another example: 85% for NQ / 15% for HQ
feeling unlucky? ok gathering 10 times and only getting NQ? 0.85^10 = 0.19687440434072265625 = 19.69 % yep that's a lot

is it fair? kinda, cause everybody has the same chances. but i know how frustrating it can be

ok 1 more example: 90% to get item, 10% to miss. so out of 10 attempts to get 9 items and 1 miss (so you fulfill the average). You think it's a very high chance? It's the highest of all other possibilities: 0.9^9 + 0.1^1 = 0.49 = 49%

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Originally Posted by Lstkaws

I have been tracking this in a spreadsheet and it seems likely that the algorithms they use may be slightly off from what is displayed on the screen. I am going to keep tracking for a larger sample size.

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THIS.

Talking about one node is beyond simply an inadequate sample size. Its almost a joke. For instance I have had 0 HQs at a 30% HQ rate, and 50% at a 15% node. No I don't do spreadsheets but I believe in the long run it will even out.

Almost every other post in this thread is basically "curse you RNG."

My best run so far has been 33 HQ mythril ores to 19 NQ ores, with 13 failures on 65 attempts (15 nodes) at 81%/15% base chance, and one 5-hit node for all 5 HQ Black Alumen at 15%. My worst run was 0 HQ fire rocks to 26 NQ rocks with no failures on 26 attempts (6 nodes) at 100%/25% HQ (had bonus HQ up for every node), and one 4-hit node at 94% getting 0 hits.

After farming Flax exhaustively, however, I have to say that SE's RNG is scarily accurate. In the short term there are all sorts of wonky results, but over time the good runs and the bad runs even out to an almost perfectly even percentage. Even scarier, one flax run I made to gather over 600 flax and the 16% average HQ rate (including the 10% HQ buff whenever available) stayed with me for every 100 flax without variation.