Island Sanctuary supply dramatically shifting in the background

So for my workshop, I was trying to schedule crafts yesterday based on supply being low and popularity being high, but I log in today and all of the items now have Surplus supply, making me scratch my head quite a bit. For example, I queued up mostly Marine merch items yesterday for today's crafts based because they've been low supply all week, but when I log in today the squid inks and coral rings are surplus in supply... :confused: They just plummeted in Demand Shift on their own, making this really difficult to work with.

Anyone else experience the same thing, or have any tips?

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Originally Posted by DarkCobalt

So for my workshop, I was trying to schedule crafts yesterday based on supply being low and popularity being high, but I log in today and all of the items now have Surplus supply, making me scratch my head quite a bit. For example, I queued up mostly Marine merch items yesterday for today's crafts based because they've been low supply all week, but when I log in today the grilled clams and coral rings are surplus in supply... :confused: They just plummeted in Demand Shift on their own, making this really difficult to work with.

Anyone else experience the same thing, or have any tips?

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Try relog or reenter to your island. I had that problem as well and it's fixed to sufficient :)

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Originally Posted by Knot_D

Try relog or reenter to your island. I had that problem as well and it's fixed to sufficient :)

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I tried relogging/reentering, it doesn't change anything. Items are still surplus. I changed the crafts to items that are sufficient in supply and high demand, but that's still not going to give many cowries.

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Originally Posted by DarkCobalt

I tried relogging/reentering, it doesn't change anything. Items are still surplus. I changed the crafts to items that are sufficient in supply and high demand, but that's still not going to give many cowries.

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I'm using insufficient and trying to get efficiency bonuses personally. Efficiency bonuses come by scheduling similar category items in the same column.

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Originally Posted by LaylaTsarra

I'm using insufficient and trying to get efficiency bonuses personally. Efficiency bonuses come by scheduling similar category items in the same column.

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Yeah I do that. What I was referring to was the fact that on a day-to-day basis, the supply stat seems to shift randomly in the background. I wasn't referring to efficiency bonuses.

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Originally Posted by DarkCobalt

Yeah I do that. What I was referring to was the fact that on a day-to-day basis, the supply stat seems to shift randomly in the background. I wasn't referring to efficiency bonuses.

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Supply of an item changes after that item being crafted successfully, and has a hard-shift on daily reset.

I'm not at the place where i'm ready to hard test stuff myself

and considering that i'm well behind other ppl on the content the answers will probably already be out there if and when I decide to look stuff up

So far here are my observations across my 8 characters

Supply has a "default" value that it changes to each week for all characters at weekly reset
Supply changes independently on each character during the week based on what they craft during the week so by the end of the week they can each have different Supply stats for items
The Supply I end at each week has no bearing on what Supply changes to at next weeks weekly reset
I could be overflowing on an item I crafted a bunch of at the end of the week and at reset it shifts down to Sufficient
I also observed items with nonexistent supplies shift up to Sufficient despite me crafting zero of that item during the prior week

Predicted Demand is a hard indicator of next week's Popularity
It just slides over and replaces popularity and each character has the exact same changes to Popularity each week regardless of ending Supply


So the big question then is what does the Demand Shift field actually tell us?
Since it doesn't seem to actually have any bearing on Predicted Demand my current working theory is it is telling us 'How many of an item we can craft before the current Supply of that item changes in the current week'

I don't have hard numbers obviously but I imagine if something has "Plummeting" Demand Shift then each craft would increase the current Supply for the week regardless of Popularity since "the item isn't being purchased as much since demand is down"

So say if you have an item with Very High Popularity and a starting Supply of Insufficient but Demand Shift is Plummetting
my current theory is that each craft of that item would tick up Supply by 1 so within 3 crafts of that item it'd become Overflowing supply which kills the value of that item for the week
so with that example if I wanted to make some decent profit from that item I wouldn't want to craft it more than twice during that week and ideally after Groove was higher


but like I said that's my current working theory based on my own observations and I wouldn't be surprised if there are hard answers out there already with enough searching

I mean, that's Market with Supply and Demand - people saw that those were in high demand, so everyone produced them and boom, supply far over demand, so they plummeted.

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Originally Posted by Momo_Kozuki

Supply of an item changes after that item being crafted successfully, and has a hard-shift on daily reset.

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The issue is that I have crafted none of these items this week, yet they soared in supply. I have no idea why this is occurring, and I was trying to plan my crafts around having never touched these items in the first couple of days. My guess is that it is indeed influenced by other players, or some other background shift.

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Originally Posted by RicaRuin

I mean, that's Market with Supply and Demand - people saw that those were in high demand, so everyone produced them and boom, supply far over demand, so they plummeted.

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If that was indeed the case, I haven't yet found any UI that tells me what other people are crafting, just the aftermath. This seems like a design deficiency in that regard. I just wish we had any explanation of how the supply shift worked.