Anyone good at math?

I'm curious. What are the odds of failing 3 70% chance hasty touch out of 7, before failing a 90% reclaim?

Edit: on a scale of good to bad maybe?

If my high school math teacher taught me correctly then the math should be a simple (1-0.7)*(3/7)*(1-0.9) which adds up to an approximate 1.3% chance of these events occurring. Not very likely but it's more likely to happen than your 1% Quality HQs.

(Maybe my math teacher didn't teach me right though :p)

It may be even lower than that. We can look at it in three parts:

1. Fail 3 Hasty Touches: .3 * .3 * .3 = .027

AND

2. Pass 4 Hasty Touches: .7 * .7 * .7 * .7 = .2401

AND

3. Fail Reclaim: .1

Combining all of those gives .027 * .2401 * .1 = .065% (Unless you're me, that is. I'd fail at least 6 more often than not, probably. -.-)

I've found that the odds of that happening are about 85-90%.

I would say that is a 0.064827%...

I'll blame the hour if I failed, but I don't think so XD

Anyway, is not that low.

For instance, the chances of someone winning the national UK lotery playing with one number seems to be around 0.00000715112% , wich is about 9065 times more probable.

Odds = [3/7 tries failed @ 70%] * [1/1 tries failed @ 90%]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

P(x) = [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)] * [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)]

P(x) = [7C3 * (0.3)^3 * (0.70)^4] * [1C1 * (0.1)^1 * (0.9)^0]

P(x) = [35 * 0.027 * 0.2401] * [1 * 0.1 * 1]

P(x) = 0.2258945 * 0.1

P(x) = 0.02258945

23% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches
2.3% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches and a Reclaim.

(I think ♪)


Edit:
7C3 = Number of different combinations you can fail 3 out of 7 attempts. Example:

Fail, Fail, Fail, Win, Win, Win, Win
Fail, Fail, Win, Fail, Win, Win, Win
Etc. = 35

1C1 = Number of different combinations you can fail 1 out of 1 attempt.
Fail. = 1

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Galactimus

Odds = [3/7 tries failed @ 70%] * [1/1 tries failed @ 90%]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

P(x) = [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)] * [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)]

P(x) = [7C3 * (0.3)^3 * (0.70)^4] * [1C1 * (0.1)^1 * (0.9)^0]

P(x) = [35 * 0.027 * 0.2401] * [1 * 0.1 * 1]

P(x) = 0.2258945 * 0.1

P(x) = 0.02258945

23% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches
2.3% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches and a Reclaim.

(I think ♪)


Edit:
7C3 = Number of different combinations you can fail 3 out of 7 attempts. Example:

Fail, Fail, Fail, Win, Win, Win, Win
Fail, Fail, Win, Fail, Win, Win, Win
Etc. = 35

1C1 = Number of different combinations you can fail 1 out of 1 attempt.
Fail. = 1

---

thanks for having this at the end, with what all the others had written, i felt like i had to say it :P Its almost 7 am, i should get to bed ...

We joke in my LS and FC about this. "There is RNG and then there is SE RNG. Either way both are painful."

Thank you for teaching us basic math ,^^;; Feel so dumb. There's the answer!

Well by my math there's about a 22.7% chance of missing exactly 3/7 at 70%, and a 35.3% chance of missing at least 3/7. Then a 10% chance of failing reclaim, so it's roughly a 3.53% chance of failing at least 3 hasties and a reclaim.

You really need to rework your rotation if you are crafting something worth enough to consider using reclaim.