How naive can you be? Just because they say that doesn't mean it's true. Have you even wondered why they haven't showed ANY gameplay videos yet? Screenshots? information?Quote:
Originally Posted by RiseAgainst
They are just holding the fans/stock investors by a leash. SE knows the backlash that would ensue if they ever said otherwise.
And linking to ign.com automatically invalids any arguments you make.
Good time to buy stock in Square-Enix?
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08-04-2012, 10:03 AMNeomarl
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08-04-2012, 10:12 AMNefarioCall
1984
/10char -
08-04-2012, 10:31 AMSuzakuCMXStop fucking replying to Neomarl. Goddamn. There's like 8 different threads where people keep saying not to. Neomarl is obviously a troll so stop replying.Quote:
Originally Posted by NefarioCall
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08-04-2012, 11:02 AMAntipika
Stock market thread on the English XIV forums started by a XIV-fan... lol. Players should know their place. When you don't know anything about stock market, don't start suggesting stupid investment ideas.
The stock value of SE is not only determined by the performance of the company itself. The global conjecture of Japan's economy is just as important if not more important. Same goes for USD/JPY ~ EUR/JPY ~ GBP/JPY. And finally the whole industry sector.
Some players think that stock exchange is as easy as "betting" (sorry I hate using this term when talking about stocks) on the success of a title/product. Sorry but it's not.
I'm far from being expert, but you don't need to actually be very knowledgeable to understand that any investment idea coming from a random player on a game's forum shouldn't be followed. This thread should even be closed because some naive people may start losing real money by trying to perform things they do not fully understand.
Also OP, at least if you want to look at little serious, start giving stock price in the native currency of the market where the stock in listed, talking about SE shares in USD is just plain wrong.
More like 2:1 stupidity.Quote:
That's a 2:1 investment
Also : "Search thread" + "dividend" = 0 result found. Yeah 7 pages and no one even mention something as basic as that...
http://imageshack.us/a/img24/5553/13...2038521323.jpg
Well not everyone but certain posts are just hilarious. -
08-04-2012, 11:13 AMNefarioCall^^That's certainly not my intention. I doubt that a lot of people here work with stocks for a living.. but that's not what i'm getting at. it's not meant to be some fantastic genius. Instead of writing the drawn out wordyness of my OP i simply could have written the following:Quote:
Originally Posted by Antipika
SE stock will eventually be notably higher than it is right now, even if it falls a bit farther first.
The chances that it will eventually (and within a 5 year window) be notably higher than it is right now are very very good.
...or can you give us good reason to understand that the current value is as high as it will ever be in the next 5 years? -
08-04-2012, 11:22 AMXangeekhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkZvdT3QS4kQuote:
Originally Posted by Neomarl
Yes it is IGN but it is an official video and yes it is a little old (what info isn't going to be re:FFXIII Vs) but it shows gameplay including battle and general gameplay. Thanks for playing.
edit: Skip to 3:00 if you want. -
08-04-2012, 11:25 AMAntipika
A good reason is : Investment isn't about guessing and "betting" on products. Investment is a full time job, that requires a lot of skill, time, patience, money and dedication to be fully understood and be profitable in the long run.
One does not make profits just by looking at couple of charts, read a wiki and decide that "it's a good time to buy because according to my non existing trading knowledge, I determined that it was a good time to buy".
This process is how tons of small retails investors using online brokerage services lose their savings every day.
There is no such thing as a good "2:1 investment" that's safe. It doesn't exist, it will never exist. If anyone can just double their investment like that, you would already have the biggest investment banks of the world buying SE shares.... and that's not happening now. Your bank is only giving you a 2~4% (gross) interest rate on your savings for a reason. Getting more without taking risks isn't possible.
Lol even Greece could start investing in SE then! "2:1 investment" will solve their financial crisis!
Sorry if I sound annoying, but I think it is always good to stress this message especially to audiences that are complete beginners in stocks exchange. Stay away from that unless you know what you are doing.
If you want to start taking interest in market and shares; pick something "local" you can try to understand. Square Enix is not the way to start for a beginner.
- On top on following SE share, you will have to get knowledgeable in FOREX since exchange rate will have a major impact on your profits and on the price of the share.
- Not speaking Japanese makes it simply impossible to follow and understand the Japanese market and how SE is behaving within that very market.
- Square Enix holding is big and too diversified. (They're not only making games). It means that you will need knowledge in different kind of market sectors.
- Square Enix is an international company and that's make it also very hard to understand since what is happening in the US or Europe can have an impact on the share...
If I could predict the future and could predict a fall of the Square Enix share, I would just short it and make profits as well. But well, I don't.Quote:
...or can you give us good reason to understand that the current value is as high as it will ever be in the next 5 years?
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08-04-2012, 12:04 PMNefarioCallI agree, but at the risk of sounding arrogant, i think the complexity of the whole thing is widely blown out of proportion to provide a bit of 'upperclassmanship'. I know my musical theory inside and out, but i still purposely got 49% on it in my university course. Music is music. To otherwise define it is to kill it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Antipika
Now, if someone wants to put every cent they own into stocks of a company and they lose it all and end up on the street, i think that's a terrible thing, but the general foolishness of that i think ... is not a matter of 'stock knowledge'. Same can be said for someone who goes into the casino and bets their house on roulette or the slots.
When i look at the stock market i divide every company into a category.
First, you have the companies that most people have never heard of and hold a low stock value.
I think of these companies as lottery tickets. That is unless you put in the time and effort to research them one by one and are fortunate enough to get some sort of 'inside track' to buy into Apple Computers before they were big, it's a big glob**** of penny shares.
Secondly, i think of products and parts. What is the uniqueness of the product and can it be replaced? For example, Nike is a big company. I would consider it a product because it sells finished items. The product it sells however, is completely replaceable. Someone else will make and market popular shoes if Nike folds. The world will get on with it, but only so long as the company itself isn't providing a central nervousness system to the economy behind the scenes. In terms of parts, like the fibres that are used to make a shirt, if the company that produces the fibres folds, then someone else will be able to step in and produce the fibre. in this case however, i'd ask, who is the fibre company supplying and what is the ownership connection? Money talks, but i wouldn't bet my savings on either company.
Third are the giants. ... and without disrespecting them overly, i still see it a bit like the playground hierarchy. You've got that member of the boys club that is a part of it, but not really safe. that guy everyone can say so long to and that's it. There's the leader as well, but i wouldn't invest in a leader because when a revolution happens, the leader is the one who gets the boot. So i'd look to the second or third in command instead. The one who is still standing after everything goes to hell.
I understand there are university degrees on the stock market, and having that knowledge would certainly aid anyone willing to learn, but i think it's a bit much to think it's necessary in being capable of making a profit.
Coming back to SE now...
They are not the golden god of investments. I do not have any mindset that they are big bucks.
I have simply identified them as a product to begin with. I don't generally favor investing in products but i believe that without mortgaging the house, this is a favourable option for a small bump. As some other posters in this thread have pointed out, SE is more safe than the majority of other companies regarding being stable enough to survive at all. Do said posters have a lot of stock knowledge? No. But i'd say they have looked at the numbers and understand that SE is not in any danger of folding, and not only that, but they can take a lot of damage before they reach a dangerous level. Now, if the economy gets in a real bad way that dwarfs what we've seen so far, then well, that's a whole nother issue well beyond stocks in SE.
IN THAT CASE I RECOMMEND INVESTING IN SILVER INGOTS. YOU'LL WANT TO TRADE THEM FOR FOOD. or maybe better yet, steel. But that depends who you're trading to.
okay, so it's going to survive, or at least its chances of surviving are well enough that if you're not willing to chance this company ... i mean ... there are safer companies out there, but how safe do you want to be? This ones pretty safe. it's also not the kind of company that will ever likely grow in value by 10 times or anything ridiculous. It's a violent stock. A gaming industry stock. it will go up, and it will go down. and up ... and down .. and up ... and down...
Given all of this wall of text, i suppose the information i am looking for is if anyone with said education can point out information that says the gains will be so small as to make it worthless? Or that there won't be gains at all? I recognise that there's more 'complexity' to the market than a graph, but that doesn't marginalize the graph. It's a lot of silly to think that the current stock value of this company will maintain itself at the same amount forever. But SE is going to fluctuate as violently as a video game company will, only, ... it's rock bottom on it's own 7 year curve of ups and downs. Will it develop a new curve over the next 7 years that establishes the current bottom as the top? I don't think a degree in economics is necessary to feel that is highly unlikely.
But hey, i mean, there's other companies out there for 100% certain that will provide a bigger gain than SE in the next 5 years. I just have yet to be educated on any firm ideas that say the current bottom is the new top, or that the next 5 year curve of this company will take the kind of shape that makes SE too marginal to deserve any merit. -
08-04-2012, 12:32 PMAntipikaAgain, such statements is one of the main reason of many retail investors failing at stock exchange.Quote:
As some other posters in this thread have pointed out, SE is more safe than the majority of other companies regarding being stable enough to survive at all. Do said posters have a lot of stock knowledge? No. But i'd say they have looked at the numbers and understand that SE is not in any danger of folding, and not only that, but they can take a lot of damage before they reach a dangerous level. Now, if the economy gets in a real bad way that dwarfs what we've seen so far, then well, that's a whole nother issue well beyond stocks in SE.
You have to be completely blind to believe that something is "more safe than (...)" without having any serious knowledge about the matter. If it was as safe as it sounds, again, lot of investors would buy SE stocks.
Also, buying stock is not as easy as pressing "buy" and hoping that the stock rise and sell when it's high. As a retail investor, you will probably invest in a very small amount of stocks (less than 1K). That mean that management fees, transaction processing fees, currency exchange fees, will eat up lot of your profit (if any) or make your losses bigger.
2nd thing, Forex. I suppose that you live in the USA and will be using USD to purchase stocks and or take your profits in. Forex is extremely complex, very hard to predict and will have a big influence on your profits/loss.
In 2007, USD/JPY was around 120. As of today, USD/JPY is below 80. That alone can make you lose everything and turn a nice 20% profit into a 20% loss.
Stock exchange isn't as easy as you make it sounds. You aren't playing a roller-coaster. Buy low/sell high may work in your Market Wards in Eorzea. That's not how real life work. Sorry to disappoint you.
I'm not going to continue trying to explain you how things works really. Feel free toinvestgamble your money. But please, do not involve anyone else in this. Do not give advices to people who aren't knowledgeable about trading and do not make it sounds as if it was "easy" or "safe" to make profit while not having any knowledge on the matter. There is real money at stake. While advice saying "do not buy or do not invest" will never hurts, the opposite isn't true.
My biggest concern is this really. What you do with your personal money is something you are responsible of. You should also be aware that even brokers making advertisement for investment products aren't allowed to make the whole thing looks easy and use a wording that make the retail user feel that there aren't much risk involved. Recently, many companies got sued in Europe because of these advertisement practices.
If your OP was an ad, it would fall into this category.
Makes the reader feel that risk is lower than it is:
"In any case, i think it's silly to think that SE stock will go down any further. THIS, right now, is the low point. RIGHT NOW."
Talk about huge possible profits without mentioning possible loss:
"Will it go up to a modest $23-24, or as high as $45-50? Tough to say. I think it'll top $30 in the next three years though. That's a 2:1 investment and it could be pretty lucrative if you have enough overhead."
Congratulations on that at least. -
08-04-2012, 01:08 PMNefarioCall^^That part there is really the kind of information i'm looking for.Quote:
Originally Posted by Antipika
But then, neither do i agree with 'don't ask, don't tell'.
what people do with their money is their own business,
but i'll not feel responsible if someone mortgages their house or ruins their life from reading it.
Neither will i neglect the topic, ever, over the my money your money or anything else in that vein,
although perhaps simply for a lack of interest with greater regard to my own family. In that case, yes.
if you want a safe investment, buy raw material that will still retain value after the zombie apocalypse.
Paper money, coin money, banks, stocks, etc etc has no real value unless there is a monetary system to grant it value. if you want a safe investment, fill the storage closet in your house with something you can trade for food after the apocalypse. Again, i'm not going to take responsibility for people with gambling problems. I'd like to, but i've got to prioritize how i use my time before i die.
Anyway, thanks for the info i quoted though.
Our disagreement is really a philosophical or political one, and i never really enjoy having those kinds of arguments, at least not when our core beliefs are so very opposite. haha. I wish to take nothing from your education on the matter however, as it is useful and necessary.
Postedit:
and i mean ... as you say, it's not as easy as clicking buy... LITERALLY.
A person would have to go through the steps necessary to partake in the process to begin with. If they go ahead and throw more than they can afford at something and ruin their life based on this kind of discussion after having to go through the procedure of setting up an account, then i don't think it's reasonable to say it wouldn't have happened anyway... and if they already have an account, aren't they already doing it anyway?
but yes ... achem. >_> I guess we can get into that if you want...