Game Economy and the gil redenomination

I have some suggestions for those of you who are panicking about imagined prices of items in the ARR:

• Buy everything you want NOW. Prices are currently stable and the markets aren't moving much, so you should be able to get good deals.
  
• Craft/farm items in ARR. Sell them for the crazy over-inflated prices. Get rich.
  
• Buy loads of stuff that you think will sell well after ARR, and then sell it for the inflated prices!

If you are so sure that the relative purchasing power of the gil will decline / prices will rise, why not just convert your gil to ITEMS before it happens???

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Originally Posted by Zantetsuken

I have some suggestions for those of you who are panicking about imagined prices of items in the ARR:

• Buy everything you want NOW. Prices are currently stable and the markets aren't moving much, so you should be able to get good deals.
  
• Craft/farm items and sell them for the crazy over-inflated prices you imagine them to be once ARR hits, and then you'll be rich.
  
• Buy loads of stuff that you think will sell well after ARR, and then sell it for the inflated prices!

If you are so sure that the relative purchasing power of the gil will decline / prices will rise, why not just convert your gil to ITEMS before it happens???

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It's going to be funny if loads of people are doing this. The market is going to get flooded with items when the game comes back and prices are going to crash.

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Originally Posted by Zantetsuken

I have some suggestions for those of you who are panicking about imagined prices of items in the ARR:

• Buy everything you want NOW. Prices are currently stable and the markets aren't moving much, so you should be able to get good deals.
  
• Craft/farm items in ARR. Sell them for the crazy over-inflated prices. Get rich.
  
• Buy loads of stuff that you think will sell well after ARR, and then sell it for the inflated prices!

If you are so sure that the relative purchasing power of the gil will decline / prices will rise, why not just convert your gil to ITEMS before it happens???

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This is a very risky strategy that could pay off extremely well, or fail miserably. It's actually one that I personally am banking on.

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Originally Posted by Molly_Millions

This is a very risky strategy that could pay off extremely well, or fail miserably. It's actually one that I personally am banking on.

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I tried this with Gold Ore when they first revamped the recipes... I purchased as much as I could with the anticipation that they would introduce new Gold recipes in the future

They did, but the selling price dropped almost immediately due to a the markets being flooded by vast amounts of mining. As it turns out I couldn't sell it for half of what I bought it for, and ended up giving it all away to a friend. :(

You win some, you lose some, LOL.

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Originally Posted by Matsume

How smart people should act:

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Fixed that for you.

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How SE is afraid you will act:


Hmmm... I wonder why

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Why? Because people are stupid and panic over nothing.

The safest course of action is to do nothing and act normal. the odds of drastic differences are low. Prices will only go up if demand shifts due to different items becoming more/less desireable than they are now. The one thing that will change is arrows which are disappearing- so the consumables market will shift in some way.

buy up items now and you might win, but it also might backfire- you can be some other people will succumb to paranoia as well and do the same thing, so anything could happen- just like a normal economy. It's best not to F around with it most of the time.

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Originally Posted by Alhanelem

buy up items now and you might win, but it also might backfire- you can be some other people will succumb to paranoia as well and do the same thing, so anything could happen- just like a normal economy. It's best not to F around with it most of the time.

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True.

But when people freak out about the gil change - I think they should put their money where their mouth is~

That is, if they are so sure that relative prices will go up.

Of course, if you think relaitve prices will drop (and/or items become easier to get), then its best to sell as much as you can now and stock up on gil.

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Originally Posted by Zantetsuken

I tried this with Gold Ore when they first revamped the recipes... I purchased as much as I could with the anticipation that they would introduce new Gold recipes in the future

They did, but the selling price dropped almost immediately due to a the markets being flooded by vast amounts of mining. As it turns out I couldn't sell it for half of what I bought it for, and ended up giving it all away to a friend. :(

You win some, you lose some, LOL.

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I think if you are doing this with mats, it carries even more risk due to the gathering changes.

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Originally Posted by Punainen

Except all items with short supply and high demand will continue to have exorbitantly high prices, and only get worse for the fact that they will still want to feel like they got 'a couple mil' off the item. And people WILL end up paying it, because they wont have any damn choice.

Prime example while we're comparing real life to video games... Gas... Gas is preposterously overpriced, but guess what? Nobody is 'not buying it'. And the price can and will CONTINUE to rise...and people will continue to buy it. They'll bitch and moan, and the seller will just laugh and reap huge profits 'cause there isn't anything the buyer can really do besides boycott, which they ultimately wont do enough of in unison to have any meaningful impact.

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I don't think you understand economics. Gas is not overpriced. It is priced at a competitive rate.
And if people try to sell things that are overpriced in games, even if they are rare, no one will buy them
If people are willing to buy them, then they aren't overpriced.

If you will pay me $5000 for water that i can get for a $1 that means that if water was sold for $5000 you would consider it fair. If it was sold for $4000 you would get a consumer surplus of $1000 (meaning you are paying less than what your willing to pay)
If other people can't afford it or wouldn't pay more than $3000 for it, they won't buy it, or will buy alternatives.
If they have to buy it to survive, then they will be happy to pay $5000 for it, if that is the cheapest they can get it for.

http://37prime.files.wordpress.com/2...ss_image_1.jpg

the economy is all knowing and powerful we should fear and worship it o___o SPARE ME ECONOMY SPPPPPARRREEE MEEE FOR I AM YOUR LOYAL FOLLOWER!~

http://johnsonmatel.com/2009/March/C...southpark1.jpg

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Originally Posted by Punainen

Except all items with short supply and high demand will continue to have exorbitantly high prices, and only get worse for the fact that they will still want to feel like they got 'a couple mil' off the item. And people WILL end up paying it, because they wont have any damn choice.

Prime example while we're comparing real life to video games... Gas... Gas is preposterously overpriced, but guess what? Nobody is 'not buying it'. And the price can and will CONTINUE to rise...and people will continue to buy it. They'll bitch and moan, and the seller will just laugh and reap huge profits 'cause there isn't anything the buyer can really do besides boycott, which they ultimately wont do enough of in unison to have any meaningful impact.

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Or you know, you can get a Hybrid/EV :P

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Originally Posted by Azurymber

I don't think you understand economics. Gas is not overpriced. It is priced at a competitive rate.
And if people try to sell things that are overpriced in games, even if they are rare, no one will buy them
If people are willing to buy them, then they aren't overpriced.

If you will pay me $5000 for water that i can get for a $1 that means that if water was sold for $5000 you would consider it fair. If it was sold for $4000 you would get a consumer surplus of $1000 (meaning you are paying less than what your willing to pay)
If other people can't afford it or wouldn't pay more than $3000 for it, they won't buy it, or will buy alternatives.
If they have to buy it to survive, then they will be happy to pay $5000 for it, if that is the cheapest they can get it for.

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Gas *is* over priced. OPEC basically does whatever they want, while lobbyists fight any efforts to develop alternatives as the new norm on behalf of companies like BP & Exon.

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Originally Posted by TrystWildkey

The points that I have, he refuses to acknowledge
-Gil-sellers reduced amount of gil will be important for about a day before they restock
-Market ward pricing will not be automatically adjusted
-Sellers will have no real reason to reduce their prices because someone will have enough gil to purchase what they are selling

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1. Gil sellers stock of gil is based on their income vs. their sales. Their income is getting cut by 90%. How do you reason that they will be back to old numerical amounts in "about a day"? They're not magical. They don't turn air into gil. They're forced to use the same sources of income we use, they just grind it incessantly with countless chars. If our income is cut by 90%, so is theirs. If their income is cut by 90%, they would have to increase their efforts tenfold to maintain previous stocks of gil. Even then, they would also be forced to increase their prices (most likely tenfold).

2. You are correct, market ward pricing will not be adjusted automatically. It's up to the players to do that themselves. And if the players don't care whether or not their items sell, they won't change anything. Those are the types of d-bags who are already overpricing all their wares anyways. People who actually want to exchange their items for gil will attempt to find a price which players can afford.

3. You have yet to prove that players will be willing to and able to afford old-world prices. Where does this gil come from?

Do you believe that the new worlds with only new players on them will also have old-world prices? Or is it something magical about the existing servers which will somehow cause everyone to be willing and able to afford a world-wide 10x increase on all player-sold goods and services?

i don't think anything at all will change monetarily other than everything being 10% of what it is now.

this doesn't effect us. it doesn't make gil sellers stronger. it really doesn't do anything at all but reduce everything to 10%. it does nothing. maybe the people who are freaking about this [still] don't quite understand what's happening. if people continue to try and sell shit for weird prices no one will buy it and it will level out.

Maybe this will help... Consider this - just ignore all items up for sale in the wards that don't sell. They effectively don't exist. If gas is, somewhere, priced at $100/gallon, it doesn't change the fact that you can generally buy it for $5/gallon. So the fact that someone lists something for an unobtainable amount - is irrelevant.

I'd like to use previous patches as an example here, every time SE has changed something or added new content to the game the market ALWAYS goes NUT'S about the new items/recipes. Now we are talking about a COMPLETE redesign of the game. YES prices ARE going to change, but NOT because of the re-denomination of Gil, but because they WILL have a different value applied to them by the players. This IS going to happen and re-denomination has nothing to do with it.

Example: Class specific weapons initially sold for much more than they do now from 20-30 mil to about 2-3 mil now(roughly). YES there were people who bought them. but those people were simply rich and impatient and incurred HUGE losses because they were in the minority. If a price is too high, not enough people will buy and someone else will come in with a lower price. Perfect example of supply and demand.

I could even go back further and mention the now dated recipes for weapons and gear, sold for 100k+ at the higher levels, then dropped/shot up in price significantly from the addition of new recipes. Not because of a change in currency but because of changes to the game and a value placed on these items by the players, buyers and sellers both.

So don't blame GIL Re-denomination for you paying too much for an item in 2.0, it's a flawed argument, there is no way to prove that a class specific weapon will be worth even 200-300k to someone in a realm reborn or if it will be worth more. That's like saying your worried about paying more Yen than you would $US for a new model of car that has not been put on the market yet and you have almost no information on.

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Originally Posted by NefGP

Or you know, you can get a Hybrid/EV :P




Gas *is* over priced. OPEC basically does whatever they want, while lobbyists fight any efforts to develop alternatives as the new norm on behalf of companies like BP & Exon.

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no.
OPEC tried to create a cartel oligopoly and failed hardcore when each member tried to illegally undercut each other.

Protip: a lot of US gas comes from Canada, which is not and has never been a member of OPEC.

Gas prices are high becuase people predict their future worth as well as current worth. Its pretty clear that more people around the world are using it, and less of it is becoming available (and its becoming harder to find to extract), so companies price accordingly with the assumption that future exploration costs and drilling costs will increase. All companies realize this, but also realize that they need to keep prices competitive.

Oligopalys don't work, because there is an incentive to undercut each other, and eventually someone does.