Right on the head.
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I can almost guarantee that if they implement this and set X as something reasonable (up to 1000), then the number of people willing to start or resume bird farm will be inversely proportional to X. 99 is borderline ok, 200 is pretty solid, 250 is pretty solid, even at 1000, I would still be a happy Elezen.
It might just be me, but 250 runs per mount sounds ridiculous, let alone 1,000. Assuming 10 minutes per run (including queue times, and that's being generous), that's 166 hours per mount and even at 250 runs it's at a rather high 40 hours per mount. Most people wouldn't bother until it inevitably gets nerfed to something small like 50 tokens after 4.0, where the drop rate will also be increased alongside the time to kill being substantially lower. This isn't even taking into account the Sephirot or Thordan mounts, where it's difficult to clear one, and rather challenging to consistently clear it on DF with the other.
I do have a lower threshold for grinds than most people though, but I'm not sure of anyone who's masochistic enough to run it 1,000 times (managed 100 A1 runs before going mad).
Please! 7 thorden birds. They decided to end the farm before i get one!
run 308 of bismark extreme - saw another bird, rolled a 21. Lost again.
Uh, my Bismarck runs are 5 min each (Roughly an exact battlevoice CD) and Ravana's about 3-4 each. Longer for the other 2 primals I guess (but hey they are more recent). :O
The aim of the suggestion is for SE to give us a failsafe, which, while should be reasonable (and finite), not an easier method of obtainmemt. 250 runs currently grants 79.14% chance to see the mount drop and win the roll. 100 runs is 46.58%. While it's reasonable to cut the unlucky 20.86% of the playerbase a break, I'm not sure its not too easy to give the mount to the unlucky 53.42% (or higher percentage)...
IMO they can always set it high now, then change it later to accomodate drop rate increases.
Numerical sources: 5% drop rate, binomial distribution, MATLAB
Haven't done it much lately since I'm kinda burnt out.. but I'm up to 315 runs, and still haven't won a bird yet.
I got mine at 234 runs. Moving on to Ravana's mount for my twin sis. We're both skewing out chances of winning the roll by passing for each other for an obtainment rate per run of 5%/7 instead of 5%/8.
Goodluck, Dorander!
When I reach my 120 bismarck ex I thought it was a lot of runs
but after saw this thread, I may continue farm for it..
oh and 99 tokens for a mount would be the best thing for unlucky me...
It also seems to me, like the quality of players who are doing the dungeons now are getting worse. I suppose all the decent people have given up, or gotten their birds. Most times in bis ex, the tanks heads collective explode when it comes to needing to swap on the snakes (had one tank who didn't even have provoke and then complained that they couldn't do the content because they didn't want to level gld to 22), people just flat out refuse to use the dragon killers, or players who are magical or ranged jobs who refuse to even get on the whale, therefor negating any damage they could have done, ect, ect, ect.. I could go on. I have more than put in my time on keeping this content filled, giving a fail safe to RNG is necessary. Especially after I've done it 325 times.
Throw us a bone SE.
Dorander, if you want swift efficient runs do what I did:
1) PF
2) ilvl 210 req. Why? Base/avg dps output is higher if the groups avg dps is higher. Also, LB is affected by group's gear if I'm not mistaken. You can only filter by gear, not skill level, sadly.
3) Do not stack 5 bards or 5 machinists. Let 1 (max 2) in for the buffs, make the rest casters and melee. Try to have 1 dragoon and 1 ninja for trick attack and battle littany. Use a 2/1/5 composition.
4) write the scariest (reasonable) PF message you can think of. Effective for scaring away the bad, the lazy and noob sympathizers. (At least on my server)
331 Runs of bismark extreme, rolled a 96 and finally won.. I am never ever ever ever doing that dungeon again. This still needs to be a thing!!!!
As I said before, make it so you can buy the mount for X totems and people would actually feel incentivized to do an occasional run, even if they won't put off relic farm for hardcore bird farm. I got lucky and got it on my 234th run. If you're in the worst 5% of luck range, you could need to do 500+ runs. And we all know why people wouldn't opt to do that over, say, leveling an alt or farming for a relic weapon.
Yeah this is true. Its kind of hilarious that they implement mounts to get people to run more pirmals and not have the content die out but the exact opposite has happened on NA servers. DF is a total bust with ppl dropping after a few runs and farm parties exclude people who need it to be cleared. Speaking form experience I've stopped running Bismark entirely outside of helping fc mates getting clears and have stuck to running ravana for the esos and mount as that is my favorite one of the bunch. I said it once and I'll say it again:
LUCK =/= SKILL
Would loooove to have a dev's/community mod's words on this because the amount of totems I currently have in my possession is too damn high. :|
Also, when you think about it, this forcing people to mindlessly grind for ages for a mount is really only hurting the livelihood of these trials. You know. The whole "I'm not ever stepping foot in there ever again" sentiment after FINALLY getting the mount. (Which is how I feel about Bis and Rav right about now. Seph is coming close. If I could find a Thordan group, I'm sure I'd get tired of that after ~200 runs, too.)
I've come from a game where you have to gamble for everything, where RNG seems to be in everything and I have seen how it killed content and how players choose to quit because of getting burnt out. I don't see can't a 2nd option be implement to encourage meritocracy, why shouldn't people get what they deserve after investing a huge amount of time in it, providing one option which is heavily based on RNG would mean that you can run 500 runs and still get outrolled 10 times and still not get it. When players are burnt out doing the same content again and again they'd never want to step inside there again. I'm currently at 160 runs of bismack and ravana and only seen the whistle dropped once, rolled a 80, but lost to a new comer with 81.
No one really complains about Bismack or ravana weapons back then because you know at least in 10 runs if your weapons doesn't drop you can still get it as long as you don't stop. I have a friend who has done 400runs of seph,thordan,ravana and bismac and have only seen the whistle thrice, never rolled past 60. Its hard for him to stop because he has already invested that kind of hour in it.
No, it is counter-productive, what is the point of burning your players out, keeping old contents relevant is to provide a proper system that works, not one that is based on “ luck”. I have seen so many games fail because they choose to believe grinding an absurd amount of time into something uncertain still works when implemented.
I’ll give you an example let’s say you got your whistle after 300runs (about 2500 minutes if I include queue times on populated servers) would you still grind for the next primal mounts when they come out with the uncertainty that you might never get them despite running 300-400runs?
Problem isn’t how absurd the drop rate but its RNG over RNG, you have to run until the whistle drops & you have to outroll 7 people.
OMG! Dude, we have about the same luck. I won white lanner on my 330th run with a 94.
The fact that it took THREE HUNDRED AND THIRTY runs to get this mount is ABSURD. What about Sephirot and Thordan? Am I in for another 300 runs for those too? Especially when most seph farms dont even clear?
I don't care if it's 99, 150, or even 200 totems. Make the OP's suggestion a thing! Nobody should be at the mercy of RNGesus
RNG? Hahaha! MY FC often do a Bismark Ex Eagle farm. on our 50+th run, we brought a FC member for a clear. Before we went for it, 1 of the member said "On our 1st run, the Eagle will drop n he'll end up winning it" and guess what...
IT DID!!!! AND HE GOT IT!
someone on the reddit forums did 709 ravana,he had an ss to prove it. I'd like to see if greedalox can respond with " Yes. /10char" if he had to go through that lmao.
btw this thread makes sense LOL, https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comme...rd_mounts_ive/
Congrats! I haven't done a single Ravana, Thoridan, Seph EX run (never stepping into bismark EX again so that's moot) since I won my bismark bird. I doubt I even will at this point until tokens can be used to buy the bird like I originally posted. I refuse to waste anymore time in those dungeons just to be screwed over continually by RNG without some kind of fail safe.
Shot in the dark, but bumping this in hopes for catching flare during the live letter.
This should be added. Please do it devs.
The Thordan and Sephirot farms are particularly difficult. I've seen Thordan drop twice and it's stupid hard to get a farm that will stay together longer than two runs. And the Sephirot drop rate must be ridiculously low because despite numerous clears and now possessing all weapons (and two saps) I've only seen that bird drop once.
I've rolled in the high 80s on the Bismark bird and been outrolled each time. Please devs, make this XX totems =1 whistle a thing!
This is definitely is needed.
I support this. 99 is a high number but also very well deserved...
I WANT OFF THORDAN'S WILD RIDE!!!
http://i.imgur.com/4wzolOt.png
This is how many runs of Thordan EX I have done since the start of 3.2
These have been near daily runs for about 4 to 5 hours a shot since the fight usually takes about 8 to 13 minutes depending on the group. (If successful)
I try to aim for 10 clears a day if able.
Please think of the health of your players when adding content like this. I've been taking plenty of breaks but in terms of playing XIV: -this is all I ever do anymore!!!-
The only reason why I continue is because I have already invested so much time into this fight.
I would like to have an end goal or some sort of light in the tunnel to end this madness.
I feel like 100 runs is well worth my investment of 'prolonging' content and as many others have said; I feel like once I get this drop I am NEVER going to want to step a foot in Thordan EX ever again.
I don't want to have this kind of mentality but at this moment it is how I truly feel. :(
Ravy seen so far like 8 of em drop in 170 runs (didnt get)
Bissy I keep farming it with frioends as I got the first one I seen drop but in around 80 runs only dropped twice overall (2nd in a DF run)
Sepp seen 4 drop in err like 90 runs
Thordy seen 2 in 130 runs... seems to be the most dodgy of all
Overall the droprate seems to be like 2-4% - imo much higher than initial pony drop rate.
Also considering the token could've been farmed (and 99 pretty fast reached) before birds were added I don't think they gonna add that option... they will just again nerf droprate until you get one every 15th run average.
Consider yourself very unlucky if you are at 300 runs without a certain bird - for me will be the point I'll ask some friends to do some runs with me (most around have ravana or sepp that i am missing).