Hrmmm so it does... why do all the online resources have the wrong duration timers then? gah! Well that messes everything up...
I think I found a more accurate resource will rewrite my other post...
Edit again: I actually managed to find a nice breakdown of MP costs which should help in determining how much mana you eat up thus how much fire you can actually cast
http://static2.finalfantasyxiv.com/a...aB-_uorXMk.png
Based on this, when you hit Astral Fire 3 (which you should always be at before casting Fire) it will cost you 638 mana. This means based on just my own personal mana pool (and I do not have anywhere near the best gear... but it is getting there) I can cast at the most 5 Fire spells 3670 total Mana - 638 * 5 = 480 -> blizzard 3 @ 79 MP = 401 -> Thunder 2 @ 319 (if you are using thunder 1 it costs even less mana so I have more than enough overhead).
So, lets try this again... Thunder @ 18s
Fire 3 (1.75) - Fire (1.5 - I still don't know how I get a short cast fire here... but I don't complain) - Fire (2.5) - Fire (2.5) - Fire (2.5) - Fire (2.5) - Blizzard 3 (1.75) - Thunder (2.5) = 17.5
So IF you get absolutely 0 procs you would be refreshing thunder a little early, clipping one dot tick. At 1 Proc you would have your DoT dropped off for 1 second, at 2 Procs the DoT would have been off for 2.5 seconds. At that point you have reached argumentatively a point where it is no longer profitable to hit Thunder 1. If you have a larger mana pool (Keeping in mind I am not full darklight yet, nor do I have my relic) and you get 1 extra Fire spell in there, then you are already hitting that breaking point of Thunder 1 with 0 procs.
Keeping in mind a chance of 40% to proc firestarter, after 5 fires your chances of not getting at least 1 proc is very small. I am just not seeing the benefit here, when all you are "sacrificing" for thunder 2 is .5 seconds... You get a higher initial hit (an increase of 20 potency), and you get just enough duration to make up for it. I think this is where I can buy the argument against using Thunder 3 at the moment, since we just don't have a large enough mana pool... yet. When we get enough mana, it will likely be better to use Thunder 3.
Edit 2: And if we start trying to sort out working in a Flare (I might try to napkin math this out to sort out if you should do this single target or not... although double flare would be worth it, I am not totally sold on single flare for single target) you are looking at a 4 second cast time. So at the end of my chain, you would be doing 5 fires, then a Flare, then a transpose (this is feels like around 1 second loss, anyone got a better number here?), then a Blizzard 3 (or maybe blizzard 1?) at full cast time (3.5), and then a thunder (2.5)... you have lost Thunder a LONG time ago (0 procs you are looking at a minimum of 23.75 seconds by this point you are risking a loss even on Thunder 2)
