How many housing lotteries do I have to enter before I win?

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

How am I overestimating when I never stated any sort of number are doing it?

Do some players do it? Yes. I'm not even referring to organized RMT services. I'm talking players selling gil "under the table" to other players. I know of one player that was doing it as recently as 5.5 though I haven't seen him around in Endwalker so maybe he got caught and banned, or maybe he gave up. But I know for certain he had been buying houses to set up gardens and workshops to farm gil to sell casually.

The long term costs for those running workshop farms is less than the cost of setting up those workshops individually because parts no longer needed in one workshop can be transferred to another. There's still some time investment to get sectors unlocked but that's not going to matter to those who are doing this casually almost as a hobby/side job instead of as an organized business.

Is the number using housing to make and sell gil high? No. There's probably no more than a handful per server doing it.

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You might not have overestimated but there are a ton of others who are foaming at the mouth calling every single multiowner an RMT vendor.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

How am I overestimating when I never stated any sort of number are doing it?

Do some players do it? Yes. I'm not even referring to organized RMT services. I'm talking players selling gil "under the table" to other players. I know of one player that was doing it as recently as 5.5 though I haven't seen him around in Endwalker so maybe he got caught and banned, or maybe he gave up. But I know for certain he had been buying houses to set up gardens and workshops to farm gil to sell casually.

The long term costs for those running workshop farms is less than the cost of setting up those workshops individually because parts no longer needed in one workshop can be transferred to another. There's still some time investment to get sectors unlocked but that's not going to matter to those who are doing this casually almost as a hobby/side job instead of as an organized business.

Is the number using housing to make and sell gil high? No. There's probably no more than a handful per server doing it.

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Ah yeah, this was what we are missing in the thread so far. The personal anecdote of one case relates to the assumption everyone an his mother is doing it. Sure go ahead with this conspirency based on non existing facts.

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Originally Posted by Yodada

Ah yeah, this was what we are missing in the thread so far. The personal anecdote of one case relates to the assumption everyone an his mother is doing it. Sure go ahead with this conspirency based on non existing facts.

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Knowing and having proof are two different things.

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Originally Posted by Yodada

Ah yeah, this was what we are missing in the thread so far. The personal anecdote of one case relates to the assumption everyone an his mother is doing it. Sure go ahead with this conspirency based on non existing facts.

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Seems like you need to return to school to improve your reading comprehension. I'm not accusing "everyone and his mother" of doing it.

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Originally Posted by Eph4790

I have entered 8 housing lotteries and I have lost all of them, so can someone tell me how many I gotta enter before I win? Cause losing week after week is starting to annoy me.

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I have entered 25 housing lotteries and I have lost all of them. You don't know being annoyed, but it's the system and the way it is.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

I remember those days. I got my first house and my current house that way.

It's also days long past. It hasn't been possible on any NA servers since Spring 2019 because SE wouldn't take steps to make certain supply kept up with demand and made shell FCs a more reliable way to obtain a house for personal use since the advent of the lottery than buying a personal house directly.

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It didn't have to be days long past. Ishgard release could have been first come first serve with lottery reserved for demolished plots. The upcoming housing release could have been first come first serve. Even assuming the player base has doubled in the past few years, it would still be a better system. Last time I raced to get a house I saw around 4-5 runners in the same subward. So now, that would be around 8-10 runners per 30 plots. Better than 10+ lottery tickets on every single plot. A nice little bonus back in the day was that you could get a house next to your spouse or your fc. Not anymore.

I said this lottery system would be bad and people argued with me multiple times. I said there would be 10x the competition per plot and getting a house would become harder, not easier. Well, enjoy it folks. I can't help but feel schadenfreude whenever I see these complaint threads. Especially the ones asking for increased chances for themselves like they are special (not this OP).

Edit: me before Endwalker, I was pretty close with my prediction lol.

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Originally Posted by Reinha

INB4 "So I have signed up for house lottery 10 times in the past 6 months and each time there have been around 50-80 other players listed on the lottery. How the **** am I supposed to get a house in this game?? At this rate it will take literally years.

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Originally Posted by Eph4790

I have entered 8 housing lotteries and I have lost all of them, so can someone tell me how many I gotta enter before I win? Cause losing week after week is starting to annoy me.

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Originally Posted by Reinha

It didn't have to be days long past. Ishgard release could have been first come first serve with lottery reserved for demolished plots. The upcoming housing release could have been first come first serve. Even assuming the player base has doubled in the past few years, it would still be a better system. Last time I raced to get a house I saw around 4-5 runners in the same subward. So now, that would be around 8-10 runners per 30 plots. Better than 10+ lottery tickets on every single plot. A nice little bonus back in the day was that you could get a house next to your spouse or your fc. Not anymore.

I said this lottery system would be bad and people argued with me multiple times. I said there would be 10x the competition per plot and getting a house would become harder, not easier. Well, enjoy it folks. I can't help but feel schadenfreude whenever I see these complaint threads. Especially the ones asking for increased chances for themselves like they are special (not this OP).

Edit: me before Endwalker, I was pretty close with my prediction lol.

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And yet, in a twisted sort of way, you are indeed arguing for a system that favors you. The reason why there are so many more people trying for houses is that the lottery system makes it easier for them to participate. The population of players that want houses, is probably quite large. First-Come-First-Served restricted a significant number of players from participating. It's much easier now, with the lottery system in place, for all players who might be interested in owning a house to actually try for one. The real solution to the housing demand is to add more houses. A LOT more houses.

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Originally Posted by Eraden

It's much easier now, with the lottery system in place, for all players who might be interested in owning a house to actually try for one.

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Easier to try but much harder to win. People know this, which is why they are complaining not only about the lack of houses, but also about the lottery system itself. The waiting time, the amount of bids and the frustration of losing on a weekly basis. Players wanted everyone to have the same chance of getting a house but now they complain about not being able to increase their chances at the expense of others. All of these complaints are consequences of making the system more accessible and equal.

If this really is a better system, people should probably stop complaining about the lottery before Square goes and changes it for the worse.

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Originally Posted by Reinha

Easier to try but much harder to win. People know this, which is why they are complaining not only about the lack of houses, but also about the lottery system itself. The waiting time, the amount of bids and the frustration of losing on a weekly basis. Players wanted everyone to have the same chance of getting a house but now they complain about not being able to increase their chances at the expense of others. All of these complaints are consequences of making the system more accessible and equal.

If this really is a better system, people should probably stop complaining about the lottery before Square goes and changes it for the worse.

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People will always find a reason to complain since it's human nature, and yet that does not detracts from the fact that lottery is a much fairer way compared to FCFS since it allows a higher population to get their foot into the door as opposed to FCFS where the majority of players are denied opportunities to bid for plots due to timing issues since plots typically only become available either during the NA wee hours or the middle of work/classes for EU players.

FCFS also means placard spamming which leads to mass botting where honest players are at a major disadvantage.

When the new wards drop Large,medium and Prime plots are going to have the highest number of bidders. While the Small less desired plots will have zero or only a few bidders. If you want a house now and dont mind location go with the small less desired plots its your best shot. If you want a large, medium or prime plot then be ready for heavy competition. Waiting until near the end of the bidding period to bid is a good idea by then most bidders will be locked into their choice.

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Originally Posted by Reinha

It didn't have to be days long past. Ishgard release could have been first come first serve with lottery reserved for demolished plots. The upcoming housing release could have been first come first serve. Even assuming the player base has doubled in the past few years, it would still be a better system. Last time I raced to get a house I saw around 4-5 runners in the same subward. So now, that would be around 8-10 runners per 30 plots. Better than 10+ lottery tickets on every single plot. A nice little bonus back in the day was that you could get a house next to your spouse or your fc. Not anymore.

I said this lottery system would be bad and people argued with me multiple times.

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FCFS gave an advantage to those that can login when the servers come up.
Placard spamming** gave an advantage to people that can dedicate hours of their life to spamming a placard against dozens of people probably using clicking bots (who also had a clear advantage).
Lottery doesn't give an advantage to anyone.

So, if you feel into the FCFS/Placard spamming groups, then from a completely self-centered standpoint, the lottery system is bad - for you.

However, on the whole, and for the rest of the playerbase - the lottery system is superior. It was never designed to resolve the housing shortage. It was designed to mitigate advantages for some and disadvantages for others.

** Placard spamming was really just lottery for those willing to stand there and click (or have a bot click) the placard. 100 people present at the placard? Probably a 1/100 chance of winning.

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Originally Posted by Reinha

It didn't have to be days long past. Ishgard release could have been first come first serve with lottery reserved for demolished plots. The upcoming housing release could have been first come first serve. Even assuming the player base has doubled in the past few years, it would still be a better system. Last time I raced to get a house I saw around 4-5 runners in the same subward. So now, that would be around 8-10 runners per 30 plots. Better than 10+ lottery tickets on every single plot. A nice little bonus back in the day was that you could get a house next to your spouse or your fc. Not anymore.

I said this lottery system would be bad and people argued with me multiple times. I said there would be 10x the competition per plot and getting a house would become harder, not easier. Well, enjoy it folks. I can't help but feel schadenfreude whenever I see these complaint threads. Especially the ones asking for increased chances for themselves like they are special (not this OP).

Edit: me before Endwalker, I was pretty close with my prediction lol.

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As many have already said, FCFS only favors people who can be up and active the moment the servers went live. Caused lobby errors and crashes and a lot of other headaches for the devs.

It also gave rise to people using third party software to bot their way to homes. Bots had become sophisticated enough to plot out courses to a desire plot, auto mount or auto pop speed boosts, and auto relocate or purchase a home. Some even had hacking tools enabled, allowing them to merely teleport to the house in question.

FCFS was fantastic for people reselling houses for gil or RMT. Not so much for everyone else.

Not to mention FCFS was a massive disadvantage to PS players who had longer load times for porting into wards etc even IF you don't account for bots and plug ins and stuff that no one should be using but if they do, PS players can't use at all. And when wards opened and it required a game update, even if it let us update hours before the game went live, some people also don't have the BEST internet, and it can take hours to download a new patch, meaning they aren't always done right at launch time, another disadvantage.
So have I lost 26 lotteries now? Yes. Am I bitching about it to my friends? Hell yeah. Do I think the new wards are going to fix things? Hell no. But I certainly have no question this lottery is much better then FCFS. At least I have a chance. I wouldn't stand a chance in FCFS with my internet, ping, and load times.
Maybe I'll get a nice little Shiro beach front small when the new wards drop. We will have to see.

I say ranging from 1 more lottery or 100 more... or more than that.

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Originally Posted by dspguy

FCFS gave an advantage to those that can login when the servers come up.
Placard spamming** gave an advantage to people that can dedicate hours of their life to spamming a placard against dozens of people probably using clicking bots (who also had a clear advantage).
Lottery doesn't give an advantage to anyone.

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This is incorrect. Lottery has a different advantage for shell FCs. With the new ward splits, people that created shell FCs are able to bid up to 8 times per server per account if all they care about is owning a particular plot.

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Originally Posted by justausername

So have I lost 26 lotteries now? Yes. Am I bitching about it to my friends? Hell yeah.

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Why are you bitching if your own chances are better? You should feel thankful every time you pick up your money since you got to participate and that's all that matters according to you.

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Originally Posted by Kitsu

This is incorrect. Lottery has a different advantage for shell FCs. With the new ward splits, people that created shell FCs are able to bid up to 8 times per server per account if all they care about is owning a particular plot.

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I suppose in certain circumstances, one can find advantages and disadvantages to any system. Back when we had an entirely new housing area, this wasn't a problem. For people late to the game, they are at a slight disadvantage.

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Originally Posted by Eph4790

I'm going to keep participating in lotteries when available until I win.

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Hello, it's me again. I just wanted to offer my condolences for your lost bid this cycle. Keep your chin up, keep practicing, and you'll earn the house one day soon.

I moved to dynamis dc on seraph and immediately obtained a house when they opened the plots. No bids besides me lol. and i won without hassle

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Originally Posted by Reinha

Why are you bitching if your own chances are better? You should feel thankful every time you pick up your money since you got to participate and that's all that matters according to you.

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Pardon? My chances are better? Where the heck did I or anyone ever say my chances are better? Participating isn't all that matters. Winning is what matters. And so far, I haven't. The heck are you reading?

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Originally Posted by justausername

Pardon? My chances are better? Where the heck did I or anyone ever say my chances are better? Participating isn't all that matters. Winning is what matters. And so far, I haven't. The heck are you reading?

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Right here:

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Originally Posted by justausername

But I certainly have no question this lottery is much better then FCFS. At least I have a chance. I wouldn't stand a chance in FCFS with my internet, ping, and load times.

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When there are 10X the amount of participants but not 10X winners, winning just became harder than before. But you like the new system. So why do you bitch about losing? The increased competition is a feature, not a bug.

The increase in competition isn't just players finally getting a chance to participate, either. Waiting in a login queue made it nearly impossible to get houses for alts during the release of FCFS wards. Now it's not an issue anymore. I'm bidding with 7 characters myself and managed to win a small, then a medium on my alts. Imagine it, free companies and players seeking personals might have lost several bids to people's alts lol.

It is completely random there is no answer to that haha

I have a friend that has been trying to win a house since LONG before lottery existed- placard clicked dozens of house and lost... She has bid in every single lottery round since it began and still has not won - its seriously gross and i feel so bad for her!
I won my first lottery.

It is completely random there is no answer to that

I get what the OP is saying in that they are thinking it's like Gacha mechanics where you get a pity roll after so many. I believe someone already said this, but it's impossible to have a pity system on the lottery because more than one hit the pity count and bid on the same property, they can't both win it.

The housing lottery is exactly that: a lottery. So chances of winning, unfortunately, are like any other lottery. Once you get over 100 participants on a plot, chances become less than 1%. Persistence, opportunity, luck are the only things that can help you. To put things into perspective, you have a better chance entering the Jumbo Cactpot each week, buying only one ticket, and trying to hit 1st place because that lottery allows for multiple winners choosing the same 4 numbers.

Not to discourage, I'm just saying don't get worked up about losing because there will be other plots to open up and more chances granted. Just keep entering each time and don't make it a major part of your enjoyment of this game. Treat it like the Jumbo Cactpot where if you win great, but if not, oh well, let's try again next time. Keep going and luck will be on your side eventually. Don't give up.

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Originally Posted by edgefu

I get what the OP is saying in that they are thinking it's like Gacha mechanics where you get a pity roll after so many. I believe someone already said this, but it's impossible to have a pity system on the lottery because more than one hit the pity count and bid on the same property, they can't both win it.

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This would be ideal for people who bid consistently on one plot, or one type of plot. It'd reward the persistence you're mentioning because its hard to miss a lottery if you actually want a house. It would simply pit you against people who have lost those opportunities together. As someone who's failed to relocate for at least 3 bids, I'd appreciate this even if that seems self-serving.

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Originally Posted by edgefu

Not to discourage, I'm just saying don't get worked up about losing because there will be other plots to open up and more chances granted. ... Don't give up.

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I think the largest issue is everyone participating in this system is treating this as if it all isn't totally arbitrary. A lot of people are looking at this from a perspective of: "this is a fact of life, this is the way it needs to be" when in reality, it isn't. It's just SE either fumbling the hell out of it or sticking to a stupid design choice out of stubbornness. Kind of like how they handle a lot of other things that they could handle different, but doesn't mesh well with their image problem.

To reiterate: if every person who wanted a house; instead bought an apartment, decorated it etc. the server would not crumble. Even places like Island Sanctuary took a bit of a hit from everyone being in them, but it was managed well enough that in worst case scenarios you'd fail to enter a couple of times and get in within a minute. I believe in object permanence, so unless there are thousands and thousands of multi-boxers logging in hellbent on decorating multiple homes simultaneously at all hours of the day, instanced housing would pan out the exact same way. People would log in, decorate, play, log out; the same people who are currently logged in, etc. Especially if, like apartments, those houses don't demolish just because you haven't been inside of it for over a month.

tl;dr, they need to add instanced housing, because there is objectively no good reason not to do so; since it doesn't necessitate the loss of wards, and doesn't affect anyone else's gameplay other than depreciate housing for people who intend to RMT or circumvent bans on housing sales via shell FCs. Also because they have the resources, and can do it. The assumption that the only reason they haven't is because they can't, is giving people ((SE)) who can't even make unique armor sets on a level equal to hobbyist interest, despite the sheer amount they make) WAY too much credit. There's either very clearly a severe budget problem, a lack of hearing user-feedback, or apathy.

Anyway, you're right, nobody should give up; but I believe everyone's frustration is 100% justified. I just think it's misdirected. There's nothing wrong with people being passionate about how they get to spend their leisure time (or rather how they dont get to); and when it's affecting them I think it's fine for them to speak up about it.