My point was that it's hard to practice anything when your two states of living are:
1. Manual labor
2. Beatings
It's a neat idea, don't get me wrong. Just a bit flimsy.
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Do we have reason to assume the Garleans treat the Ala Mhigans like this? In the introductory Garlean cutscene in 2.0, Nero asks where two of the soldiers are from, and one says Ala Mhigo. Now of course he was a spy and killed on the spot, but it clearly indicates Ala Mhigans are allowed to be in the Garlean military, at least. I never got the impression Garlemald was so super evil that they literally enslaved every individual person, but it's possible I missed it.
Eh, I'd be surprised if they didn't get any down time (or, perhaps more likely, some people snuck off anyways).
Though even if that, specifically, is flimsy, there's plenty of other reasons to incorporate dancer as a job next expansion, rather than believing that there's no way at all that they're getting in.
Regarding the actual topic of the thread... DNC might have rogue or pugilist skills as a cross-class option, but a snowball has a better chance in Ul'dah than the chance that it would actually branch off from it.
My assumption is that any nation conquered by Garlemald has two options for its citizens: assimilate or suffer. Garlemald's military is largely comprised of conscripted recruits from other nations that the Garleans have conquered, and in the 3.4 MSQ: (see inside spoiler tag)
the Griffin specifically says that the people they left behind in Ala Mhigo are subject to beatings and manual labor. It's entirely possible he was being hyperbolic but it's not outside the realm of possibility given how mustache-twirlingly evil Garleans tend to come off.
Honestly, I think Dancer will be in the new expac, though I don't think the woman in red in the trailer is a dancer herself. I just think, in my own personal opinion, that there's less convoluted ways to introduce dancer.
i would love it to be a dancer. But i am sure it's not. I think a lotta folks will be disappointed. I mean to me, its obvious derplander is a monk sparring a monk...the last expansion he was a dragoon with a dragoon.
Plus, she is doing perfect moves that are synonymous to the Tibetan monks (me spending a year with Tibetan monks as part of my masters degree I can pretty much see this. clearly). So ....unless the FFXIV dancer job now employs Tibetan monk moves....that's a monk.
Even if branching Jobs were a thing, having Dancer branch of Rogue would be terrible. It would have the same DPS combo (Aeolian Edge), the same debuff combo (Dancing Edge), and the same DoT combo (Shadow Fang), so its core playstyle wouldn't even be different. On top of that, you'd get nearly all the benefits of the base class (Goad, Trick) without having to bring another NIN, so comps would most likely have NIN-DNC reserved by default (even more so if DNC were to come with its own party support buffs).
I seriously doubt that the Garleans treat their conquered nations in this manner unless the people of those nations are constantly and determinedly belligerent. It takes WAY more manpower to go all Big Brother on a nation than it does to pretty much tell them, "Okay, keep on doing what you all were doing - but understand that we are now in charge. If we say jump, you jump. If you try to rebel, we come down on you like a ton of bricks."
We know that Garleans regularly conscript citizens of conquered nations to use in their armies, but we don't have anything to support the theory that they systematically oppress those nations. In fact, we have evidence to the contrary: one of the plot points brought up late in the 3.4 MSQs is that the new generation of Ala Mihgans might be resistant to Garlean liberation as they grew up under Garlean rule. It seems to me that if Ala Mihgo was a giant concentration camp, even the new kids would want to lash out against their oppressors.
Another reason that this will most likely be the case, with Garleans mostly leaving the Ala Mihgans to their own devices, is that it will be a whole lot easier to justify the Warrior of Light striding down main street in full armor. If Ala Mihgo is packed full of soldiers like a Castrum and they all ignore the WoL, that would be pretty silly - and I definitely get the impression that the city is likely going to be a "safe home", like Ishgard or any of the other main cities.
tl;dr, it is very unlikely that the Garleans have forbidden fun in Ala Mihgo, or that they have them all chained up and breaking rocks like slaves. It is far more likely that after the occupation, life goes on for the Ala Mihgans, and they all pretty much do the same kind of things they did before the occupation. Signs of rebellion would be greeted with harsh punishments, but in the long run Garlemand wants the people of Ala Mihgo to become good Garlean citizens. That will not happen if they are constantly crushing them under heel.
Regardless, my other points still stand. It doesn't make sense for Garlemand to oppress Ala Mihgo when it takes far less resources simply to govern them. The citizens will be allowed to participate in entertainment (hence Dancer will be a viable way to hide combat training). It will not be a nation-wide chain gang.
As was implied by the cutscenes I mentioned, I predict that part of the challenge of liberating Ala Mihgo will be in convincing the youth of the nation that it even NEEDS to be liberated - something that wouldn't be the case if said youth were treated as slaves.
What you say is entirely possible. What I say is also entirely possible. Or it could be a combination of both. The Garleans could be raising the latest generation of Ala Mhigan youth to be pro-Garlemald while systematically oppressing those who were alive before the occupation to show the youths how those who defy the Empire live, while showering those who pledge loyalty with luxuries and benefits. It's not exactly something that's unheard of even in our own history.
Everything is speculation until we see it for certain.