Dawntrail release date

I really think the only reason they're being cagey about the date is what happened with Endwalker. YoshiP seemed to feel incredibly guilty about the 2 week delay Endwalker had, knowing that so many people had taken time off to enjoy it, and would be unable to adjust their plans.

I think it simply comes down to him not wanting there to be any chance of that happening again, so they're not going to commit to a date or even a month until they know for sure. Might still be June, might be later, but they want to make sure.

6.58 is coming in March, so we can assume DT will come out around July/August if they follow their 4 month patch cycle.

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Originally Posted by DrForester

I really think the only reason they're being cagey about the date is what happened with Endwalker.

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Well yes, that is what they said and nobody is disputing that. But they said they have a date in mind that they are working towards, even if they aren't sure they can achieve that date. What we've been doing is guessing what that date is.

History just tells us they like to aim for June if it's possible, although sometimes this is achieved by putting a lot of pressure on the developers (especially in Shadowbringers). We know they don't want to put as much pressure on them anymore because that was the reason patch cycle durations increased, but how can they resist their historic, favorite month?

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Originally Posted by Rehayem

6.58 is coming in March, so we can assume DT will come out around July/August if they follow their 4 month patch cycle.

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I don't think you understand what the 4 month patch cycle means. When we say 4 month patch cycle, we mean the distance between major patches ie. 6.1 and 6.2. We do not mean the distance between minor and major patch ie. 6.15 and 6.2.

So the 4 month cycle would be on the basis of the distance between 6.5 and 7.0, but there is a bit of a difference for expansion releases, where they want to drag it out for longer, so it's more like a distance of 4 months between 6.55 (part 2 of the MSQ) and expansion release.

But overall, there is not much consistency between final patches and expansion release in history. Just that there is a lot longer than between other major patches.

• 2.5-3.0: 5 months
• 3.5-4.0: 5 months
• 4.5-5.0: 5 months and 20 days
• 5.5-6.0: 8 months
• 6.5-7.0: so far been 4 months and 11 days

If we do final patch distance to expansion.

• 2.57-3.0: 1 month
• 3.57-4.0: 2 months
• 4.58-5.0: 1 month and 13 days
• 5.58-6.0: 5 months and 18 days
• 6.57-7.0: so far been 0 days

So it looks like the only precedent for taking longer than 5 months between the last major patch (.5) and expansion release is Endwalker. But we know they have increased their breaks and holidays and that there is a summer release. So this is obviously going to be longer than the 5 months of the past. But history is still relevant here.

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Originally Posted by DrForester

I really think the only reason they're being cagey about the date is what happened with Endwalker. YoshiP seemed to feel incredibly guilty about the 2 week delay Endwalker had, knowing that so many people had taken time off to enjoy it, and would be unable to adjust their plans.

I think it simply comes down to him not wanting there to be any chance of that happening again, so they're not going to commit to a date or even a month until they know for sure. Might still be June, might be later, but they want to make sure.

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And if they wait too long to announce a date, people won't be able to take time off anyway because it's not advanced notice enough for their employer. LOL

I think it will be mid to late June. The furthest I will go out is late July but, I am betting it’s June. They love the month of June as most of their expansions began in June.

6.58 is the last minor patch we will get and waiting all the way to July/August will be way to long of a wait for 7.0

My feelings are if we were getting a June release they would have announced it at fanfest. My current thought is they are still figuring out if they can get it out in July or if it is going to get pushed to August. I'd like to be wrong and see it earlier though. I imagine we'll get a date and the start of the media tour in the next LL whenever that happens.

I have a wedding on the 13th July and you can bet that it will be either then or something exciting will be happening and I have to go to a hipster wedding...not my thing at all. I will probably melt and be making all kinds of excuses to get home lol :D I hope it is later or before.

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Originally Posted by Jeeqbit

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There's a reason why I said "if" in my statement, knowing well how the patch cycles work and the wait time between expansions. One doesn't need to be playing from ARR to research the wait time. Let me have my copium.

If its 4 months for patches, then should come out in June.

I think early Summer is the goal. Heavensward and Stormblood had June official release dates and Shadowbringers was officially released first week of July so it would make sense for them to want to release Dawntrail around the same time.

The announced "summer release" gives them leeway if something comes up that delays the release longer.